Created
March 17, 2026 19:09
-
-
Save enjeeneer/86e24a52e6041a3d78e333bcab16984d to your computer and use it in GitHub Desktop.
This file contains hidden or bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
| title | description | resolution_criteria | fine_print | prediction_time | scheduled_resolve_time | resolution_time | training_split | resolution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a state of emergency be in effect in Samoa on April 30, 2025? | [Samoan Prime Minister declares state of emergency over power cuts](https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360634988/samoan-prime-minister-declares-state-emergency-over-power-cuts) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) Samoa is in a state of emergency that has been declared by a governmental entity with the authority to make such a declaration. | For example, the state of emergency declaration [posted](https://www.facebook.com/samoagovt/posts/hon-prime-minister-of-samoa-press-statement-proclamation-of-emergency-energy-cri/1059050259591457/) by the government of Samoa on Facebook on March 31, 2025 would count. (Note that when it was declared, it was scheduled to be in effect through April 29, 2025.) | 2025-04-21 12:00:00+00:00 | 2025-05-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-05-02 10:55:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Haley Stevens announce her candidacy for US Senator from Michigan before May 1, 2025? | CNN: [Democrats lose another top contender for US Senate seat in Michigan after Whitmer and Buttigieg bow out](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/10/politics/michigan-senate-race-democrats-mcdonald-rivet/index.html) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Haley Stevens announces her candidacy for US Senator from Michigan before May 1, 2025. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**. | 2025-04-21 14:00:00+00:00 | 2025-05-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-04-22 09:00:00+00:00 | test | True | ||
| Will Han Duck-soo announce his candidacy for South Korean president before May 5, 2025? | The Chosun Daily: [Support grows in PPP to draft Acting President Han for June election](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10464554) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Han Duck-soo announces his candidacy for president of South Korea before May 5, 2025. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**. | 2025-04-22 02:00:00+00:00 | 2025-05-05 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-05-03 21:33:00+00:00 | test | True | ||
| Will the Zimbabwe, before June 1, 2025, make another payment to white farmers whose property was seized? | [Zimbabwe reaffirms commitment to land compensation to spur growth, debt sustainability](https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2025/04/10/zimbabwe-reaffirms-commitment-to-land-compensation-to-spur-growth-debt-sustainability) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) the government of Zimbabwe after the launch of this question and before June 1, 2025 makes an additional payment to former farmers covered under the 2020 Global Compensation Deed. | On April 9, 2025, Zimbabwe [was reported](https://nehandaradio.com/2025/04/09/zimbabwe-pays-us3-1m-to-former-white-farmers-as-part-of-land-compensation-deal/) to have made its first compensation payment, of USD $3.1 million. Additional such disbursements made after the launch of this question and before June 1, 2025 would count. | 2025-04-23 14:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-02 14:05:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will the CDC raise the Travel Health Notice status of Colombia to above level 3 before June 1, 2025? | [Colombia’s Economic Emergency As Yellow Fever Outbreak Threatens Tourism And Agricultural Exports](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/colombias-economic-emergency-as-yellow-fever-outbreak-threatens-tourism-and-agricultural-exports/) | CDC: [Travel Health Notices](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Travel Health Notice status of Colombia](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/traveler/none/colombia), which is "Level 2 Practice Enhanced Precautions" at the time of this question, is a level of greater than 2 when checked by Metaculus on or after June 1, 2025. | 2025-04-23 18:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-02 18:01:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Dan Osborn announce his candidacy for US Senator from Nebraska before June 1, 2025? | Nebraska Examiner: [Nebraska’s Dan Osborn exploring midterm bid against U.S. Sen Pete Ricketts](https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2025/04/03/nebraskas-dan-osborn-exploring-midterm-bid-against-u-s-sen-pete-ricketts/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Dan Osborn announces his candidacy for US Senator from Nebraska before June 1, 2025. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**. | 2025-04-23 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-02 18:01:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will any North American country be listed as having a CDC yellow fever travel advisory on June 1, 2025? | [PAHO issues new epidemiological alert amid rising yellow fever cases in the Americas](https://www.paho.org/en/news/31-3-2025-paho-issues-new-epidemiological-alert-amid-rising-yellow-fever-cases-americas) | This question resolves as **Yes** if a country in North America is listed as having a travel advisory by the Centers for Disease Control at its [Travel Health Notices](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices) page when checked by Metaculus on or after June 1, 2025. | 2025-04-24 06:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-02 14:28:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will any of these companies get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before July 1, 2025? | Oregon Business: [Intel Ousted From Dow Jones By Rival Nvidia](https://oregonbusiness.com/intel-ousted-from-dow-jones-by-rival-nvidia/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, there is any official announcement or confirmation (or credible source reporting) that any of the following companies will no longer be a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) either on the official announcement or that the company has been or will be removed from the index: Amazon.com Inc, American Express Co, Amgen Inc, Apple Inc, Boeing Co, Caterpillar Inc, Cisco Systems Inc, Chevron Corp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Home Depot Inc, Honeywell International Inc, International Business Machines Corp, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola Co, JPMorgan Chase & Co, McDonald’s Corp, 3M Co, Merck & Co Inc, Microsoft Corp, Nike Inc, Procter & Gamble Co, Sherwin-Williams Co, Travelers Companies Inc, Unitedhealth Group Inc, Salesforce Inc, NVIDIA Corp, Verizon Communications Inc, Visa Inc, Walmart Inc, Walt Disney Co. | Although removals from the index are generally effective immediately in order to forestall frontrunning, this is not a requirement for this question. All that is required is for there to be an announcement or confirmation before the resolution date about the removal from the DJIA at any point in time. Therefore this question will resolve based on the announcement or confirmation, not on the actual removal date. | 2025-04-25 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 16:58:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Harvard University lose its tax exempt status before July 1, 2025? | New York Times: [Trump Threatens Harvard’s Tax Status, Escalating Billion-Dollar Pressure Campaign](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/us/politics/trump-harvard-tax-status.html) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any time before July 1, 2025, Harvard loses its [501(c)(3) status](https://oc.finance.harvard.edu/faq/harvard-university-tax-exempt-organization). | If there is no credible reporting that Harvard has lost its 501(c)(3) status with the Internal Revenue Service before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as No. | 2025-04-25 02:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 11:09:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before July 1, 2025? | According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf), a coup is "illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive." In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been:  * [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) * [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) * [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt) * [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) * [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) * [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt) * [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) * [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)  * [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) Latin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years: * [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022 * [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023 * [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024 See also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America before July 1, 2025, according to credible media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**. | Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French. A coup d’état (often shortened to "coup") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority.  A "successful" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant resistance to their authority has ceased.  A self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election. External support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state. Civil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms. | 2025-04-25 04:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 12:37:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Alassane Ouattara declare his candidacy for president of Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire) before June 1, 2025? | Africa Center for Strategic Studies: [Côte d’Ivoire: Efforts to Forge Resiliency Face Stiff Test](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/2025-elections/cotedivoire/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Alassane Ouattara declares his candidacy for the [2025 Ivorian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Ivorian_presidential_election), according to credible sources, before June 1, 2025. | 2025-04-29 18:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-02 13:17:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia return to the United States before July 1, 2025? | Wikipedia: [Deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_Kilmar_Abrego_Garcia) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Kilmar Abrego Garcia after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025 enters territory of the United States according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). | Subsequently leaving the United States, such as a deportation, will not cause this question to re-resolve. | 2025-05-01 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-20 09:48:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will Vietnam and South Korea announce an agreement for South Korea to export self-propelled howitzers to Vietnam? | The Korea Herald: [South Korea-Vietnam ties enter new strategic terrain, but need more detailed road map: Seoul envoy](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10464718) "Vietnam is reportedly in negotiations to import 20 units of K9 self-propelled howitzers from Korea in a deal valued at $300 million. If finalized, it would mark Korea’s first defense arms sale to the country." | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the governments of Vietnam and/or South Korea announce an agreement for South Korea to export 2 or more self-propelled howitzers to Vietnam. If no such agreement is announced after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-01 14:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 19:41:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the Global Protest Tracker report any protests in South Korea with 10,000+ participants, before July 1, 2025? | ACLED December 2024: [South Korea: Anti-government protests surge following martial law declaration](https://acleddata.com/2025/01/15/asia-pacific-overview-january-2025/#keytrends6) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Global Protest Tracker](https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en) reports a protest in South Korea with 10,000 or more participants with a start date after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-01 16:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 16:58:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before July 1, 2025? | According to Wikipedia,"North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and in 2017." | This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting such as the [International Monitoring System’s ](https://www.ctbto.org/our-work/detecting-nuclear-tests) and the sources cited at Wikipedia's [List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea). | 2025-05-01 18:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 16:58:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Before July 1, 2025, will the United States accuse Russia of invading any country other than Ukraine? | Sky News [Ukraine war: Which countries could Putin go for next? Is Europe vulnerable to a nuclear-armed bully? Your questions answered](https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-which-countries-could-putin-go-for-next-is-europe-vulnerable-to-a-nuclear-armed-bully-your-questions-answered-13317497) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the US government publicly accuses Russia of invading any country other than Ukraine, by Russia sending its ground military forces into that country without consent from the government of the country. | 2025-05-01 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 16:58:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Libya ratify AfCFTA (the pan-African free trade agreement) before July 1, 2025? | Wikipedia: [African Continental Free Trade Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Continental_Free_Trade_Area) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Libya ratifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement before July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-01 22:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:16:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will South Sudan ratify AfCFTA (the pan-African free trade agreement) before July 1, 2025? | The Star Worldwide via MSN: [World Chambers Africa Summit maps economic path for South Sudan](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/africa/other/world-chambers-africa-summit-maps-economic-path-for-south-sudan/ar-AA1CTigs?ocid=BingNewsVerp) | This question resolves as **Yes** if South Sudan ratifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement before July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-02 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 16:58:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Before July 1, 2025, will the government of Republika Srpska officially announce a date for an independence referendum? | Fair Observer: [Balkan Tinderbox: How Russia’s Moves Could Reignite Bosnia](https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/balkan-tinderbox-how-russias-moves-could-reignite-bosnia/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, a referendum on the independence of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina is officially scheduled. If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**. | For purposes of this question, the referendum will be considered "officially scheduled" when it is announced by a person or entity with the authority to do so within Republika Srpska. Please note that broader legality, such as within Bosnia and Herzegovina, will be considered irrelevant for this question, so if the Bosnian government declared the referendum illegal, the question would still resolve as Yes. | 2025-05-02 02:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 16:58:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Before July 1, 2025, will the government of Scotland officially announce a date for an independence referendum? | The National: [Yes posts huge 11-point lead in new Scottish independence poll](https://www.thenational.scot/news/25089457.yes-posts-huge-11-point-lead-new-scottish-independence-poll/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, a referendum on the independence of Scotland from the United Kingdom is officially scheduled. If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**. | For purposes of this question, the referendum will be considered "officially scheduled" when it is announced by a person or entity with the authority to do so within Scotland. Please note that broader legality, such as within the United Kingdom, will be considered irrelevant for this question, so if the federal government declared the referendum illegal, the question would still resolve as Yes. | 2025-05-02 04:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 18:24:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Before July 1, 2025, will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum? | Reuters: [Greenland's independence gradualists win election amid Trump control pledge](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greenland-election-tests-independence-ambitions-us-interest-looms-2025-03-11/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, a referendum on the independence of Greenland from the Denmark is officially scheduled. If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**. | For purposes of this question, the referendum will be considered "officially scheduled" when it is announced by a person or entity with the authority to do so within Greenland. Please note that broader legality, such as it being overturned by the government of Denmark, will be considered irrelevant for this question. | 2025-05-02 06:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 19:39:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Germany ban the AfD before July 1, 2025? | Le Monde: [Germany's Bundestag debates banning far-right AfD party](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/01/31/germany-s-bundestag-debates-banning-far-right-afd-party_6737637_4.html) "A cross-party group of 124 MPs put a motion on the agenda to bring proceedings before the Federal Constitutional Court to ban the party, whose unprecedented alliance with the CDU caused a shock." | This question resolves as **Yes** if there is an official announcement of a ban on the Alternative for Germany (AfD) by a German government entity with the authority to make such an announcement (e.g., the Federal Constitutional Court). | 2025-05-02 08:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:35:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the Global Protest Tracker report any protests in the United States with 10,000+ participants, before July 1, 2025? | Brookings Institution: [The power of protest in the US](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-power-of-protest-in-the-us/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Global Protest Tracker](https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en) reports a protest in the United States with 10,000 or more participants with a start date after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-02 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:35:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the Global Protest Tracker report any protests in India with 10,000+ participants, before July 1, 2025? | Reuters: [Three dead as protests against Muslim land law turn violent in eastern India](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/three-dead-protests-against-muslim-land-law-turn-violent-eastern-india-2025-04-14/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Global Protest Tracker](https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en) reports a protest in India with 10,000 or more participants with a start date after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025. | A protest with at least 10,000 participants that is active at the launch of this question does not count for resolution. | 2025-05-02 12:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 18:29:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Uber be available in the Turks and Caicos Islands on July 1, 2025? | [Tourism Stakeholders Warned About Encouraging Use of Illegal Taxis](https://magneticmediatv.com/2025/04/tourism-stakeholders-warned-about-encouraging-use-of-illegal-taxis/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Uber is available in Turks and Caicos as shown on the [Uber website](https://www.uber.com/us/en/search-results/?query=TURKS+AND+CAICOS) or according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). | 2025-05-02 14:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 01:11:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Niger receive a "Level 4 – Do Not Travel" travel advisory from the US State Department before July 1, 2025? | Travel and Tour World: [Niger Faces Growing Travel Risks: U.S. Travel Advisory Highlights Terrorism, Crime, and Limited Medical Care for Tourists in the Country](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/niger-faces-growing-travel-risks-u-s-travel-advisory-highlights-terrorism-crime-and-limited-medical-care-for-tourists-in-the-country/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the country of Niger has received a Level 4 [travel advisory](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Niger.html) from the US Department of State before July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-02 16:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 19:36:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Tanzania receive a "Level 3 – Reconsider Travel" travel advisory from the US State Department before July 1, 2025? | Travel and Tour World: [Travel Advisory for Tanzania: How Increased Crime and Terrorism Threats Impact Tourists in Popular African Destinations](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/travel-advisory-for-tanzania-how-increased-crime-and-terrorism-threats-impact-tourists-in-popular-african-destinations/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the country of Tanzania has received a Level 3 [travel advisory](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Tanzania.html) from the US Department of State before July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-02 18:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:36:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Mozambique receive a "Level 4 – Do Not Travel" travel advisory from the US State Department before July 1, 2025? | MSN: [ATTA issues travel advisory for Mozambique amid protests](https://www.msn.com/en-za/travel/travel-preparation/atta-issues-travel-advisory-for-mozambique-amid-protests/ar-AA1wHavB?ocid=BingNewsVerp) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the country of Mozambique has received a Level 4 [travel advisory](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Mozambique.html) from the US Department of State before July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-02 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:57:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Ethiopia receive a "Level 4 – Do Not Travel" travel advisory from the US State Department before July 1, 2025? | Travel and Tour World: [Is Ethiopia Safe for Travel? Exploring Addis Ababa’s Rich Culture Amid New Travel Warnings in 2025 : What more you need to know](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/is-ethiopia-safe-for-travel-exploring-addis-ababas-rich-culture-amid-new-travel-warnings-in-2025-what-more-you-need-to-know/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the country of Ethiopia has received a Level 4 [travel advisory](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Ethiopia.html) from the US Department of State before July 1, 2025, | 2025-05-02 22:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 19:33:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Before July 1, 2025, will Muqtada al-Sadr's Alliance Towards Reforms party announce that it will participate in the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election? | basnews: [Sadr Rejects Iraqi President’s Plea, Reaffirms Election Boycott](https://www.basnews.com/en/babat/881132) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the Alliance Towards Reforms announces that it will field candidates in Iraq's [2025 parliamentary elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iraqi_parliamentary_election). | "Alliance Towards Reforms" refers to the "**تحالف سائرون للإصلا**ح" or "سائرون" coalition, party or movement headed by Muqtada al-Sadr, as decribed at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_Towards_Reforms). Name changes will not affect resolution. | 2025-05-03 04:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 15:52:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Nigeria enact legislation exempting real estate transactions from VAT before July 1, 2025? | [FG: Tax reform bill to exempt real estate transactions from VAT, boost housing affordability in Nigeria](https://nairametrics.com/2025/04/25/fg-tax-reform-bill-to-exempt-real-estate-transactions-from-vat-boost-housing-affordability-in-nigeria/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the government of Nigeria enacts legislation exempting real estate transactions from the Value Added Tax (VAT) according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). | For example, the current iteration of the Tax Reforms Bill that is [being considered](https://brtnews.ng/tax-reforms-bill-to-exempt-real-estate-transactions-from-vat/) by the National Assembly, if it should be enacted, would count for purposes of this question. | 2025-05-05 06:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:36:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will the USDA-posted recall by ACC Central Kitchen LLC of pork bun products issued April 24, 2025 be closed before July 1, 2025? | ConsumerAffairs: [Nearly 65,000 pounds of pork buns recalled for undeclared allergen](https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/nearly-65000-pounds-of-pork-buns-recalled-for-undeclared-allergen-042525.html) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed from Active to Closed on [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/acc-central-kitchen-llc-recalls-pork-bun-products-due-misbranding-and-undeclared) before July 1, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-05 08:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:36:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Before July 1, 2025, will Ohio enact legislation expanding its verification requirements of a voter's citizenship? | The Ohio Senate: [Gavarone, Brenner Introduce Bill to Require Proof of Citizenship to Vote](https://ohiosenate.gov/members/theresa-gavarone/news/gavarone-brenner-introduce-bill-to-require-proof-of-citizenship-to-vote) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the state of Ohio enacts legislation requiring voters to provide proof of US citizenship beyond the requirements at the time of this question, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). | Any subset of voters being required to provide such proof would count (for example if it only applied to first-time voter registrants or creating a new requirement for mail-in voters). An example of a bill that would count is [Senate Bill 153](https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/legislation/136/sb153). This question resolves upon enactment; therefore other questions such as when the legislation takes effect or whether it survives court challenges and is implemented is immaterial to this question's resolution. Please note that under Ohio law, a bill is considered enacted "after both houses have passed and agreed on identical bills." ([Source](https://www.lsc.ohio.gov/assets/organizations/legislative-service-commission/files/chapter-5-enacting-legislation-10021971.pdf)) | 2025-05-05 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 15:15:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will AquaBounty Technologies file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025? | [AquaBounty Technologies Announces Full Year 2024 Financial Results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1603978/000160397825000012/aqb-20250327xex99_1.htm) | This question will resolve as **Yes** if AquaBounty Technologies, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before July 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**. | 2025-05-05 14:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 15:08:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025? | Wall Street Journal: [How ChatGPT Brought Down an Online Education Giant](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/how-chatgpt-brought-down-an-online-education-giant-200b4ff2) | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Chegg, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before July 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**. | 2025-05-05 16:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:36:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the United States accuse the People's Republic of China of invading Taiwan before July 1, 2025? | CFR: [Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-trump) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the US government publicly accuses the People's Republic of China of invading Taiwan by sending its ground military forces into Taiwan without consent from the Taiwanese government in Taipei. | 2025-05-05 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will ChargePoint file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025? | [ChargePoint Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1777393/000177739325000009/chpt8-kerfy2025q4exx991.htm) | This question will resolve as **Yes** if ChargePoint Holdings, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before July 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**. | 2025-05-05 22:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin speak on the phone with each other before June 15, 2025? | Wikipedia: [February 2025 Putin–Trump call](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2025_Putin%E2%80%93Trump_call) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, after May 12, 2025 and before June 15, 2025, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin speak on the phone with each other, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). | Both sides must acknowledge the phone call took place for it to count. "Speak on the phone with each other" is defined as both Trump and Putin, from different physical spaces, orally uttering words intended for the other individual into a telephone or equivalent device, those words being converted into electrical or digital signals in real time, and then transferred to the other individual via telecommunications links, where they are reconverted into sound waves at the other individual's listening device. | 2025-05-06 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-15 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-05-20 00:11:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Before July 1, 2025, will Florida enact legislation expanding its verification requirements of a voter's citizenship? | Tallahassee Democrat: [Florida may require proof of citizenship to vote under new legislation echoing Trump](https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/state/2025/04/02/got-id-proof-of-citizenship-may-soon-be-needed-to-vote-in-florida/82756919007/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the state of Florida enacts legislation requiring voters to provide proof of US citizenship beyond the requirements at the time of this question, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). | Any subset of voters being required to provide such proof would count (for example if it only applied to first-time voter registrants or creating a new requirement for mail-in voters). An example of a bill that would count is [HB 831](https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2025/831). This question resolves upon enactment; therefore other questions such as when the legislation takes effect or whether it survives court challenges and is implemented is immaterial to this question's resolution. | 2025-05-06 02:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 14:43:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will the US lift its sanctions on Nord Stream 2 before July 1, 2025? | [White House debates lifting sanctions on Russian energy assets, Nord Stream](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/23/white-house-debating-lifting-sanctions-on-russian-energy-assets-00306486) | This question resolves as **Yes** if NORD STREAM 2 AG does not appear at Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) [Sanctions List Search tool](https://sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/) when checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If it does appear on the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN) List at that time, then this question resolves as **No**. | At the time of this question, the current listing of Nord Stream 2 by OFAC can be found [here](https://sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/Details.aspx?id=31926). | 2025-05-06 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will the United States accuse the People's Republic of China of blockading Taiwan before July 1, 2025? | WSJ via MSN: [China Is Ready to Blockade Taiwan. Here’s How.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-is-ready-to-blockade-taiwan-here-s-how/ar-AA1BvnW8) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the US government publicly accuses the People's Republic of China of blockading at least one of Taiwan's seaports without consent from the Taiwanese government in Taipei. | 2025-05-06 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Before July 1, 2025, will the government of Alberta officially announce a date for an independence referendum? | Politico: [The quiet threat to Canadian unity isn’t Quebec — it’s Alberta](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/27/the-quiet-threat-to-canadian-unity-isnt-quebec-its-alberta-00311719) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, a referendum on the independence of Alberta from Canada is officially scheduled. If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**. | For purposes of this question, the referendum will be considered "officially scheduled" when it is announced by a person or entity with the authority to do so within Alberta. Please note that broader legality, such as within Canada, will be considered irrelevant for this question, so if the federal government declared the referendum illegal, the question would still resolve as Yes. | 2025-05-07 04:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Starlink's website show Lesotho as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025? | [Lesotho grants license to Musk's Starlink](https://www.ewn.co.za/2025/04/14/lesotho-grants-license-to-musks-starlink) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the [Starlink Availability Map](https://www.starlink.com/us/map) has anywhere in Lesotho listed as "Available." | 2025-05-07 08:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-26 18:37:00+00:00 | test | True | ||
| Will the USDA-posted recall by Cargill Kitchen Solutions of its liquid egg product for an unapproved substance issued March 28, 2025 be closed before July 1, 2025? | ABC News: [Liquid eggs recalled due to potential cleaning solution contamination](https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Food/liquid-eggs-recalled-due-potential-cleaning-solution-contamination/story?id=120329600) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed from Active to Closed on [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/cargill-kitchen-solutions-recalls-liquid-egg-products-due-unapproved-substance) before July 1, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-07 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-19 23:11:00+00:00 | test | True | ||
| Will Donald Trump and Xi Jinping speak on the phone with each other before June 15, 2025? | CBS News: [Trump says he's talked with Xi about tariffs. China has denied talks are taking place](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-xi-china-tariffs/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, after May 12, 2025 and before June 15, 2025, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping speak on the phone with each other, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). | Both sides must acknowledge the phone call took place for it to count. "Speak on the phone with each other" is defined as both individuals, from different physical spaces, orally uttering words intended for the other individual into a telephone or equivalent device, those words being converted into electrical or digital signals in real time, and then transferred to the other individual via telecommunications links, where they are reconverted into sound waves at the other individual's listening device. | 2025-05-07 16:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-15 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-08 09:19:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will the Global Protest Tracker report any protests in Turkey (Türkiye) with 10,000+ participants, before July 1, 2025? | Wikipedia: [2025 Turkish protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Turkish_protests) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Global Protest Tracker](https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en) reports a protest in Turkey (Türkiye) with 10,000 or more participants with a start date after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025. | Please note that the Global Protest Tracker uses the name Türkiye in its database. | 2025-05-07 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 14:36:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will the USDA-posted recall by LPK1 of its ready-to-eat chicken caesar wrap for misbranding and an undeclared allergen issued February 24, 2025 be closed before June 1, 2025? | Food Safety News: [Chicken Caesar wraps sold in vending machines in Washington recalled over undeclared fish](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2025/02/chicken-caesar-wraps-sold-in-veding-machines-in-washington-recalled-over-undeclared-fish/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed from Active to Closed on [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/lpk1-recalls-ready-eat-chicken-caesar-wrap-products-due-misbranding-and-undeclared) before June 1, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after that date, this question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-08 04:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-02 14:19:00+00:00 | test | True | ||
| Will WorldAtlas.com display the body of water northwest of the Caribbean Sea as the Gulf of America before July 1, 2025? | World Atlas article: [Gulf Of Mexico (Gulf of America)](https://www.worldatlas.com/gulfs/gulf-of-mexico.html) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the World Atlas website at its [North America](https://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/na.htm) page displays the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana and north of the Yucatán Peninsula as the Gulf of America. (At the time of this question, the name displayed is the Gulf of Mexico.) | In case both names are used, for example "Gulf of America formerly known as Gulf of Mexico," this question resolves as Yes. Note that verification will be from Metaculus admins accessing the webpage from the United States and that therefore resolution will be based on how the page appears when accessed from that location. | 2025-05-08 08:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025? | Beyond Meat has had several years of losses and in the most recent quarter it [posted](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial) a loss from operations of almost $38 million. | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Beyond Meat, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before July 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**. | 2025-05-08 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 14:33:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Before July 1, 2025, will the International Traditional Karate Federation announce that Egypt has been chosen to host the 2026 Traditional Karate World Championship? | VetoGate Egypt: [Ashraf Sobhi discusses hosting the 2026 World Cup with the President of the International Traditional Karate Federation](https://www.vetogate.com/5400045) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the International Traditional Karate Federation announces that Egypt has been chosen to host the 2026 Traditional Karate World Championship. | 2025-05-08 18:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Sheikh Hasina return to Bangladesh before July 1, 2025? | Firstpost: [Bangladesh has turned into a ‘terrorist country’: Sheikh Hasina targets Yunus, vows to return](https://www.firstpost.com/world/bangladesh-has-turned-into-a-terrorist-country-sheikh-hasina-targets-yunus-vows-to-return-13878191.html) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Sheikh Hasina after May 12, 2025 and before July 1, 2025 enters territory of Bangladesh according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). | The circumstances of her entering Bangladeshi territory, whether voluntarily or due to her extradition from India, will not affect resolution. | 2025-05-08 22:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will the USDA-posted recall by Johnsonville LLC of cheddar bratwurst for foreign matter contamination issued April 5, 2025 be closed before July 1, 2025? | Real Simple: [Over 22,000 Pounds of a Popular Sausage Brand Recalled Due to Contamination](https://www.realsimple.com/sausage-recall-2025-11711268) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed from Active to Closed on [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/johnsonville-llc-recalls-cheddar-bratwurst-product-due-possible-foreign-matter) before July 1, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-09 04:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-05-22 13:58:00+00:00 | test | True | ||
| Will GoPro file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025? | [GoPro Announces Fourth Quarter and 2024 Results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1500435/000150043525000003/gpro2024-12x31exh991xer.htm) | This question will resolve as **Yes** if GoPro, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before July 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**. | 2025-05-09 06:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the word "tariff(s)" disappear from the front print pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal by June 1, 2025? | Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's renewed love for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation. The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. When, if ever, will we seen tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers? | This question will resolve to "Yes" if, after \[OPEN DATE] and before June 1, 2025, the words,"tariff" or "tariffs", do not appear on the print front page of The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. The following URLs will be used to resolve the question: * The New York Times: [https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper) * Wall Street Journal: [https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250414/frontpage](https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250414/frontpage) *** <sup>Note: WSJ front page URL for April 14, 2025. Format is: yyyy-mm-dd.</sup> | Grammar is not relevant (e.g. "TARIFF" will suffice to prevent a "No" resolution). "Tariff(s)" must be omitted from both papers' front pages on the same day. "Tariff(s)" can appear anywhere on the page, it does not have to be in a title. | 2025-05-09 09:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-02 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-02 17:49:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Ramzan Kadyrov cease to be head of the Chechen Republic before June 1, 2025? | The Moscow Times: [Kadyrov Says He Wants to Step Down as Chechen Leader](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/05/06/kadyrov-says-he-wants-to-step-down-as-chechen-leader-a88991) | This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be the [Head of the Chechen Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_of_the_Chechen_Republic) before June 1, 2025, for any reason. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-12 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-02 18:18:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the NFL ban the "Tush-Push" before June 1, 2025? | ESPN: [Vote on tush push ban tabled by NFL owners for more discussion](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44490292/sources-tush-push-ban-vote-tabled-nfl-owners) | CBS Sports: [Expansive 'Tush Push' ban could have strong support at NFL's next owners meeting, per report](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/expansive-tush-push-ban-could-have-strong-support-at-nfls-next-owners-meeting-per-report/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Football League officially approves or announces a rule restricting the quarterback sneak known as the [Tush-Push](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarterback_sneak#Tush_push) before June 1, 2025. If there are no reports of this occurring before that date, this question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-12 22:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-02 13:39:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy speak on the phone with each other before June 15, 2025? | Sky News: [Key moments that have shaped Trump and Zelenskyy's relationship](https://news.sky.com/story/trump-and-zelenskyys-relationship-from-perfect-phone-call-to-oval-office-clash-13331892) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, after May 12, 2025 and before June 15, 2025, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy speak on the phone with each other, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). | Both sides must acknowledge the phone call took place for it to count. "Speak on the phone with each other" is defined as both individuals, from different physical spaces, orally uttering words intended for the other individual into a telephone or equivalent device, those words being converted into electrical or digital signals in real time, and then transferred to the other individual via telecommunications links, where they are reconverted into sound waves at the other individual's listening device. | 2025-05-13 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-15 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-05 10:30:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will the state of Texas ban THC before July 1, 2025? | Beaumont Enterprise: [Will THC see its final death blow in Texas this session?](https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/article/texas-senate-bill-aims-ban-thc-activists-call-20279801.php) | This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, Texas enacts a law prohibiting the sale of THC. If no new prohibitions on the sale of THC become law in Texas before that date, this question resolves as No. | For it to count, a law must fully prohibit the sale of THC within the state. This question resolves upon a ban being signed into law, rather than when it is implemented. An enacted law being later overturned will not cause the question to re-resolve. Partial bans (for example laws prohibiting the sale of THC to persons under 21 years of age) will not count. This question pertains to the sale of THC within the state, not to the purchase of it by individuals. | 2025-05-14 12:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Mahmoud Khalil be deported before July 1, 2025? | [Mahmoud Khalil's challenge to his detention moves forward]() | This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States deports Mahmoud Khalil before July 1, 2025. For purposes of this question,"deported" means Khalil being transported out of the territory of the United States against his will. | 2025-05-14 14:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the EPA's EnergyStar.gov still be online on July 1, 2025? | According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/climate/epa-energy-star-eliminated.html),"'The Energy Star program and all the other climate work, outside of what’s required by statute, is being de-prioritized and eliminated,' Paul Gunning, the director of the E.P.A. Office of Atmospheric Protection, told employees during the meeting, according to the recording obtained by The New York Times. Mr. Gunning’s office itself is also slated for elimination. For the past 33 years, Energy Star has been known for its recognizable blue label, which shows that an appliance has met energy efficiency standards set by the federal government." | This question resolves as **Yes** if EnergyStar.gov is online according to [Is It Down Right Now?](https://www.isitdownrightnow.com/energystar.gov.html) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. | As of May 7, 2025, the resolution source returns the message,"Energystar.gov is UP and reachable by us." | 2025-05-14 16:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 00:32:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will Circle be publicly-traded before July 1, 2025? | Forbes: [The Circle IPO Solidifies 2025 As The Year Of Stablecoins](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/04/04/the-circle-ipo-solidifies-2025-as-the-year-of-stablecoin/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if shares of Circle Internet Group, Inc. are publicly traded on New York Stock Exchange (the "NYSE") before July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-14 18:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-19 23:09:00+00:00 | test | True | ||
| Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before July 1, 2025? | JP Morgan: [Following the Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts, what could its next move be?](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range. The primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable or not timely updated. | This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before the resolution date, as long as the announcement is made before then. | 2025-05-14 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 13:51:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet have the objective of terminating the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program marked as complete before July 1, 2025? | At the time of this question, the objective was marked as "in progress." The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/). | This question resolves as **Yes** if the Project 2025 objective to "terminate the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program" is marked as complete according to [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QGG6wNHna-1tt91yXNkOauAJJ7snobFjfEnmxlmzhl4/edit?gid=0#gid=0) before July 1, 2025. If it is anything other than complete (such as "in progress") when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, then the question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-14 22:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 12:57:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Before July 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce that it is planning an IPO? | In its most recent funding talks, Anthropic [floated](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-rival-anthropic-has-floated-40-billion-valuation-in-early-talks-about-new-funding) a valuation of $40 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Anthropic, Inc., announces before July 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [News](https://www.anthropic.com/news) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-15 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Serbia announce a general election before July 1, 2025? | [Serbia could face snap elections as PM’s resignation confirmed](https://tvpworld.com/85681783/serbia-could-face-snap-elections-as-pms-resignation-confirmed-) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, a specific date on which a general election will be held is officially announced by the government of Serbia or any of its agencies that have the authority to do so. If no such announcement occurs before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. | The election does not have to be held before July 1, 2025; this question resolves based on an announcement. | 2025-05-15 02:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:37:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Starlink's website show Somalia as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025? | [Musk announces Starlink license for Somalia](https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Musk_announces_Starlink_license_for_Somalia_999.html) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the [Starlink Availability Map](https://www.starlink.com/us/map) has anywhere in Somalia listed as "Available." | 2025-05-15 04:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-03 00:08:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before July 1, 2025? | Israeli media (Hebrew): [Senior ministers were informed: There is a high chance that the US and Iran will reach an agreement](https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/895178/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the US and Iran sign or announce an agreement with respect to Iran's nuclear program. | 2025-05-15 08:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:38:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Starlink's website show Chad as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025? | [SpaceX’s Starlink Secures License to Operate in Chad](https://spaceinafrica.com/2024/11/12/spacexs-starlink-secures-license-to-operate-in-chad/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the [Starlink Availability Map](https://www.starlink.com/us/map) has anywhere in Chad listed as "Available." | 2025-05-15 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 17:38:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet have the objective of breaking up NOAA marked as complete before July 1, 2025? | At the time of this question, the objective was marked as "in progress." The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/). | This question resolves as **Yes** if the Project 2025 objective to "break up the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" is marked as complete according to [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QGG6wNHna-1tt91yXNkOauAJJ7snobFjfEnmxlmzhl4/edit?gid=0#gid=0) before July 1, 2025. If it is anything other than complete (such as "in progress") when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, then the question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-15 22:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-03 00:05:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before July 1, 2025? | [Next Ukrainian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_presidential_election) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, a specific date on which a presidential election will be held is officially announced by the government of Ukraine or any of its agencies that have the authority to do so. If no such announcement occurs before that date, this question resolves as No. | The election does not have to be held before July 1, 2025; this question resolves based on an announcement. | 2025-05-16 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 23:00:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet have the objective of stopping funding for NPR and PBS marked as complete before July 1, 2025? | At the time of this question, the objective was marked as "in progress." The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/). | This question resolves as **Yes** if the Project 2025 objective to "stop funding for NPR and PBS" is marked as complete according to [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QGG6wNHna-1tt91yXNkOauAJJ7snobFjfEnmxlmzhl4/edit?gid=0#gid=0) before July 1, 2025. If it is anything other than complete (such as "in progress") when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, then the question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-16 02:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 23:00:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025? | [Discovery of HKU5-CoV-2, a Novel Coronavirus in China](https://assure-test.com/discovery-of-hku5-cov-2-a-novel-coronavirus-in-china/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, there are any human cases reported anywhere globally of HKU5-CoV-2. | Question resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), especially the World Health Organization or US Centers for Disease Control. | 2025-05-16 04:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 23:00:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before July 1, 2025? | Wikipedia: [Proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel) | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel files an SEC Form 8-K announcing the merger agreement's termination or abandonment. | 2025-05-16 06:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 13:45:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Starlink's website show Sri Lanka as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025? | Reuters: [Musk's Starlink wins Sri Lanka licence](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/sri-lanka-regulator-grants-licence-musks-starlink-satellite-broadband-2024-08-13/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the [Starlink Availability Map](https://www.starlink.com/us/map) has anywhere in Sri Lanka listed as "Available." | 2025-05-16 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:57:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Starlink's website show Bangladesh as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025? | [Bangladeshi leader gives final approval to Musk's Starlink service](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/bangladeshi-leader-gives-final-approval-to-musks-starlink-service/3551404) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the [Starlink Availability Map](https://www.starlink.com/us/map) has anywhere in Bangladesh listed as "Available." | 2025-05-16 12:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-19 23:08:00+00:00 | test | True | ||
| Will Claude 4 be available to the general public before July 1, 2025? | PromptLayer: [Everything we know: Claude 4](https://blog.promptlayer.com/claude-4/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if a member of the general public can access Anthropic's Claude 4 model without first joining a waitlist or participating in an early access or testing phase. If Anthropic does not release Claude 4 before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. | The resolution will rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), including that it may rely on the ability of Metaculus employees to access Claude 4. "Access" may be via API, the Anthropic website, or any other method that allows interaction with Claude 4. Models that do not include both "Claude" and "4" in the name will not be considered for resolution of this question. | 2025-05-16 18:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-19 23:05:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will the US military's climate resiliance portal be back online on July 1, 2025? | The Guardian [Scientists brace ‘for the worst’ as Trump purges climate mentions from websites](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/04/trump-climate-change-federal-websites) | This question resolves as **Yes** if climate.mil is online according to [Is It Down Right Now?](https://www.isitdownrightnow.com/climate.mil.html) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. | As of May 5, 2025, the resolution source returns the message,"Climate.mil is DOWN for everyone." | 2025-05-20 06:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 01:14:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will the CDC still recommend 0.7 mg/L fluoride as the optimal level in community water supplies on July 1, 2025? | NPR: [HHS will review guidance on the addition of fluoride to drinking water](https://www.npr.org/2025/04/10/g-s1-59452/hhs-rfk-fluoride-drinking-water-epa) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the CDC's [Community Water Fluoridation Recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/fluoridation/about/community-water-fluoridation-recommendations.html) recommends greater than or equal to 0.7 mg/L as the concentration that maximizes fluoride's oral health benefits while minimizing potential harms. If a lesser amount is recommended or if there is no longer any recommendation at all, then the question resolves as **No**. | If the page is pulled offline with no replacement, this question also resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-20 08:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 01:14:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will President Trump issue a new presidential action mentioning the Diversity Visa before July 1, 2025? | [Federal judge’s order leaves many visa lottery winners out of luck](https://www.siliconvalley.com/2020/10/01/judges-order-leaves-many-visa-lottery-winners-out-of-luck/) | The American Conservative: [Trump Should Cancel the Diversity Visa Program](https://www.theamericanconservative.com/trump-should-cancel-the-diversity-visa-program/) | Mint: [US Green Card Diversity Visa 2026 Lottery results released: What you need to know](https://www.livemint.com/news/us-news/us-green-card-diversity-visa-2026-lottery-results-released-what-you-need-to-know-11746381683106.html) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, President Donald J. Trump issues a [presidential action](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) mentioning the "Diversity Visa" (using exactly those words). If this does not occur before that date, this resolves as **No**. | To count, the presidential action must be published and publicly accessible (appearing on the presidential actions section of the White House website) before the specified time. A verbal statement or other written announcement besides a presidential action (for example a post on social media), is not sufficient. | 2025-05-20 12:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 18:18:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will the USDA still list "snack foods" on its "What Can SNAP Buy?" page on July 1, 2025? | NY Post: [Americans on food stamps could be banned from buying ‘bad food and sugary drinks,’ Trump USDA chief says](https://nypost.com/2025/02/14/us-news/americans-on-food-stamps-could-be-banned-from-buying-bad-food-and-sugary-drinks-trump-usda-chief-says/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if "snack foods" is specifically listed on the United States Department of Agriculture's [What Can SNAP Buy?](https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/eligible-food-items) webpage as something that is explicitly mentioned as something that can can be purchased by recipients of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. (Forecasters please note that it *is* explicitly mentioned as of May 5, 2025.) If it is *not* explicitly mentioned when checked by Metataculus on or after July 1, 2025, this resolves as **No**. | In order to streamline resolution, synonyms will not count; the phrase must specifically be "snack foods." The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to the end of the question resolutions period, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. | 2025-05-20 14:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 00:31:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will the US State Department's Diversity Visa page still be online on July 1, 2025? | [Federal judge’s order leaves many visa lottery winners out of luck](https://www.siliconvalley.com/2020/10/01/judges-order-leaves-many-visa-lottery-winners-out-of-luck/) | [Donald Trump's 2017 tweet discussing the DV program](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/925684982307348480) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the Step 1 Submit an Entry page with instructions for registering for the Diversity Immigrant Visa (DV) Program is at [this location](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/diversity-visa-program-entry/diversity-visa-submit-entry1.html) when attempted to be accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-20 16:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 13:33:00+00:00 | test | True | ||
| Will NOAA's Climate.gov still be online on July 1, 2025? | National Security Archive: [Disappearing Data: Trump Administration Removing Climate Information from Government Websites](https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/climate-change-transparency-project-foia/2025-02-06/disappearing-data-trump) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Climate.gov is online according to [Is It Down Right Now?](https://www.isitdownrightnow.com/climate.gov.html) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. | As of May 7, 2025, the resolution source returns the message,"Climate.gov is UP and reachable by us." | 2025-05-21 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 00:31:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will the National UFO Reporting Center report a sighting of a cube-shaped UFO in June 2025? | According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): "The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals." | This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts a report of a sighting of a UFO/UAP shaped like a cube in June 2025 at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. | For example, although rare in the history of NUFORC, the month of December 2024 [had](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=e202412) six sightings with a cube shape. | 2025-05-21 04:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-29 01:06:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will a pilot report of UFOs come from a country in South America in June 2025? | For example, the resolution source [reports](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=x) a sighting in Brazil in December 2024. | This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts a pilot report of a UFO/UAP having occurred in a country on the South American continent, during the month of June 2025 at [this link](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=x) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-21 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:57:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Beto O'Rourke announce his candidacy for US Senator from Texas before July 1, 2025? | Fort Worth Star-Telegram: [Beto O’Rourke says ‘if’ Texans want him to run for U.S. Senate, ‘yes I will'](https://www.star-telegram.com/opinion/bud-kennedy) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Beto O'Rourke announces his candidacy for US Senator from Texas before July 1, 2025. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-22 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 12:54:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the Indian Armed Forces execute a kinetic attack in Pakistan proper in June 2025? | Wikipedia: [2025 India–Pakistan conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_conflict) | This question resolves as **Yes** if after May 31, 2025 and before July 1, 2025 the Indian Armed Forces execute a kinetic attack on targets in one of the following provinces of Pakistan: Sindh, Baluchistan, Punjab, or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. | To count, an attack must be [kinetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action), using explosive weaponry or physical violence. Non-kinetic actions such as a cyberattack would not count, even one resulting in deaths. | 2025-05-22 08:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 12:48:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will a pilot report of UFOs come from a country in Africa in June 2025? | For example, the resolution source [reports](https://nuforc.org/sighting/?id=186297) a 4 craft inline formation of UFOs having been sighted on January 1, 2025 in Rwanda. | This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts a pilot report of a UFO/UAP having occurred in a country on the African continent, during the month of June 2025 at [this link](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=x) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-22 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:57:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Before July 1, 2025, will Rippling announce that it is planning an IPO? | [Startup News: Shares of HR firm Rippling gain value as its business expands](https://forgeglobal.com/insights/blog/startup-news-shares-of-rippling-gain-value-as-its-business-expands/) | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Rippling, Inc., announces before July 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [news](https://www.rippling.com/blog) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-22 12:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:57:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Before July 1, 2025, will the government of Mali reverse its decision to dissolve all political parties? | [Mali's Military Government Shuts Down All Political Parties](https://www.legit.ng/world/africa/1654992-malis-military-government-shuts-political-parties/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the government of Mali announces a reversal of its May 13, 2025 presidential decree dissolving all political parties in the country. | A partial reversal, such as allowing the reinstatement of a limited number of parties, will only count as long as new parties are generally allowed to be formed again. | 2025-05-22 18:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:57:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Before July 1, 2025, will Databricks announce that it is planning an IPO? | TechCrunch: ['It's dumb to IPO this year': Databricks CEO explains why he's waiting to go public](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dumb-ipo-databricks-ceo-explains-064957000.html) | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Databricks, Inc., announces before July 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) Databricks filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [news](https://www.databricks.com/blog) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-22 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:57:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk tweet (X post) about the Diversity Visa before April 1, 2025 | [Federal judge’s order leaves many visa lottery winners out of luck](https://www.siliconvalley.com/2020/10/01/judges-order-leaves-many-visa-lottery-winners-out-of-luck/) | Recent tweet [here](https://x.com/fentasyl/status/1894451029934039492) from a Twitter/X account followed by Elon Musk. | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025 either Donald Trump or Elon Musk tweet using the exact words "diversity visa" as shown through [this search](https://x.com/search?f=top&q=%22diversity%20visa%22%20(from%3Arealdonaldtrump%20OR%20from%3Aelonmusk)&src=typed_query) on Twitter/X, which will be checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If a tweet (now renamed to X post) containing the phrase is seen by a Metaculus Admin at that time, this question resolves as **Yes**. If not, it resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-22 22:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:57:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Before July 1, 2025, will Discord announce that it is planning an IPO? | Ars Technica: [Discord is planning an IPO this year, and big changes could be on the horizon](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2025/03/report-discord-partners-with-jp-morgan-chase-goldman-sachs-for-a-2025-ipo/) | This question will resolve as **Yes** if Discord, Inc., announces before July 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [news](https://discord.com/blog) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**. | Please note that for an announcement on the news section of the company's website to resolve the question as Yes, the announcement must be specific. Vague statements such as "someday becoming a public company" will not count. If there is any doubt, then greater weight will be placed on whether an S-1 has been filed. | 2025-05-23 22:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 00:07:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025? | Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's [renewed love](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250401-tariff-man-trump-s-long-history-with-trade-wars) for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation. The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. Before July, will we see tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers? | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on any single day after May 19, 2025 and before July 1, 2025, the words "tariff" or "tariffs" appear on neither the digital version of the front page of The New York Times nor the Wall Street Journal. The following URLs will be used to resolve the question: * The New York Times: [https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper) * Wall Street Journal: [https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250515/frontpage](https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250515/frontpage) *** <sup>Note: WSJ front page URL for May 15, 2025. Format is: yyyy-mm-dd.</sup> | * Grammar or spelling will not prevent a **No** resolution. * "Tariff(s)" must be omitted from both papers' front pages on the same day. * "Tariff(s)" can appear anywhere on the page, including "Pages A2-A3 and Corrections","What's News: Business & Finance" not just the initial section at the top. The only sections that do not qualify are those that do not change between different front pages such as the "Most Popular News" or "Recommended Videos" sections on WSJ. | 2025-05-26 15:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-18 09:44:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will a country sign the Artemis Accords in June 2025? | The most recent signatory was Bangladesh, on April 8, 2025 and [Norway](https://www.state.gov/united-states-welcomes-norways-signing-of-the-artemis-accords/) on May 15, 2025. There are 55 signatories at the time of this question: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. [(source)](https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-oceans-and-international-environmental-and-scientific-affairs/artemis-accords) | This question resolves as **Yes** if a country becomes an Artemis Accord signatory after May 30, 2025 and before July 1, 2025. | 2025-05-29 14:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:57:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Senator John Fetterman cease caucusing with the Democrats before July 1, 2025? | [Fetterman says he won’t resign, gets support from McCormick as article blowback continues](https://www.pennlive.com/news/2025/05/fetterman-says-he-wont-resign-gets-support-from-mccormick-as-article-blowback-continues.html) | [An isolated, angry Fetterman is yet another challenge for Democrats](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/16/john-fetterman-senate-relationships/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, John Fetterman ceases caucusing with the [Senate Democrats](https://www.democrats.senate.gov/about-senate-dems/our-caucus) for any reason, whether because he switches parties, resigns, or any other reason. | 2025-05-29 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 23:49:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will any of these candidates be disqualified from running in the 2025 Ivorian presidential election before July 1, 2025? | BBC: [Main opposition leader removed from Ivory Coast electoral list](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0l0j849143o) | This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) any of these candidates has been removed from the electoral list or otherwise become legally ineligible to run in the [2025 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Ivorian_presidential_election) of the Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) under the laws of the country: Gnangbo Kacou, Laurent Gbagbo, Pascal Affi N'Guessan, Jean-Louis Billon, or Simone Gbagbo. | 2025-05-30 02:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-06-18 09:10:00+00:00 | test | True | ||
| Will BC Hydro still exclude Tesla from its EV charger rebate program for single-family homes in July 2025? | According to the resolution source,"The Government of B.C. and BC Hydro are taking action to preference Canadian goods in our rebate programs going forward and to exclude, where practicable, U.S. produced goods. As of March 12, 2025, Tesla products (electric vehicle chargers, energy storage batteries and inverters) are not eligible for CleanBC and BC Hydro rebates. If you purchased or have received pre-approval for your Tesla product before March 12, 2025, it can still qualify for rebates and will be processed as normal." | This question resolves as **Yes** if BC Hydro at [this page](https://www.bchydro.com/powersmart/electric-vehicles/rebates-incentives/rebates-home-chargers.html) when checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, says that Tesla products are not eligible for the EV charger at home program. If it does not mention Tesla being ineligible, then this question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-30 14:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:56:00+00:00 | test | True | ||
| Will all 10 inmates who escaped from jail in New Orleans on May 16, 2025 be recaptured before July 1, 2025? | [Manhunt continues Monday for 7 Orleans jail escapees as state launches investigation](https://www.fox8live.com/2025/05/19/manhunt-continues-monday-7-orleans-jail-escapees-state-launches-investigation/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, all 10 inmates who escaped from jail in the [2025 New Orleans jailbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_Orleans_jailbreak) have been either recaptured or killed, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If any are still at large on July 1, 2025, then the question resolves as **No**. | 2025-05-30 16:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:56:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the IMF and Lebanon announce an agreement before July 1, 2025? | [Lebanon finance minister confident of a new deal with IMF to help crumbling economy](https://www.newarab.com/news/lebanon-finance-minister-confident-new-deal-imf) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Lebanon and the International Monetary Fund announce any economic agreement between the two entities signed after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025. In order to count, it must involve the IMF agreeing to provide money to Lebanon, whether through loans, grants, or any other means. | 2025-05-30 18:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 23:32:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Russia before July 1, 2025? | Wikipedia: [List of international presidential trips made by Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presidential_trips_made_by_Donald_Trump) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, after May 19, 2025 and before July 1, 2025, President Donald Trump personally visits Russia. | 2025-05-30 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:56:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will James Comey be arrested before July 1, 2025? | [Secret Service Is Asking Comey About a Photo of Seashells Spelling ‘86 47’](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/us/politics/secret-service-comey-social-media-trump.html) | This question resolves as **Yes** if former FBI director James Comey is arrested before July 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). | In order to streamline this question's resolution, please note that an arrest anywhere in the world, for any reason, will resolve this question as Yes. For purposes of this question, we define "arrest" using the definition [posted at Nolo](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/justifies-arrest-probable-cause.html): "An arrest requires taking someone into custody, against that person's will, in order to prosecute or interrogate. It involves a physical application of force, or submission to an officer's show of force. In sum, the arrestee must not be free to leave. Whether the act by the police is termed an arrest under state law is not relevant. When deciding whether someone has been arrested, courts apply the 'reasonable man' standard. This means asking whether a reasonable person, in the shoes of the defendant, would have concluded that he or she was not free to leave." | 2025-05-30 22:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:56:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Benin re-open its closed land border crossings with Nigeria's Kwara state before July 1, 2025? | [Exclusive: Benin Rep. Closes Land Borders With Nigerian Communities Over Soya, Others' Exportation](https://www.legit.ng/nigeria/1654107-exclusive-benin-rep-closes-land-borders-nigerian-communities-soya-exportation/) | [BREAKING: Benin Republic Shuts Border With Kwara Communities Over Attacks By New Terror Group Mahmuda, Arms Smuggling – Sources](https://saharareporters.com/2025/05/08/breaking-benin-republic-shuts-border-kwara-communities-over-attacks-new-terror-group) | This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, Benin's land border crossings with Nigeria's Kwara state that were closed in May 2025 are [credibly](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reported to have been reopened. | 2025-05-31 04:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:56:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will a UN member country newly recognize Palestine in June 2025? | [UK joins France's initiative for recognition of Palestinian state](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/05/20/uk-joins-france-s-initiative-for-recognition-of-palestinian-state_6741456_4.html) | This question resolves as **Yes** if after May 31, 2025 and before July 1, 2025, a UN member country announces that it recognizes Palestine as a sovereign nation. Resolves based on Al Jazeera's [tracking page](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/10/mapping-which-countries-recognise-palestine-in-2025) or other credible sources should the tracking page not be timely updated. | 2025-05-31 06:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 23:23:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will any members of the European Parliament resign before July 1, 2025? | Euro News: [Lobbying scandal related to Huawei: What we know so far](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/05/21/lobbying-scandal-related-to-huawei-what-we-know-so-far) | This question resolves as **Yes** if a member of the European Parliament announces their resignation after June 9, 2025 and before July 1, 2025. | 2025-06-05 06:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:56:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the New York Times mention "reverse purchasing" before July 1, 2025? | People's Daily: [“Reverse purchasing” reflects the vitality of the Chinese market](http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2025/0430/c1004-40471159.html) | This question resolves as **Yes** if the NY Times mentions "reverse purchasing" in any of its content items as found through [this search](https://www.nytimes.com/search?dropmab=false&lang=en&query=%22reverse%20purchasing%22&sort=best), dated after June 9, 2025 and before July 1, 2025. This question will also count "reverse purchase," which can be found through [this link](https://www.nytimes.com/search?dropmab=false&lang=en&query=%22reverse%20purchase%22&sort=best). | 2025-06-05 12:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 21:27:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| At the end of June 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as "currently" blocking access to X (formerly Twitter)? | According to the resolution source,"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction." | This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists X (formerly known as Twitter) as currently blocked in China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Russia, Turkmenistan and Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list X as currently being blocked in any of those countries, this question resolves as **No**. | The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to July 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome. | 2025-06-05 14:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 21:22:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will the government of Uruguay announce that its president, Yamandú Orsi, will attend the BRICS summit in July 2025? | [Lula invites Mexico, Colombia, and Uruguay to BRICS Summit](https://en.mercopress.com/2025/03/04/lula-invites-mexico-colombia-and-uruguay-to-brics-summit#google_vignette) | [Uruguay’s participation at the BRICS summit still up in the air](https://www.plenglish.com/news/2025/03/02/uruguays-participation-at-the-brics-summit-still-up-in-the-air/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025 the government of Uruguay, or anyone speaking on its behalf, issues any sort of public communication (written or oral) confirming its acceptance of the invitation for President Yamandú Orsi to attend in person the BRICS Summit scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro in July 2025. | Since the summit will be held after this question resolves, actual attendance is not required, merely the announcement of plans to attend. | 2025-06-05 16:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:56:00+00:00 | test | True | |
| Will Francis Suarez announce his candidacy for Florida governor before July 1, 2025? | Axios: [Miami mayor weighs gubernatorial bid](https://www.axios.com/2025/05/02/florida-governor-miami-mayor-francis-suarez) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Francis Suarez announces his candidacy for governor of Florida before July 1, 2025. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**. | 2025-06-05 18:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:56:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Casey DeSantis announce her candidacy for Florida governor before July 1, 2025? | [Poll: Trump's endorsement boosts Byron Donalds over Casey DeSantis for Florida governor](https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/state/2025/05/09/poll-byron-donalds-surges-past-casey-desantis-with-trump-backing/83412367007/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Casey DeSantis announces her candidacy for governor of Florida before July 1, 2025. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**. | 2025-06-05 22:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:56:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will John Morgan announce his candidacy for Florida governor before July 1, 2025? | Politico: [John Morgan lays out campaign blueprint for possible Florida governor run](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/15/john-morgan-florida-governor-run-00351005) | This question resolves as **Yes** if John Morgan announces his candidacy for governor of Florida before July 1, 2025. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**. | 2025-06-06 04:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:56:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will the Botas Gas Agreement between Bulgaria and Turkey be cancelled before July 1, 2025? | [Borissov to Erdogan: Bulgaria Needs Out of the Botas Gas Deal](https://www.novinite.com/articles/232423/Borissov+to+Erdogan%3A+Bulgaria+Needs+Out+of+the+Botas+Gas+Deal) | [Bulgargaz on verge of bankrupty due to debts to Turkish gas company BOTAS: Turkish media](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/bulgargaz-on-verge-of-bankrupty-due-to-debts-to-turkish-gas-company-botas-turkish-med-3201881) | This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, the natural gas transmission agreement between Bulgargaz EAD and BOTAŞ Petroleum Pipeline Corp is announced by either party as being cancelled. | Termination of the agreement by either side, even if denied by the other side, would still count. | 2025-06-06 08:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-02 20:56:00+00:00 | test | False | |
| Will Sudan ratify AfCFTA (the pan-African free trade agreement) before July 1, 2025? | [Draft National AfCFTA Implementation Strategy for Sudan Reviewed and Validated by Stakeholders](https://igad.int/draft-national-afcfta-implementation-strategy-for-sudan-reviewed-and-validated-by-stakeholders/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if Sudan ratifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement before July 1, 2025. | 2025-06-06 10:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 21:19:00+00:00 | test | False | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit China before July 1, 2025? | Fox News: [Trump touts 'very positive' breakthrough with Xi after slamming China for trade violation](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-touts-very-positive-breakthrough-xi-after-slamming-china-trade-violation) | Wikipedia: [List of international presidential trips made by Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presidential_trips_made_by_Donald_Trump) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, after this question opens and before July 1, 2025, President Donald Trump personally visits China. | 2025-06-15 20:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 00:00:00+00:00 | 2025-07-01 21:07:00+00:00 | test | False |
Sign up for free
to join this conversation on GitHub.
Already have an account?
Sign in to comment