jonnyspicer

{
  "scored_predictions": [
    {
      "concrete_prediction": "Automation alleviates tedious work.",
      "resolution_year": 2014,
      "prediction_year": 1964,
      "score": {
        "score": 0,
        "rationale": "Okay, I need to score the prediction made in 1964 about automation alleviating tedious work in 2014. Let me start by understanding the query and the provided search results.\n\nFirst, the prediction is that automation would reduce tedious tasks by 2014. I have to check if this happened. The user provided several sources, so I'll go through them to find evidence.\n\nLooking at source , it talks about robotic process automation (RPA) becoming prominent in 2014, especially in business processes. It mentions automating tasks like copying and pasting, which are tedious. That supports the prediction.\n\nSource  discusses technological unemployment, with experts in 2014 noting that automation was displacing jobs. While this focuses on job loss, it implies that automation was taking over tasks, pos

jonnyspicer

{
  "scored_predictions": [
    {
      "concrete_prediction": "By 2022, GPT-3 will be considered obsolete due to the emergence of more advanced multimodal transformer models developed by major companies.",
      "resolution_year": 2022,
      "prediction_year": 2021,
      "score": {
        "score": 0,
        "rationale": "The prediction claimed that by 2022 GPT-3 would be considered obsolete due to new, advanced multimodal transformer models from major companies. However, while multimodal models (like DALL-E 2) did emerge in 2022, GPT-3 itself remained widely used and influential. It continued to serve as a foundational model for many applications, and its derivatives (such as the models behind ChatGPT) built upon its architecture rather than rendering it obsolete."
      }