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Explanation of NYC's 9/11 Boom.
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Real estate (like oil in the short term, cf. "oil shocks" of the 1970s) is extremely supply-inelastic, | |
such that a 1% loss of supply might cause prices to go up *a lot* more than 1%-- possibly 10%, 20%, | |
even 2x. The result of this is that a destruction of real estate supply will actually increase the | |
*total* market value: a cataclysmic loss of 5% of NYC's real estate would drive prices through the roof | |
and make the price level look "healthy" (from the buyer-centric perspective common in the US when it | |
comes to housing). But no value was created! Much was destroyed. | |
The 2000s run-up in NYC's housing costs was driven largely by speculation after 9/11. While we | |
*actually* had 12+ subsequent years with no major domestic terror attacks, there were a large number of | |
(esp. foreign) speculators who expected future attacks in major cities and bought lots of RE in | |
anticipation of massive supply destruction. That destruction never happened, but the bubble developed | |
its own momentum, and later dovetailed with the (originally separate) worldwide housing bubble (due | |
to a weak stock market). |
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