chrishanretty

library(foreign)
library(gdata)

### Load archigos data
### from http://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/data.htm
archi <- read.dta("Archigos_2.9-Public.dta")
### Only `irregular' leader transitions with popular support
### with or without foreign support
archi <- subset(archi,exit==3 & exitcode %in% c(1,2))

chrishanretty

% Constrained multivariate normals in Stan % Chris Hanretty % 2014/02/27

Suppose we are interested in recovered the location parameters of a multivariate normal distribution with a known covariance matrix. Specifically, suppose we are interested in recovering the location parameters given a covariance matrix that forces draws from this multivariate normal to sum to one. This would be useful for recovering information about `true' latent levels of party support given manifest polling data. In this case, we could use polling figures ($y_i$ for $i=1,...,I$) to construct a covariance matrix of the following form:

$$

chrishanretty

### Libraries
library(pscl)
library(rjags)
library(rstan)
data(AustralianElectionPolling,package="pscl")
dat <- AustralianElectionPolling



dat$startDate <- as.Date(dat$startDate)

chrishanretty

library(rgeos)
library(sp) ## the best package for handling shapefiles
library(spdep) ## for the function poly2nb
library(maptools) ## for the function readShapePoly
library(RColorBrewer) ## for pretty colour palettes
### Read in the shapefile
x <- readShapePoly("data/westminster_const_region.shp")

## Add the Press Association number
name2pa <- read.csv("data/name2pa.csv",header=T)

chrishanretty

## ----loadlibs, echo = FALSE----------------------------------------------
library(foreign)
library(lme4)
library(maptools)
library(car)
library(R2WinBUGS)
library(spdep)
library(ggplot2)
library(scales)

chrishanretty

library(foreign)
library(car)
library(broom)
library(reshape)
library(ggplot2)

dat <- read.spss("BES2015_W2_Panel_v2.0.sav",to.data.frame = TRUE)

### First, left-right values
### Here, positive values -> more left wing

chrishanretty

## ----Setup, include=FALSE, results="hide", warning=FALSE, eval = TRUE----
## This chunk is for setting nice options for the output. Notice how
## we create both png and pdf files by default, so that we can easily process
## to both HTML and LaTeX/PDF files later.
opts_chunk$set(fig.path='figures/paper-', cache.path='cache/report-', dev=c("png","pdf"), fig.width=14, fig.height=7, fig.show='hold', fig.lp="fig:", cache=FALSE, par=TRUE, echo=FALSE, results="hide", message=FALSE, warning=FALSE, dpi = 300)
knit_hooks$set(par=function(before, options, envir){
if (before && options$fig.show!='none') par(mar=c(4,4,2,.1),cex.lab=.95,cex.axis=.9,mgp=c(2,.7,0),tcl=-.3)
}, crop=hook_pdfcrop) 

chrishanretty

## ----libraries, echo = FALSE, message = FALSE, warning = FALSE-----------
library(foreign)
library(cem)
library(MatchIt)


## ----datain, echo = FALSE, message = FALSE, warning = FALSE--------------
## Requires you to download the file from http://bes2009-10.org/bes-data.php
dat <- read.spss("CIPSDEC2311.SAV",to.data.frame = T)

chrishanretty

dat <- read.fwf("cses4.dat", 
	widths  = c(13, 14, 35, 8, 8, 18, 4, 1, 4, 10, 18, 18, 18, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4, 2, 2, 4, 1, 1, 
	6, 1, 2, 2, 4, 3, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 4, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 5, 3, 4, 
	1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 
	2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 
	1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 3, 16, 
	16, 16, 17, 17, 17, 18, 17, 18, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 17, 17, 17, 16, 16, 17, 17, 16, 16, 17, 17, 17, 
	16, 16, 16, 16, 17, 16, 16, 17, 16, 15, 16, 16, 16, 16, 17, 17, 3, 3, 16, 16, 17, 17, 18, 16, 16, 16, 3, 16, 
	16, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2,
	 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 

chrishanretty

library(gdata)
library(countrycode)

infile <- "IMFmultipliers.xls"
imf_rep <- read.xls(infile, sheet = 2,
	skip = 3,
	header=F)

names(imf_rep) <- c("Country",
	"gdp_4cast_2011","gdp_4cast_2012",