polls_polish_elections_2015.R

# analyse data about 2015 Polish parliamentary elections
# more info: http://smarterpoland.pl/index.php/2015/12/czy-internet-pozwala-przewidziec-wyniki-wyborow/
library(Amelia)
library(ggplot2)
library(tabplot)

# load the data
dane <- read.table("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/pbiecek/SmarterPoland_blog/master/dane/Wybory2015/2r.txt",
          header=T,
          sep="\t",
          dec=",")

# map the missing values
missmap(dane)
# overview plot
tableplot(dane,
          select = c(objekt, sm, google, sondaz), 
          sortCol = objekt)

# change the format
dane$data <- as.Date(dane$data, "%Y-%m-%d")

# plot the time series
ggplot(data=dane,aes(x=dane$data,y=sondaz)) + 
  geom_line(aes(color=objekt), size=1) + 
  scale_x_date("Date") + 
  scale_y_continuous("Opinion Poll") +
  geom_smooth(method = "loess", size = 1)

ggplot(data=dane,aes(x=dane$data,y=sm)) + 
  geom_line(aes(color=objekt), size=1) + 
  scale_x_date("Date") + 
  scale_y_continuous("Social Media") +
  geom_smooth(method = "loess", size = 1)

ggplot(data=dane,aes(x=dane$data,y=google)) + 
  geom_line(aes(color=objekt), size=1) + 
  scale_x_date("Date") + 
  scale_y_continuous("Google Trends") +
  geom_smooth(method = "loess", size = 1)

# autocorrelation
keeps <- c("google", "sm", "sondaz")
# remove NAs to run acf
daneWOdate <- na.omit(dane[keeps])
acf(daneWOdate)