The Ukrainians are capturing more villages in their offensive in Russia. Military expert Franz-Stefan Gady warns: This could expose important defense lines.
With a team of researchers, military expert Franz-Stefan Gady often travels to the front in Ukraine. He is in close contact with front-line units there. Gady works as a Consulting Senior Fellow at the London Institute for International Strategic Studies and as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for New American Security in Washington, D.C. Gady is the author of the book "The Return of War," to be published in 2024. The security policy expert considers Ukraine's offensive a military success, but he also sees risks in the advance.
ZEIT ONLINE: Ukraine has reported further territorial gains in the Russian region of Kursk. How do you view the offensive?
Franz Stefan Gady: The pace of the Ukrainian advance is slowing down. This is probably mainly because the Ukrainians are trying to consolidate their position and don't want to overstretch their supply lines. In general, the Russians seem to be waiting to see what additional forces the Ukrainians will send to the region and are only launching counterattacks at specific points. There is a danger for the advancing Ukrainian troops that the Russians might try to cut off individual units. However, the leadership of the Russian armed forces does not seem to be clear whether the Ukrainians are planning further operations. That's why they are apparently acting very cautiously. But a large-scale counterattack will come at some point, whether in a few days or a few weeks. However, I must warn you right at the beginning: The situation is extremely dynamic. From the outside, we only have a limited insight into the situation. In any case, it's clear that this operation will change the dynamics of the war at least in the medium term. In which direction exactly is unclear.
ZEIT ONLINE: President Zelenskyy has just spoken for the first time about the goals of the offensive. He talked about a buffer zone that should be achieved. Does that make sense from your point of view?
Gady: We need to look critically at what a sober cost-benefit analysis of the offensive yields. A buffer zone can be a legitimate goal. But the question is whether it's worth creating such a zone with forces that might be needed on other front sections. If the bulk of combat-capable Ukrainian reserves are used for this, the advance could expose important parts of the Ukrainian defense lines. I view the offensive quite critically in terms of the potential military resource consumption. No matter how the situation develops, the active front line for Ukraine has been extended by this operation. Russia benefits from this in the long term, as it has more resources than Ukraine. Russia will not suffer a crushing defeat at Kursk - even if the Ukrainians' initial successes are impressive, and even if it represents perhaps the Kremlin's most embarrassing military defeat to date.
ZEIT ONLINE: Experts and military personnel in the West warn that the attack on Russia is quite risky. Is the risk too high?
Gady: Of course, there is a risk with this operation. At least elements of eleven brigades and other units of the Ukrainian land forces are deployed at Kursk, which is already a substantial part of the army. The forces now operating in the Kursk area, more than 10,000 men, cannot be used by the Ukrainians for defense or held back as an operational reserve as a kind of "front firefighter" to prevent possible future Russian breakthroughs. On the other hand, we are currently seeing the most tactically effective operation of the Ukrainian armed forces since the Kharkiv offensive in 2022. Since then, however, the Ukrainians have learned quite a bit more. The units have shown that they can master combined arms combat with sufficient preparation time and against a surprised opponent, i.e., effectively use different weapon systems such as infantry, artillery and air defense together. In addition, the Ukrainians show that they are able to maintain secrecy, to surprise the Russians. Most European armed forces would not be capable of such an operation. From a military point of view, this is a great achievement. However, the situation can change relatively quickly if Russian operations in the Donbas bring further successes and the leadership in Moscow then moves troops to Kursk. The big question will be whether the Russians can advance simultaneously in the Donbas and contain the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region.
ZEIT ONLINE: Wouldn't it make more sense to use the units deployed by Ukraine in the Kursk area for defense?
Gady: The Kursk operation could indeed make the situation more difficult on other front sections where the Ukrainians are on the defensive. It is clear that the Ukrainians are not able to hold the front along the entire line and be successful in the offensive in the long term at the same time. I wonder about the state of Ukraine's strategic reserve. I don't know in detail what personnel they can still muster to support other front lines or the offensive. They lack infantry, and the operation at Kursk does not help to compensate for the personnel inferiority on other front sections. For Russia, it can be militarily advantageous to tie up Ukrainian units at Kursk. After all, these units cannot be used for defense in the Donbas.
ZEIT ONLINE: How long can Ukraine hold the conquered terrain?
Gady: The Ukrainians are likely to try to hold the territory they have already conquered. They now need to secure and expand their positions and defend their supply routes. How long the Ukrainians can hold the captured territory also depends on logistics. The Ukrainian troops at Kursk need sufficient supplies of personnel, weapons and ammunition. Russia is attacking the supply routes with special forces, glide bombs and drones. If the Ukrainians do not manage to defend the routes, they will have to withdraw sooner or later.
ZEIT ONLINE: What does this offensive bring Ukraine?
Gady: We must evaluate the success of the offensive not only on day 16, but also on day 60, if the operation should last that long. Certainly, the Ukrainians could hold out on Russian territory for weeks or months. But that depends mainly on the Russian reaction and how quickly the Russian armed forces want to try to drive out the Ukrainians, or whether it makes sense to slowly wear down the Ukrainian units through superior Russian firepower over months. It is unclear whether all this is sensible for Ukraine in the long term. From military history, we know examples where too much was risked on secondary theaters of war to achieve successes. And this operation is a secondary theater of war. The main battle is currently taking place in the Donbas, and conquering this region remains Russia's most important war aim.
ZEIT ONLINE: The situation in the Donbas has intensified. Russia is making territorial gains there. How threatening is this development for Ukraine?
Gady: Ukraine has not achieved its main goal for this year, which was to stabilize the front in eastern Ukraine. The situation in the Donbas is critical. The Russians are pushing towards Pokrovsk, where they are facing the last line of defense. Once this has been breached, there are few Ukrainian positions that can absorb an advance. I was in Pokrovsk myself and could see how the positions in the city were being hollowed out by the Russians. If Pokrovsk falls, the Russians can use the roads and the favorable strategic position to quickly threaten further Ukrainian positions.
ZEIT ONLINE: In the Donbas, Russia is successful, while in Kursk they are not managing to push back the Ukrainian units. What does this say about the military capabilities of the Russian armed forces?
Gady: In the West, the Russian armed forces were quickly talked down. However, the Ukrainians wisely attacked at a point where they were superior in terms of personnel and technology. The Russians continue to focus on the Donbas. The fact that the Russians have not managed to drive out the Ukrainians so far says nothing about their combat value. This will only become apparent when the Russians launch a counterattack with larger units. But that may still take some time. In Kursk, however, Russian special forces are already taking action against the Ukrainians. They have already taken prisoners and are extremely brutal. There is clear evidence of Russian war crimes.
ZEIT ONLINE: How does it look with the Ukrainians? After all, this is the first time they are on the offensive with strong forces on Russian soil?
Gady: We can clearly say that the Ukrainians generally take care to observe the law of war and the Geneva Conventions when it comes to prisoners. On the Russian side, this is not always the case. The detention conditions are sometimes fatal.
ZEIT ONLINE: One of the Ukrainians' goals was to force the Russians to use troops from the front for defense at Kursk with the offensive. That hasn't worked, has it?
Gady: No, so far we don't see Russia withdrawing the battle-hardened units from the Donbas, at least as far as the units in the Pokrovsk area, the center of gravity of the Russian offensive, are concerned. We can determine that the leadership in Moscow is currently leaving the bulk of the troops in the Donbas to take advantage of the weakening of the defenders there.
ZEIT ONLINE: In Germany, there is currently a massive discussion about how much money should be spent on supporting Ukraine. How do you view this debate?
Gady: The German government always manages to sell itself short. In Ukraine, I rarely heard criticism of the Germans from front-line soldiers; the support is seen quite positively. The Federal Republic repeatedly manages to become the bogeyman through clumsy communication policy. The decision-makers in Ukraine know very well that the Germans are making a significant contribution. Of course, the arms aid could often have been provided earlier and more targeted, and I also see the refusal to send individual weapon systems as still problematic in some cases.
ZEIT ONLINE: Germany initially found it very difficult to supply weapons to Ukraine. Now, however, tanks supplied by the Federal Republic are in use on Russian soil. How do you assess this?
Gady: The fact that German military equipment forms part of the spearhead in a military operation by the Ukrainians in the Kursk area and that the German government accepts this shows that there is a security policy change in Germany. Whether one calls this a turning point, I don't know. It is welcome.