Andrew Noymer's US death tolls gut-check estimates published daily on Twitter

noymer-gut-check.r

#===============================================================================
# 2020-05-06 -- twitter
# Andrew Noymer's update of the total US covid deaths
# Ilya Kashnitsky, ilya.kashnitsky@gmail.com
#===============================================================================

library(rtweet)
library(httr)
library(tidyverse)
library(hrbrthemes)
library(ggdark)

options(scipen = 9999)

raw <- get_timeline(user = "AndrewNoymer", n = 3200)

est <- raw %>% 
    filter(text %>% str_detect("gut-check"), 
           text %>% str_detect("VERY")) %>% 
    transmute(
        created_at,
        estimate = text %>% 
            str_sub(-52, -1) %>% 
            str_remove_all(",") %>% 
            str_extract("(\\d)+") %>% 
            as.numeric()
    )

est %>% 
    ggplot(aes(created_at, estimate))+
    geom_path()+
    geom_point()+
    scale_y_comma(limits = c(0, 1.4e6))+
    dark_theme_minimal(base_family = font_rc)+
    labs(x = NULL, y = "Estimate",
         title = "Andrew Noymer's US death tolls gut-check estimate")