Torvaney

library(tidyverse)

# CF en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession

# True probabilities
true_probs <- c(0.1, 0.3, 0.7, 0.9)
# How many runs for each probability and prior?
n_repetitions <- 10
# How many observations to update estimated probability?
n_observations <- 500

Torvaney

library(tidyverse)
library(lubridate)

source("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mjfrigaard/RDataSets/master/DotR/monarchs.R")

monarchs <- 
  monarchs %>%
  mutate(reign_length = lubridate::interval(from, to) / years(1))

monarchs %>% 

Torvaney

Torvaney

---
title: "UK flights"
---


```{r}
library(tidyverse)
library(rvest)
```

Torvaney

# install.packages("babynames")
library(babynames)

babynames %>% 
  filter(str_detect(name, "Hill?ary")) %>% 
  count(year, sex, wt = prop) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = year, y = nn)) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = sex)) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format()) +
  theme_minimal() +

Torvaney

match_id,date,home,away,hgoals,agoals,side,xg,league,season
4749,2014-08-16T12:45:00Z,Manchester United,Swansea,1,2,h,0.01874101348221302,EPL,2014
4749,2014-08-16T12:45:00Z,Manchester United,Swansea,1,2,h,0.015597633086144924,EPL,2014
4749,2014-08-16T12:45:00Z,Manchester United,Swansea,1,2,h,0.06492315977811813,EPL,2014
4749,2014-08-16T12:45:00Z,Manchester United,Swansea,1,2,h,0.057787537574768066,EPL,2014
4749,2014-08-16T12:45:00Z,Manchester United,Swansea,1,2,h,0.0488010048866272,EPL,2014
4749,2014-08-16T12:45:00Z,Manchester United,Swansea,1,2,h,0.03097105398774147,EPL,2014
4749,2014-08-16T12:45:00Z,Manchester United,Swansea,1,2,h,0.02559618093073368,EPL,2014
4749,2014-08-16T12:45:00Z,Manchester United,Swansea,1,2,h,0.06947857141494751,EPL,2014
4749,2014-08-16T12:45:00Z,Manchester United,Swansea,1,2,h,0.5765787363052368,EPL,2014

Torvaney

benchmark <-
  games %>%
  mutate(
    outcome = case_when(
      hgoals > agoals  ~ "home_win",
      agoals > hgoals  ~ "away_win",
      hgoals == agoals ~ "draw"
    )
  ) %>%
  count(outcome) %>%

Torvaney

to_clipboard <- function(data) {
  clip <- pipe("pbcopy", "w")                       
  write.table(data, file = clip, row.names = FALSE)                               
  close(clip)
}

Torvaney

lower_bound <- function(d) {
  (1 - sqrt(1 - 2*d)) / 2
}

upper_bound <- function(d) {
  (1 + sqrt(1 - 2*d)) / 2
}

tibble(d = seq(0, 0.5, 0.001),
       lower = lower_bound(d),

Torvaney

suppressPackageStartupMessages({                                           
  library(tidyverse)                                                         
  library(sf)                                                                
})                                                                         

# c.f. http://web.mit.edu/tee/www/bertrand/problem.html                    

chord_length <- function(theta) {                                          
  2 * sin(theta / 2)                                                         
}