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@kforeman
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N <- 56
O <- c( 9, 39, 11, 9, 15, 8, 26, 7, 6, 20,
13, 5, 3, 8, 17, 9, 2, 7, 9, 7,
16, 31, 11, 7, 19, 15, 7, 10, 16, 11,
5, 3, 7, 8, 11, 9, 11, 8, 6, 4,
10, 8, 2, 6, 19, 3, 2, 3, 28, 6,
1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0)
E <- c( 1.4, 8.7, 3.0, 2.5, 4.3, 2.4, 8.1, 2.3, 2.0, 6.6,
4.4, 1.8, 1.1, 3.3, 7.8, 4.6, 1.1, 4.2, 5.5, 4.4,
10.5,22.7, 8.8, 5.6,15.5,12.5, 6.0, 9.0,14.4,10.2,
4.8, 2.9, 7.0, 8.5,12.3,10.1,12.7, 9.4, 7.2, 5.3,
18.8,15.8, 4.3,14.6,50.7, 8.2, 5.6, 9.3,88.7,19.6,
3.4, 3.6, 5.7, 7.0, 4.2, 1.8)
x <- c(16,16,10,24,10,24,10, 7, 7,16,
7,16,10,24, 7,16,10, 7, 7,10,
7,16,10, 7, 1, 1, 7, 7,10,10,
7,24,10, 7, 7, 0,10, 1,16, 0,
1,16,16, 0, 1, 7, 1, 1, 0, 1,
1, 0, 1, 1,16,10)
A <- structure(c(0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0,
1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0,
0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0,
1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0,
0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0,
0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1,
0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), .Dim = c(N, N))
init <-
list(
list(
alpha0 = 0.0,
alpha1 = 0.0,
beta1 = rep(0, 56),
tau = 1.0,
p = 0.5
)
)
# num obs
N <- 56
# observed
O <- c( 9, 39, 11, 9, 15, 8, 26, 7, 6, 20,
13, 5, 3, 8, 17, 9, 2, 7, 9, 7,
16, 31, 11, 7, 19, 15, 7, 10, 16, 11,
5, 3, 7, 8, 11, 9, 11, 8, 6, 4,
10, 8, 2, 6, 19, 3, 2, 3, 28, 6,
1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0)
# expected
E <- c( 1.4, 8.7, 3.0, 2.5, 4.3, 2.4, 8.1, 2.3, 2.0, 6.6,
4.4, 1.8, 1.1, 3.3, 7.8, 4.6, 1.1, 4.2, 5.5, 4.4,
10.5,22.7, 8.8, 5.6,15.5,12.5, 6.0, 9.0,14.4,10.2,
4.8, 2.9, 7.0, 8.5,12.3,10.1,12.7, 9.4, 7.2, 5.3,
18.8,15.8, 4.3,14.6,50.7, 8.2, 5.6, 9.3,88.7,19.6,
3.4, 3.6, 5.7, 7.0, 4.2, 1.8)
# covariate
x <- c(16,16,10,24,10,24,10, 7, 7,16,
7,16,10,24, 7,16,10, 7, 7,10,
7,16,10, 7, 1, 1, 7, 7,10,10,
7,24,10, 7, 7, 0,10, 1,16, 0,
1,16,16, 0, 1, 7, 1, 1, 0, 1,
1, 0, 1, 1,16,10)
# adjacency matrix
A <- structure(c(0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
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0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), .Dim = c(N, N))
# diagonal (counts of neighbors)
D <- rowSums(A)
# sparse version of A
A_sparse <- which(A == 1, arr.ind=TRUE)
A_N <- dim(A_sparse)[1]
A1 <- A_sparse[,1]
A2 <- A_sparse[,2]
# how many linearly spaced values of p [0,1] to take for log(determinant(D - p * A))
p_samples <- 1000
// Author: Kyle Foreman (kforeman@post.harvard.edu)
// Date: 24 February 2013
// attempt to replicate GeoBUGS "lip cancer" CAR example (http://www.openbugs.info/Manuals/GeoBUGS/Examples/Scotland.html)
// data from http://www.openbugs.info/Manuals/GeoBUGS/Examples/Scotlanddata.html (with adjacency matrix A converted to dense)
// following GMRF formulation of CAR from section 2.1 of http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2724012/
data {
int<lower=1> N; // number of areas
int O[N]; // observed cases
vector[N] E; // expected cases
vector[N] x; // covariate (pct agric)
matrix[N,N] A; // area adjacency matrix
}
transformed data {
matrix[N,N] D; // diagonal matrix with d_ii = sum(c_ij)
vector[N] zeros; // zeros for mean of MVN
for (i in 1:N)
for (j in 1:N)
D[i,j] <- if_else(i==j, sum(row(A, i)), 0.0);
for (i in 1:N)
zeros[i] <- 0;
}
parameters {
real alpha0; // intercept
real alpha1; // coefficient on covariate
vector[N] beta1; // area-specific random effect (CAR)
real<lower=1e-5> tau; // precision of CAR
real<lower=0,upper=1> p;// strength of spatial correlation
}
transformed parameters {
real sigma_sq;
sigma_sq <- 1.0 / tau;
}
model {
// declarations
real beta1_mean;
vector[N] beta1_stz;
vector[N] log_mu;
// priors on model parameters
// no explicit prior on alpha0 (improper flat prior)
alpha1 ~ normal(0.0, sqrt(1e5));
tau ~ gamma(0.5, 0.0005);
// Ben's MVN replacement
lp__ <- lp__ - 0.5 / sigma_sq * (beta1' * D * beta1 - p * (beta1' * A * beta1));
lp__ <- lp__ - 0.5 * N * log(sigma_sq) + 0.5 * log_determinant(D - p * A);
// impose sum-to-zero constraint on CAR
beta1_mean <- mean(beta1);
beta1_stz <- beta1 - beta1_mean;
// model prediction
log_mu <- log(E) + alpha0 + alpha1 * x + beta1_stz;
// likelihood
O ~ poisson_log(log_mu);
}
// Author: Kyle Foreman (kforeman@post.harvard.edu)
// Date: 24 February 2013
// attempt to replicate GeoBUGS "lip cancer" CAR example (http://www.openbugs.info/Manuals/GeoBUGS/Examples/Scotland.html)
// data from http://www.openbugs.info/Manuals/GeoBUGS/Examples/Scotlanddata.html (with adjacency matrix A converted to dense)
// following GMRF formulation of CAR from section 2.1 of http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2724012/
data {
int<lower=1> N; // number of areas
int O[N]; // observed cases
vector[N] E; // expected cases
vector[N] x; // covariate (pct agric)
matrix[N,N] A; // area adjacency matrix
}
transformed data {
matrix[N,N] D; // diagonal matrix with d_ii = sum(c_ij)
vector[N] zeros; // zeros for mean of MVN
for (i in 1:N)
for (j in 1:N)
D[i,j] <- if_else(i==j, sum(row(A, i)), 0.0);
for (i in 1:N)
zeros[i] <- 0.0;
}
parameters {
real alpha0; // intercept
real alpha1; // coefficient on covariate
vector[N] beta1; // area-specific random effect (CAR)
real<lower=1e-5> tau; // precision of CAR
real<lower=0,upper=1> p;// strength of spatial correlation
}
transformed parameters {
real sigma_sq;
sigma_sq <- 1.0 / tau;
}
model {
// declarations
matrix[N,N] Tau; // precision matrix for CAR
real beta1_mean;
vector[N] beta1_stz;
vector[N] log_mu;
// priors on model parameters
// no explicit prior on alpha0 (improper flat prior)
alpha1 ~ normal(0.0, sqrt(1e5));
tau ~ gamma(0.5, 0.0005);
// precision matrix
Tau <- tau * (D - p * A);
// CAR model using precision version of MVN
beta1 ~ multi_normal_prec(zeros, Tau);
// impose sum-to-zero constraint on CAR
beta1_mean <- mean(beta1);
beta1_stz <- beta1 - beta1_mean;
// model prediction
log_mu <- log(E) + alpha0 + alpha1 * x + beta1_stz;
// likelihood
O ~ poisson_log(log_mu);
}
# Author: Kyle Foreman (kforeman@post.harvard.edu)
# Date: 13 Sep 2013
# Purpose: compare different parameterizations of the CAR model
library(rstan)
# set working directory if not done already...
if (Sys.getenv('USER') == 'kforeman') setwd('~/Dropbox/USCOD/models/LipCancer')
# data
model_data <- new.env()
sys.source('lip_cancer.data.R', model_data)
# initial values
source('lip_cancer.init.R')
# lp__ method
if (TRUE) # this is so you can compile separately from sampling - makes it so you can better compare times and rerun more efficiently
lp_method_dso <- stan(file='lp_method.stan', init=init, data=model_data, iter=1, chains=1)
if (TRUE)
lp_method_time <- system.time(lp_method_fit <-
stan(
fit = lp_method_dso,
data = model_data,
init = init,
chains = 1,
iter = 10e3
)
)
# precision matrix method
if (TRUE)
multi_normal_prec_dso <- stan(file='multi_normal_prec.stan', init=init, data=model_data, iter=1, chains=1)
if (TRUE)
multi_normal_prec_time <- system.time(multi_normal_prec_fit <-
stan(
fit = multi_normal_prec_dso,
data = model_data,
init = init,
chains = 1,
iter = 10e3
)
)
# sparse data
sparse_data <- new.env()
sys.source('lip_cancer_sparse.data.R', sparse_data)
# sparse method
if (TRUE)
sparse_dso <- stan(file='sparse_lp.stan', init=init, data=sparse_data, iter=1, chains=1)
if (TRUE)
sparse_time <- system.time(sparse_fit <-
stan(
fit = sparse_dso,
data = sparse_data,
init = init,
chains = 1,
iter = 10e3
)
)
# compare parameter values
params <- data.frame(cbind(summary(multi_normal_prec_fit)$summary[,1], summary(lp_method_fit)$summary[,1], summary(sparse_fit)$summary[,1]))
names(params) <- c('multi_normal_prec', 'lp_method', 'sparse')
print(params)
# compare sampling time
time <- data.frame(t(c(multi_normal_prec_time['user.self'], lp_method_time['user.self'], sparse_time['user.self'])))
names(time) <- c('multi_normal_prec', 'lp_method', 'sparse')
print(time)
// Author: Kyle Foreman (kforeman@post.harvard.edu)
// Date: 12 Sep 2013
// GeoBUGS "lip cancer" CAR example (http://www.openbugs.info/Manuals/GeoBUGS/Examples/Scotland.html)
// following GMRF formulation of CAR from section 2.1 of http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2724012/
data {
int<lower=1> N; // number of areas
int O[N]; // observed cases
vector[N] E; // expected cases
vector[N] x; // covariate (pct agric)
int<lower=1> A_N; // number of non-zero elements of adjacency matrix
int A1[A_N]; // sparse representation of adjacency matrix
int A2[A_N]; // sparse representation of adjacency matrix
vector[N] D; // counts of neighbors for each
int p_samples; // number of samples of p to take
}
transformed data {
vector[N] zeros; // zeros for mean of MVN
matrix[N,N] DpA; // D - p * A
vector[p_samples + 1] ldet_DpA; // sampled values of log(determinant(D - p * A))
for (i in 1:N)
zeros[i] <- 0.0;
# the diagonal of D - p * A is just count(i_neighbors)
for (i in 1:N)
for (j in 1:N)
DpA[i,j] <- if_else(i==j, D[i], 0.0);
# calculate the off diagonal of D - p * A for each value of p
for (i in 1:(p_samples + 1)) {
for (j in 1:A_N)
DpA[A1[j], A2[j]] <- -1.0 * ((i - 1.0) / p_samples);
# store the sampled log(determinant(D - p * A))
ldet_DpA[i] <- log_determinant(DpA);
}
}
parameters {
real alpha0; // intercept
real alpha1; // coefficient on covariate
vector[N] beta1; // area-specific random effect (CAR)
real<lower=1e-5> tau; // precision of CAR
real<lower=0,upper=1> p;// strength of spatial correlation
}
transformed parameters {
real sigma_sq;
sigma_sq <- 1.0 / tau;
}
model {
// declarations
real beta1_mean;
vector[N] beta1_stz;
vector[N] log_mu;
row_vector[N] beta1t_A;
row_vector[N] beta1t_D;
real ldet_left;
real ldet_right;
int idx;
// priors on model parameters
// no explicit prior on alpha0 (improper flat prior)
alpha1 ~ normal(0.0, sqrt(1e5));
tau ~ gamma(0.5, 0.0005);
// beta1" * A
for (i in 1:N)
beta1t_A[i] <- 0.0; # initialize vector
for (i in 1:A_N)
beta1t_A[A1[i]] <- beta1t_A[A1[i]] + beta1[A2[i]];
// beta1' * D
for (i in 1:N)
beta1t_D[i] <- beta1[i] * D[i];
// Ben's MVN replacement
lp__ <- lp__ - 0.5 / sigma_sq * (beta1t_D * beta1 - p * (beta1t_A * beta1));
lp__ <- lp__ - 0.5 * N * log(sigma_sq);
# hacky interpolated log(determinant(D - p * A))
idx <- 0;
while (floor(p * p_samples) >= idx) {
idx <- idx + 1;
}
ldet_left <- ldet_DpA[idx];
ldet_right <- ldet_DpA[idx + 1];
lp__ <- lp__ + 0.5 * (ldet_left + (ldet_right - ldet_left) * (p * p_samples - floor(p * p_samples)));;
// impose sum-to-zero constraint on CAR
beta1_mean <- mean(beta1);
beta1_stz <- beta1 - beta1_mean;
// model prediction
log_mu <- log(E) + alpha0 + alpha1 * x + beta1_stz;
// likelihood
O ~ poisson_log(log_mu);
}
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