There are ten tasks in a project and they all need to be completed within their estimate for the project to be delivered on time. Each task has a 10% chance that is mis-estimated and will take longer.
What is the probability that the project will be delivered on time?
If a task has a 10% chance of being late it has a 90% (0.9) probability of success. Probability of multiple events is calculated by multiplying all the probabilties:
0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 etc. In the contrived example where all probabilites are the same we can do a simple power of:
Eshell V5.10.2 (abort with ^G)