Hedge Fund Legend Ray Dalio On The Economy-5C43i3yclec.mp4
对冲基金联想-5C43i3Cyec.mp4
[00:00:00] Ray D'Alessio is the founder and chief investment officer of Bridgwater the world's largest and most successful hedge fund and he is a best selling author. Coming off the launch of principles which we'll talk about in a minute but Ray welcome. I see you've written one of the largest and I have no doubt most comprehensive analysis of debt crises that I have ever seen. You say this pattern repeats itself again and again. Why write a book about this.
[00：00]Ray D‘Alessio是全球最大、最成功的对冲基金Bridgwater的创始人和首席投资官，也是一位畅销书作家。即将推出的原则，我们将在稍后讨论，但雷欢迎。我看到你写了一本我所见过的最全面的债务危机分析报告。你说这种模式一次又一次地重复。为什么要写一本关于这个的书。
[00:00:26] Well at a stage of my life I want to pass along the principles that helped me. This was really research that was done before the 2008 financial crisis and it lays out a template of how these things happen over and over again. In other words I believe that same things happen over and over again. And if you study the patterns of them you understand the cause effect relationships and then can write down principles for dealing with them well we dealt with them very well in that financial crisis and another debt crisis. And I wanted to pass that template along. It's actually only in the first 60 pages of the book so it's not a big read.
[00：00：26]在我生命的某个阶段，我想传递那些帮助我的原则。这是在2008年金融危机之前所做的研究，它展示了这些事情是如何一次又一次地发生的模板。换句话说，我相信同样的事情会一次又一次地发生。如果你研究它们的模式，你就能理解它们的因果关系，然后写下处理它们的原则，我们在那次金融危机和另一次债务危机中处理得很好。我想把模板传过来。实际上，这本书只有前60页，所以读起来并不多。
[00:01:02] If people want to and you're giving it away for free which is great. So where are we in the current debt cycle. You often hear lots of talk about debt. Obviously we're now 10 years as you note past the financial crisis but debt still comes up the deficit is ballooning in the United States. Where are we in the cycle.
[00：01：02]如果人们愿意，而你却免费赠送，那就太好了。那么，在当前的债务周期中，我们在哪里呢？你经常听到很多关于债务的谈话。显然，我们现在已经10年了，正如你注意到的，过去的金融危机，但债务仍然增加，赤字在美国膨胀。我们在循环中的位置。
[00:01:20] I think that there are six stages to the cycle I'm going to touch on that briefly. There's the early part of the cycle where debt is being used to create productivity incomes and then it can be serviced well asset prices go up everything is great. And then you come to the bubble phase of the cycle and in that bubble phase you're in a position where everybody extrapolates the past because asset goes up. They think it's assets are going to continue to rise. And you know you borrow money and they leverage and when you in that phase when we do the calculations we you could start to see that maybe you won't be able to sustain that level of debt growth. Then you come into the third phase of the cycle which is the top that's typically the part of the cycle when central banks start to put on the brakes tighten monetary policy and the like. Then you come into the downward leg. And when interest rates hit zero percent you come into a depression part of that cycle because monetary policy doesn't work. Normally when interest rates hit zero then you have to have quantitative easing and you begin that expansion and then you carry that along and you begin the cycle. Carry that.
[00：01：20]我认为周期有六个阶段，我将简要地讨论这个问题。在这个周期的早期，债务被用来创造生产力收入，然后它就可以得到很好的偿还，资产价格上涨，一切都很好。然后进入周期的泡沫阶段，在泡沫阶段，每个人都推断过去，因为资产增加了。他们认为它的资产将继续增加。你知道，你借钱，他们杠杆，当你在那个阶段，当我们做计算，你可以开始看到，也许你将无法维持这种水平的债务增长。然后进入周期的第三阶段，这是周期的顶部，通常是当各国央行开始刹车、收紧货币政策等的时候。然后你就进入了向下的一条腿。当利率达到零%时，你就会陷入经济周期的萧条，因为货币政策不起作用。通常情况下，当利率达到零时，你必须采取量化宽松政策，然后开始扩张，然后你进行这种扩张，然后开始循环。拿着那个。
[00:02:36] So I think the period that we're in is very similar to the period that we were in in the 1930s. If I may. Absolutely. Explain it. OK. There are only two times in the history of this century where we had debt crisis as in which interest rates hit zero. And in both of those times the central bank had to print money and go to a different type of monetary policy which we call quantitative easing and to buy financial assets and that drives up in both of those cases the value of those financial assets and produces a recovery but it drives interest rates down to zero or near zero where they are around the world and that buying. In this case 15 trillion dollars of financial assets has put up pushed up financial assets and drive driven the interest rates down to zero. So it's caused asset prices to rise. It's also caused populism more populism because that process creates a gap between the rich and the poor those who have more financial assets see those asset prices go up and for various other reasons a wealth gap has developed if you look at right now the top. 10 percent the top one tenth of 1 percent of the population's net worth is equal about to the bottom 90 percent combined. That's very similar to the late thirties when we had that stimulation and so on. So we are in a situation where we're in the part of the cycle later part of the cycle where quantitative easing has been used most of its energy and asset prices are up interest rates are low and we're beginning a tightening of monetary policy very much like we began in 1937. And we have a political situation in terms of having more of a conflict between the rich and the poor which is bringing out populism populism around the world is the selection of strong minded leaders who are sort of take charge but tend to be more nationalistic.
[00：02：36]所以我认为我们所处的时期与上世纪30年代的时期非常相似。如果可以的话。绝对一点儿没错解释一下。好的在本世纪的历史上，我们只有两次债务危机，利率达到零。在这两个时期，央行不得不印钞票，采取不同类型的货币政策，我们称之为量化宽松，并购买金融资产，在这两种情况下，这都会推高这些金融资产的价值，并产生复苏，但它将利率降至零或接近零，而这些货币政策在世界各地都是如此。在这种情况下，15万亿美元的金融资产增加了金融资产，并推动利率降至零。因此，这导致了资产价格的上涨。它还导致民粹主义更加民粹主义，因为这一过程在富人和穷人之间造成了差距-那些拥有更多金融资产的人-看到那些资产价格上涨，如果你看看现在的最高层，由于其他各种原因，贫富差距已经形成。10%-占总人口1%的前十分之一-相当于最底层90%的人的总和。这和三十年代末我们受到这种刺激的时候非常相似，以此类推。因此，我们所处的情况是，我们处于周期后期的阶段，量化宽松政策已被使用，其大部分能源和资产价格都在上涨，利率较低，我们正开始收紧货币政策，就像我们在1937年开始的那样。我们的政治形势是富人和穷人之间有更多的冲突，这在世界各地产生了民粹主义，那就是挑选一些意志坚强的领导人，他们在某种程度上负责，但倾向于更加民族主义。
[00:04:47] And so we're in that position and you've written extensively and articulately about what happened after 1937 which is we went through a real surge of populism and nationalism and got to World War Two and all the horrible things that happened there. What do you think happens now given where we are. I think the cause effect relationships are analogous meaning. That if you have. A wealth gap. And you have a downturn in the economy.
[00：04：47]所以我们处于这样的地位，你写了很多关于1937年以后发生的事情的文章，那就是我们经历了民粹主义和民族主义的真正高潮，进入了第二次世界大战，以及那里发生的所有可怕的事情。鉴于我们现在所处的位置，你认为现在会发生什么。我认为因果关系是相似的意思。如果你有。贫富差距。经济衰退。
[00:05:21] Where you're sharing the pie how do you divide a budget. Sharing the budget there is a risk that. The. Both sides are at odds with each other. There's also a greater international risk and tensions economic tensions produce global tensions for various reasons. So I think that in this expansion we're about in the seventh inning of a nine inning game. Let's say we're in the later part of the cycle the part of the cycle in which monetary policy is tightening and there's not much capacity to squeeze out of the economy. And that as interest rates tend to rise if they rise faster than is discounted in the curve it can hurt asset prices and asset prices are fairly fully priced at this level of interest rates at some point we're going to have a downturn because that's why we have recessions. Nobody ever gets it perfectly. And my concern is what that downturn would be. I think that that's not immediate. We don't have the same pressures but I think it's maybe in two. Maybe it's in two years I can't say but I think that that what concerns me is that it concerns me also internationally because the situation internationally is quite similar to the late thirties in that in these periods of time these geopolitical cycles. There is an established power and an emerging power that then have a rivalry. At first it's an economic rivalry and then it can become quite antagonistic. So back then the United States and England War One World War One and we had the peace but then as there was a rising Germany and a rising Japan there became that kind of economic rivalry that became more antagonistic. I think that we have a situation where there is a rising China and the United States is an existing economic power and there is a rivalry about that and there can be an antagonism about that. So when I look at it I think the parallels are quite similar. Does it mean that the same outcomes have to happen. But it does mean that I think we have to be alerted to the fact that going forward in a downturn monetary policy will not be able to be as effective as it was last time. So we have to be cautious about a downturn. I would say error on the side of having a little bit more leeway and B and then we have to be concerned about the wealth gap and the consequences geopolitically and if we don't want to repeat what happened in the late thirties and forties what do we have to do.
[00：05：21]在你分享馅饼的地方，你是如何分配预算的。分担预算有一种风险。这，这个，那，那个双方意见不一致。还有一个更大的国际风险和紧张的经济紧张关系产生全球紧张的各种原因。所以我认为，在这场扩张中，我们将进入第七局，这是一场9局的比赛。假设我们处于经济周期的后期，货币政策紧缩的那一部分，没有足够的能力挤出经济。而且，当利率上升的速度超过曲线上的贴现速度时，它会损害资产价格，而资产价格在某个时候完全按这个利率水平定价，我们就会陷入衰退，因为这就是我们出现衰退的原因。从来没有人能完美地得到它。我担心的是经济衰退会是什么样子。我认为那不是立即的。我们没有相同的压力，但我想可能是两个人。也许是在两年内，我不能说，但我认为我关心的是，它也涉及到国际上，因为国际上的情况非常类似，在这段时期，这些地缘政治周期30年代后期。有一个既有的权力和一个新兴的力量，然后有一个竞争。起初，这是一种经济竞争，然后就会变得相当对立。所以，回到当时的美国和英国战争第一次世界大战，我们有了和平，但是随着德国的崛起和日本的崛起，这种经济竞争变得更加对立。我认为，中国正在崛起，而美国是一个现有的经济大国，在这方面存在着竞争，这可能会引起对抗。所以当我看它的时候，我认为这些相似之处是非常相似的。这是否意味着同样的结果必须发生。但这确实意味着，我认为我们必须警惕这样一个事实：在经济低迷时期，货币政策将无法像上次那样有效。因此，我们必须对经济下滑持谨慎态度。我要说的是，错误在于有更多的回旋余地和B，然后我们必须关注贫富差距和地缘政治后果，如果我们不想重复上世纪三、四十年代发生的事情，我们该怎么办？
[00:07:58] What is the. Having studied history the right way to handle this and head that off.
[00：07：58]什么是。研究了历史，正确的方法来处理这件事，并把它抛之脑后。
[00:08:03] Well I think one of the things is to make sure that capitalism works for the majority of people to look at the bottom 60 percent of the population and use that as metrics to say is that improving or not. And how do you approach that wealth gap. It's not just the wealth gap. I think it's more important than the wealth gap is an opportunity gap that people need to be made useful by being able to have jobs and so on. So I think that there should be that should be considered an imperative. I think that we have to be thinking about our balance of payments situation and the amount of debt that we're producing. We're in a very privileged position of having a reserve currency. One of the things that distinguishes countries that really have problems for them those who are able to manage their debt problems is whether the currencies denominated the debt is denominated in one's own currency. That requires us in order to do that to continue to maintain sound basic finance. I think we're going to have though a squeeze that will be not just related to debt but even more importantly related to pensions and health care obligations that will happen. So I think these will be difficult times. Not not immediately but I think in maybe a few years and I think it will be very dependent on how we are with each other.
[00：08：03]我认为，其中一件事是确保资本主义对大多数人有效，让他们看到最底层的60%的人口，并以此作为衡量标准，说的是改善与否。你是如何处理贫富差距的。这不仅仅是贫富差距。我认为，比财富差距更重要的是，人们需要通过能够找到工作来获得有用的机会差距。因此，我认为应该将此视为当务之急。我认为我们必须考虑我们的国际收支状况和我们正在产生的债务数额。我们处于拥有储备货币的特权地位。让那些真正有问题的国家-那些能够解决债务问题的国家-的区别之一是，以债务计价的货币是否以自己的货币计价。这就要求我们这样做，以便继续维持健全的基本财政。我认为我们将面临的压力将不仅仅与债务有关，更重要的是与即将发生的养老金和医疗保健义务有关。所以我认为这将是一个艰难的时期。不是马上，但我认为也许几年后，我认为这将是非常取决于我们如何与对方在一起。
[00:09:29] So let me ask you about both of those. First how do we make capitalism work for everybody. It seems like part of the problem is that as you pointed out the rise in asset values are not accruing to 60 to 80 percent of the population. Any time you suggest that companies pay people more the financial class was out that's outrageous that should be free markets. We can't have minimum wage and it should be. Hey Ayn Rand was right. You want to raise you've got to bargain for it. So how in that you obviously care about the economy. How do we make capitalism work.
[00：09：29]那么，让我问你这两个问题。首先，我们如何使资本主义为每个人服务。这似乎是问题的一部分，正如你所指出的，资产价值的上升并没有增加到60%到80%的人口。每当你建议公司向人们支付更高的工资时，金融界就会认为那应该是自由市场，这太过分了。我们不能有最低工资，这是应该的。嘿艾恩·兰德是对的。你想养大你就得讨价还价。所以你怎么会关心经济。我们如何使资本主义运转。
[00:10:03] Everybody without wrecking I think I think the first thing that you need to do is realize that it's an issue is a national emergency. I would like the president to declare it as a national emergency and then use metrics to judge that. In other words take the population of Bonham's Expressen 60 percent and take those numbers and make the metrics and then bring together a commission of people a bipartisan commission to be dealing with this. I think there are a lot of things that could be done. I see it to some extent philanthropic last it in education for example in education. We're in a situation where in many cases terrible terrible conditions in education literally and in schools that I know children are having to share pencils. They'll break a pencil in half and sharpen it at both ends or they'll pass it back and forth. They don't have adequate books. There were some but those children in Connecticut state that I'm from which is either the richest or certainly one of the top three richest country states in the country. We have 22 percent of the popular high school population that is either disconnected or disengaged. And so I'll tell you what that means a disengaged student is one that attends high school but doesn't participate they don't study. They don't really make progress a disconnected student is one that they don't even know where they are.
[00：10：03]每个人都没有破坏，我认为你需要做的第一件事就是认识到这是一个国家的紧急情况。我希望总统宣布这是一个国家紧急状态，然后使用衡量标准来判断这一点。换句话说，以Bonham‘s Expressen 60%的人口为例，拿出这些数字，做出衡量标准，然后把一个由人组成的委员会-一个两党的委员会-来处理这个问题。我认为有很多事情可以做。在某种程度上，我认为慈善在教育方面是最后一次，例如在教育方面。我们所处的情况是，在许多情况下，教育的条件非常糟糕，我知道孩子们不得不在学校里分享铅笔。他们会把铅笔撕成两半，两端削尖，或者来回传递。他们没有足够的书。在康涅狄格州，有一些孩子是我所居住的，他们要么是美国最富有的州，要么是该国前三大最富有的州之一。我们有22%的受欢迎的高中学生不是断绝了关系，就是脱离了工作。所以，我会告诉你，这意味着什么意思，一个脱离工作的学生是一个上高中，但不参与，他们不学习。他们并没有取得真正的进步-一个没有联系的学生-他们甚至不知道自己在哪里。
[00:11:38] Twenty two percent of the population in Connecticut is one of those high school students is one of those those those are students that are not going to be able to be productive. They're going to be on the streets. If you look at the cost of incarceration cost of Gaza patients between now 85 and a hundred twenty five thousand dollars typically a year in terms of that. So there were certain things I think I think you could create public private partnerships so that these programs do well. I'm support I support for example microfinance microfinance and being able to bring about. There are many things. Forget the things that I'm supporting I'm saying if we take an initiative and you say a national emergency and you bring together others and you establish metrics like good management of that I think that you are you will be making progress toward dealing with that and in public part private partnership and I don't know what'll happen. I don't think that's going to happen. Have no prospect of that. That's why I'm a little bit concerned that what will the next downturn will be like.
[00][00：11：38]康涅狄格州有百分之二十二的人口是那些高中学生中的一个，他们是那些无法提高生产力的学生之一。他们将走上街头。如果你看看加沙病人的监禁费用，从现在起，85到12万5，000美元，通常是一年。所以有一些事情我认为你可以建立公共、私人伙伴关系，这样这些项目就能做得很好。我支持我所支持的，例如小额信贷和能够带来的。有很多东西。忘了我所支持的东西吧，如果我们采取主动，你说国家紧急情况，你召集其他人，你建立良好的管理标准，我认为你会在处理这个问题上取得进展，在公共部门的私人伙伴关系中，我不知道会发生什么。我不认为那会发生。没有这个可能。这就是为什么我有点担心下一次经济衰退会是什么样子。
[00:12:45] Does it require our raising taxes because the other problem as you point out is the debt and the debt growth has accelerated with the recent tax changes. Any time you mention the idea of more money to education or more money to other social services. Lots of people freak out and say we can't afford it. So are you suggesting that we do need to have an increase in the tax base.
[00：12：45]这是否需要我们提高税收，因为正如你所指出的，另一个问题是债务和债务的增长随着最近的税收变化而加速。每当你提到更多的钱用于教育，或更多的钱用于其他社会服务。很多人都吓坏了，说我们买不起。你是说我们确实需要增加税基。
[00:13:09] I think that most probably we do. But the real issue is mostly productivity. Right. In other words to unleash productivity. There was a time that women weren't part of the world workforce. And when they entered the workforce it it caused a great productivity boom. I think if we didn't. Make it a mission that that group becomes much more productive then has the opportunity. I mean I think the country you know is what are we about. I think it should be the land of opportunity and we bring that together and produce those opportunities because that produces productivity.
[00：13：09]我想我们很可能有。但真正的问题主要是生产率。右（边），正确的换句话说，是为了释放生产力。曾经有一段时间，女性不是世界劳动力的一部分。当他们进入劳动力市场时，这导致了一场巨大的生产力繁荣。我想如果我们没有。使之成为一项使命，让团队变得更有效率，然后才有机会。我的意思是我认为你知道的国家就是我们的目标。我认为这应该是一个充满机会的地方，我们把这些机会聚集在一起，产生这些机会，因为这样才能产生生产力。
[00:13:44] Candidate Trump. Going back to debt campaign. How awful the administration the Obama administration was doing the debt was growing. Now President Trump has a big new tax plan that has radically accelerated the growth of debt. Given your concern and expertise in dead cycles are you concerned about what's happening at this stage of the cycle in terms of the increasing debt the private sector debt.
[00：13：44]候选人特朗普。回到债务运动。奥巴马政府的债务状况越来越糟糕。现在，特朗普总统有了一项新的税收计划，从根本上加速了债务的增长。鉴于你对死期的关注和专业知识，你是否担心在这个周期的现阶段，私人部门债务在不断增加的债务方面发生了什么？
[00:14:09] For the most part I don't have much in the way of concerns for when we do our pro forma financial numbers and we look at we see pockets that we'll probably have problems servicing their debt. There's a lot of cash around. I am concerned in about a two year period about the amount of dollar denominated debt that we're going to have to sell abroad because we're going to have to fund the deficit. And then in addition we'll have our balance sheets the Federal Reserve's balance sheets go down and that'll involve a significant amount of selling of of dollar denominated debt. When I look at the portfolios of entities that are holding different amounts I think it will be more difficult to sell that amount of debt. I think that will cause upward pressure on interest rates. But the way that works is that pressure will sort of be negative for the economy. Let's say two years from now but it will also probably be at that point more negative for the dollar. Right now we're in a short squeeze for dollars because there's a lot of dollar denominated debt. Debt is a short dollar position because it's a promise to deliver the dollars you don't own. And when you have a lot of countries that have borrowed in dollars and have their cash flows in local currency such as we see it in Argentina and Turkey and Brazil and other countries they're in a debt squeeze that causes the debt to the dollar to rise and that debt squeeze will be passed in two years. At the same time as we're going to have to sell a lot more dollar denominated debt. And I think that that probably would be bearish for the dollar. And you know at that point. So there are parts not the same sectors as last time but different parts. So you've had one of the most successful careers in history and investing huge sums of money.
[00：14：09]在大多数情况下，我不太担心当我们做我们的财务数据时，我们看到我们可能会在偿还他们的债务时遇到问题。附近有很多现金。我担心的是，在大约两年的时间里，我们将不得不将美元计价的债务出售到国外，因为我们将不得不为赤字提供资金。此外，我们的资产负债表、美联储(Fed)的资产负债表都会下降，而这将涉及大量以美元计价的债务的抛售。当我看看持有不同金额的实体的投资组合时，我认为出售这么多债务将更加困难。我认为这会对利率造成上升的压力。但其运作方式是，压力会对经济产生一定的负面影响。让我们说两年后吧，但届时美元可能也会更负。现在我们对美元的需求很紧张，因为有很多美元计价的债务。债务是一种空头美元头寸，因为它是承诺交付你不拥有的美元。如果有很多国家借入美元，并以当地货币进行现金流动，比如阿根廷、土耳其、巴西和其他国家，他们就会陷入债务紧缩，导致美元债务上升，债务紧缩将在两年内通过。与此同时，我们将不得不卖出更多美元计价的债券。我认为这对美元来说可能是看跌的。你知道在那个时候。因此，有不同的部分与上次不同的部门，但不同的部分。因此，你拥有历史上最成功的职业生涯之一，并投入了巨额资金。
[00:16:07] As you look at where we are in the cycle. What do you think normal investors should do. You say it's not an immediate issue but a couple of years out we may have a downturn. How do you invest in a retirement portfolio in light of that.
[00：16：07]当你看我们在循环中的位置时。你认为普通投资者应该怎么做。你说这不是眼前的问题，但再过几年，我们可能会陷入衰退。考虑到这一点，你如何投资退休投资组合？
[00:16:22] I think there are two key parts of investing. There is what is your strategic asset allocation. And then there's moving around there's tactical bets and Alpha. And I think the average man should not try to make tactical bets to try to produce alpha because he's going to get it wrong.
[00：16：22]我认为投资有两个关键部分。这是你的战略资产配置。然后在附近移动，那里有战术赌注和阿尔法。我认为普通人不应该为了制造阿尔法而做战术上的赌注，因为他会搞错的。
[00:16:43] Al-Fayez better than average.
[00：16：43]Al-Fayez比平均水平好。
[00:16:45] In other words to say now's the time to buy. Now's the time to sell stock at timing. Don't do that. The history of it is clear. I remember learning that when Peter Lynch ran the Magellan Fund and that was the best stock performing fund in all the stock market when the stock market was best and the average investor lost money in it. And how is that possible. And reason it's possible is one that was very hot and the advertising moments were there people bought and when it was a period of bad performance they got out and they got scared. And so market timing is a very difficult thing. It's a very difficult thing for we who put Sandras of millions of dollars each year out we have sixteen hundred people at bridge what a difficult game. And so I would say that they should not try to play that game that they should understand how to achieve balance and diversification in an operating now how to do that is a conversation that's a you know a longer conversation. Tony Robbins Intrade interviewed me about it and he made a very simple book as part of investing it's described in there but you. There's ways of achieving balance that doesn't cause you return and significantly reduces your risk. So I would recommend that they come to a balanced portfolio what we call an all weather portfolio but something that means that they're not exposed to any particular type of environment and it's the same portfolio in inning seven of the debt cycle. That's right. If you're going to play the cycle. Then realize that the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets is the same. And then you you sell when everything is great and everybody's extrapolating the past and you're near the end of the cycle because as you come in has your unemployment rate gets low and asset prices are high and debts are being built up and everyone's extrapolating the past the past will not perform up to expectations. And that is the time to sell but it's very difficult for people to step away from the crowd and to do that.
[00：16：45]换句话说，现在是买东西的时候了。现在是适时卖出股票的时候了。别那么做。它的历史是清楚的。我记得彼得·林奇(PeterLynch)掌管麦哲伦基金(Magellan Fund)的时候，他是整个股市表现最好的股票基金，当时股市是最好的，而普通投资者则亏损于其中。那怎么可能。而理由是，这是一个非常热门的广告时刻，人们购买，当是一个糟糕的表现，他们走出来，他们感到害怕。因此，市场时机是一件非常困难的事情。这对我们每年投入数百万美元的桑德拉斯来说是一件非常困难的事情，我们有一千六百人在桥牌上，这是一场多么艰难的比赛。所以我想说的是，他们不应该试图玩那种游戏，他们应该明白如何在运营中实现平衡和多样化-现在该如何做-这是一种你知道的更长时间的对话。TonyRobbinIntrade采访了我，他写了一本非常简单的书，作为投资的一部分。有一些方法可以达到平衡，但不会导致你回归并大大降低你的风险。因此，我建议他们建立一个平衡的投资组合，我们称之为全天候投资组合，但这意味着他们不受任何特定环境的影响，在债务周期的第七局中，这是相同的投资组合。那是正确的。如果你想玩这个循环的话。然后意识到买东西的时候是街上的血是一样的。然后，当一切都很好，每个人都在推断过去时，你就会卖出，因为当你进来的时候，你的失业率会越来越低，资产价格会越来越高，债务也会越来越多，而每个人对过去的推断都不会达到预期。这是卖出的时候，但人们很难离开人群，去做这件事。
[00:19:00] And what do you watch to know that everyone is now excited and everyone's extrapolating into the future and I'll give you an example which is that two years ago we talked lots of concerns then about the stock market and valuation. And you said Henry relax we're in the middle of the cycle. Now you say we're in the seventh inning. What do I as a normal person look at to tell me OK. It's one out in the ninth. Time to start transferring and getting ready for disaster.
[00：19：00]你看了什么才知道现在每个人都很兴奋，每个人都在推断未来，我给你举个例子，两年前我们讨论了很多关于股票市场和估值的问题。你说亨利放松我们正处在循环中。现在你说我们在第七局。作为一个普通人，我要看什么来告诉我好的。是九号的一次。是时候开始转移和准备灾难了。
[00:19:30] OK. First of all you look at how much slack is left in the cycle. OK. Where is the unemployment rate. Where's the capacity. What is the central bank doing is it tightening monetary policy or is it easing monetary policy. That's one. So how much slack. Second you look at how much debt has been used to finance those purchases. OK. Third you look at the amount of US sentiment the you know the euphoria and fourth I would say. You can see the pricing of how much debt is how much growth is built into the pricing. In other words by comparing the yield on stocks and the yield on bonds and you look at the price that you look at credit spreads and things like that they paint a picture of the future. That's the discounted future. And if you look at that picture of the discounted future and that picture is an extrapolation of what happened in the past to something that's unlikely to happen going forward then you would know that prices are too high and then you have to think about timing.
[00：19：30]好的。首先，您将看到周期中还剩下多少空闲时间。好的失业率在哪里？能力在哪里？央行正在做的是收紧货币政策，还是放松货币政策。那是一个。那么有多松懈。第二，你可以看看有多少债务被用来为这些购买提供资金。好的第三，你看一看美国的情绪，你知道有多兴奋，第四，我想说。你可以看到多少债务的定价就是在定价中有多少增长。换句话说，通过比较股票的收益率和债券的收益率，你可以看到信贷利差的价格，以及它们描绘了未来的图景。那就是打折的未来。如果你看看这张贴现未来的图景，这幅图片是对过去发生的事情的推断，未来不太可能发生，那么你就会知道价格太高了，所以你必须考虑时机。
[00:20:38] Great. Let's talk about something else which is that you recently wrote a book called principles. It's the New York Times best seller It's read by people way beyond the financial industry. Part of what you talk about is the culture that you developed at Bridgewater which you say yourself is not right for everybody it's tough. It's like the SEAL team of corporate environments only certain people can handle it. And in the book you lay out your principles that have helped you be successful. What have you learned from feedback from the outside world as people have digested the book and does it make you change any of those principles.
[00：20：38]太好了。让我们谈谈另外一件事，那就是你最近写了一本叫“原则”的书。这是“纽约时报”的畅销书，人们对它的阅读远远超出了金融业。你谈论的一部分是你在布里奇沃特开发的文化，你说自己并不适合每个人，这是很艰难的。这就像海豹突击队的企业环境，只有特定的人才能处理。在这本书中，你列出了帮助你成功的原则。你从外界的反馈中学到了什么，因为人们已经消化了这本书，并且它是否使你改变了其中的任何一条原则。
[00:21:13] My main thing. It didn't. Meaning it's it's very simple in one sense. What I want is meaningful work and meaningful relationships. Through radical truthfulness and radical transparency.
[00：21：13]我的主要事情。它没有。从某种意义上说，这很简单。我想要的是有意义的工作和有意义的人际关系。通过彻底的真实和彻底的透明度。
[00:21:29] Because they reinforce each other and that's what's worked for me. If you're on a mission to do wonderful things understand the world and try to do great jobs together and you're tough with each other but also develop those meaningful relationships so you feel like you're sharing each other's lives and you're committed to that mission. That's very powerful. But the radical truthfulness so that you don't not be asking each other and you know really what's going on and you can be totally straight forward in terms of even looking at people's weaknesses and their mistakes so that you can learn from those and so that radical truthfulness and that radical transparency so people can see things themselves. To me is has been a miracle formula and I'm and I'm so pleased because I get literally I don't know. I don't know if it's tens of thousands or hundreds of a lot of a lot of people who thank me for that changing their lives. However having said that I don't think my principles are important. You could pick whatever principles that you want. What I learned when I was going along is that every time I would make decisions they're paid particularly after mistakes it paid to write down what my principles were for dealing with that the next time I'm going around. And I think the important thing is individuals picking their principles for themselves. One of the things that excited me about it is also people doing it for themselves. They have I don't want them to follow my principles. I want them to think hard about what works and then think about being clear on their own principles to realize that the same things happen over and over again. So every time you have an experience particularly if you have a bad experience a painful experience that there are lessons to be learned and ways to change and principles to develop so that you can do it better next time. And I am one of the key principles is to know that you don't know what's best necessarily to separate yourself from your individual opinion. Have a fear of being wrong. I have a tremendous fear of being wrong because in the market you learn that and if you don't learn that that gives you then the open mindedness to take in from all the people what you've learned those types of things I'm excited that people are learning so I'm excited. This is this will go on for just a short period of time. And then I'm going to go quiet because what I've done is you know what I will have done is pass these principles along like this. These debt principles. I think that they could help.
[00：21：29]因为他们互相加强，这才是对我有用的。如果你们肩负着做好事情的使命，了解世界，一起努力完成伟大的工作，你们彼此之间很难相处，但同时也要发展出有意义的人际关系，这样你们就会感觉到你们在分享彼此的生活，并致力于完成这一使命。那是非常强大的。但是激进的真实，这样你们就不会互相问了，你们知道发生了什么，你们甚至可以直截了当地看待人们的弱点和他们的错误，这样你们就可以从中吸取教训，让激进的真实和彻底的透明度，让人们能够看到自己的事情。对我来说，这是一个神奇的公式，我很高兴，因为我真的不知道。我不知道是否有成千上万的人感谢我改变了他们的生活。然而，话虽如此，我并不认为我的原则是重要的。你可以选择你想要的任何原则。我在一起的时候学到的是，每次我做决定的时候，他们都会得到报酬，尤其是在犯错之后，写下我的原则是什么，下次我要去处理这个问题。我认为最重要的是个人为自己选择自己的原则。让我兴奋的事情之一也是人们为自己做的。他们有我不想让他们遵循我的原则。我希望他们认真思考什么是可行的，然后考虑清楚自己的原则，意识到同样的事情一次又一次地发生。因此，每次你有一个经验，特别是当你有一个糟糕的经验，一个痛苦的经验，有教训，有方法，改变和发展的原则，以便你可以做得更好，下次。我是一个关键的原则，就是要知道，你不知道什么是最好的，必须把你自己和你的个人意见分开。害怕犯错。我非常害怕犯错，因为在市场上，你会学到这一点，如果你不学习，那么你就会有开放的心态，从所有的人那里吸收你所学到的东西-我很兴奋，人们也在学习，所以我很兴奋。这种情况只会持续很短的一段时间。然后我会安静下来，因为我所做的是，你知道我会做什么，像这样传递这些原则。这些债务原则。我觉得他们能帮上忙。
[00:24:02] And is there another one coming after that. Well life principles and principles. The one that I'm meant to write before this I wrote this debt one was economic investment principles because I think there were two things that I learned about through experiences of my 43 years of running Bridgwater.
[00：24：02]在那之后还会有其他人来吗？生活原则和原则。在此之前我要写的是我写的这个债务，一个是经济投资原则，因为我认为有两件事我从我43年经营Bridgwater的经历中学到了。
[00:24:24] And overseeing in various ways and that is how to run a company with a unique culture and how to be involved in the investment and economic area. And so I wanted to pass those along so that'll be coming but I don't know six or 12 months.
[00：24]并以各种方式监督，这就是如何经营一家具有独特文化的公司，以及如何参与投资和经济领域。所以我想把这些东西传过去，这样就会来了，但我不知道六十二个月。