The ABM effect, visualized.

output.txt

  5% after 2 abm cycles with 197 dice rolls
 25% after 7 abm cycles with 626 dice rolls
 50% after 14 abm cycles with 1048 dice rolls
 75% after 23 abm cycles with 1381 dice rolls
 95% after 39 abm cycles with 1573 dice rolls
100% after 71 abm cycles with 1622 dice rolls
8 12 5 8 15 10 7 10 10 15 22 9 6 29 15 23 5 5 7 11 1 21 6 6 9 44 14 9 16 7 10 45 28 23 11 29 17 19 28 3 28 24 27 2 10 14 16 9 20 8 11 27 3 16 42 5 20 1 24 13 20 38 23 19 2 21 33 12 13 9 8 1 2 17 71 2 24 24 39 8 15 35 5 24 17 42 29 15 35 8 24 3 7 22 4 6 22 2 18 5 

the-abm-effect.lua

--[[

ABM calculation helper -- by sofar. WTFPL or MIT

--]]

local nodes = {}
local nodecount = 100
local count = 0
local abms = 0
local rolls = 0
local chance = 16
local lim = 0

for n = 1, nodecount do
	nodes[n] = 0
end

local function roll()
	while true do
		abms = abms + 1
		for n = 1, nodecount do
			if nodes[n] == 0 then
				rolls = rolls + 1
				if math.random(1, chance) == 1 then
					nodes[n] = abms
					count = count + 1
				end
			end
		end

		if count >= 5 and lim == 0 then
			print("  5% after " .. abms .. " abm cycles with " .. rolls .. " dice rolls")
			lim = 5
		end
		if count >= 25 and lim == 5 then
			print(" 25% after " .. abms .. " abm cycles with " .. rolls .. " dice rolls")
			lim = 25
		end
		if count >= 50 and lim == 25 then
			print(" 50% after " .. abms .. " abm cycles with " .. rolls .. " dice rolls")
			lim = 50
		end
		if count >= 75 and lim == 50 then
			print(" 75% after " .. abms .. " abm cycles with " .. rolls .. " dice rolls")
			lim = 75
		end
		if count >= 95 and lim == 75 then
			print(" 95% after " .. abms .. " abm cycles with " .. rolls .. " dice rolls")
			lim = 95
		end
		if count >= 100 then
			print("100% after " .. abms .. " abm cycles with " .. rolls .. " dice rolls")
			local s = ""
			for n = 1, nodecount do
				s = s .. nodes[n] .. " "
			end
			print(s)
			return
		end
	end
end

roll()