2025 General Conference Stats Update

32_conference_stats_2025.R

library(tidyverse)
library(stringr)
library(scales)
library(ggtext)
library(patchwork)
library(showtext)

font_add("Cairo_bold", "~/Library/Fonts/Cairo-Bold.ttf")
font_add("Cairo", "~/Library/Fonts/Cairo-Regular.ttf")
showtext::showtext_auto(enable = TRUE)

df <- read.csv("./data/membership.csv")
# dataset: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ghU8_9CcaW337iUCMoiFDvPV1SMAQCecu2ZfWrx1y9w/edit?gid=0#gid=0

data <- df[20:(nrow(df)-1), c("Year","Missionaries", "Converts", "Members", "New.Children.of.Record")] |>
  mutate(across(everything(), \(x) str_remove_all(x, pattern = fixed(",")))) |>
  mutate(across(everything(), as.numeric))

# 2024 actuals (released April 2025 General Conference)
yr_2024 <- data.frame(
  Year = 2024,
  Missionaries = 74127,
  Converts = 308682,
  Members = 17509781,
  New.Children.of.Record = 91617
)

# 2025 actuals (released April 2026 General Conference)
yr_2025 <- data.frame(
  Year = 2025,
  Missionaries = 78596,  # full-time teaching missionaries
  Converts = 385490,
  Members = 17887212,
  New.Children.of.Record = 91835
)

data <- bind_rows(data, yr_2024, yr_2025) |>
  arrange(desc(Year))

# ── Chart 1: Missionaries (p1) + Convert Baptisms (p2) ──────────────────────

(p1 <- data |>
  filter(Year >= 1977, !is.na(Missionaries)) |>
  ggplot(aes(x = Year, y = Missionaries)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 1.5, color = "grey") +
  labs(
    title = "<span style='color:grey'>Missionaries</span> Increase",
    subtitle = "The missionary count has almost tripled since 1980",
    x = "Year",
    y = "Missionary Count"
  ) +
  theme(
    axis.ticks       = element_blank(),
    axis.title       = element_text(size = 40),
    axis.text        = element_text(size = 30),
    panel.background = element_blank(),
    text             = element_text(face = "bold", family = "Cairo"),
    plot.title       = element_markdown(size = 50, family = "Cairo_bold", hjust = 0.5),
    plot.background  = element_rect(fill = "grey95", color = NA),
    plot.subtitle    = element_text(hjust = 0.5, face = "italic", size = 40, family = "Cairo"),
    panel.grid       = element_line(color = "grey95"),
    panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "lightgrey", linetype = "solid"),
    plot.caption     = element_text(hjust = 1, size = 33, face = "italic")
  ) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(1975, 2025, 5)) +
  scale_y_continuous(
    breaks = seq(0, 500000, 25000),
    labels = scales::comma_format(),
    limits = c(0, 100000)
  ) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 2012) +
  geom_text(aes(x = 2008, y = 20000, label = "Age Change ->"), size = 8, family = "Cairo") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 2020) +
  geom_text(aes(x = 2016.5, y = 20000, label = "COVID-19 ->"), size = 8, family = "Cairo") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 2025, linetype = "dashed") +
  geom_text(aes(x = 2018, y = 95000, label = "Women's Age Change (18) ->"), size = 8, family = "Cairo")
)

(p2 <- data |>
  filter(Year >= 1977) |>
  ggplot(aes(x = Year, y = Converts)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 1.5, color = "#097969") +
  labs(
    title = "<span style='color:#097969'>Convert Baptisms</span> Surge in 2025",
    subtitle = "385,490 baptisms — a new high",
    x = "Year",
    y = "Convert Baptisms",
    caption = "@mormon_metrics | Source: General Conference"
  ) +
  theme(
    axis.ticks       = element_blank(),
    axis.title       = element_text(size = 40),
    axis.text        = element_text(size = 30),
    panel.background = element_blank(),
    text             = element_text(face = "bold", family = "Cairo"),
    plot.title       = element_markdown(size = 50, family = "Cairo_bold", hjust = 0.5),
    plot.background  = element_rect(fill = "grey95", color = NA),
    plot.subtitle    = element_text(hjust = 0.5, face = "italic", size = 40, family = "Cairo"),
    panel.grid       = element_line(color = "grey95"),
    panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "lightgrey", linetype = "solid"),
    plot.caption     = element_text(hjust = 1, size = 33)
  ) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(1975, 2025, 5)) +
  scale_y_continuous(
    breaks = seq(0, 500000, 100000),
    labels = scales::comma_format(),
    limits = c(0, 400000)
  ) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 2012) +
  geom_text(aes(x = 2008, y = 50000, label = "Age Change ->"), size = 8, family = "Cairo") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 2020) +
  geom_text(aes(x = 2016.5, y = 50000, label = "COVID-19 ->"), size = 8, family = "Cairo") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 2025, linetype = "dashed") +
  geom_text(aes(x = 2018, y = 95000, label = "Women's Age Change (18) ->"), size = 8, family = "Cairo")
)

p3 <- p1 / p2
ggsave("./images/32_conference_stats_2025_1.png", p3, width = 1700, height = 2000, units = "px", dpi = 300)

# ── Chart 2: Converts per missionary ────────────────────────────────────────

p4 <- data |>
  filter(Year >= 1977, !is.na(Missionaries)) |>
  mutate(converts_per_missionary = Converts / Missionaries) |>
  ggplot(aes(x = Year, y = converts_per_missionary)) +
  geom_point(size = 3, alpha = 0.4, color = "goldenrod3") +
  geom_smooth(se = FALSE, color = "goldenrod3", method = "lm") +
  labs(
    title = "Missionaries Today Have Half The Baptisms As The 80s",
    subtitle = "From ~8 converts per missionary in the 1980s; 2025 sees an uptick to ~4.9",
    x = "Year",
    y = "Converts Per Missionary",
    caption = "@mormon_metrics | Source: General Conference"
  ) +
  theme(
    axis.ticks       = element_blank(),
    axis.title       = element_text(size = 40),
    axis.text        = element_text(size = 30),
    panel.background = element_blank(),
    text             = element_text(face = "bold", family = "Cairo"),
    plot.title       = element_text(hjust = 0.5, size = 50, face = "bold", family = "Cairo_bold"),
    plot.background  = element_rect(fill = "grey95", color = NA),
    plot.subtitle    = element_text(hjust = 0.5, face = "italic", size = 40, family = "Cairo"),
    panel.grid       = element_line(color = "grey95"),
    panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "lightgrey", linetype = "solid"),
    plot.caption     = element_text(hjust = 1, size = 33)
  ) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(1975, 2025, 5)) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 10, 2), limits = c(0, 10)) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 2012) +
  geom_text(aes(x = 2008, y = 1, label = "Age Change ->"), size = 8, family = "Cairo") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 2020) +
  geom_text(aes(x = 2016.5, y = 1, label = "COVID-19 ->"), size = 8, family = "Cairo") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 2025, linetype = "dashed") +
  geom_text(aes(x = 2019, y = 8, label = "Women's Age Change (18) ->"), size = 8, family = "Cairo")

ggsave("./images/32_conference_stats_2025_2.png", p4, width = 2000, height = 2000, units = "px", dpi = 300)

# ── Chart 3: Total membership + YoY growth + Children of Record ─────────────

p5 <- data |>
  filter(Year >= 1973) |>
  ggplot(aes(x = Year, y = Members)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 1.5, color = "#FF7F0E") +
  geom_text(
    data = data |> filter(Year == 2025) |>
      mutate(percent_lbl = format(round(Members), big.mark = ",")),
    aes(x = Year, y = Members, label = percent_lbl),
    family = "Cairo", fontface = "bold", size = 15,
    nudge_x = 4.5, show.legend = FALSE, color = "#FF7F0E"
  ) +
  labs(
    title = "Total Church Membership Continues To Grow",
    y = "Total Church Membership (Official)",
    x = "Year"
  ) +
  theme(
    axis.ticks       = element_blank(),
    axis.title       = element_text(size = 40),
    axis.text        = element_text(size = 30),
    panel.background = element_blank(),
    text             = element_text(face = "bold", family = "Cairo"),
    plot.title       = element_text(size = 60, face = "bold", family = "Cairo_bold", hjust = 0.5),
    plot.subtitle    = element_text(hjust = 0.5, face = "italic", size = 45, family = "Cairo"),
    legend.title     = element_blank(),
    legend.background = element_blank(),
    plot.background  = element_rect(fill = "grey95", color = NA),
    legend.box.background = element_blank(),
    legend.key       = element_blank(),
    legend.position  = "top",
    panel.grid       = element_line(color = "grey95"),
    panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "lightgrey", linetype = "solid"),
    plot.caption     = element_text(size = 33, face = "italic")
  ) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(1970, 2030, 5), limits = c(1970, 2032)) +
  scale_y_continuous(
    breaks = seq(0, 20000000, 5000000),
    limits = c(0, 20000000),
    labels = scales::label_number(scale_cut = cut_short_scale())
  )

p6_1 <- data |>
  filter(Year >= 1973) |>
  mutate(
    members_lead  = lead(Members, 1),
    perc_change   = round((Members - members_lead) / Members * 100, 2)
  ) |>
  ggplot(aes(x = Year, y = perc_change)) +
  geom_point(size = 3, alpha = 0.4, color = "black") +
  geom_smooth(se = FALSE, color = "black", method = "lm") +
  labs(
    title = "YoY Percent Change In Membership Has Dropped Over Time",
    subtitle = "2025 shows uptick driven by higher convert baptisms",
    y = "YoY Membership Growth % (Official)",
    x = "Year"
  ) +
  theme(
    axis.ticks       = element_blank(),
    axis.title       = element_text(size = 40),
    axis.text        = element_text(size = 30),
    panel.background = element_blank(),
    text             = element_text(face = "bold", family = "Cairo"),
    plot.title       = element_text(size = 60, face = "bold", family = "Cairo_bold", hjust = 0.5),
    plot.subtitle    = element_text(hjust = 0.5, face = "italic", size = 45, family = "Cairo"),
    legend.title     = element_blank(),
    legend.background = element_blank(),
    panel.grid       = element_line(color = "grey95"),
    plot.background  = element_rect(fill = "grey95", color = NA),
    legend.box.background = element_blank(),
    legend.key       = element_blank(),
    legend.position  = "top",
    panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "lightgrey", linetype = "solid"),
    plot.caption     = element_text(size = 33)
  ) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(1970, 2030, 5), limits = c(1970, 2030)) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(1, 10, 1))

p6 <- data |>
  filter(Year >= 1973) |>
  ggplot(aes(x = Year, y = New.Children.of.Record)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 1.5, color = "#1D71BA") +
  geom_text(
    data = data |> filter(Year == 2025) |>
      mutate(percent_lbl = format(round(New.Children.of.Record), big.mark = ",")),
    aes(x = Year, y = New.Children.of.Record, label = percent_lbl),
    family = "Cairo", fontface = "bold", size = 15,
    nudge_x = 3.5, show.legend = FALSE, color = "#1D71BA"
  ) +
  labs(
    title = "Children of Record Births Remain Flat in 2025",
    caption = "@mormon_metrics | Source: General Conference",
    subtitle = "Children of Record Births Have Flatlined Despite 3X Increase In Membership",
    y = "Children of Record Births (Official)",
    x = "Year"
  ) +
  theme(
    axis.ticks       = element_blank(),
    axis.title       = element_text(size = 40),
    axis.text        = element_text(size = 30),
    panel.background = element_blank(),
    text             = element_text(face = "bold", family = "Cairo"),
    plot.title       = element_text(size = 60, face = "bold", family = "Cairo_bold", hjust = 0.5),
    plot.subtitle    = element_text(hjust = 0.5, face = "italic", size = 45, family = "Cairo"),
    legend.title     = element_blank(),
    legend.background = element_blank(),
    panel.grid       = element_line(color = "grey95"),
    plot.background  = element_rect(fill = "grey95", color = NA),
    legend.box.background = element_blank(),
    legend.key       = element_blank(),
    legend.position  = "top",
    panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "lightgrey", linetype = "solid"),
    plot.caption     = element_text(size = 33)
  ) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(1970, 2030, 5), limits = c(1970, 2030)) +
  scale_y_continuous(
    breaks = seq(0, 200000, 25000),
    limits = c(0, 200000),
    labels = scales::label_number(scale_cut = cut_short_scale())
  )

p7 <- (p5 / p6_1 / p6)
ggsave("./images/32_conference_stats_2025_3.png", p7, width = 2500, height = 3000, units = "px", dpi = 300)

# ── Chart 4: Births per 1000 members ────────────────────────────────────────

p8_births <- data |>
  filter(Year >= 1973) |>
  mutate(birth_rate = New.Children.of.Record / (Members / 1000)) |>
  ggplot(aes(x = Year, y = birth_rate)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 1.5, color = "#1D71BA") +
  geom_text(
    data = data |> filter(Year == 2025) |>
      mutate(
        birth_rate  = New.Children.of.Record / (Members / 1000),
        percent_lbl = as.character(round(birth_rate, 2))
      ),
    aes(x = Year, y = birth_rate, label = percent_lbl),
    family = "Cairo", fontface = "bold", size = 15,
    nudge_x = 1.5, show.legend = FALSE, color = "#1D71BA"
  ) +
  labs(
    title = "Births Per 1000 Members Has Dropped Over Time",
    caption = "@mormon_metrics | Source: General Conference",
    subtitle = "Births per 1000 members is only ~1/5 of what it was in 1980",
    y = "Births Per 1000 Members (Official)",
    x = "Year"
  ) +
  theme(
    axis.ticks       = element_blank(),
    axis.text      = element_text(size = 30),
    panel.background = element_blank(),
    text             = element_text(face = "bold", family = "Cairo"),
    plot.title       = element_text(size = 60, face = "bold", family = "Cairo_bold", hjust = 0.5),
    plot.subtitle    = element_text(hjust = 0.5, face = "italic", size = 45, family = "Cairo"),
    plot.background  = element_rect(fill = "grey95", color = NA),
    axis.title       = element_text(size = 40, face = "bold"),
    legend.title     = element_blank(),
    legend.background = element_blank(),
    legend.box.background = element_blank(),
    legend.key       = element_blank(),
    legend.position  = "top",
    panel.grid       = element_line(color = "grey95"),
    panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "lightgrey", linetype = "solid"),
    plot.caption     = element_text(size = 30)
  ) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(1970, 2025, 5)) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 30, 5), limits = c(0, 30))

ggsave("./images/32_conference_stats_2025_4.png", p8_births, width = 2500, height = 2000, units = "px", dpi = 300)

# ── Chart 5: Exits per 1000 members ─────────────────────────────────────────

p8_exits <- data |>
  filter(Year >= 2000) |>
  mutate(
    lead_members = lead(Members, 1),
    lost         = (Converts + New.Children.of.Record) - (Members - lead_members),
    lost_rate    = lost / (Members / 1000)
  ) |>
  ggplot(aes(x = Year, y = lost_rate)) +
  geom_point(size = 3, alpha = 0.4, color = "#D62728") +
  geom_smooth(se = FALSE, color = "#D62728", method = "lm") +
  labs(
    title = "Exits Per 1000 Members Has Increased Since 2000",
    caption = "@mormon_metrics | Source: General Conference",
    subtitle = "Exits per 1000 members Has Doubled Since 2000",
    y = "Exits Per 1000 Members (Official)",
    x = "Year"
  ) +
  theme(
    axis.ticks       = element_blank(),
    axis.text      = element_text(size = 30),
    panel.background = element_blank(),
    text             = element_text(face = "bold", family = "Cairo"),
    plot.title       = element_text(size = 60, face = "bold", family = "Cairo_bold", hjust = 0.5),
    plot.subtitle    = element_text(hjust = 0.5, face = "italic", size = 45, family = "Cairo"),
    plot.background  = element_rect(fill = "grey95", color = NA),
    axis.title       = element_text(size = 40, face = "bold"),
    legend.title     = element_blank(),
    legend.background = element_blank(),
    legend.box.background = element_blank(),
    legend.key       = element_blank(),
    legend.position  = "top",
    panel.grid       = element_line(color = "grey95"),
    panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "lightgrey", linetype = "solid"),
    plot.caption     = element_text(size = 30)
  ) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(2000, 2025, 5)) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 14, 2), limits = c(0, 15))

ggsave("./images/32_conference_stats_2025_5.png", p8_exits, width = 2000, height = 2000, units = "px", dpi = 300)

# ── Chart 6: Proportion of growth from births vs converts ───────────────────

prop_data <- data |>
  filter(Year >= 1977) |>
  mutate(
    total_joiners = Converts + New.Children.of.Record,
    prop_converts = Converts / total_joiners,
    prop_births   = New.Children.of.Record / total_joiners
  )

p_prop <- prop_data |>
  select(Year, prop_converts, prop_births) |>
  pivot_longer(cols = c(prop_converts, prop_births), names_to = "type", values_to = "prop") |>
  mutate(type = factor(type,
    levels = c("prop_births", "prop_converts"),
    labels = c("Children of Record", "Convert Baptisms")
  )) |>
  ggplot(aes(x = Year, y = prop, fill = type)) +
  geom_col(width = 0.8) +
  geom_segment(
    data = prop_data,
    aes(x = Year - 0.4, xend = Year + 0.4, y = 1-prop_births, yend = 1-prop_births),
    inherit.aes = FALSE,
    linewidth = 2.2, color = "black"
  ) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("Children of Record" = "#1D71BA", "Convert Baptisms" = "#097969")) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format(accuracy = 1)) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(1975, 2025, 5)) +
  labs(
    title = "Church Growth Is Increasingly Convert-Driven",
    subtitle = "<span style='color:#097969; font-weight:bold'>Convert Baptisms</span> vs <span style='color:#1D71BA; font-weight:bold'>Children of Record</span> as share of new joiners",
    caption = "@mormon_metrics | Source: General Conference",
    x = "Year",
    y = "Share of New Joiners"
  ) +
  theme(
    axis.ticks       = element_blank(),
    axis.title       = element_text(size = 40),
    axis.text        = element_text(size = 30),
    panel.background = element_blank(),
    text             = element_text(face = "bold", family = "Cairo"),
    plot.title       = element_text(hjust = 0.5, size = 60, face = "bold", family = "Cairo_bold"),
    plot.background  = element_rect(fill = "grey95", color = NA),
    plot.subtitle    = element_markdown(hjust = 0.5, face = "italic", size = 45, family = "Cairo_bold"),
    panel.grid       = element_blank(),
    panel.grid.major.y = element_line(color = "lightgrey", linetype = "solid"),
    plot.caption     = element_text(hjust = 1, size = 30),
    legend.position  = "none"
  )

ggsave("./images/32_conference_stats_2025_6.png", p_prop, width = 2000, height = 2000, units = "px", dpi = 300)