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bayesball/WSGame7.csv

Created April 6, 2017 16:18
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Win probability data for game 7 of 2016 World Series
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WSGame7.csv
Pitcher Player Inn. Outs Base Score Play LI RE WE WPA RE24
C Kluber D Fowler 1 0 ___ 0-1 Dexter Fowler homered (Fly). 0.87 0.48 39.80% 0.102 1
C Kluber K Schwarber 1 0 ___ 0-1 Kyle Schwarber singled to shortstop (Grounder). 0.79 0.48 36.70% 0.032 0.37
C Kluber K Bryant 1 0 1__ 0-1 Kris Bryant flied out to right (Fly). 1.3 0.85 39.60% -0.029 -0.35
C Kluber A Rizzo 1 1 1__ 0-1 Anthony Rizzo flied out to center (Fliner (Fly)). 1.05 0.5 42.10% -0.025 -0.28
C Kluber K Schwarber 1 2 1__ 0-1 Kyle Schwarber advanced on a stolen base to 2B. 0.72 0.22 41.20% 0.009 0.09
C Kluber B Zobrist 1 2 _2_ 0-1 Ben Zobrist flied out to right (Fly). 1.04 0.31 44.10% -0.029 -0.31
K Hendricks C Santana 1 0 ___ 0-1 Carlos Santana flied out to right (Fliner (Liner)). 0.92 0.48 41.70% -0.023 -0.22
K Hendricks J Kipnis 1 1 ___ 0-1 Jason Kipnis struck out swinging. 0.65 0.25 40.10% -0.016 -0.15
K Hendricks F Lindor 1 2 ___ 0-1 Francisco Lindor reached on error to second (Grounder). Error by Javier Baez. 0.42 0.1 41.40% 0.013 0.12
K Hendricks M Napoli 1 2 1__ 0-1 Mike Napoli reached on fielder's choice to shortstop (Grounder). Francisco Lindor out at second. 0.83 0.22 39.10% -0.023 -0.22
C Kluber A Russell 2 0 ___ 0-1 Addison Russell flied out to shortstop (Fly). 0.82 0.48 41.10% -0.02 -0.22
C Kluber W Contreras 2 1 ___ 0-1 Willson Contreras fouled out to right (Fly). 0.58 0.25 42.60% -0.014 -0.15
C Kluber J Heyward 2 2 ___ 0-1 Jason Heyward flied out to shortstop (Fliner (Fly)). 0.38 0.1 43.50% -0.01 -0.1
K Hendricks J Ramirez 2 0 ___ 0-1 Jose Ramirez singled to third (Liner). 0.99 0.48 47.70% 0.041 0.37
K Hendricks J Ramirez 2 0 1__ 0-1 Jose Ramirez picked off. 1.69 0.85 41.00% -0.066 -0.6
K Hendricks L Chisenhall 2 1 ___ 0-1 Lonnie Chisenhall singled to left (Liner). 0.71 0.25 43.80% 0.028 0.25
K Hendricks R Davis 2 1 1__ 0-1 Rajai Davis grounded into a double play to third (Grounder). Lonnie Chisenhall out at second. 1.33 0.5 38.20% -0.057 -0.5
C Kluber J Baez 3 0 ___ 0-1 Javier Baez flied out to left (Fliner (Fly)). 0.86 0.48 40.30% -0.021 -0.22
C Kluber D Fowler 3 1 ___ 0-1 Dexter Fowler flied out to right (Fliner (Liner)). 0.61 0.25 41.80% -0.015 -0.15
C Kluber K Schwarber 3 2 ___ 0-1 Kyle Schwarber singled to right (Liner). Kyle Schwarber out. 0.41 0.1 42.80% -0.01 -0.1
K Hendricks C Crisp 3 0 ___ 0-1 Coco Crisp doubled to left (Liner). 1.08 0.48 50.30% 0.075 0.61
K Hendricks R Perez 3 0 _2_ 0-1 Roberto Perez sacrificed to first (Bunt Grounder). Coco Crisp advanced to 3B. 1.55 1.08 48.60% -0.017 -0.17
K Hendricks C Santana 3 1 __3 1-1 Carlos Santana singled to right (Liner). Coco Crisp scored. 1.72 0.92 55.70% 0.071 0.58
K Hendricks J Kipnis 3 1 1__ 1-1 Jason Kipnis reached on fielder's choice and error to shortstop (Grounder). Carlos Santana advanced to 2B on error. Error by Javier Baez. 1.32 0.5 59.60% 0.04 0.38
K Hendricks F Lindor 3 1 12_ 1-1 Francisco Lindor flied out to left (Fliner (Fly)). 2.19 0.88 54.80% -0.049 -0.46
K Hendricks M Napoli 3 2 12_ 1-1 Mike Napoli lined out to third (Liner). 1.88 0.42 50.00% -0.048 -0.42
C Kluber K Bryant 4 0 ___ 1-1 Kris Bryant singled to left (Grounder). 1.08 0.48 45.60% 0.044 0.37
C Kluber A Rizzo 4 0 1__ 1-1 Anthony Rizzo was hit by a pitch. Kris Bryant advanced to 2B. 1.79 0.85 38.90% 0.067 0.6
C Kluber B Zobrist 4 0 12_ 1-1 Ben Zobrist reached on fielder's choice to first (Grounder). Kris Bryant advanced to 3B. Anthony Rizzo out at second. 2.29 1.44 41.60% -0.027 -0.29
C Kluber A Russell 4 1 1_3 1-2 Addison Russell hit a sacrifice fly to center (Fly). Kris Bryant scored. Ben Zobrist advanced to 2B. 2.33 1.15 38.50% 0.032 0.16
C Kluber W Contreras 4 2 _2_ 1-3 Willson Contreras doubled to center (Fly). Ben Zobrist scored. 1.22 0.31 27.10% 0.114 1
C Kluber J Heyward 4 2 _2_ 1-3 Jason Heyward flied out to shortstop (Fly). 0.94 0.31 29.70% -0.026 -0.31
K Hendricks J Ramirez 4 0 ___ 1-3 Jose Ramirez grounded out to first (Grounder). 1.13 0.48 26.90% -0.028 -0.22
K Hendricks L Chisenhall 4 1 ___ 1-3 Lonnie Chisenhall flied out to left (Fly). 0.79 0.25 25.00% -0.019 -0.15
K Hendricks R Davis 4 2 ___ 1-3 Rajai Davis flied out to right (Fliner (Liner)). 0.48 0.1 23.80% -0.012 -0.1
C Kluber J Baez 5 0 ___ 1-4 Javier Baez homered (Fliner (Fly)). 0.66 0.48 15.30% 0.085 1
A Miller D Fowler 5 0 ___ 1-4 Dexter Fowler singled to left (Grounder). 0.45 0.48 13.50% 0.018 0.37
A Miller K Schwarber 5 0 1__ 1-4 Kyle Schwarber grounded into a double play to shortstop (Grounder). Dexter Fowler out at second. 0.71 0.85 17.20% -0.037 -0.75
A Miller K Bryant 5 2 ___ 1-4 Kris Bryant walked. 0.23 0.1 16.60% 0.006 0.12
A Miller A Rizzo 5 2 1__ 1-5 Anthony Rizzo singled to right (Liner). Kris Bryant scored. Anthony Rizzo advanced to 2B. 0.43 0.22 9.90% 0.067 1.09
A Miller B Zobrist 5 2 _2_ 1-5 Ben Zobrist flied out to center (Fliner (Fly)). 0.41 0.31 11.00% -0.012 -0.31
K Hendricks C Crisp 5 0 ___ 1-5 Coco Crisp grounded out to second (Grounder). 0.73 0.48 9.20% -0.018 -0.22
K Hendricks R Perez 5 1 ___ 1-5 Roberto Perez struck out looking. 0.47 0.25 8.10% -0.012 -0.15
K Hendricks C Santana 5 2 ___ 1-5 Carlos Santana walked. 0.26 0.1 9.00% 0.01 0.12
J Lester J Kipnis 5 2 1__ 1-5 Jason Kipnis singled to catcher (Grounder). Carlos Santana advanced to 3B on error. Jason Kipnis advanced to 2B. Error by David Ross. 0.57 0.22 12.10% 0.03 0.36
J Lester C Santana 5 2 _23 3-5 Jason Kipnis advanced on a wild pitch to score. Carlos Santana scored. 1.58 0.58 22.30% 0.102 1.52
J Lester F Lindor 5 2 ___ 3-5 Francisco Lindor struck out swinging. 0.52 0.1 21.00% -0.013 -0.1
A Miller A Russell 6 0 ___ 3-5 Addison Russell fouled out to first (Fly). 0.63 0.48 22.60% -0.016 -0.22
A Miller D Ross 6 1 ___ 3-6 David Ross homered (Fly). 0.46 0.25 13.70% 0.089 1
A Miller J Heyward 6 1 ___ 3-6 Jason Heyward grounded out to first (Grounder). 0.3 0.25 14.40% -0.007 -0.15
A Miller J Baez 6 2 ___ 3-6 Javier Baez struck out swinging. 0.2 0.1 14.90% -0.005 -0.1
J Lester M Napoli 6 0 ___ 3-6 Mike Napoli struck out swinging. 1.02 0.48 12.40% -0.026 -0.22
J Lester J Ramirez 6 1 ___ 3-6 Jose Ramirez grounded out to shortstop (Grounder). 0.67 0.25 10.70% -0.017 -0.15
J Lester B Guyer 6 2 ___ 3-6 Brandon Guyer singled to left (Liner). 0.37 0.1 12.10% 0.014 0.12
J Lester R Davis 6 2 1__ 3-6 Rajai Davis grounded out to second (Grounder). 0.83 0.22 9.80% -0.023 -0.22
A Miller D Fowler 7 0 ___ 3-6 Dexter Fowler singled to right (Liner). 0.33 0.48 8.50% 0.013 0.37
A Miller K Schwarber 7 0 1__ 3-6 Kyle Schwarber flied out to left (Fliner (Fly)). 0.52 0.85 9.70% -0.012 -0.35
C Allen K Bryant 7 1 1__ 3-6 Kris Bryant struck out swinging. 0.44 0.5 10.70% -0.01 -0.28
C Allen D Fowler 7 2 1__ 3-6 Dexter Fowler was caught stealing. 0.32 0.22 11.60% -0.009 -0.22
J Lester C Crisp 7 0 ___ 3-6 Coco Crisp flied out to left (Fly). 1.03 0.48 9.00% -0.026 -0.22
J Lester R Perez 7 1 ___ 3-6 Roberto Perez walked. 0.66 0.25 12.10% 0.03 0.25
J Lester C Santana 7 1 1__ 3-6 Carlos Santana grounded out to pitcher (Grounder). Tyler Naquin advanced to 2B. 1.38 0.5 9.40% -0.026 -0.19
J Lester J Kipnis 7 2 _2_ 3-6 Jason Kipnis struck out swinging. 1.03 0.31 6.50% -0.029 -0.31
C Allen A Rizzo 8 0 ___ 3-6 Anthony Rizzo out on a dropped third strike. 0.24 0.48 7.10% -0.006 -0.22
C Allen B Zobrist 8 1 ___ 3-6 Ben Zobrist grounded out to first (Grounder). 0.18 0.25 7.50% -0.004 -0.15
C Allen A Russell 8 2 ___ 3-6 Addison Russell flied out to first (Fly). 0.13 0.1 7.90% -0.003 -0.1
J Lester F Lindor 8 0 ___ 3-6 Francisco Lindor grounded out to shortstop (Grounder). 1 0.48 5.30% -0.025 -0.22
J Lester M Napoli 8 1 ___ 3-6 Mike Napoli struck out looking. 0.61 0.25 3.80% -0.015 -0.15
J Lester J Ramirez 8 2 ___ 3-6 Jose Ramirez singled to second (Grounder). 0.29 0.1 5.10% 0.013 0.12
A Chapman B Guyer 8 2 1__ 4-6 Brandon Guyer doubled to center (Fliner (Liner)). Jose Ramirez scored. 0.7 0.22 12.00% 0.069 1.09
A Chapman R Davis 8 2 _2_ 6-6 Rajai Davis homered (Fliner (Liner)). Brandon Guyer scored. 1.78 0.31 52.50% 0.405 1.79
A Chapman C Crisp 8 2 ___ 6-6 Coco Crisp singled to left (Liner). 1.01 0.1 54.90% 0.024 0.12
A Chapman Y Gomes 8 2 1__ 6-6 Yan Gomes struck out swinging. 1.78 0.22 50.00% -0.049 -0.22
C Allen D Ross 9 0 ___ 6-6 David Ross walked. 2.28 0.48 41.80% 0.082 0.37
C Allen J Heyward 9 0 1__ 6-6 Jason Heyward reached on fielder's choice to second (Grounder). Chris Coghlan out at second. 3.45 0.85 49.90% -0.08 -0.35
B Shaw J Heyward 9 1 1__ 6-6 Jason Heyward advanced on a stolen base to 2B, advanced to 3B on error. Error by Yan Gomes. 3 0.5 32.50% 0.174 0.42
B Shaw J Baez 9 1 __3 6-6 Javier Baez struck out swinging. 4.52 0.92 51.40% -0.189 -0.57
B Shaw D Fowler 9 2 __3 6-6 Dexter Fowler grounded out to shortstop (Grounder). 4.38 0.35 63.20% -0.118 -0.35
A Chapman C Santana 9 0 ___ 6-6 Carlos Santana flied out to left (Fly). 2.23 0.48 57.60% -0.056 -0.22
A Chapman J Kipnis 9 1 ___ 6-6 Jason Kipnis struck out swinging. 1.75 0.25 53.40% -0.043 -0.15
A Chapman F Lindor 9 2 ___ 6-6 Francisco Lindor flied out to right (Fly). 1.34 0.1 50.00% -0.034 -0.1
B Shaw K Schwarber 10 0 ___ 6-6 Kyle Schwarber singled to right (Grounder). 2.28 0.48 41.80% 0.082 0.37
B Shaw K Bryant 10 0 1__ 6-6 Kris Bryant flied out to center (Fly). Albert Almora advanced to 2B. 3.45 0.85 44.00% -0.022 -0.19
B Shaw A Rizzo 10 1 _2_ 6-6 Anthony Rizzo was intentionally walked. 3.27 0.66 41.90% 0.022 0.22
B Shaw B Zobrist 10 1 12_ 6-7 Ben Zobrist doubled to left (Grounder). Albert Almora scored. Anthony Rizzo advanced to 3B. 4.62 0.88 9.60% 0.322 1.48
B Shaw A Russell 10 1 _23 6-7 Addison Russell was intentionally walked. 1.09 1.36 9.50% 0.001 0.17
B Shaw M Montero 10 1 123 6-8 Miguel Montero singled to left (Grounder). Anthony Rizzo scored. Ben Zobrist advanced to 3B. Addison Russell advanced to 2B. 1.66 1.54 4.20% 0.053 1
T Bauer J Heyward 10 1 123 6-8 Jason Heyward struck out swinging. 0.74 1.54 6.50% -0.022 -0.79
T Bauer J Baez 10 2 123 6-8 Javier Baez flied out to center (Fly). 0.85 0.74 8.60% -0.021 -0.74
C Edwards Jr. M Napoli 10 0 ___ 6-8 Mike Napoli struck out swinging. 1.76 0.48 4.10% -0.044 -0.22
C Edwards Jr. J Ramirez 10 1 ___ 6-8 Jose Ramirez grounded out to shortstop (Grounder). 1.13 0.25 1.40% -0.028 -0.15
C Edwards Jr. B Guyer 10 2 ___ 6-8 Brandon Guyer walked. 0.53 0.1 4.30% 0.029 0.12
C Edwards Jr. B Guyer 10 2 1__ 6-8 Brandon Guyer advanced on defensive indifference to 2B. 1.5 0.22 4.50% 0.002 0.09
C Edwards Jr. R Davis 10 2 _2_ 6-8 Rajai Davis singled to center (Fliner (Liner)). Brandon Guyer scored. 1.6 0.31 9.40% 0.049 0.91
M Montgomery M Martinez 10 2 1__ 6-8 Michael Martinez grounded out to third (Grounder). 3.41 0.22 0.00% -0.094 -0.22
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