- The course will focus on survey artical:
- journal of econ literature (JEL)
- journal of econmic survey
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convergence: easy to catchup by imitaing existing techonology from other countries
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there are statistics system change dramatically in Vietnam and China (2003)
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absolute/relative convergence realates to the inclusion of country parameter into discussion
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conditional unconditional linear regression
- conditional regression is E[y|x]
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homework
- 3 outline of reading
- simple, refer to the example
- equation not the most important
- outline of term paper (the question, the methodology)(preparing two or three topics)
- term paper
- 3 outline of reading
- would discuss trump's tax cut later
- middle income trap represents policy choosing getting difficult
- middle income $1000~12000 per year per capita
- caught in the GNI for ~10 years
- cause
- diminishing return to phsical capital
- exhaustion of cheap labor and initation gain
- labor quality not improve (Thailand and Malaysia spend less on science eduation that most east asians)
- Philippines' labor problem is not lack of, but mismatch?
- institution
- meta-analysis
- compare regression result from different setout
- the definition of measure of corrupation is different from
- adverse effect of corruction are more siginificant in LT growth in low income countries
- less averse in International Country Risk Guide corruption perceptions index
- less averse in 2SLS estimations: imply corruption is an endogenous variable
- PET-FAT: precision-effect and funnel-asymmetry tests
- PEESE: precision-effect estimation with standard errors
- LIC: low income countries
- MRA: meta-regression analysis
- in institutional economics, the traditional view is that the state need to provide a framework of law and order
- strong state (capacity): can do but restrain itself
- fisical: provide services and goods which cost less than private firms
- legal:
- military
- pluralism may be a key in institutional economics:
- usually depends on history
- different aspect of development and the trade-offs
- democracy
- decentralization
- india and indonesia and US are example of decentralizatino regime
- public enterprize
- historically transmitted traits affect enocomic development
- persistent techonology and productivity performance: Neolithic advantage continuing
- persistent exist in population, not location
- genetic distance related to diffision of knowledge, but its relatedness decline in globalization
- China's fast development could be seen as follow HK's pattern
- the development focus changes in the area
- *geography and history
- directly affect productivity
- indirectly through traits human capital social capital, institutions
- through ancestral composition
- as barrier prevent techonology spread
- define time horizon for modern development analysis
- factor of producation and technology
- policy
- institution
- GDP growth increase (while variace decrease)
- 1960-1980: 3.5%
- 1980-1900: 5%
- 1990-2000: 6%
- 2000-2010: 9%
- india's driving force for the 1980-2010 period are not export menufacturing, high saving rate, foreign capital inflow
- trade liberazation make high tech machine import possible, loosen regulation in firms make techonology diffuse easier
- communication monopoly dissolved
- the service sector lead the growth, and export high tech service
- why not with fast growth employment? the growing service sector dont use much uneducated labor
- institution and education and agriculture productivity didnt improve much in the period
- 2 economy in india didnt relate in terms of growth
??? India government choose this or accientently
From Divergence to Convergence: Reevaluating the History Behind China’s Economic Boom (compare Qing to reformed China)
- largest economy before 1800
- 1978 reform trigger a boom growth
- the capacity in the government is strong even before the 1978 reform
- Schumpeter: static efficiency was neither nec- essary nor sufficient for long-run dynamism (1942, p. 83). It is equally true, however, that
- creative construction; policy and technology
- predictions
- innovation lead growth came with high turnover rates for firms
- small firms grow faster and break up earlier than bigger firms
- democracy helps growth at frontier economies
- long term techonology wave brings more turnover, inequility, initially lag
- intense competetion, higher degree openess, focus on research education mostly helps frontier economies
- big multinational company decrease transacation cost
- empiracally globalization brings faster grwoth and reduce poor
- evidence from comparing the 1980 developing globalizer and the rest developing countries (growth rate even slower than developed countries)
- rising trenf of growth rate for the newly globalizer from 70s to 90s
- no relation between trade volumn and household inequility
- absolute poverty fallen in globalizer
- is globalizaton a driving force for inequility between and with countries; between countries
- is global inequility declining? yes
- why should we care about global inequality? the focus should be on the less oppotunity for the less advantaged ppl
- 7 channels globalization rise firm's productivity
- selection: FDI more efficient; trade activities increse survival rate
- learning: exporting, FDI all contribute to higher productivity
- GATT/WTO contributes to global economic welfare
- compare to preferential trade agreements (PTAs), WTO is not out of date
- PTAs are deep integration (while restrict national sovereignty) compare to WTO
- WTO need to be readjusted
- critical mass agreements (CMAs) or plurilat- eral agreements (PAs) better than PTA in that it is more open and fair in dispute solving among parties and externality
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industrial policy often aims at long term benefits; export subsidy, gov ownership
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use industrial policy is harmful to downstream sectors's performance (who use the protected sector's products as input) at export
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08a presentation(Oct12)
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09 paper presentation(Oct)_10 pages_simple questions
- how to quantify corruption
- internation aid and moral hazard
- moral hazard and centralized-decentralize politics
- minimun wages
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choose 10b, 10a, or 12a
- technology,politics, and institutions are there so general laws not easily apporachable
- review Marx's captitalism and laws
- review Piketty's captitalism and laws
- author's approach: technology and factor prices are shaped by the evolution of institutions and political equilibria—and institutions themselves are endogenous and are partly influenced by, among other things, the extent of inequality. We then apply this framework to the