Calculating the number of females needed for mutating a specific stat in ARK

how_many_females.ipynb

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    "# How many females needed for a high chance of the *right* mutation in ARK?\n",
    "\n",
    "**Question: How many females are needed if we want to get a mutation in a specific stat?** \n",
    "\n",
    "For breeders in ARK it is important to know how many females they need or how many eggs they have to hatch in order to get a mutation on the *right stat*. These numbers vary a lot by the mutation chance and the way the breeding is done. With this code we look into all possibilities for unmodded ARK and modded ARK (S+ Mutator) to find the answer to the question above. "
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    "# Fixed mutation chances in the game. We use these numbers as the base for our calculations. \n",
    "mut_chance_normal = 0.07314063\n",
    "mut_chance_one_side = 0.0407\n",
    "mut_chance_mutator = 1\n",
    "mut_chance_mutator_one_side = 0.5"
   ]
  },
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   "source": [
    "## Calculation how many females are needed\n",
    "\n",
    "We print out the amount of females needed depending on the mutatable stats and the accepted failure rate.\n",
    "\n",
    "- 6 mutatable stats = flyers, Shadowmanes etc\n",
    "- 7 mutatable stats = normal creatures like Rexes\n",
    "- 8 mutatable stats = Gachas"
   ]
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     "text": [
      "Mutation chance, failure rate, num females\n",
      "\n",
      "6 stats:\n",
      "           7.3%         10.0%          188\n",
      "           7.3%          5.0%          245\n",
      "           4.1%         10.0%          339\n",
      "           4.1%          5.0%          441\n",
      "         100.0%         10.0%           13\n",
      "         100.0%          5.0%           17\n",
      "          50.0%         10.0%           27\n",
      "          50.0%          5.0%           35\n",
      "\n",
      "7 stats:\n",
      "           7.3%         10.0%          220\n",
      "           7.3%          5.0%          286\n",
      "           4.1%         10.0%          395\n",
      "           4.1%          5.0%          514\n",
      "         100.0%         10.0%           15\n",
      "         100.0%          5.0%           20\n",
      "          50.0%         10.0%           32\n",
      "          50.0%          5.0%           41\n",
      "\n",
      "8 stats:\n",
      "           7.3%         10.0%          251\n",
      "           7.3%          5.0%          327\n",
      "           4.1%         10.0%          452\n",
      "           4.1%          5.0%          588\n",
      "         100.0%         10.0%           18\n",
      "         100.0%          5.0%           23\n",
      "          50.0%         10.0%           36\n",
      "          50.0%          5.0%           47\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "import math\n",
    "\n",
    "print('Mutation chance, failure rate, num females')\n",
    "\n",
    "for num_stats in range(6,9):\n",
    "    print(f'\\n{num_stats} stats:')\n",
    "\n",
    "    for mut_chance in [mut_chance_normal, mut_chance_one_side, mut_chance_mutator, mut_chance_mutator_one_side]:\n",
    "        for fails in [0.1, 0.05]:  # 10% and 5% chance of failing a round\n",
    "\n",
    "            # Calculate failure chance\n",
    "            chance = 1 - (mut_chance / num_stats)\n",
    "\n",
    "            # Calculate number of females needed\n",
    "            females = math.log(fails) / math.log(chance)\n",
    "\n",
    "            print(f'{mut_chance*100:>14.1f}%{fails*100:>13}%{math.ceil(females):>13}')"
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