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ipython for https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/114139/inferring-prior-distribution/114219#114219
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paste | |
from pymc.Matplot import plot as mcplot | |
mcplot(mcmc) | |
%pylab | |
paste | |
mcmc.trace('alpha') | |
mcmc.trace('alpha')[:] | |
hist(mcmc.trace('alpha')[:]) | |
hist(mcmc.trace('alpha')[:], normed=True, bins=25) | |
hist(mcmc.trace('alpha')[:], normed=True, bins=25) | |
plt.title("posterior of alpha") | |
hist(mcmc.trace('alpha')[:], normed=True, bins=25, label='posterior of alpha', alpha=0.7) | |
hist(mcmc.trace('beta')[:], normed=True, bins=25, label='posterior of beta', alpha=0.7) | |
hist(mcmc.trace('beta')[:], normed=True, bins=25, label='posterior of beta', alpha=0.7, histstyle='stepfilled') | |
hist(mcmc.trace('beta')[:], normed=True, bins=25, label='posterior of beta', alpha=0.7, histtype='stepfilled') | |
hist(mcmc.trace('beta')[:], normed=True, bins=25, label='posterior of beta', alpha=0.7, histtype='stepfilled') | |
hist(mcmc.trace('alpha')[:], normed=True, bins=25, label='posterior of alpha', alpha=0.7, histtype='stepfilled') | |
plt.legend() | |
plt.title('Posterior distribution of alpha,beta for a Beta distribution') | |
from scipy.stats import beta | |
x = linspace(0,1, 500) | |
alpha_trace = mcmc.trace('alpha')[:] | |
beta_trace = mcmc.trace('beta')[:] | |
alpha_trace = mcmc.trace('alpha')[:1000] | |
alpha_trace | |
alpha_trace = mcmc.trace('alpha')[::1000] | |
alpha_trace | |
beta_trace = mcmc.trace('beta')[::1000] | |
beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace, beta_trace) | |
beta.pdf(x, 1, 1) | |
beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace[:,None], beta_trace[:,None]) | |
beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace[:,None], beta_trace[:,None]).shape | |
plot(beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace[:,None], beta_trace[:,None])) | |
plot(beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace[:,None], beta_trace[:,None]).T) | |
plot(beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace[:,None], beta_trace[:,None]).T) | |
plot(beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace[:,None], beta_trace[:,None]).T) | |
plt.title('Samples from the posterior distribution of the unknown distribution') | |
alpha_trace = mcmc.trace('alpha') | |
beta_trace = mcmc.trace('beta') | |
beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace[:,None], beta_trace[:,None]).shape | |
beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace[:,None], beta_trace[:,None]).mean(0) | |
beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace[:,None], beta_trace[:,None]).mean(0).shape | |
plot(beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace[:,None], beta_trace[:,None]).mean(0)) | |
plot(beta.pdf(x, alpha_trace[:,None], beta_trace[:,None]).mean(0)) |
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