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No, your cryptocurrency cannot work

No, your cryptocurrency cannot work

Whenever the topic of Bitcoin's energy usage comes up, there's always a flood of hastily-constructed comments by people claiming that their favourite cryptocurrency isn't like Bitcoin, that their favourite cryptocurrency is energy-efficient and scalable and whatnot.

They're wrong, and are quite possibly trying to scam you. Let's look at why.

What is a cryptocurrency anyway?

There are plenty of intricate and complex articles trying to convince you that cryptocurrencies are the future. They usually heavily use jargon and vague terms, make vague promises, and generally give you a sense that there must be something there, but you always come away from them more confused than you were before.

That's not because you're not smart enough; that's because such articles are intentionally written to be confusing and complex, to create the impression of cryptocurrency being some revolutionary technology that you must invest in, while trying to obscure that it's all just smoke and mirrors and there's really not much to it.

So we're not going to do any of that. Let's look at what cryptocurrency really is, the fundamental concept, in simple terms.

A cryptocurrency, put simply, is a currency that is not controlled by an appointed organization like a central bank. Instead, it's a system that's built out of technical rules, code that can independently decide whether someone holds a certain amount of currency and whether a given transaction is valid. The rules are defined upfront and difficult for anybody to change afterwards, because some amount of 'consensus' (agreement) between the systems of different users is needed for that. You can think of it kind of like an automated voting process.

Basically, a cryptocurrency is a currency that is built as software, and that software runs on many people's computers. On paper, this means that "nobody controls it", because everybody has to play by the predefined rules of the system. In practice, it's unfortunately not that simple, and cryptocurrencies end up being heavily centralized, as we'll get to later.

So why does Bitcoin need so much energy?

The idea of a currency that can be entirely controlled by independent software sounds really cool, but there are some problems. For example, how do you prevent one person from convincing the software that they are actually a million different people, and misusing that to influence that consensus process? If you have a majority vote system, then you want to make really sure that everybody can only cast one vote, otherwise it would be really easy to tamper with the outcome.

Cryptocurrencies try to solve this using a 'proof scheme', and Bitcoin specifically uses what's called "proof of work". The idea is that there is a finite amount of computing power in the world, computing power is expensive, and so you can prevent someone from tampering with the 'vote' by requiring them to do some difficult computations. After all, computations can be automatically and independently checked, and so nobody can pretend to have more computing power than they really do. So that's the problem solved, right?

The underlying trick here is to make a 'vote' require the usage of something scarce, something relatively expensive, something that you can't just infinitely wish into existence, like you could do with digital identities. It makes it costly in the real world to participate in the network. That's the core concept behind a proof scheme, and it is crucial for the functioning of a cryptocurrency - without a proof scheme requiring a scarce resource of some sort, the network cannot protect itself and would be easy to tamper with, making it useless as a currency.

To incentivize people to actually do this kind of computation - keep in mind, it's expensive! - cryptocurrencies are set up to reward those who do it, by essentially giving them first dibs on any newly minted currency. This is all fully automated based on that predefined set of rules, there are no manual decisions from some organization involved here.

Unfortunately, we're talking about currencies, and where there are currencies, there is money to be made. And many greedy people have jumped at the chance of doing so with Bitcoin. That's why there are entire datacenters filled with "Bitcoin miners" - computers that are built for just a single purpose, doing those computations, to get a claim on that newly minted currency.

And that is why Bitcoin uses so much energy. As long as the newly minted coins are worth slightly more than the cost of the computations, it's economically viable for these large mining organizations to keep building more and more 'miners' and consuming more and more energy to stake their claim. This is also why energy usage will always go up alongside the exchange rate; the more a Bitcoin is 'worth', the more energy miners are willing to put into obtaining one.

And that's a fundamental problem, one that simply cannot be solved, because it is so crucial to how Bitcoin works. Bitcoin will forever continue consuming more energy as the exchange rate rises, which is currently happening due to speculative bubbles, but which would happen if it gained serious real-world adoption as well. If everybody started using Bitcoin, it would essentially eat the world. There's no way around this.

Even renewable energy can't solve this; renewable energy still requires polluting manufacturing processes, it is often difficult to scale, and it is often more expensive than fossil fuels. So in practice, "mining Bitcoins on renewable energy" - insofar that happens at all - means that all the renewable energy you are now using could not be distributed to factories or households, and they have to continue running on non-renewable energy instead, so you're just shuffling chairs! And because of the endless growth of Bitcoin's energy consumption, it is pretty much guaranteed that those renewable energy resources won't even be enough in the end.

So there's this proof-of-stake thing, right?

You'll often see 'proof of stake' mentioned as an alternative proof scheme in response to this. So what is that, anyway?

The exact implementations vary and can get very complex, but every proof-of-stake scheme is basically some variation of "instead of the scarce resource being energy, it's the currency itself". In other words: the more of the currency that you own, the more votes you have, the more control you have over how the network (and therefore the currency) works as a whole.

You can probably begin to see the problem here already: if the currency is controlled by those who have most of it, how is this any different from government-issued currency, if it's the wealthy controlling the financial system either way? And you'd be completely right. There isn't really a difference.

But what you might not realize, is that this applies for proof-of-work cryptocurrencies too. The frequent claim is that Bitcoin is decentralized and controlled by nobody, but that isn't really true. Because who can afford to invest the most in specialized mining hardware? Exactly, the wealthy. And in practice, almost the entire network is controlled by a small handful of large mining companies and 'mining pools'. Not very decentralized at all.

The same is true for basically every other proof scheme, such as Chia's "proof of space and time", where the scarce resource is just "free storage space". Wealthy people can afford to buy more empty harddrives and SSDs and gain an edge. Look at any cryptocurrency with any proof scheme and you will find the same problem, because it is a fundamental one - if power in your system is handed out based on ownership of a scarce resource of some sort, the wealthy will always have an edge, because they can afford to buy whatever it is.

In other words: it doesn't actually matter what the specific scarce resource is, and it doesn't matter what the proof scheme is! Power will always centralize in the hands of the wealthy, either those who already were wealthy, or those who have recently gotten wealthy with cryptocurrency through dubious means.

The only redeeming feature of proof-of-stake (and many other proof schemes) over proof-of-work is that it does indeed address the energy consumption problem - but that's little comfort when none of these options actually work in a practical sense anyway. This is ultimately a socioeconomic problem, not a technical one, and so you can't solve it with technology.

And that brings us to the next point...

Yes, cryptocurrencies are effectively pyramid schemes

While Bitcoin was not originally designed to be a pyramid scheme, it is very much one now. Nearly every other cryptocurrency was designed to be one from the start.

The trick lies in encouraging people to buy a cryptocurrency. Whoever is telling you that their favourite cryptocurrency is the real deal, the solution to all problems, probably is holding quite a bit of that currency, and is waiting for it to appreciate in value so that they can 'cash out' and turn a profit. The way to make that value appreciation happen, is by trying to convince people like you to 'invest' or 'get in' on it. If you buy the cryptocurrency, that will drive up the price. If a lot of people buy the cryptocurrency, that will drive up the price a lot.

The more hype you can create for a cryptocurrency, the more profit potential there is in it, because more people will 'buy in' and drive up the price before you cash out. This is why there are flashy websites for cryptocurrencies promising the world and revolutionary technology, this is why people on Twitter follow you around incessantly spamming your replies with their favourite cryptocurrency, this is why people take out billboards to advertise the currency. It's a pump-and-dump stock.

This is also the reason why proponents of cryptocurrencies are always so mysterious about how it works, invoking jargon and telling you how much complicated work 'the team' has done on it. The goal is to make you believe that 'there must be something to it' for long enough that you will buy in and they can sell off. By the time you figure out it was all just smoke and mirrors, they're long gone with their profits.

And then the only choice to recoup your investment is for you to hype it up and try to replicate the rise in value. Like a pyramid scheme.

The bottom line

Cryptocurrency as we know it today, simply cannot work. It promises to decentralize power, but proof schemes necessarily give an edge to the wealthy. Meanwhile there's every incentive for people to hype up worthless cryptocurrencies to make a quick buck, all the while disrupting supply chains (GPUs, CPUs, hard drives, ...), and boiling the earth through energy usage that far exceeds that of all of Google.

Maybe some day, a legitimate cryptocurrency without Bitcoin's flaws will come to exist. If it does, it will be some boring research paper out of an academic lab in three decades, not a flashy startup promising easy money or revolutionary new tech today. There are no useful cryptocurrencies today, and there will not be any at any time in the near future. The tech just doesn't work.


Moderation note: Because of the hype and manipulation issues explained above, I will be very strictly moderating these comments. Anything that vaguely looks like shilling or bad-faith arguing will be deleted unceremoniously, and the poster reported. That includes complaints about the moderation policy. It's up to you to make it obvious that you are discussing in good faith.

@dm17
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dm17 commented Dec 19, 2021

@assignonward Sure, but you recommended his writings as useful to study in this thread more than a couple of times. Marxist/Communism/Leftist/Globalism/Technocracy/Equity/Progressivism share a lot of the same nonsense, tactics, and promoters these days.
Bank has guns, do you have guns? Bank has government backing - do you?

"Cryptokeys are just random numbers" -> Yes, but you're reading it on another level. You're in the concept. In reality, you print out this seemingly random string of numbers on paper and it serves no real function. People are in the digital world and don't understand what value even is anymore because they're so detached from the real world. I don't like getting bogged down in these minutiae; my original post has all unanswered questions as far as I can see in this thread. One of my points, for example:
--there is way more fiat that crypto (market cap, etc).
--this fiat can be printed at will
--this fiat can be used to buy cryptocurrencies

And there are so many more avenues for attack / manipulation, but if my above example doesn't make the weaknesses of cryptocurrency vs "old money" and "old games" obvious, then I don't know what to say to help you see it.

@assignonward
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@dm17 just because something is recommended as useful to study doesn't mean it's worth following.

"In reality, you print out this seemingly random string of numbers on paper and it serves no real function." but the numbers are far from random, they are a digital proof that something has not been "spent" yet - only the holder of the secret number controlling the value can "spend" the value associated with that string of far-from-random numbers.

From earlier: "No yield. No return. Not insured. Not backed by anything." - and this is the magic of crypto vs state (police, courts, etc.) backed fiat. They're both fiat, people love to hate fiat, but fiat has worked pretty well for 100+ years - the biggest problem I see today is that the rich continue get richer, but that's not new to fiat, or even unique to this millennia - it borders on a natural law, one that I believe civilization would benefit from restraining, but that's my view - not that of the 0.1% and up most wealthy who are defacto mostly in control.

Crypto is "working" with no backing, no insurance, no enforcement. THAT is the power, and I'd say the ability for anyone to create and use their own fiat is an untapped level of that power that could be disruptive, revolutionary, and potentially even beneficial to the less than super-wealthy, for once.

The many avenues for attack / manipulation are mostly thwarted by transparency, vigilance, and development of automatic agents recognizing the attacks in progress.

@KiraSmith-Dev
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All these people holding USD bashing on crypto, they must just want to cash out! They're incentivized to do so, to make money, you know! The more USD you have, the easier it is to make it! Truly a socioeconomic problem. My point is, there's not a difference. You talk about problems that aren't unique to cryptocurrency. These are problems with currency.

@mk-pmb
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mk-pmb commented Mar 26, 2022

All these people holding USD […], they must just want to cash out!

Was this meant as irony? Because indeed, if you're clever, you only hold a limited amount in USD and invest the excess in something that at least compensates inflation.

@shikari7
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shikari7 commented Apr 10, 2022

Blockchain is a solution looking for a requirement. It's uses outside of crypto/NFT/web3 casinos are almost nonexistent. It's been around since the 80's and if there was a strong use case, we would know by now.

@pateljoel I see no purpose for USDC or CBDC. The $ is already digital and anything (legal) that can be done with USDC or CBDC can already be done (legally) by the $. If it hasn't been implemented for the $ yet, it's ONLY because the implementers of whatever this feature is with cryptocurrency are trying to avoid the laws around taxes or money laundering and it's probably illegal anyway. And for good reason, the 500 years of history of finance demonstrates that magic tokens like cryptocurrency always create a bubble of pure fraud.

Also note @assignonward cryptocurrency is patently NOT decentralized. https://bitcoinera.app/arewedecentralizedyet/

I recommend everyone watch this presentation by Nicholas Weaver @ Berkeley: Blockchains and Cryptocurrencies: Burn It With Fire (Nicholas Weaver)

https://youtu.be/xCHab0dNnj4

Also this TEDx talk why Bitcoin (and by extension all cryptocurrency) are Ponzi schemes.

https://youtu.be/UK0ATammdRo

@shikari7
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Hey @pateljoel - to catch up to your other thoughts - I hear you about wanting to use crypto to send to family and friends or buy things. Watch the videos I linked above please, and let me know your thoughts, would love to chat with you about it. And see below on the morality of it.

About your question re: utility - no, how you spend crypto and what tools you use, or are able to use instead of a credit card, is not "inherent" utility. Wheat has inherent utility because it has productive use cases such as for food. Gold, same. Oil, same. Steel or iron or lumber, same. Even stock has intrinsic utility - usually it generates dividends and it represents a creative concern that is producing goods and services and paying wages. Crypto has none of that. It's just a random number stored in a database that for some reason (deceptive marketing, technology hand waving and people like Mark Cuban who is invested in it and knows the only way he can get a return is to convince more people to buy it) people think has value. Why would a number stored in a database in and of itself have value? Every grain of wheat has value intrinsically. Random numbers do not.

A lot of people think because it's "so easy" or "so cheap fees-wise" to use crypto that that is it's utility. No, that is strictly a factor of the technology and tools. Do you really think that if crypto were the only game in town, that the fees would stay low? Remember nobody has any influence on the self appointed elites controlling crypto. And when money is involved and there are no checks or balances, corruption is the only game in town. Secondly, the tools and tech used to exchange gold are not why gold has value. The grain exchange is not why wheat has value.

I like what @dm17 said - I feel the same - cryptocurrency is immoral.

I've been tempted many times going back to ~2012 to 'invest' or set up a miner - but I always come around to the fact that it's a Ponzi scheme and any participation in that Ponzi scheme supports that Ponzi scheme, which when it collapses (as they inevitably always do) is going to HURT A LOT OF PEOPLE. Some will (and have) come out ahead but they only come out ahead at everyone else's expense since it's a ZERO SUM SYSTEM.

@eqn-group
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Monero ?

@BeholdersEye
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Bitcoin: That and ten minutes will get you a block, friendo.

@Saiv46
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Saiv46 commented Nov 11, 2022

Great gist, I hope there will be cryptocurrency that does not rely on proof-of-[something scarce]. Fediverse already proved that we do not need waste electricity and make scams to have decentralized social networking.

Maybe some day, a legitimate cryptocurrency without Bitcoin's flaws will come to exist. If it does, it will be some boring research paper out of an academic lab in three decades, not a flashy startup promising easy money or revolutionary new tech today.

But if anyone still have hope in cryptocurrencies, check this out: arXiv:1903.01589 [cs.CR]
That paper is attempt to make PoS algorithm that does not suck at performance, but it'll be boring for greedy idiots, which now are the majority of crypto-"investors".

@robertknutzen
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Great gist, I hope there will be cryptocurrency that does not rely on proof-of-[something scarce].

It already exists, its called nocoin

@nfd9001
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nfd9001 commented Jan 12, 2023

Great post @robertknutzen. Here's a tip of 15 dabloons.

@robertknutzen
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@nfd9001 I'm delighted to learn that tiktok has a fork of nocoin going on. It truly does run on the collective consciousness

@shikari7
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shikari7 commented Mar 8, 2024

@whelme Market cap for a Ponzi scheme doesn't make it not a Ponzi scheme.

What you still don't seem to understand is, crypto has zero (in fact negative when you account for the energy costs of generating it) intrinsic utility.

It is the ONLY actively traded asset in the world that has no intrinsic utility. Zero sum. Ponzi schemes have zero intrinsic utility. Crypto is a decentralized Ponzi scheme. It is digital monopoly money.

It does not inherently create goods or services or represent something that does, like every other asset in the world.

There is NO getting around this.

@dm17
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dm17 commented Mar 8, 2024

While I think Monero is the best implementation, I don't see anything that will keep trust in any cryptos if BTC ever loses trust / fails. I think it is all a testbed for the next global banking system(s). Funny how no one here has yet mentioned the irony of satoshi nakamoto translating to "central intelligence" ;)

@mk-pmb
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mk-pmb commented Mar 8, 2024

@shikari7
Creating demand for electricity can itself be a utility for someone who sells electricity or fuel, won't it?

@shikari7
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shikari7 commented Mar 9, 2024

@mk-pmb sorry, no that's not how that works. Using electricity to generate random numbers? How is that creating utility? Intrinsic utility is that which is or directly represents something that is a good or service. Random numbers do not have intrinsic utility. That's why it is digital monopoly money.

However, the use of electricity (or fuel) to generate those random numbers is why "crypto" (it's not) "currency" (it's not) is technically a negative sum system, not a zero sum system. Because (two years ago) 900 Bitcoin "mined" daily at a cost of $45M/day in electricity needs to be recovered just to break even. And since a zero sum system has no net revenue coming in, it will never recover that $45M/day. It only appears to because enough fools are buying it every day to keep up appearances and lure more fools. That's literally how Ponzi schemes work.

Also because more than half of all Bitcoin trades every day are wash trades. Wash trades are illegal in real markets. For a reason.

There are 4 entities in control of >50% of all Bitcoin voting power. This is similar for almost all cryptocurrencies. 51% of all Dogecoin is owned by the top 100 accounts, so when you buy Dogecoin you are only helping them get rich off that Ponzi scheme.

I note that @assignonward was unable to explain the material difference between monkey jizz and bitcoin. That's because there isn't any. They are just two finite sets of random numbers.

@dm17
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dm17 commented Mar 17, 2024

@AdamsMargot You write like a scam artist, so maybe we should keep your post in here to help prove the overall point.

@nfd9001
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nfd9001 commented Mar 17, 2024

@AdamsMargot You write like a scam artist, so maybe we should keep your post in here to help prove the overall point.

Github's pretty responsive to replying to reports of crypto spam comments, IME. (No need to spam them with this one comment; already done 😆)

@shikari7
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Great gist, I hope there will be cryptocurrency that does not rely on proof-of-[something scarce]. Fediverse already proved that we do not need waste electricity and make scams to have decentralized social networking.

Maybe some day, a legitimate cryptocurrency without Bitcoin's flaws will come to exist. If it does, it will be some boring research paper out of an academic lab in three decades, not a flashy startup promising easy money or revolutionary new tech today.

But if anyone still have hope in cryptocurrencies, check this out: arXiv:1903.01589 [cs.CR] That paper is attempt to make PoS algorithm that does not suck at performance, but it'll be boring for greedy idiots, which now are the majority of crypto-"investors".

The problem with all of this @Saiv46 is that even though it's not negative sum, it's still zero sum. It's still digital monopoly money. Still just a finite set of random numbers, which have no intrinsic utility like every other asset in the world. What makes random numbers valuable?

Nothing. #ponzi

@HillYasmina
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@AdamsMargotВы пишете как мошенник, так что, возможно, нам стоит оставить ваш пост здесь, чтобы доказать общую точку зрения.

Github очень быстро реагирует на сообщения о комментариях о криптоспаме, IME. (Не нужно спамить их одним этим комментарием; уже сделано 😆)
Just because I want to share an interesting resource doesn't mean I'm a spammer. Why do you think that if someone gives you a piece of advice, it's not true?

@ShalokShalom
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ShalokShalom commented Apr 12, 2024

Its probably save to go with Yanis Varoufakis, so I am going to say the fact
that it has a capped market value, is the reason why it cannot work.

I think its quite realistic to believe, that we humans find solutions to problems, if we want to.
The reason why Bitcoin and Co use the consensus protocol, that they do?

Because it makes them money. Their energy inefficency is not a technical problem, its the appeal.
Its a feature, not a bug.

For modern implementations, I got told IOTA has a solution for that.
Not for the greediness, sadly.

@dm17
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dm17 commented Apr 13, 2024

I think its quite realistic to believe, that we humans find solutions to problems, if we want to.

The problem is not in the domain of technology but in the domain of people. Of living life; of spirituality. But everyone has been taught this domain does not even exist. Only matter exists aka materialism. This is why materialists who think they can solve humanity's problems with technology are merely ideologically possessed and anyone with eyes can see they can't even solve their own fundamental personal/interpersonal issues (much less everyone else's).

So whether it is designed by good meaning (bug) or bad meaning (feature) people - it does not matter. It is the same ideological possession at heart.

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