iowa.ipynb

{"cells":[{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":1,"metadata":{},"outputs":[],"source":["import pandas as pd\n","import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n","import numpy as np\n","import json,urllib.request\n","import seaborn as sns\n","\n","URL = \"https://int.nyt.com/applications/elections/2020/data/api/2020-02-03/precincts/IowaDemPrecinctsSFTP-latest.json\"\n",""]},{"cell_type":"markdown","metadata":{},"source":[" The New York Times hosts the raw JSON data that they scrape from the IDP\n"," website publicly, so we can pull that data directly with an HTTP request."]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":2,"metadata":{},"outputs":[],"source":["data = urllib.request.urlopen(URL).read()\n","output = json.loads(data)\n",""]},{"cell_type":"markdown","metadata":{},"source":[" Data cleaning here is easy, partially because the NYT probably does a fair\n"," amount of cross-checking of their own and partially because weird data\n"," discrepancies are what we're really looking for."]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":3,"metadata":{},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/html":"<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>precinct</th>\n      <th>locality_name</th>\n      <th>locality_type</th>\n      <th>precinct_id</th>\n      <th>results_align1</th>\n      <th>results_alignfinal</th>\n      <th>results</th>\n      <th>votes</th>\n      <th>votes_align1</th>\n      <th>votes_alignfinal</th>\n      <th>name</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>FM5</td>\n      <td>Lee</td>\n      <td>county</td>\n      <td>947310</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 24, 'b...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 25, 'b...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0.42, ...</td>\n      <td>1.6800</td>\n      <td>91</td>\n      <td>91</td>\n      <td>Lee FM5</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>KE2A</td>\n      <td>Lee</td>\n      <td>county</td>\n      <td>947312</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 2, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>0.7000</td>\n      <td>22</td>\n      <td>22</td>\n      <td>Lee KE2A</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>8</td>\n      <td>Sac</td>\n      <td>county</td>\n      <td>947848</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 4, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 4, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0.0667...</td>\n      <td>0.2001</td>\n      <td>16</td>\n      <td>16</td>\n      <td>Sac 8</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>Sac</td>\n      <td>county</td>\n      <td>947845</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 2, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>0.2001</td>\n      <td>11</td>\n      <td>11</td>\n      <td>Sac 5</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>Sac</td>\n      <td>county</td>\n      <td>947842</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>0.1334</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>Sac 2</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n</div>","text/plain":"  precinct locality_name locality_type precinct_id  \\\n0      FM5           Lee        county      947310   \n1     KE2A           Lee        county      947312   \n2        8           Sac        county      947848   \n3        5           Sac        county      947845   \n4        2           Sac        county      947842   \n\n                                      results_align1  \\\n0  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 24, 'b...   \n1  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 2, 'bl...   \n2  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 4, 'bl...   \n3  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 2, 'bl...   \n4  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...   \n\n                                  results_alignfinal  \\\n0  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 25, 'b...   \n1  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...   \n2  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 4, 'bl...   \n3  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...   \n4  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...   \n\n                                             results   votes  votes_align1  \\\n0  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0.42, ...  1.6800            91   \n1  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...  0.7000            22   \n2  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0.0667...  0.2001            16   \n3  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...  0.2001            11   \n4  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...  0.1334             5   \n\n   votes_alignfinal      name  \n0                91   Lee FM5  \n1                22  Lee KE2A  \n2                16     Sac 8  \n3                11     Sac 5  \n4                 5     Sac 2  "},"execution_count":3,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["precincts = pd.DataFrame(output['precincts'])\n","\n","# Clean dataframe\n","drop_cols = [\"geo_id\",\"locality_fips\",\"is_complete\"]\n","\n","precincts['name'] = precincts.apply(lambda r: f\"{r.locality_name} {r.precinct}\", axis=1)\n","precincts = precincts.loc[precincts.is_complete,:]\n","precincts.drop(drop_cols, inplace=True, axis=1)\n","precincts.head()\n",""]},{"cell_type":"markdown","metadata":{},"source":[" We also have data about how state delegates are apportioned to each precinct.\n"," Let's merge that data in as well."]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":4,"metadata":{},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/html":"<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>locality_name</th>\n      <th>precinct</th>\n      <th>county_delegates</th>\n      <th>sde</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>Lee</td>\n      <td>FM4B</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>0.000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>Lee</td>\n      <td>KE2B</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>0.000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>Lee</td>\n      <td>HR</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>0.000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>Appanoose</td>\n      <td>CW</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0.160</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>Black Hawk</td>\n      <td>S000</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0.404</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n</div>","text/plain":"  locality_name precinct  county_delegates    sde\n0           Lee     FM4B                 0  0.000\n1           Lee     KE2B                 0  0.000\n2           Lee       HR                 0  0.000\n3     Appanoose       CW                 2  0.160\n4    Black Hawk     S000                 2  0.404"},"execution_count":4,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["delegates = pd.read_csv(\"delegates.csv\")\n","\n","cols_ren = {\n","    \"County\": \"locality_name\",\n","    \"Precinct Short Name\": \"precinct\", \n","    \"Delegates to County Convention\": \"county_delegates\",\n","    \"State Delegate Equivalents\": \"sde\"\n","}\n","delegates.rename(cols_ren, axis=1, inplace=True)\n","delegates.head()\n",""]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":5,"metadata":{},"outputs":[{"data":{"text/html":"<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>locality_type</th>\n      <th>precinct_id</th>\n      <th>results_align1</th>\n      <th>results_alignfinal</th>\n      <th>results</th>\n      <th>votes</th>\n      <th>votes_align1</th>\n      <th>votes_alignfinal</th>\n      <th>name</th>\n      <th>county_delegates</th>\n      <th>sde</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>county</td>\n      <td>947310</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 24, 'b...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 25, 'b...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0.42, ...</td>\n      <td>1.6800</td>\n      <td>91</td>\n      <td>91</td>\n      <td>Lee FM5</td>\n      <td>12</td>\n      <td>1.680000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>county</td>\n      <td>947312</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 2, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>0.7000</td>\n      <td>22</td>\n      <td>22</td>\n      <td>Lee KE2A</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>0.700000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>county</td>\n      <td>946816</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 18, 'b...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 19, 'b...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0.2824...</td>\n      <td>1.2237</td>\n      <td>71</td>\n      <td>71</td>\n      <td>Clay SP5</td>\n      <td>13</td>\n      <td>1.223529</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>county</td>\n      <td>946809</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 1, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>0.3764</td>\n      <td>17</td>\n      <td>15</td>\n      <td>Clay LNCL</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>0.376471</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>county</td>\n      <td>946805</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 4, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 4, 'bl...</td>\n      <td>{'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0.0941...</td>\n      <td>0.2823</td>\n      <td>19</td>\n      <td>19</td>\n      <td>Clay DGPE</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0.282353</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n</div>","text/plain":"  locality_type precinct_id  \\\n0        county      947310   \n1        county      947312   \n2        county      946816   \n3        county      946809   \n4        county      946805   \n\n                                      results_align1  \\\n0  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 24, 'b...   \n1  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 2, 'bl...   \n2  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 18, 'b...   \n3  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 1, 'bl...   \n4  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 4, 'bl...   \n\n                                  results_alignfinal  \\\n0  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 25, 'b...   \n1  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...   \n2  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 19, 'b...   \n3  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...   \n4  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 4, 'bl...   \n\n                                             results   votes  votes_align1  \\\n0  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0.42, ...  1.6800            91   \n1  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...  0.7000            22   \n2  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0.2824...  1.2237            71   \n3  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0, 'bl...  0.3764            17   \n4  {'delaneyj': 0, 'bennetm': 0, 'bidenj': 0.0941...  0.2823            19   \n\n   votes_alignfinal       name  county_delegates       sde  \n0                91    Lee FM5                12  1.680000  \n1                22   Lee KE2A                 5  0.700000  \n2                71   Clay SP5                13  1.223529  \n3                15  Clay LNCL                 4  0.376471  \n4                19  Clay DGPE                 3  0.282353  "},"execution_count":5,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["precincts = precincts.merge(delegates, on=['locality_name','precinct'])\n","precincts.drop(['locality_name','precinct'], inplace=True, axis=1)\n","precincts.head()\n",""]},{"cell_type":"markdown","metadata":{},"source":[" The rules of the caucus state that if a candidate meets viability, the voters\n"," for that candidate cannot leave their \"corner.\" However, we see many instances\n"," where Sanders meets the 15% threshold for viability but has fewer votes in the\n"," final expression than in the initial. Many precinct chairs failed to record\n"," final alignments, but still allocated SDEs correctly. We exclude instances of\n"," that error as we have no reason to assume that the SDE count was mistaken."]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":6,"metadata":{},"outputs":[{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":"38\n"},{"data":{"text/html":"<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>name</th>\n      <th>votes_align1</th>\n      <th>threshold</th>\n      <th>results_align1</th>\n      <th>results_alignfinal</th>\n      <th>lost_voters</th>\n      <th>results_SDE</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>Clinton CL21</td>\n      <td>90</td>\n      <td>13.50</td>\n      <td>26</td>\n      <td>20</td>\n      <td>6</td>\n      <td>0.4429</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>Linn TFAY</td>\n      <td>54</td>\n      <td>8.10</td>\n      <td>11</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>11</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>Linn TMAR</td>\n      <td>96</td>\n      <td>14.40</td>\n      <td>18</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>18</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>Linn HIA03</td>\n      <td>92</td>\n      <td>13.80</td>\n      <td>14</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>14</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>Lyon P2</td>\n      <td>11</td>\n      <td>1.65</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>Polk CLAY 1</td>\n      <td>72</td>\n      <td>10.80</td>\n      <td>12</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>12</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>6</td>\n      <td>Polk WDM-313</td>\n      <td>148</td>\n      <td>22.20</td>\n      <td>23</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>23</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>7</td>\n      <td>Tama YK</td>\n      <td>16</td>\n      <td>2.40</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>8</td>\n      <td>Mills EM</td>\n      <td>15</td>\n      <td>2.25</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>9</td>\n      <td>Scott MC</td>\n      <td>42</td>\n      <td>6.30</td>\n      <td>9</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>9</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>10</td>\n      <td>Keokuk AD</td>\n      <td>14</td>\n      <td>2.10</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>11</td>\n      <td>Keokuk SG1</td>\n      <td>20</td>\n      <td>3.00</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>12</td>\n      <td>Warren PM</td>\n      <td>33</td>\n      <td>4.95</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>13</td>\n      <td>Calhoun UNION</td>\n      <td>14</td>\n      <td>2.10</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>14</td>\n      <td>Clinton SHLN</td>\n      <td>21</td>\n      <td>3.15</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>15</td>\n      <td>Fayette JF</td>\n      <td>26</td>\n      <td>3.90</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>16</td>\n      <td>Fayette UN</td>\n      <td>16</td>\n      <td>2.40</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>17</td>\n      <td>Johnson HD</td>\n      <td>55</td>\n      <td>8.25</td>\n      <td>10</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>10</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>18</td>\n      <td>Johnson GR</td>\n      <td>54</td>\n      <td>8.10</td>\n      <td>9</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>9</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>19</td>\n      <td>Mahaska ED</td>\n      <td>11</td>\n      <td>1.65</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>20</td>\n      <td>Mahaska AD</td>\n      <td>11</td>\n      <td>1.65</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>21</td>\n      <td>Osceola HA</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>0.75</td>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>22</td>\n      <td>Crawford CO</td>\n      <td>24</td>\n      <td>3.60</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>23</td>\n      <td>Crawford SRK</td>\n      <td>20</td>\n      <td>3.00</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>24</td>\n      <td>Humboldt NL-EV</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0.45</td>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>25</td>\n      <td>Appanoose CW</td>\n      <td>13</td>\n      <td>1.95</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>26</td>\n      <td>Muscatine OR</td>\n      <td>14</td>\n      <td>2.10</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>27</td>\n      <td>Muscatine PI</td>\n      <td>23</td>\n      <td>3.45</td>\n      <td>7</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>7</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>28</td>\n      <td>Van Buren ML</td>\n      <td>8</td>\n      <td>1.20</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>29</td>\n      <td>Van Buren SP</td>\n      <td>6</td>\n      <td>0.90</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>30</td>\n      <td>Winnebago FC 4</td>\n      <td>43</td>\n      <td>6.45</td>\n      <td>7</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>7</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>31</td>\n      <td>Washington WC</td>\n      <td>34</td>\n      <td>5.10</td>\n      <td>6</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>6</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>32</td>\n      <td>Buena Vista TRWG</td>\n      <td>21</td>\n      <td>3.15</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>33</td>\n      <td>Cerro Gordo MV</td>\n      <td>15</td>\n      <td>2.25</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>34</td>\n      <td>Cerro Gordo LCN</td>\n      <td>29</td>\n      <td>4.35</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>35</td>\n      <td>Cerro Gordo LK</td>\n      <td>22</td>\n      <td>3.30</td>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>36</td>\n      <td>Cerro Gordo POD</td>\n      <td>31</td>\n      <td>4.65</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>37</td>\n      <td>Pottawattamie MACEDON</td>\n      <td>9</td>\n      <td>1.35</td>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n</div>","text/plain":"                     name  votes_align1  threshold  results_align1  \\\n0            Clinton CL21            90      13.50              26   \n1               Linn TFAY            54       8.10              11   \n2               Linn TMAR            96      14.40              18   \n3              Linn HIA03            92      13.80              14   \n4                 Lyon P2            11       1.65               2   \n5             Polk CLAY 1            72      10.80              12   \n6            Polk WDM-313           148      22.20              23   \n7                 Tama YK            16       2.40               3   \n8                Mills EM            15       2.25               4   \n9                Scott MC            42       6.30               9   \n10              Keokuk AD            14       2.10               3   \n11             Keokuk SG1            20       3.00               4   \n12              Warren PM            33       4.95               5   \n13          Calhoun UNION            14       2.10               3   \n14           Clinton SHLN            21       3.15               4   \n15             Fayette JF            26       3.90               4   \n16             Fayette UN            16       2.40               4   \n17             Johnson HD            55       8.25              10   \n18             Johnson GR            54       8.10               9   \n19             Mahaska ED            11       1.65               2   \n20             Mahaska AD            11       1.65               2   \n21             Osceola HA             5       0.75               1   \n22            Crawford CO            24       3.60               5   \n23           Crawford SRK            20       3.00               3   \n24         Humboldt NL-EV             3       0.45               1   \n25           Appanoose CW            13       1.95               2   \n26           Muscatine OR            14       2.10               4   \n27           Muscatine PI            23       3.45               7   \n28           Van Buren ML             8       1.20               2   \n29           Van Buren SP             6       0.90               2   \n30         Winnebago FC 4            43       6.45               7   \n31          Washington WC            34       5.10               6   \n32       Buena Vista TRWG            21       3.15               5   \n33         Cerro Gordo MV            15       2.25               3   \n34        Cerro Gordo LCN            29       4.35               5   \n35         Cerro Gordo LK            22       3.30               4   \n36        Cerro Gordo POD            31       4.65               5   \n37  Pottawattamie MACEDON             9       1.35               3   \n\n    results_alignfinal  lost_voters  results_SDE  \n0                   20            6       0.4429  \n1                    0           11       0.0000  \n2                    0           18       0.0000  \n3                    0           14       0.0000  \n4                    0            2       0.0000  \n5                    0           12       0.0000  \n6                    0           23       0.0000  \n7                    0            3       0.0000  \n8                    0            4       0.0000  \n9                    0            9       0.0000  \n10                   0            3       0.0000  \n11                   0            4       0.0000  \n12                   0            5       0.0000  \n13                   0            3       0.0000  \n14                   0            4       0.0000  \n15                   0            4       0.0000  \n16                   0            4       0.0000  \n17                   0           10       0.0000  \n18                   0            9       0.0000  \n19                   0            2       0.0000  \n20                   0            2       0.0000  \n21                   0            1       0.0000  \n22                   0            5       0.0000  \n23                   0            3       0.0000  \n24                   0            1       0.0000  \n25                   0            2       0.0000  \n26                   1            3       0.0000  \n27                   0            7       0.0000  \n28                   0            2       0.0000  \n29                   0            2       0.0000  \n30                   0            7       0.0000  \n31                   0            6       0.0000  \n32                   3            2       0.0000  \n33                   0            3       0.0000  \n34                   0            5       0.0000  \n35                   1            3       0.0000  \n36                   0            5       0.0000  \n37                   2            1       0.0000  "},"execution_count":6,"metadata":{},"output_type":"execute_result"}],"source":["def f(row):\n","    is_viable = row['results_align1']['sandersb'] >= 0.15 * row['votes_align1']\n","    lost_voters = row['results_align1']['sandersb'] > row['results_alignfinal']['sandersb']\n","    bad_report = row['results_alignfinal']['sandersb'] == 0 and row['results']['sandersb'] != 0\n","    \n","    info = {\n","        'name': row['name'],\n","        'votes_align1': row['votes_align1'],\n","        'threshold': row['votes_align1'] * 0.15,\n","        'results_align1': row['results_align1']['sandersb'],\n","        'results_alignfinal': row['results_alignfinal']['sandersb'],\n","        'lost_voters': row['results_align1']['sandersb'] - row['results_alignfinal']['sandersb'],\n","        'results_SDE': row['results']['sandersb']\n","    }\n","\n","    if is_viable and lost_voters and not bad_report:\n","        return info\n","\n","    #return is_viable and lost_voters\n","\n","data = list(precincts.apply(f, result_type='expand', axis=1))\n","data = [d for d in data if d != None]\n","stolen = pd.DataFrame(data)\n","print(len(stolen))\n","stolen\n",""]},{"cell_type":"markdown","metadata":{},"source":[" This gives us 45 precincts where Sanders voters are excluded from the final\n"," expression. In almost all of these precincts, he receives no votes in the\n"," final alignment, and is awarded no SDEs."]},{"cell_type":"markdown","metadata":{},"source":[" Errors can also be made in the assignment of SDEs.\n","\n"," Looking for problem precincts with these properties:\n"," * Sanders has final alignment equal to or greater than his initial alignment\n"," * Gets no delegates\n"," * And is viable (15%)"]},{"cell_type":"code","execution_count":7,"metadata":{},"outputs":[{"name":"stdout","output_type":"stream","text":"46\n"}],"source":["def check(row):\n","    total_votes = max(row.votes_align1, row.votes_alignfinal)\n","\n","    alignment = row['results_alignfinal']['sandersb'] >= row['results_align1']['sandersb']\n","    no_SDE = row['results']['sandersb'] == 0\n","    viable = row['results_alignfinal']['sandersb'] > row['votes_alignfinal'] * .15\n","    \n","    return alignment and no_SDE and viable\n","\n","problems = precincts.apply(check, axis=1)\n","problems_df = precincts.loc[problems,:]\n","print(len(problems_df))\n",""]}],"nbformat":4,"nbformat_minor":2,"metadata":{"language_info":{"name":"python","codemirror_mode":{"name":"ipython","version":3}},"orig_nbformat":2,"file_extension":".py","mimetype":"text/x-python","name":"python","npconvert_exporter":"python","pygments_lexer":"ipython3","version":3}}