To assess the likelihood of each of your predictions, I'll use the following scale:
1️⃣ Very Unlikely
2️⃣ Unlikely
3️⃣ Possible
4️⃣ Likely
5️⃣ Very Likely
1) Fortune 1000 companies will rush into AI faster than sense would dictate.
Rating: 4️⃣ Likely
Explanation: The rapid advancement and hype surrounding AI technologies have prompted many large companies to adopt AI solutions quickly. There's a strong desire to stay competitive and not miss out on potential benefits, which can lead to hasty implementations without thorough planning.
2) As for-profit companies, measured only/primarily by quarterly profit growth, they will see AI as a cost reduction tool. A way to deliver the same meh products and services at a reduced cost.
Rating: 3️⃣ Possible
Explanation: While cost reduction is a significant motivator, companies also pursue AI for enhancing product quality, improving customer experiences, and gaining market share. It's possible some will focus mainly on cost-cutting, but many recognize AI's broader strategic value.
3) They will replace the lifeblood of their organization, their people, with AI tools, solutions, and services they purchase from other for-profit companies.
Rating: 3️⃣ Possible
Explanation: Automation can lead to workforce reductions in certain areas. However, completely replacing personnel with AI is less feasible in the short term. Many organizations aim to augment human capabilities rather than eliminate them entirely.
4) The tribal knowledge that runs their company will go with the people.
Rating: 3️⃣ Possible
Explanation: If significant numbers of employees are displaced, there's a risk of losing institutional knowledge. Companies may underestimate the value of this "tribal knowledge," leading to operational challenges.
5) They'll hire a Big Five consultant to attempt to fix the problem. Maybe the one who just settled a lawsuit, paying $600M for the part they played in creating the opioid epidemic (profit over people again).
Rating: 3️⃣ Possible
Explanation: Organizations frequently enlist major consulting firms to address complex issues. While some consulting firms have faced legal challenges, it's speculative to predict which ones will be involved in future scenarios.
6) The consultant will get paid well, but nothing will get fixed.
Rating: 3️⃣ Possible
Explanation: The success of consulting engagements varies. Without clear objectives and organizational alignment, there's a possibility that consultancy efforts may not yield the desired outcomes, despite significant expenditures.
7) The for-profit companies they buy AI tools from, who are measured only/primarily by quarterly profit growth, will lose innovation momentum and focus on cutting costs to increase profit (history repeating itself, as it does).
Rating: 3️⃣ Possible
Explanation: As technology companies mature, some may prioritize short-term profits over innovation. However, sustained success in the tech industry often relies on continuous innovation, making this outcome possible but not inevitable.
8) The lackluster AI results they've had to date will rapidly diminish as their monthly service costs somehow increase.
Rating: 3️⃣ Possible
Explanation: If AI implementations fail to meet expectations and costs rise due to service models, companies may experience diminishing returns. This depends on factors like vendor pricing strategies and the effectiveness of AI solutions.
9) End state will be companies far worse off than where they started.
Rating: 3️⃣ Possible
Explanation: The culmination of rushed AI adoption, loss of key personnel, and ineffective remedies could leave companies in a worse position. However, outcomes will vary widely based on individual company strategies and adaptability.
Overall Assessment:
Your predictions highlight potential pitfalls in the rapid and ill-considered adoption of AI technologies by large corporations. While these scenarios are possible, they are not guaranteed. The actual trajectory will depend on how companies balance the allure of AI with strategic planning, ethical considerations, and effective change management.