Apostrophe TV + Arestovich 2019 - English subtitles

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Alexey Arestovich is a military expert currently (March 2022) serving as an advisor to President Zelensky
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This interview is from March 19, 2019
At this point, Russia has been supporting a military conflict in the East of Ukraine (Donbas region) for five years, following its annexation of Crimea in 2014.
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- The question is - how can we stop the war?
- We will not stop the war
- What can push Putin toward making the decision?

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Toward stopping the war?

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Yes

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Nothing

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His key objective is to rebuild the USSR and to win the cold war

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To replay the cold war

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The destruction of social safety net in Europe,
the collapse of NATO and the European Union

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So he can deal with EU countries one at a time

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because individually each EU country is weaker than Russia

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Russia is weaker than EU as a whole, but stronger if it's broken up

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The man is worth 150 billion USD, they say
He has a nuclear umbrella
He is 70 years old

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So if his goal is to reassemble USSR as one country

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He seems to have gotten stuck in Ukraine

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Why is he not expanding in other directions?
Belarus, say

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Expanding where?
He is not in any hurry

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These are strategic goals, as I mentioned on this program before

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This operation is being planned all the way to 2032 or 2035

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These types of things don't happen in a hurry

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What's the outcome of this in 2032?

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I think it will be a new empire of sorts

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They'll find a way to reconfigure foreign and domestic policy

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Russia, Belarus, Ukraine or a part of Ukraine, possibly Armenia

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Moldova

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Northern parts of Kazakhstan

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Regional details aren't too important here

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Ukraine and Belarus for sure - the three Slavic people would have to be assembled

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And - Russia as a new major player in a more complex world

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Russia has a big, important role, it's in the top 4-5 nations or alliances of nations

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Fully in control of its political ambitions

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The territory of CIS becomes the sovereign territory of Russia

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That nobody ever gets to challenge

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Obviously with Russia dominating in Europe

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And that's the outcome

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Of Putin's politics

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Why by 2030

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They know how to plan things

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Post-Soviet Russia was falling apart for eight years before Putin's rise to power - between 1991 and 1999

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To rebuild it you need at least double that time

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They decided to go ahead with the plan in 2007

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They began planning it after the Orange Revolution of 2004-5, and it took them a couple of years to formalize a course of action

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In 2007 Putin gives his Munich speech and they suspend Russia's participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe

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2007 + 16, how much is that?
2023

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2023, but considering that since Crimea they've been facing sanctions and other forms of deterrence

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We have to multiply this by at least 1.5

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That's how we get to 2032-3035

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What could happen in Ukraine that would encourage this?

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You mean Ukraine becoming a part of Russia?

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If we don't join NATO, we're finished

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We're not strong enough to remain neutral, so we'd lose neutrality

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For some reason naive folks believe that neutrality means we don't have to spend much on the military

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Because we're not planning to go to war with anyone

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Neutrality is 10 times more expensive than going to war

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Switzerland

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While a neutral country, has insane military taxes

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Girls, boys - they all serve

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And Switzerland is not surrounded by Russia, it's surrounded by France, Italy, Germany, and Austria

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Switzerland has the fourth combat readiness in the world

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With nonstop military training

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Keep in mind: they have 6 or 8 mountain passes

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Blow them up and kick back - nobody will get to them

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We have 2700 km of open border with Russia

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Barren steppes

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Can you imagine how much neutrality will cost us?

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What about Hungary and other disputes?

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This is why we cannot hold onto neutrality

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Not enough resources

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A geography like ours wouldn't allow any country to remain neutral

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If we cannot remain neutral, we either join Russia and friends

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Or join NATO
No other choice

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How can NATO let us in while we have a war in the east of Ukraine?

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That is one of the biggest NATO myths

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That they don't allow membership to countries with ongoing territorial conflicts

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Believe it or not, they can allow membership to two countries engaged in a dispute

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Greece and Turkey, for example

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That's true, but the military conflict was on Cyprus in that case

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- Yes, but nonetheless - what did Turkey do?
- Our conflict is in Ukraine proper

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Turkey created their own Donetsk Republic on Cyprus

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Turkey gets all sorts of flak about this

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Turkey is a member of NATO nonetheless

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Do you see what I mean?
There are 36 conflicts within NATO

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Spain considers Gibraltar to be a Spanish territory
Occupied by the British

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Both Britain and Spain are NATO members

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Britain was involved in several so called Cod Wars with Iceland

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Both are NATO members

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Many NATO countries have various degrees of beef with one another

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But the main ones are Britain vs Spain

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And Greece vs Turkey

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Despite all that, they're all members of NATO

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As far as territorial disputes go

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Too many to count

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So NATO memberhsip it's a question of political will?

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No doubt

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If you visit Bulgaria and take a careful look around

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In comparison with Bulgaria 2019, Ukraine was ready for NATO membership in 1999

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How come NATO isn't in a hurry to admit Ukraine?

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Because they did't have consensus about Ukraine

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They weren't sure whether they need Ukraine at all

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They feared we might drift all the way back to Russia
With our Yanukovich

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- Do they need Ukraine?
- Now it's pretty straightforward

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Now that British citizens got poisoned with a military-grade biological weapon on British soil

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After a Malaysian airliner gets downed over Ukraine by Russian actors

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After an attempted coup in Montenegro

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After the European refugee crisis

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After Syria

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After all the other things

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Finally the West realized

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That Russia is not fighting Ukraine and Georgia

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It's fighting the West

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Do you see what I mean?

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They realized this really late
Early 2018 or late 2017

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Some who were ahead of the pack realized this toward late 2016

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The rest followed soon after

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And now their calculations are really simple
It's basic arithmetic

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If they don't let us join NATO

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Russia gets an extra 40 million people
And about 1 million troops

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If they do let us join NATO
They get 40 million people and 1 million troops

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Troops that have already engaged Russia in war
Engaged successfuly

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Simple math really

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What should the new president do - what are the first steps?

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Parliamentary elections

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If the parliament falls out with the president and begins to block reform bills

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If the parliament blocks bills aimed at joining the European Union and NATO

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It will be difficult

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We would need to disband the parliament and hold new parliamentary elections

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And they'll all get re-elected

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When he [Zelensky] wins, he must begin the process of joining NATO

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Nothing else matters

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War is more important than anything else

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Economy, social reforms - all that garbage
All of it is sacrificed in favor of war
Always

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If we lose the war
All other questions are moot

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Putin and Kadyrov will be implementing our social policies

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If we lose the war

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So if Ukraine starts the process of joining NATO

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Then we can starting talking about the schedule for ending the war [in Donbas]?

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There will be no talking about any schedule for ending the war in Donbas

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On the contrary, this will likely cause Russia to invade Ukraine

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Russia will have to destroy our infrastructure

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They'll have to turn Ukraine into rubble

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To make Ukraine not very interesting to NATO

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So Russia will be ready for a direct confrontation with NATO?

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No, not NATO
Russia must do this before we're accepted

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This way we [Ukraine] will be of no interest to NATO

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A country turned to rubble is not very interesting to NATO

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With 99.9% certainty, our price for joining NATO is a full-scale war with Russia

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If we don't join NATO, Russia will absorb Ukraine within 10-12 years

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That's our situation at the moment

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Now let's get Zelensky elected

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What's better, war with Russia or getting absorbed by it?

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Undoubtedly a full-scale war with Russia is better

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And NATO membership as the result of winning the war

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What do you mean by a full-scale war with Russia?

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Air offensives

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The invasion by the four armies they've formed on our border

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The siege of Kyiv

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An attempt to surround our forces in the east [Donbas] region

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Invasion from Crimea to destroy the dam that's blocking Crimean water supply

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To release water to Crimea

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Invasion from Belarus

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The creation of new people's republics

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False flag operations

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Destruction of critical infrastructure
And so on

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Airborn assault

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That's what a full-scale war with Russia looks like

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The probability that this war will happen is 99%

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When

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Some time in 2020, 2021, or 2022

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Next critical period is 2024-2026

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Followed by 2028-2030

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There could be three wars with Russia

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So in the case of a big war with Russia new people's republics will be declared?

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Without a doubt

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Before Russian tanks, Russian saboteurs will enter and declare Kharkhiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Odessa, and Kherson People's Republics

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Zaporozhye People's Republic

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Is there a way Ukraine can begin the process of joining NATO while avoiding a war with Russia?

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There is no way

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Unless the West pressures Russia so hard, it understands that it's better not to attack

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Pressures with sanctions or embargo?

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Yes, for example sanctions, embargo
Or publicly or privately let Russia know that an attempt to conduct a war will hurt real bad

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For example, they could transfer a small American air force here

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And let them know that no armed conflict will take place

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NATO forces could surround Kyiv

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On the left bank of the Dnieper

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They could force a regime change in Russia

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Russia could get a progressive government that wouldn't oppose us joining NATO

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They could say "We're a good country again"
Anything is possible

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What are the necessary conditions for regime change in Russia

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Well, in the case of an internal conflict in Russia among the elites

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If the part of the Russian elites who believe that continuing with the current policy of opposing the West, destroying NATO and the EU - in order to win the cold war

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And to be a pariah on the global stage

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Is not in their best interests
If that part of the elite prevails

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And they gain sufficient momentum to remove the [criminal] group of people who are currently in power
and are planning USSR 2.0

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If that sort of thing happens, then a war could be avoided

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What about a peaceful resolution of the conflict?

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Impossible

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Why?
It seems the West is considering the options of resolving the situation in Donbas peacefully

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The West is considering the option of asking Russia to change its mind

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For these options ot work Russia has to change its mind

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Why would Russia change its mind?
A single reason why?

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- Threaten with sanctions?
- Yeah, threaten with sanctions, regime change...

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Realistically, how can you threaten a country that has nuclear armor?

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Nuclear attack capabilities?

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Seriously, what sort of a threat are we talking about?

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To bring Russia to a point where it has to make the decision to push the nuclear button...
It has to be a very serious decision

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That's not the point

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The point is you cannot seriously treaten a nuclear state the size of Russia

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The only serious threat is military force

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But there is no such thing as the threat of military force against someone with nuclear attack capabilities

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And economic sanctions for a country like Russia...

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Iran has been under sanctions for 40 years

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Way heavier sanctions than imposed on Russia

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Iran has been a thorn in the eye of the entire world

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Saudi Arabia, Israel, Syria, USA - definitely a thorn in the eye of these countries

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Half of Africa, half of South America

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Iran is manipulating half the globe

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And nobody can really do anything with Iran
They're developing nuclear weapons, launching rockets to space

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Russia is much bigger than Iran
And much more influencial

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If we were to sum this up

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You believe that the most important decision for the next president of Ukraine

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Is to begin the process of joining NATO

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Absolutely, it's the most important thing

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Maybe a couple of other important things?

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There are two ways of looking at these elections

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Historical and socio-economic

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But we must remember that the socio-economic way of looking at the elections is only possible because somebody is really good at fighting wars

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Provides allies, support

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$700M in military aid from the US

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That's the only reason we can even talk about democracy right now

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Ukraine does not stand a chance in remaining neutral

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We will end up drifting toward one military alliance or the other

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It will be either USSR 2.0 or NATO

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We already tried USSR
And I personally don't want to go back

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We haven't tried NATO - let's give it a shot

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We definitely don't have the resources to remain neutral

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So the most important historical goal is joining NATO - more important than all possible socio-economic sacrifies we'll face while achieving this goal

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Including high inflation

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But considering that instead of high inflation we have healthy economic growth

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Things are actually looking pretty good

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But the most likely price for joining NATO is a full-scale military conflict with Russia

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Or a bigger military conflict with Russia than we have today

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Or the consequences of such these military conflicts

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But the West will actively support us in such a conflict

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Arms, machinery, aid, new sactions aimed a Russia, possible introduction of NATO forces, maybe a no-fly zone

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We will not lose this war

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And that's the good news