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December 21, 2021 07:04
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{ | |
"cells": [ | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "markdown", | |
"id": "37782a97-d2df-485d-9046-40e20d06338c", | |
"metadata": { | |
"jp-MarkdownHeadingCollapsed": true, | |
"tags": [] | |
}, | |
"source": [ | |
"# Classes to represent Probability Space" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 60, | |
"id": "0a3343c2-04e9-410e-8b32-c67509d3a994", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [], | |
"source": [ | |
"class Event:\n", | |
" def __init__(self, pred, condition=None):\n", | |
" self.pred = pred\n", | |
" self.condition = condition\n", | |
" \n", | |
" def __or__(self, pred):\n", | |
" return Event(self.pred, pred.pred)" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 61, | |
"id": "f44d0c58-abf2-4de7-8832-dee17f010c16", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [], | |
"source": [ | |
"class Probability:\n", | |
" def __init__(self, sample_space):\n", | |
" self.sample_space = sample_space\n", | |
" \n", | |
" def __call__(self, event):\n", | |
" if event.condition:\n", | |
" num = len({x for x in self.sample_space if event.pred(x) and event.condition(x)})\n", | |
" den = len({x for x in self.sample_space if event.condition(x)})\n", | |
" return num / den\n", | |
" else:\n", | |
" num = len({x for x in self.sample_space if event.pred(x)})\n", | |
" den = len(self.sample_space)\n", | |
" return num/den" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "markdown", | |
"id": "d55d994c-ff72-423d-b9dd-a395631d8e0a", | |
"metadata": { | |
"jp-MarkdownHeadingCollapsed": true, | |
"tags": [] | |
}, | |
"source": [ | |
"# Sample Usecases" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 73, | |
"id": "f1e316fb-03af-47e1-aeb8-a616d5cf811d", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [], | |
"source": [ | |
"# dice has 6 outcomes\n", | |
"sample_space = {1,2,3,4,5,6}\n", | |
"p = Probability(sample_space)" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 74, | |
"id": "7768fad2-a5c4-43fa-b283-75bfe260a4df", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [ | |
{ | |
"data": { | |
"text/plain": [ | |
"0.5" | |
] | |
}, | |
"execution_count": 74, | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"output_type": "execute_result" | |
} | |
], | |
"source": [ | |
"# to find the probability of even numbers\n", | |
"is_even = Event(lambda x : x%2 == 0)\n", | |
"p(is_even)" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 75, | |
"id": "b3c6f26a-2ff4-4bc1-acbf-aad61cee910d", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [ | |
{ | |
"data": { | |
"text/plain": [ | |
"0.6666666666666666" | |
] | |
}, | |
"execution_count": 75, | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"output_type": "execute_result" | |
} | |
], | |
"source": [ | |
"# to find the probability of even numbers given it is > 3\n", | |
"greater_3 = Event(lambda x : x>3)\n", | |
"p(is_even | greater_3) # 2/3" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "markdown", | |
"id": "397fea1c-389a-459f-aea7-e8f3035320cb", | |
"metadata": { | |
"jp-MarkdownHeadingCollapsed": true, | |
"tags": [] | |
}, | |
"source": [ | |
"# Questions 1, 2" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 76, | |
"id": "4b2e7eee-5ee0-4c83-9294-e728fcefe1c7", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [], | |
"source": [ | |
"sample_space = {\"GG\",\"GB\",\"BG\",\"BB\"}\n", | |
"p = Probability(sample_space1)" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 77, | |
"id": "d27a8988-5a86-4491-a2d0-5a9d3c2729a5", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [], | |
"source": [ | |
"older_is_boy = Event(lambda x: x[0] == \"B\")\n", | |
"at_least_one_boy = Event(lambda x: \"B\" in x)\n", | |
"both_boy = Event(lambda x: x.count(\"B\") == 2)" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 78, | |
"id": "8aaa70bf-3ea1-4327-af63-322c62621afb", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [ | |
{ | |
"data": { | |
"text/plain": [ | |
"0.5" | |
] | |
}, | |
"execution_count": 78, | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"output_type": "execute_result" | |
} | |
], | |
"source": [ | |
"p(both_boy | older_is_boy)" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 79, | |
"id": "c1102f00-3ff2-412c-a330-712b8c942dac", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [ | |
{ | |
"data": { | |
"text/plain": [ | |
"0.3333333333333333" | |
] | |
}, | |
"execution_count": 79, | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"output_type": "execute_result" | |
} | |
], | |
"source": [ | |
"p(both_boy | at_least_one_boy)" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "markdown", | |
"id": "5950521a-68a0-4599-9fa1-610865b4846f", | |
"metadata": { | |
"jp-MarkdownHeadingCollapsed": true, | |
"tags": [] | |
}, | |
"source": [ | |
"# Question 3" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 80, | |
"id": "655f3c36-53a0-40e1-a1b5-4fc08b620986", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [], | |
"source": [ | |
"sample_space = {f\"{c1}{d1}{c2}{d2}\" \n", | |
" for c1 in [\"B\",\"G\"] for d1 in [1,2,3,4,5,6,7]\n", | |
" for c2 in [\"B\",\"G\"] for d2 in [1,2,3,4,5,6,7]}\n", | |
"p2 = Probability(sample_space) " | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 81, | |
"id": "d071b382-d4f7-44f7-8426-105b257d7fc9", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [], | |
"source": [ | |
"at_least_one_on_tues = Event(lambda x: \"B2\" in x)" | |
] | |
}, | |
{ | |
"cell_type": "code", | |
"execution_count": 82, | |
"id": "1222da4b-9e56-4762-ae95-9e895e88f54d", | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"outputs": [ | |
{ | |
"data": { | |
"text/plain": [ | |
"0.48148148148148145" | |
] | |
}, | |
"execution_count": 82, | |
"metadata": {}, | |
"output_type": "execute_result" | |
} | |
], | |
"source": [ | |
"p2(both_boy | at_least_one_on_tues)" | |
] | |
} | |
], | |
"metadata": { | |
"kernelspec": { | |
"display_name": "bayesian", | |
"language": "python", | |
"name": "bayesian" | |
}, | |
"language_info": { | |
"codemirror_mode": { | |
"name": "ipython", | |
"version": 3 | |
}, | |
"file_extension": ".py", | |
"mimetype": "text/x-python", | |
"name": "python", | |
"nbconvert_exporter": "python", | |
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3", | |
"version": "3.9.7" | |
} | |
}, | |
"nbformat": 4, | |
"nbformat_minor": 5 | |
} |
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