Completion Probability Stability Testing

gistfile1.txt

library(tidyverse)

data <- read_csv("data/xcomp.csv")

data_joined <- data %>%
   mutate(season2 = Season + 1) %>%
   inner_join(data, by = c("NAME", "season2" = "Season"))

model_expected <- lm(data = data_joined, `xCOMP%.y` ~ `xCOMP%.x`)
summary(model_expected)

model_plus_minus <- lm(data = data_joined, `+/-.y` ~ `+/-.x`)
summary(model_plus_minus)

comp_oe <- read_csv("data/__qb_yards_expected.csv")

two_year_comp_airyards <- comp_oe %>%
   filter(season_year %in% c(2016:2017)) %>%
   mutate(season2 = season_year + 1) %>%
   filter(att >= 128) %>%
   mutate(plus_minus = (comp / att) - expected_completion_pct)

two_year_comp_airyards_joined <- two_year_comp_airyards %>%
   inner_join(two_year_comp_airyards, by = c("player_id", "season2" = "season_year"))

model_airyards_expected <- lm(data = two_year_comp_airyards_joined, expected_completion_pct.y ~ expected_completion_pct.x)
summary(model_airyards_expected)

model_airyards_plus_minus <- lm(data = two_year_comp_airyards_joined, plus_minus.y  ~ plus_minus.x)
summary(model_airyards_plus_minus)