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slatestarcodex 2018 predictions sorted by resolution
canceled:
<i>60. Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of this year: 90%</i><br />
<i>76. I will not have scored 95th percentile or above when I get this year’s PRITE scores back: 60%</i></p>
<i>84. I will get at least one new girlfriend: 70%</i><br />
false:
<s>11. Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 60%</s><br />
<s>21. EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun: 70%</s><br />
<s>26. Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair: 70%</s></p>
<s>38. …but lower than $60 a barrel: 60%</s><br />
<s>43. Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins: 80%</s><br />
<s>45. US GDP growth lower than in 2016: 60%</s><br />
<s>46. US unemployment to be higher at end of year than beginning: 60%</s><br />
<s>50. US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia: 70%</s><br />
<s>54. SSC will get fewer hits than in 2016: 60%</s><br />
<s>57. I will finish a long FAQ this year: 60%</s><br />
<s>65. …not the New York Solstice: 60%</s></p>
<s>67. …at the time I am expecting to take it, without any delays: 80%</s><br />
<s>73. None of my outpatients to be hospitalized for psychiatric reasons during the first half of 2017: 50%</s><br />
<s>80. I will travel outside the US in 2017: 70%</s><br />
<s>81. …to Europe: 50%</s><br />
<s>90. I won’t live in the Bailey for at least two weeks continuous: 95%</s><br />
<s>95. I will make my savings target at the end of 2017: 60%</s><br />
<s>100. I attend at least one wedding this year: 50%</s><br />
<s>105. I weight < 195 pounds at the end of 2017: 70%</s></p>
true:
1. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 60%<br />
2. North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%<br />
3. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 90%<br />
4. …in any First World country: 80%<br />
5. Assad will remain President of Syria: 80%<br />
6. Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90%<br />
7. No major intifada in Israel this year (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war): 80%<br />
8. No interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general this year: 90%<br />
9. No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza this year: 90%<br />
10. Situation in Israel looks more worse than better: 70%<br />
12. ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 90%<br />
13. ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 50%<br />
14. No major civil war in Middle Eastern country not currently experiencing a major civil war: 90%<br />
15. Libya to remain a mess: 80%<br />
16. Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: 80%<br />
17. No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party: 95%<br />
18. No major war in Asia (with >100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and American deaths combined) over tiny stupid islands: 99%<br />
19. No exchange of fire over tiny stupid islands: 90%<br />
20. No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such: 90%<br />
22. A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works: 80%<br />
23. A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work: 60%<br />
24. No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US: 99%<br />
25. No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world: 60%<br />
27. No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan to leave: 80%<br />
28. France does not declare plan to leave EU: 95%<br />
29. Germany does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%<br />
30. No agreement reached on “two-speed EU”: 80%<br />
31. The UK triggers Article 50: 90%<br />
32. Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France: 60%<br />
33. Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany: 60%<br />
34. Theresa May remains PM of Britain: 80%<br />
35. Fewer refugees admitted 2017 than 2016: 95%</p>
36. Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 60%<br />
37. Oil will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: 60%<br />
39. Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 50%<br />
40. Shanghai index will not fall > 10% this year: 50%</p>
41. Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017: 90%<br />
42. No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump: 80%<br />
44. Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton: 90%<br />
47. US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA: 90%<br />
48. US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy: 95%<br />
49. No race riot killing > 5 people: 95%<br />
51. Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent: 80%<br />
52. …lower than forty percent: 60%</p>
53. SSC will remain active: 95%<br />
55. At least one SSC post > 100,000 hits: 70%<br />
56. I will complete an LW/SSC survey: 80%<br />
58. Shireroth will remain active: 70%<br />
59. No co-bloggers (with more than 5 posts) on SSC by the end of this year: 80%<br />
61. > 15,000 Twitter followers by end of this year: 80%<br />
62. I won’t stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook: 90%<br />
63. I will attend the Bay Area Solstice next year: 90%<br />
64. …some other Solstice: 60%<br />
66. I will take the job I am currently expecting to take: 90%<br />
68. I will like the job and plan to continue doing it for a while: 70%<br />
69. I will pass my Boards: 90%<br />
70. I will be involved in at least one published/accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2017: 50%<br />
71. I will present a research paper at the regional conference: 80%<br />
72. I will attend the APA national meeting in San Diego: 90%<br />
74. None of my outpatients to be involuntarily committed to psych hospital by me during the first half of 2017: 70%<br />
75. None of my outpatients to attempt suicide during the first half of 2017: 90%<br />
77. Amazon will not harass me to get the $40,000 they gave me back: 80%<br />
78. …or at least will not be successful: 90%<br />
79. I will drive cross-country in 2017: 70%<br />
82. I will not officially break up with any of my current girlfriends: 60%<br />
83. K will spend at least three months total in Michigan this year: 70%<br />
85. I will not get engaged: 90%<br />
86. I will visit the Bay in May 2017: 60%<br />
87. I will have moved to the Bay Area: 99%<br />
88. I won’t live in Godric’s Hollow for at least two weeks continuous: 70%<br />
89. I won’t live in Volterra for at least two weeks continuous: 70%<br />
91. I won’t live in some other rationalist group home for at least two weeks continuous: 90%<br />
92. I will be living in a house (incl group house) and not apartment building at the end of 2017: 60%<br />
93. I will still not have gotten my elective surgery: 90%<br />
94. I will not have been hospitalized (excluding ER) for any other reason: 95%<br />
96. I will not be taking any nootropic (except ZMA) daily or near-daily during any 2-month period this year: 90%<br />
97. I won’t publicly and drastically change highest-level political/religious/philosophical positions (eg become a Muslim or Republican): 90%<br />
98. I will not get drunk this year: 80%<br />
99. I get at least one article published on a major site like Huffington Post or Vox or New Statesman or something: 50%<br />
101. Still driving my current car at the end of 2017: 90%<br />
102. Car is not stuck in shop for repairs for >1 day during 2017: 60%<br />
103. I will use Lyft at least once in 2017: 60%<br />
104. I weight > 185 pounds at the end of 2017: 60%<br />
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