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We are not living in a computer simulation (must revisit this argument...)

We are not living in a computer simulation

Legend

  1. □ =def know
  2. ◇ =def for all we know

Premises

P1 It is highly improbable that the humans will reach
   the post-human stage.

S1 It is highly unlikely that our descendants will,
   for whatever reason, run a sufficient number of 
   simulations of their own evolutionary history.

L1 We are almost certainly living in a computer
   simulation.

Bostrom claims,

It follows that the belief that there is a significant 
chance that we will one day become posthumans who run 
ancestor‐simulations is false, unless we are currently 
living in a simulation.

X0.1 ◇(S1 v L1)          (Belief Introduction)
X0.2 ◇(-S1 > L1)         (Material Implication)
X0.3 □(-S1 > L1)         (Functional Derivation)

Analysis

X1 □(L1 > S1)

We know that if we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation, then it is highly unlikely that our descendants will, for whatever reason, run a sufficient number of simulations of their own evolutionary history.

Explanation: Why would they? The interest and spark will be gone. This assumption is consistent with Pareto Principle; namely that if our descendants were to run any one simulation, the subsequent simulations will happen less often over time.

X2 ◇(-P1 > -S1)

X3 ◇(S1 > P1)

X4 ◇[(L1 > S1) & (S1 > P1)]

X5 ◇(L1 > P1)                    (We're caught — pessimistic universe!)

X6 □(L1 > P1)

We know that we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation yet it is not highly improbable that the humans will reach the post-human stage.

X7 □-(-L1 v P1)

X8 □-(L1 > P1)

X9 -◇(L1 > P1)

It's false that for all we know, if we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation then it is highly improbable that the humans will reach the post-human stage.

X9 contradicts X5; therefore, we must reject X1. Which tells us

X1.1 -□(L1 > S1)

It's false that we know that if we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation, then it is highly unlikely that our descendants will, for whatever reason, run a sufficient number of simulations of their own evolutionary history.

X1.2 ◇-(L1 > S1)

We should believe that it's false that if we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation, then it is highly unlikely that our descendants will, for whatever reason, run a sufficient number of simulations of their own evolutionary history.

X1.3 ◇(L1 & -S1)

We should believe that (a) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation and (b) that it is not true that it is highly unlikely that our descendants will, for whatever reason, run a sufficient number of simulations of their own evolutionary history.

Or...
X1.4 -□(-S1 > L1)
X1.5 ◇-(-S1 > L1)
X1.6 ◇(-S1 & -L1)

We should believe that (a) we are not almost certainly living in a computer simulation and (b) that it is not highly unlikely that our descendants will, for whatever reason, run a sufficient number of simulations of their own evolutionary history.

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