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@tkuriyama
Created September 17, 2020 15:36
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Risk Win Probabilities
Win probabiloity for A
A: 1 B: 1 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 0 % 1
A: 1 B: 2 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 0 % 1
A: 1 B: 3 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 0 % 1
A: 1 B: 4 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 0 % 1
A: 1 B: 5 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 0 % 1
A: 1 B: 6 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 0 % 1
A: 1 B: 7 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 0 % 1
A: 1 B: 8 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 0 % 1
A: 1 B: 9 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 0 % 1
A: 1 B: 10 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 0 % 1
A: 2 B: 1 | Sim: 42.2% | Exact: 41.67% | Diff: 0.53% | Exact: 5 % 12
A: 2 B: 2 | Sim: 10.24% | Exact: 10.61% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 275 % 2592
A: 2 B: 3 | Sim: 2.62% | Exact: 2.7% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 15125 % 559872
A: 2 B: 4 | Sim: 0.88% | Exact: 0.69% | Diff: 0.19% | Exact: 831875 % 120932352
A: 2 B: 5 | Sim: 0.2% | Exact: 0.18% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 45753125 % 26121388032
A: 2 B: 6 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 2516421875 % 5642219814912
A: 2 B: 7 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 138403203125 % 1218719480020992
A: 2 B: 8 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 7612176171875 % 263243407684534272
A: 2 B: 9 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 418669689453125 % 56860576059859402752
A: 2 B: 10 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: < 0.1% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 23026832919921875 % 12281884428929630994432
A: 3 B: 1 | Sim: 76.74% | Exact: 75.42% | Diff: 1.32% | Exact: 1955 % 2592
A: 3 B: 2 | Sim: 36.26% | Exact: 36.27% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 235 % 648
A: 3 B: 3 | Sim: 20.88% | Exact: 20.61% | Diff: 0.27% | Exact: 692225 % 3359232
A: 3 B: 4 | Sim: 8.6% | Exact: 9.13% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 5520775 % 60466176
A: 3 B: 5 | Sim: 4.98% | Exact: 4.91% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 320867375 % 6530347008
A: 3 B: 6 | Sim: 2.24% | Exact: 2.14% | Diff: 0.1% | Exact: 60231989875 % 2821109907456
A: 3 B: 7 | Sim: 1.08% | Exact: 1.13% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 6903297810625 % 609359740010496
A: 3 B: 8 | Sim: 0.32% | Exact: 0.49% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 644507844581875 % 131621703842267136
A: 3 B: 9 | Sim: 0.22% | Exact: 0.26% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 73579448914853125 % 28430288029929701376
A: 3 B: 10 | Sim: < 0.1% | Exact: 0.11% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 6859326748590371875 % 6140942214464815497216
A: 4 B: 1 | Sim: 91.5% | Exact: 91.64% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 342035 % 373248
A: 4 B: 2 | Sim: 64.92% | Exact: 65.6% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 6610505 % 10077696
A: 4 B: 3 | Sim: 46.86% | Exact: 47.03% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 511817135 % 1088391168
A: 4 B: 4 | Sim: 31.3% | Exact: 31.5% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 296211210125 % 940369969152
A: 4 B: 5 | Sim: 20.66% | Exact: 20.59% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 41830894045775 % 203119913336832
A: 4 B: 6 | Sim: 14.06% | Exact: 13.37% | Diff: 0.69% | Exact: 5865873238065125 % 43873901280755712
A: 4 B: 7 | Sim: 8.54% | Exact: 8.37% | Diff: 0.17% | Exact: 793601363484333875 % 9476762676643233792
A: 4 B: 8 | Sim: 5.04% | Exact: 5.35% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 109518148220930373125 % 2046980738154938499072
A: 4 B: 9 | Sim: 3.5% | Exact: 3.28% | Diff: 0.22% | Exact: 14488974028673670321875 % 442147839441466715799552
A: 4 B: 10 | Sim: 2.36% | Exact: 2.08% | Diff: 0.28% | Exact: 1982091162758231904303125 % 95503933319356810612703232
A: 5 B: 1 | Sim: 96.86% | Exact: 97.15% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 52218275 % 53747712
A: 5 B: 2 | Sim: 78.26% | Exact: 78.55% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 2279684105 % 2902376448
A: 5 B: 3 | Sim: 63.66% | Exact: 64.16% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 402241935565 % 626913312768
A: 5 B: 4 | Sim: 47.66% | Exact: 47.65% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 16132151698115 % 33853318889472
A: 5 B: 5 | Sim: 35.46% | Exact: 35.86% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 1311121206180325 % 3656158440062976
A: 5 B: 6 | Sim: 24.38% | Exact: 25.25% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 398817974740357625 % 1579460446107205632
A: 5 B: 7 | Sim: 17.14% | Exact: 18.15% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 61916238636302087375 % 341163456359156416512
A: 5 B: 8 | Sim: 12.38% | Exact: 12.34% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 9093167226997908090125 % 73691306573577785966592
A: 5 B: 9 | Sim: 8.92% | Exact: 8.62% | Diff: 0.3% | Exact: 1371631776690580341186875 % 15917322219892801768783872
A: 5 B: 10 | Sim: 5.6% | Exact: 5.72% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 196629788626429782406308125 % 3438141599496845182057316352
A: 6 B: 1 | Sim: 99.12% | Exact: 99.03% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 7664728115 % 7739670528
A: 6 B: 2 | Sim: 88.72% | Exact: 88.98% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 1115640793115 % 1253826625536
A: 6 B: 3 | Sim: 75.98% | Exact: 76.94% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 208367138941435 % 270826551115776
A: 6 B: 4 | Sim: 62.82% | Exact: 63.83% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 1166853115687865 % 1828079220031488
A: 6 B: 5 | Sim: 50.44% | Exact: 50.62% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 1599054692224736155 % 3158920892214411264
A: 6 B: 6 | Sim: 39.6% | Exact: 39.68% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 135357843352750418675 % 341163456359156416512
A: 6 B: 7 | Sim: 29.2% | Exact: 29.74% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 21917129675797764582725 % 73691306573577785966592
A: 6 B: 8 | Sim: 22.66% | Exact: 22.4% | Diff: 0.26% | Exact: 3566238585415617359500625 % 15917322219892801768783872
A: 6 B: 9 | Sim: 16.24% | Exact: 16.16% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 555459002271715065986615375 % 3438141599496845182057316352
A: 6 B: 10 | Sim: 12.1% | Exact: 11.83% | Diff: 0.27% | Exact: 87835817880016414221064030625 % 742638585491318559324380332032
A: 7 B: 1 | Sim: 99.76% | Exact: 99.67% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 1110840377795 % 1114512556032
A: 7 B: 2 | Sim: 93.44% | Exact: 93.4% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 168631009513555 % 180551034077184
A: 7 B: 3 | Sim: 85.34% | Exact: 85.69% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 33419034783800035 % 38999023360671744
A: 7 B: 4 | Sim: 74.32% | Exact: 74.49% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 784333593461520355 % 1052973630738137088
A: 7 B: 5 | Sim: 64.16% | Exact: 63.77% | Diff: 0.39% | Exact: 290089239214689478205 % 454884608478875222016
A: 7 B: 6 | Sim: 52.62% | Exact: 52.07% | Diff: 0.55% | Exact: 12789925841778794772305 % 24563768857859261988864
A: 7 B: 7 | Sim: 41.74% | Exact: 42.33% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 2246094395778916071895775 % 5305774073297600589594624
A: 7 B: 8 | Sim: 33.3% | Exact: 32.95% | Diff: 0.35% | Exact: 47200309518287588726603425 % 143255899979035215919054848
A: 7 B: 9 | Sim: 25.86% | Exact: 25.78% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 15952774824947224772596320875 % 61886548790943213277031694336
A: 7 B: 10 | Sim: 20.1% | Exact: 19.34% | Diff: 0.76% | Exact: 1292862423061250736585654321625 % 6683747269421867033919422988288
A: 8 B: 1 | Sim: 99.9% | Exact: 99.89% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 160309871334995 % 160489808068608
A: 8 B: 2 | Sim: 96.6% | Exact: 96.66% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 75396772054890025 % 77998046721343488
A: 8 B: 3 | Sim: 90.98% | Exact: 90.99% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 15330318348947652185 % 16847578091810193408
A: 8 B: 4 | Sim: 83.48% | Exact: 83.37% | Diff: 0.11% | Exact: 379255059981803538265 % 454884608478875222016
A: 8 B: 5 | Sim: 72.86% | Exact: 73.64% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 144709205741850981768695 % 196510150862874095910912
A: 8 B: 6 | Sim: 63.38% | Exact: 64.01% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 6792166755320928169479815 % 10611548146595201179189248
A: 8 B: 7 | Sim: 53.12% | Exact: 53.55% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 1227494243415296861475950585 % 2292094399664563454704877568
A: 8 B: 8 | Sim: 42.88% | Exact: 44.56% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 55150893068273002698718525475 % 123773097581886426554063388672
A: 8 B: 9 | Sim: 35.86% | Exact: 35.69% | Diff: 0.17% | Exact: 2385654242756859282395418197075 % 6683747269421867033919422988288
A: 8 B: 10 | Sim: 28.82% | Exact: 28.68% | Diff: 0.14% | Exact: 1655975312296137655723687827063875 % 5774757640780493117306381461880832
A: 9 B: 1 | Sim: 99.96% | Exact: 99.96% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 23101715461932515 % 23110532361879552
A: 9 B: 2 | Sim: 97.84% | Exact: 98.03% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 11010545947512242585 % 11231718727873462272
A: 9 B: 3 | Sim: 95.06% | Exact: 94.68% | Diff: 0.38% | Exact: 765661249717909710275 % 808683748406889283584
A: 9 B: 4 | Sim: 88.58% | Exact: 88.78% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 19384653448927872063835 % 21834461206986010656768
A: 9 B: 5 | Sim: 81.88% | Exact: 81.84% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 7719642799729558864245565 % 9432487241417956603723776
A: 9 B: 6 | Sim: 72.82% | Exact: 72.96% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 123867469190995658959373555 % 169784770345523218867027968
A: 9 B: 7 | Sim: 64.96% | Exact: 64.29% | Diff: 0.67% | Exact: 23578918022914551037784873965 % 36673510394633015275278041088
A: 9 B: 8 | Sim: 54.58% | Exact: 54.74% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 67748389211872944230986325665 % 123773097581886426554063388672
A: 9 B: 9 | Sim: 44.96% | Exact: 46.4% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 198474212853677104420649575303375 % 427759825242999490170843071250432
A: 9 B: 10 | Sim: 39.64% | Exact: 37.99% | Diff: 1.65% | Exact: 137104297643801365894128656094025 % 360922352548780819831648841367552
A: 10 B: 1 | Sim: 99.96% | Exact: 99.99% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 3327484632013250675 % 3327916660110655488
A: 10 B: 2 | Sim: 99.2% | Exact: 99.01% | Diff: 0.19% | Exact: 4804137726516316407515 % 4852102490441335701504
A: 10 B: 3 | Sim: 96.74% | Exact: 96.7% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 1013459658332291779695595 % 1048054137935328511524864
A: 10 B: 4 | Sim: 93.22% | Exact: 92.98% | Diff: 0.24% | Exact: 26311547467453520350587875 % 28297461724253869811171328
A: 10 B: 5 | Sim: 87.92% | Exact: 87.29% | Diff: 0.63% | Exact: 10671214934543021258195122645 % 12224503464877671758426013696
A: 10 B: 6 | Sim: 80.3% | Exact: 80.76% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 533142437640507817875036041185 % 660123187103394274955004739584
A: 10 B: 7 | Sim: 72.08% | Exact: 72.61% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 103529251873632883911773987340415 % 142586608414333163390281023750144
A: 10 B: 8 | Sim: 64.12% | Exact: 64.64% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 1244290426218894286028919665523145 % 1924919213593497705768793820626944
A: 10 B: 9 | Sim: 54.78% | Exact: 55.81% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 928142660178139952280844631893711345 % 1663130200544782017784237861021679616
A: 10 B: 10 | Sim: 47.6% | Exact: 47.99% | Diff: < 0.1% | Exact: 43102520245128728083626779723473992925 % 89809030829418228960348844495170699264
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