elliottmorris

precinct,rehmet_total,wom_total,total_2026,dem_total_2026,dem_pct_2026,trump_total,harris_total,total_2024,dem_pct_2024,diff_pct,relto
1001,200,89,289,200,69.20415224913495,646,683,1351,51.39202407825433,17.81212817088062,0.21391561806069578
1005,74,3,77,74,96.1038961038961,75,346,426,82.18527315914488,13.91862294475122,0.1807511737089202
1008,37,6,43,37,86.04651162790698,29,126,156,81.29032258064515,4.756189047261827,0.27564102564102566
1010,21,2,23,21,91.30434782608695,67,125,195,65.10416666666666,26.200181159420296,0.11794871794871795
1011,67,5,72,67,93.05555555555556,105,327,434,75.69444444444444,17.361111111111114,0.16589861751152074
1015,143,18,161,143,88.81987577639751,264,403,674,60.41979010494752,28.400085671449986,0.23887240356083086
1019,57,5,62,57,91.93548387096774,141,199,343,58.529411764705884,33.40607210626186,0.18075801749271136
1056,5,1,6,5,83.33333333333334,40,113,156,73.8562091503268,9.477124183006538,0.038461538461538464
1059,56,5,61,56,91.80327868852459,113,293,413,72.16748768472905,19.63

elliottmorris

elliottmorris

library(tidyverse)
library(janitor)
library(zoo)
library(scales)


clean_and_avg = function(series){
  dat = read_csv(sprintf('%s.csv',series))
  

elliottmorris

#' Description
#' This file runs a live election-night forecast based on The Economist's pre-election forecasting model
#' available at projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president.
#' It is resampling model based on https://pkremp.github.io/update_prob.html.
#' This script does not input any real election results! You will have to enter your picks/constraints manually (scroll to the bottom of the script).
#' 
#' Licence
#' This software is published by *[The Economist](https://www.economist.com)* under the [MIT licence](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT). The data generated by *The Economist* are available under the [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
#' The licences include only the data and the software authored by *The Economist*, and do not cover any *Economist* content or third-party data or content made available using the software. More information about licensing, syndication and the copyright of *Economist* content can be fou

elliottmorris

elliottmorris

library(tidyverse)
library(survey)

# mutate weight variable
dat = read_csv('anes_timeseries_2024_csv_20250430.csv') %>%
  filter(V241012 == 1) %>%# RVs
  mutate(weight = case_when(!is.na(V240103b) ~ V240103b,
                            !is.na(V240104b) ~ V240104b,
                            !is.na(V240104b) ~ V240104b,
                            !is.na(V240103a) ~ V240103a,

elliottmorris

library(tidyverse)
library(zoo)

dat = read_csv('~/Desktop/selected_outlays_2025-04-10.csv') %>%
  select(date, spend = `Cumulative year-to-date`) 
  

dat = tibble(
  date = ymd(as_date(min(dat$date):max(dat$date)))
) %>%

elliottmorris

library(tidyverse)
library(janitor)

dat = read_csv('~/Downloads/Trump issue approval march - Sheet1.csv')

dat = clean_names(dat)

dat %>% group_by(category) %>% 
  summarise_at(c('approve', 'disapprove', 'net'), mean) %>%
  mutate_if(is.numeric,round_half_up,1) %>%

elliottmorris

download excel file from: https://elections.countyofdane.com/Precincts-Result/179/0005

elliottmorris

library(tidyverse)

bayes_update_normal = function(
    data_mu,
    data_se,
    prior_mu = 0,
    prior_se = 3){
  
  if(all(data_mu == 0)){
    return(c(0,0))