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Multinomial-Softmax Varying Effects Model -- How to improve predictions?
type dateelection samplesize_agg farleft_agg left_agg green_agg center_agg right_agg farright_agg
0 president 2007-04-22 1513 2.642319739213243 23.87182150228697 0.7081341739052293 18.80659111617075 27.36192869136639 14.28224197910241
1 legislatives 2007-06-10 916 7.330430463707668 27.56734754232374 3.706149433560413 11.11857079713214 41.3225282850869 6.306121535983752
2 municipale 2008-03-09 755 3.587714919640731 44.51125588163963 5.78942009798018 8.098579044091164 32.74063560747641 2.18220604881888
3 europeennes 2009-06-07 2287 12.99453267007107 19.61478771495959 13.35153423532709 11.1684820808109 27.26258673414158 5.756322266063732
4 regionales 2010-03-14 907 9.82754276813801 28.9297161718842 13.58420361981117 4.684000265532882 28.93073792740683 9.083516463389802
5 president 2012-04-22 1400 13.68371418271063 27.6270407004019 2.529702829322754 10.3735479474175 26.783412051306 15.86246594485609
6 legislatives 2012-06-10 1193 7.973864868429566 32.11125265943151 5.070614112874637 2.775111578146919 33.68244436524814 15.25863568458217
7 municipale 2014-03-23 977 5.590757245681147 38.19966887853894 6.539854898787164 0.0 36.59660966106258 8.238621736250181
8 europeennes 2014-05-25 3248 7.55630210443015 16.68915561513946 8.88391111731633 9.686673346084902 21.49759725516988 23.2142532792426
9 regionales 2015-12-06 1749 5.267733514302111 22.90611009083124 5.860654376270849 0.0 28.11253252341348 28.88151680528222
10 president 2017-04-23 1555 18.87525529737615 7.687336483521855 8.040551168080104e-09 23.74748026654238 19.38216802537257 22.46609650992854
11 legislatives 2017-06-11 1299 11.70698665701012 7.980058139295995 2.989557860135522 30.37535345478942 21.00566598781601 17.41608188288658
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