Earlier this week I made a $101.52 bet with a friend that there would be over 50 million Americans infected with coronavirus in the next three years. No one else really seems to agree with me. Indeed, my friend said it was plausible but unlikely that even 10 million Americans would get Coronavirus. In this post I would like to argue the liklihood of my side of the debate and respond to counter arguments.
Separately from the bet, there are obviously big negative implications if I am right. If 50 million Americans get it, and it has a 1% mortality rate (which seems to be the current best estimate), that is 500,000 thousand deaths. That is horrible. I dont suppose to know how bad it is among those who dont die, but I wouldnt want to find out personally. If I am right, maybe you should start prepping? I have been prepping for the last month.
When trying to establish the liklihood of any event, it helps to start by establishing the facts of how similar historical events played out:
- Each year the seasonal flu i