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AlexAndorra / pymc_constrained_priors.ipynb
Last active March 27, 2022 16:12
Tutorial: Choosing priors under constraints with PyMC
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AlexAndorra / demo_aggregated_polls.csv
Last active March 8, 2023 11:18
Multinomial-Softmax Varying Effects Model -- How to improve predictions?
We can make this file beautiful and searchable if this error is corrected: It looks like row 8 should actually have 10 columns, instead of 9. in line 7.
,type,dateelection,samplesize_agg,farleft_agg,left_agg,green_agg,center_agg,right_agg,farright_agg
0,president,2007-04-22,1513,2.642319739213243,23.87182150228697,0.7081341739052293,18.80659111617075,27.36192869136639,14.28224197910241
1,legislatives,2007-06-10,916,7.330430463707668,27.56734754232374,3.706149433560413,11.11857079713214,41.3225282850869,6.306121535983752
2,municipale,2008-03-09,755,3.587714919640731,44.51125588163963,5.78942009798018,8.098579044091164,32.74063560747641,2.18220604881888
3,europeennes,2009-06-07,2287,12.99453267007107,19.61478771495959,13.35153423532709,11.1684820808109,27.26258673414158,5.756322266063732
4,regionales,2010-03-14,907,9.82754276813801,28.9297161718842,13.58420361981117,4.684000265532882,28.93073792740683,9.083516463389802
5,president,2012-04-22,1400,13.68371418271063,27.6270407004019,2.529702829322754,10.3735479474175,26.783412051306,15.86246594485609
6,legislatives,2012-06-10,1193,7.973864868429566,32.11125265943151,5.070614112874637,2.775111578146919,33.68244436
@AlexAndorra
AlexAndorra / for_discourse.ipynb
Last active September 27, 2019 15:44
Improving sampling speed when sampling is already good but slow
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AlexAndorra / bug_az_compare.ipynb
Created August 26, 2019 18:44
Log likelihood not present in sample_stats of ArviZ compare function
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AlexAndorra / X_full.json
Last active March 14, 2019 20:47
A try at modeling French elections results with a hierarchical model. Related Discourse thread: https://discourse.pymc.io/t/multinomial-hierarchical-regression-with-multiple-observations-per-group-bad-energy-issue/2755/15
{"departement":{"0":"ain","1":"ain","2":"ain","3":"ain","4":"ain","5":"ain","6":"ain","7":"ain","8":"ain","9":"ain","10":"ain","11":"ain","12":"ain","13":"ain","14":"ain","15":"ain","16":"ain","17":"ain","18":"ain","19":"ain","20":"aisne","21":"aisne","22":"aisne","23":"aisne","24":"aisne","25":"aisne","26":"aisne","27":"aisne","28":"aisne","29":"aisne","30":"aisne","31":"aisne","32":"aisne","33":"aisne","34":"aisne","35":"aisne","36":"aisne","37":"aisne","38":"aisne","39":"aisne","40":"aisne","41":"allier","42":"allier","43":"allier","44":"allier","45":"allier","46":"allier","47":"allier","48":"allier","49":"allier","50":"allier","51":"allier","52":"allier","53":"allier","54":"allier","55":"allier","56":"allier","57":"allier","58":"allier","59":"allier","60":"allier","61":"alpesdehauteprovence","62":"alpesdehauteprovence","63":"alpesdehauteprovence","64":"alpesdehauteprovence","65":"alpesdehauteprovence","66":"alpesdehauteprovence","67":"alpesdehauteprovence","68":"alpesdehauteprovence","69":"alpesdehautepro