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MLFin Replicate Paper by Rapach, Strauss, Tu, Zhou.ipynb
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mlfin-replicate-paper-by-rapach-strauss-tu-zhou.ipynb
{
"nbformat": 4,
"nbformat_minor": 0,
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"name": "MLFin Replicate Paper by Rapach, Strauss, Tu, Zhou.ipynb",
"provenance": [],
"collapsed_sections": [
"GKFBQzIHfkbr"
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"include_colab_link": true
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"codemirror_mode": {
"name": "ipython",
"version": 3
},
"file_extension": ".py",
"mimetype": "text/x-python",
"name": "python",
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
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"display_name": "tensorflow3",
"language": "python",
"name": "tensorflow3"
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"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"id": "view-in-github",
"colab_type": "text"
},
"source": [
"<a href=\"https://colab.research.google.com/gist/firmai/27c9042a4568d6ddc3cb4802659df0dd/mlfin-replicate-paper-by-rapach-strauss-tu-zhou.ipynb\" target=\"_parent\"><img src=\"https://colab.research.google.com/assets/colab-badge.svg\" alt=\"Open In Colab\"/></a>"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"id": "aIP2O7ORjARs"
},
"source": [
"## Industury Factors"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"id": "fQKJm2jGEfZF"
},
"source": [
"\n",
"This notebook is wholly inspired by Druce Vertes from Streeteye.com, do pay him some support."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"id": "3lRSi-4zfkXp"
},
"source": [
"Replicate [Dynamic Return Dependencies Across Industries: A Machine Learning Approach](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3120110&download=yes) by David Rapach, Jack Strauss, Jun Tu and Guofu Zhou.\n",
"\n",
"1) Use industry returns from [Ken French](http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html)\n",
"\n",
"2) Forecast (for example) this month's Chemical industry return using last month's returns from all 30 industries\n",
"\n",
"3) Use LASSO for predictor subset selection over the entire 1960-2016 period to determine that e.g. Beer is predicted by Food, Clothing, Coal\n",
"\n",
"4) Use LASSO-selected predictors and simple linear regression to predict returns\n",
"\n",
"5) Generate portfolios and run backtests.\n",
"\n",
"- Predictor selection - finds same predictors except 2 industries. Possibly use of AICc instead of AIC (don't see an sklearn implementation that uses AICc)\n",
"\n",
"- Prediction by industry - R-squareds line up pretty closely\n",
"\n",
"- Portfolio performance, similar ballpark results. Maybe AICc/AIC; Also paper standardizes predictors, which is pretty standard. Finally, for some reason their mean returns don't line up to geometric mean annualized, they seem to be calculating something different.\n",
"\n",
"- Replicating exactly is hard but it does replicate closely and perform well\n",
"\n",
"6) Run various sklearn regressors to see which performs best, understand metrics that predict performance. MSE does not predict Sharpe. Kendall's tau, i.e. correlation of predicted vs. actual rankings, performs better.\n",
"\n",
"7) Tune ElasticNet to get slightly better performance than Lasso/OLS\n",
"\n",
"8) Run Keras NNs. They don't improve on Lasso/OLS or ElasticNet.\n",
"\n",
"\n",
""
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "8NNyTvkGkA5U"
},
"source": [
"#!pip install beakerx"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "7V4P7roTkUTP",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
},
"outputId": "2202bcaf-65aa-46e9-a662-3825d65a220c"
},
"source": [
"# !pip install -U scikit-learn==0.21.3\n",
"!pip install plotly==2.0.0\n",
"# restart when done"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"Requirement already satisfied: plotly==2.0.0 in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (2.0.0)\n",
"Requirement already satisfied: six in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from plotly==2.0.0) (1.15.0)\n",
"Requirement already satisfied: requests in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from plotly==2.0.0) (2.23.0)\n",
"Requirement already satisfied: pytz in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from plotly==2.0.0) (2018.9)\n",
"Requirement already satisfied: urllib3!=1.25.0,!=1.25.1,<1.26,>=1.21.1 in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from requests->plotly==2.0.0) (1.24.3)\n",
"Requirement already satisfied: chardet<4,>=3.0.2 in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from requests->plotly==2.0.0) (3.0.4)\n",
"Requirement already satisfied: certifi>=2017.4.17 in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from requests->plotly==2.0.0) (2021.10.8)\n",
"Requirement already satisfied: idna<3,>=2.5 in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages (from requests->plotly==2.0.0) (2.10)\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "-xj-ey0VfkXq",
"outputId": "0a1f835c-3327-4218-fef5-b21bfb53f3f1",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 141
}
},
"source": [
"import os\n",
"import sys\n",
"import warnings\n",
"import numpy as np\n",
"import pandas as pd\n",
"import time\n",
"import copy\n",
"import random\n",
"from itertools import product\n",
"\n",
"os.environ['TF_CPP_MIN_LOG_LEVEL'] = '3' #Hide messy TensorFlow warnings\n",
"warnings.filterwarnings(\"ignore\") #Hide messy numpy warnings\n",
"\n",
"import sklearn\n",
"from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split, KFold\n",
"from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix, mean_squared_error, explained_variance_score, r2_score, accuracy_score\n",
"from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression, Lasso, lasso_path, lars_path, LassoLarsIC\n",
"from sklearn.ensemble._forest import RandomForestRegressor\n",
"from sklearn.neural_network import MLPRegressor\n",
"from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler, StandardScaler\n",
"from sklearn.utils import all_estimators\n",
"import xgboost\n",
"\n",
"from scipy.stats import chisquare, kendalltau\n",
"\n",
"import tensorflow.compat.v1 as tf\n",
"tf.disable_v2_behavior()\n",
"\n",
"tf.set_random_seed(1764)\n",
"# tf.random.set_seed()\n",
"print(tf.__version__)\n",
"# confirm GPU is in use\n",
"with tf.device('/gpu:0'):\n",
" a = tf.constant([1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 6.0], shape=[2, 3], name='a')\n",
" b = tf.constant([1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 6.0], shape=[3, 2], name='b')\n",
" c = tf.matmul(a, b)\n",
"\n",
"with tf.Session() as sess:\n",
" print (sess.run(c))\n",
"\n",
"import keras\n",
"from keras.layers.core import Dense, Activation\n",
"from keras.layers import Input\n",
"from keras.models import Model\n",
"\n",
"from keras.layers.recurrent import LSTM, GRU\n",
"from keras.regularizers import l1\n",
"from keras.models import Sequential\n",
"from keras.models import load_model\n",
"\n",
"#import ffn\n",
"import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
"%matplotlib inline\n",
"import seaborn as sns\n",
"\n",
"# this will make dataframe display as sortable widget\n",
"# commented out because sortable tables not viewable using nbviewer\n",
"#from beakerx import *\n",
"\n",
"import plotly\n",
"# print (plotly.__version__) # requires version >= 1.9.0\n",
"from plotly.offline import download_plotlyjs, init_notebook_mode, plot, iplot\n",
"from plotly.graph_objs import *\n",
"import plotly.figure_factory as ff\n",
"\n",
"init_notebook_mode(connected=True)\n",
"\n",
"random.seed(1764)\n",
"np.random.seed(1764)\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"WARNING:tensorflow:From /usr/local/lib/python3.7/dist-packages/tensorflow/python/compat/v2_compat.py:111: disable_resource_variables (from tensorflow.python.ops.variable_scope) is deprecated and will be removed in a future version.\n",
"Instructions for updating:\n",
"non-resource variables are not supported in the long term\n",
"2.7.0\n",
"[[22. 28.]\n",
" [49. 64.]]\n"
]
},
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<script>requirejs.config({paths: { 'plotly': ['https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-latest.min']},});if(!window.Plotly) {{require(['plotly'],function(plotly) {window.Plotly=plotly;});}}</script>"
],
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"<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"
]
},
"metadata": {}
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"id": "M7dE96IAfkXy"
},
"source": [
"### 1. Replicate paper"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "f3DSQj07mM8d"
},
"source": [
"## Save future files to your drive\n",
"import numpy as np\n",
"# from google.colab import drive\n",
"# drive.mount('/content/drive',force_remount=True)\n",
"# %cd \"/content/drive/My Drive/FirmAI/FinML/Data/Industry Factors\"\n",
"\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "dyjHTej4fkXz",
"outputId": "598cdfab-5b0a-4fa2-e6a9-92a16b617473",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 490
}
},
"source": [
"print(\"Loading data...\")\n",
"data = pd.read_csv(\"https://storage.googleapis.com/public-quant/course//content/30_Industry_Portfolios.csv\")\n",
"data = data.set_index('yyyymm')\n",
"industries = list(data.columns)\n",
"# map industry names to col nums\n",
"ind_reverse_dict = dict([(industries[i], i) for i in range(len(industries))])\n",
"\n",
"rfdata = pd.read_csv(\"https://storage.googleapis.com/public-quant/course//content/F-F_Research_Data_Factors.csv\")\n",
"rfdata = rfdata.set_index('yyyymm')\n",
"data['rf'] = rfdata['RF']\n",
"\n",
"# subtract risk-free rate\n",
"# create a response variable led by 1 period to predict\n",
"for ind in industries:\n",
" data[ind] = data[ind] - data['rf']\n",
"\n",
"#for ind in industries:\n",
"# data[ind+\".3m\"] = pd.rolling_mean(data[ind],3)\n",
"\n",
"#for ind in industries:\n",
"# data[ind+\".6m\"] = pd.rolling_mean(data[ind],6)\n",
"\n",
"#for ind in industries:\n",
"# data[ind+\".12m\"] = pd.rolling_mean(data[ind],12)\n",
"\n",
"# Create lead columns\n",
"for ind in industries:\n",
" data[ind+\".lead\"] = data[ind].shift(-1)\n",
"\n",
"data = data.loc[data.index[data.index > 195911]]\n",
"data = data.drop(columns=['rf'])\n",
"data = data.dropna(axis=0, how='any')\n",
"\n",
"nresponses = len(industries)\n",
"npredictors = data.shape[1]-nresponses\n",
"\n",
"predictors = list(data.columns[:npredictors])\n",
"predictor_reverse_dict = dict([(predictors[i], i) for i in range(len(predictors))])\n",
"\n",
"responses = list(data.columns[-nresponses:])\n",
"response_reverse_dict = dict([(responses[i], i) for i in range(len(responses))])\n",
"\n",
"print(data.shape)\n",
"\n",
"data[['Food', 'Food.lead']]\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"Loading data...\n",
"(697, 60)\n"
]
},
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
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"\n",
" <div id=\"df-b5ad4dff-2108-46e2-8618-a628d53c0497\">\n",
" <div class=\"colab-df-container\">\n",
" <div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
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"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Food</th>\n",
" <th>Food.lead</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>yyyymm</th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>195912</th>\n",
" <td>2.01</td>\n",
" <td>-4.49</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>196001</th>\n",
" <td>-4.49</td>\n",
" <td>3.35</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>196002</th>\n",
" <td>3.35</td>\n",
" <td>-1.67</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>196003</th>\n",
" <td>-1.67</td>\n",
" <td>1.17</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>196004</th>\n",
" <td>1.17</td>\n",
" <td>8.20</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>...</th>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>201708</th>\n",
" <td>-2.77</td>\n",
" <td>0.43</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>201709</th>\n",
" <td>0.43</td>\n",
" <td>0.71</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>201710</th>\n",
" <td>0.71</td>\n",
" <td>4.15</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>201711</th>\n",
" <td>4.15</td>\n",
" <td>-0.10</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>201712</th>\n",
" <td>-0.10</td>\n",
" <td>2.27</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"<p>697 rows × 2 columns</p>\n",
"</div>\n",
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"\n",
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" [key], {});\n",
" if (!dataTable) return;\n",
"\n",
" const docLinkHtml = 'Like what you see? Visit the ' +\n",
" '<a target=\"_blank\" href=https://colab.research.google.com/notebooks/data_table.ipynb>data table notebook</a>'\n",
" + ' to learn more about interactive tables.';\n",
" element.innerHTML = '';\n",
" dataTable['output_type'] = 'display_data';\n",
" await google.colab.output.renderOutput(dataTable, element);\n",
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],
"text/plain": [
" Food Food.lead\n",
"yyyymm \n",
"195912 2.01 -4.49\n",
"196001 -4.49 3.35\n",
"196002 3.35 -1.67\n",
"196003 -1.67 1.17\n",
"196004 1.17 8.20\n",
"... ... ...\n",
"201708 -2.77 0.43\n",
"201709 0.43 0.71\n",
"201710 0.71 4.15\n",
"201711 4.15 -0.10\n",
"201712 -0.10 2.27\n",
"\n",
"[697 rows x 2 columns]"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 4
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "CY8mnEjbfkX3",
"outputId": "b3611434-03e8-4f42-d28b-eea23407bf00",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 519
}
},
"source": [
"# exclude 2017 and later to tie to paper\n",
"data = data.loc[data.index[data.index < 201701]]\n",
"data = data.loc[data.index[data.index > 195911]]\n",
"data\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/html": [
"\n",
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"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Food</th>\n",
" <th>Beer</th>\n",
" <th>Smoke</th>\n",
" <th>Games</th>\n",
" <th>Books</th>\n",
" <th>Hshld</th>\n",
" <th>Clths</th>\n",
" <th>Hlth</th>\n",
" <th>Chems</th>\n",
" <th>Txtls</th>\n",
" <th>Cnstr</th>\n",
" <th>Steel</th>\n",
" <th>FabPr</th>\n",
" <th>ElcEq</th>\n",
" <th>Autos</th>\n",
" <th>Carry</th>\n",
" <th>Mines</th>\n",
" <th>Coal</th>\n",
" <th>Oil</th>\n",
" <th>Util</th>\n",
" <th>Telcm</th>\n",
" <th>Servs</th>\n",
" <th>BusEq</th>\n",
" <th>Paper</th>\n",
" <th>Trans</th>\n",
" <th>Whlsl</th>\n",
" <th>Rtail</th>\n",
" <th>Meals</th>\n",
" <th>Fin</th>\n",
" <th>Other</th>\n",
" <th>Food.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Beer.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Smoke.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Games.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Books.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Hshld.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Clths.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Hlth.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Chems.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Txtls.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Cnstr.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Steel.lead</th>\n",
" <th>FabPr.lead</th>\n",
" <th>ElcEq.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Autos.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Carry.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Mines.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Coal.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Oil.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Util.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Telcm.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Servs.lead</th>\n",
" <th>BusEq.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Paper.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Trans.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Whlsl.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Rtail.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Meals.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Fin.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Other.lead</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>yyyymm</th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>195912</th>\n",
" <td>2.01</td>\n",
" <td>0.35</td>\n",
" <td>-3.02</td>\n",
" <td>1.64</td>\n",
" <td>7.29</td>\n",
" <td>0.67</td>\n",
" <td>1.87</td>\n",
" <td>-1.97</td>\n",
" <td>3.08</td>\n",
" <td>0.74</td>\n",
" <td>0.72</td>\n",
" <td>2.18</td>\n",
" <td>3.11</td>\n",
" <td>5.53</td>\n",
" <td>5.28</td>\n",
" <td>-4.88</td>\n",
" <td>4.40</td>\n",
" <td>2.07</td>\n",
" <td>3.93</td>\n",
" <td>1.79</td>\n",
" <td>3.97</td>\n",
" <td>-1.96</td>\n",
" <td>0.67</td>\n",
" <td>1.46</td>\n",
" <td>2.03</td>\n",
" <td>-0.30</td>\n",
" <td>2.41</td>\n",
" <td>2.71</td>\n",
" <td>0.15</td>\n",
" <td>-6.50</td>\n",
" <td>-4.49</td>\n",
" <td>-5.71</td>\n",
" <td>-2.05</td>\n",
" <td>1.21</td>\n",
" <td>-5.47</td>\n",
" <td>-7.84</td>\n",
" <td>-8.53</td>\n",
" <td>-6.68</td>\n",
" <td>-10.03</td>\n",
" <td>-4.77</td>\n",
" <td>-6.67</td>\n",
" <td>-9.38</td>\n",
" <td>-4.42</td>\n",
" <td>-12.30</td>\n",
" <td>-11.71</td>\n",
" <td>-5.03</td>\n",
" <td>-3.81</td>\n",
" <td>-7.91</td>\n",
" <td>-7.82</td>\n",
" <td>-2.40</td>\n",
" <td>0.62</td>\n",
" <td>-6.18</td>\n",
" <td>-7.93</td>\n",
" <td>-9.41</td>\n",
" <td>-4.31</td>\n",
" <td>-5.33</td>\n",
" <td>-6.09</td>\n",
" <td>-10.08</td>\n",
" <td>-4.68</td>\n",
" <td>-3.98</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>196001</th>\n",
" <td>-4.49</td>\n",
" <td>-5.71</td>\n",
" <td>-2.05</td>\n",
" <td>1.21</td>\n",
" <td>-5.47</td>\n",
" <td>-7.84</td>\n",
" <td>-8.53</td>\n",
" <td>-6.68</td>\n",
" <td>-10.03</td>\n",
" <td>-4.77</td>\n",
" <td>-6.67</td>\n",
" <td>-9.38</td>\n",
" <td>-4.42</td>\n",
" <td>-12.30</td>\n",
" <td>-11.71</td>\n",
" <td>-5.03</td>\n",
" <td>-3.81</td>\n",
" <td>-7.91</td>\n",
" <td>-7.82</td>\n",
" <td>-2.40</td>\n",
" <td>0.62</td>\n",
" <td>-6.18</td>\n",
" <td>-7.93</td>\n",
" <td>-9.41</td>\n",
" <td>-4.31</td>\n",
" <td>-5.33</td>\n",
" <td>-6.09</td>\n",
" <td>-10.08</td>\n",
" <td>-4.68</td>\n",
" <td>-3.98</td>\n",
" <td>3.35</td>\n",
" <td>-2.14</td>\n",
" <td>2.27</td>\n",
" <td>4.23</td>\n",
" <td>2.39</td>\n",
" <td>9.31</td>\n",
" <td>1.44</td>\n",
" <td>-0.02</td>\n",
" <td>-0.74</td>\n",
" <td>0.32</td>\n",
" <td>3.07</td>\n",
" <td>-2.03</td>\n",
" <td>-2.13</td>\n",
" <td>5.11</td>\n",
" <td>-2.15</td>\n",
" <td>2.05</td>\n",
" <td>1.57</td>\n",
" <td>-2.97</td>\n",
" <td>-3.74</td>\n",
" <td>2.48</td>\n",
" <td>8.07</td>\n",
" <td>9.13</td>\n",
" <td>5.09</td>\n",
" <td>3.00</td>\n",
" <td>-0.94</td>\n",
" <td>1.42</td>\n",
" <td>4.00</td>\n",
" <td>1.81</td>\n",
" <td>-0.98</td>\n",
" <td>6.32</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>196002</th>\n",
" <td>3.35</td>\n",
" <td>-2.14</td>\n",
" <td>2.27</td>\n",
" <td>4.23</td>\n",
" <td>2.39</td>\n",
" <td>9.31</td>\n",
" <td>1.44</td>\n",
" <td>-0.02</td>\n",
" <td>-0.74</td>\n",
" <td>0.32</td>\n",
" <td>3.07</td>\n",
" <td>-2.03</td>\n",
" <td>-2.13</td>\n",
" <td>5.11</td>\n",
" <td>-2.15</td>\n",
" <td>2.05</td>\n",
" <td>1.57</td>\n",
" <td>-2.97</td>\n",
" <td>-3.74</td>\n",
" <td>2.48</td>\n",
" <td>8.07</td>\n",
" <td>9.13</td>\n",
" <td>5.09</td>\n",
" <td>3.00</td>\n",
" <td>-0.94</td>\n",
" <td>1.42</td>\n",
" <td>4.00</td>\n",
" <td>1.81</td>\n",
" <td>-0.98</td>\n",
" <td>6.32</td>\n",
" <td>-1.67</td>\n",
" <td>-2.94</td>\n",
" <td>-0.18</td>\n",
" <td>-0.65</td>\n",
" <td>2.18</td>\n",
" <td>-0.56</td>\n",
" <td>-2.59</td>\n",
" <td>1.26</td>\n",
" <td>-2.75</td>\n",
" <td>-6.79</td>\n",
" <td>-0.78</td>\n",
" <td>-5.58</td>\n",
" <td>-3.58</td>\n",
" <td>-0.89</td>\n",
" <td>-6.64</td>\n",
" <td>-8.19</td>\n",
" <td>-2.99</td>\n",
" <td>-5.47</td>\n",
" <td>-1.07</td>\n",
" <td>1.42</td>\n",
" <td>-0.21</td>\n",
" <td>-0.31</td>\n",
" <td>3.34</td>\n",
" <td>-2.43</td>\n",
" <td>-4.99</td>\n",
" <td>-1.37</td>\n",
" <td>-0.13</td>\n",
" <td>-3.88</td>\n",
" <td>0.05</td>\n",
" <td>-2.43</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>196003</th>\n",
" <td>-1.67</td>\n",
" <td>-2.94</td>\n",
" <td>-0.18</td>\n",
" <td>-0.65</td>\n",
" <td>2.18</td>\n",
" <td>-0.56</td>\n",
" <td>-2.59</td>\n",
" <td>1.26</td>\n",
" <td>-2.75</td>\n",
" <td>-6.79</td>\n",
" <td>-0.78</td>\n",
" <td>-5.58</td>\n",
" <td>-3.58</td>\n",
" <td>-0.89</td>\n",
" <td>-6.64</td>\n",
" <td>-8.19</td>\n",
" <td>-2.99</td>\n",
" <td>-5.47</td>\n",
" <td>-1.07</td>\n",
" <td>1.42</td>\n",
" <td>-0.21</td>\n",
" <td>-0.31</td>\n",
" <td>3.34</td>\n",
" <td>-2.43</td>\n",
" <td>-4.99</td>\n",
" <td>-1.37</td>\n",
" <td>-0.13</td>\n",
" <td>-3.88</td>\n",
" <td>0.05</td>\n",
" <td>-2.43</td>\n",
" <td>1.17</td>\n",
" <td>-2.16</td>\n",
" <td>1.35</td>\n",
" <td>6.46</td>\n",
" <td>-1.17</td>\n",
" <td>-1.27</td>\n",
" <td>0.21</td>\n",
" <td>1.49</td>\n",
" <td>-5.53</td>\n",
" <td>-1.10</td>\n",
" <td>-1.45</td>\n",
" <td>-5.53</td>\n",
" <td>-4.10</td>\n",
" <td>-1.11</td>\n",
" <td>-2.31</td>\n",
" <td>-1.36</td>\n",
" <td>-0.81</td>\n",
" <td>-2.97</td>\n",
" <td>-4.48</td>\n",
" <td>1.18</td>\n",
" <td>-1.24</td>\n",
" <td>7.14</td>\n",
" <td>1.77</td>\n",
" <td>0.41</td>\n",
" <td>-2.13</td>\n",
" <td>0.45</td>\n",
" <td>-0.53</td>\n",
" <td>8.86</td>\n",
" <td>-0.64</td>\n",
" <td>0.55</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>196004</th>\n",
" <td>1.17</td>\n",
" <td>-2.16</td>\n",
" <td>1.35</td>\n",
" <td>6.46</td>\n",
" <td>-1.17</td>\n",
" <td>-1.27</td>\n",
" <td>0.21</td>\n",
" <td>1.49</td>\n",
" <td>-5.53</td>\n",
" <td>-1.10</td>\n",
" <td>-1.45</td>\n",
" <td>-5.53</td>\n",
" <td>-4.10</td>\n",
" <td>-1.11</td>\n",
" <td>-2.31</td>\n",
" <td>-1.36</td>\n",
" <td>-0.81</td>\n",
" <td>-2.97</td>\n",
" <td>-4.48</td>\n",
" <td>1.18</td>\n",
" <td>-1.24</td>\n",
" <td>7.14</td>\n",
" <td>1.77</td>\n",
" <td>0.41</td>\n",
" <td>-2.13</td>\n",
" <td>0.45</td>\n",
" <td>-0.53</td>\n",
" <td>8.86</td>\n",
" <td>-0.64</td>\n",
" <td>0.55</td>\n",
" <td>8.20</td>\n",
" <td>-0.52</td>\n",
" <td>2.44</td>\n",
" <td>7.28</td>\n",
" <td>11.67</td>\n",
" <td>7.74</td>\n",
" <td>1.74</td>\n",
" <td>13.50</td>\n",
" <td>3.40</td>\n",
" <td>2.10</td>\n",
" <td>3.18</td>\n",
" <td>2.35</td>\n",
" <td>0.92</td>\n",
" <td>6.48</td>\n",
" <td>0.27</td>\n",
" <td>9.27</td>\n",
" <td>-1.39</td>\n",
" <td>2.41</td>\n",
" <td>-3.85</td>\n",
" <td>1.25</td>\n",
" <td>3.05</td>\n",
" <td>-1.75</td>\n",
" <td>11.90</td>\n",
" <td>2.85</td>\n",
" <td>0.90</td>\n",
" <td>1.65</td>\n",
" <td>3.11</td>\n",
" <td>0.80</td>\n",
" <td>-0.45</td>\n",
" <td>1.02</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>...</th>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" <td>...</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>201608</th>\n",
" <td>-0.52</td>\n",
" <td>-0.90</td>\n",
" <td>-1.22</td>\n",
" <td>0.94</td>\n",
" <td>0.29</td>\n",
" <td>1.24</td>\n",
" <td>1.37</td>\n",
" <td>-3.24</td>\n",
" <td>2.48</td>\n",
" <td>1.03</td>\n",
" <td>0.80</td>\n",
" <td>-7.10</td>\n",
" <td>3.83</td>\n",
" <td>1.34</td>\n",
" <td>-0.32</td>\n",
" <td>0.29</td>\n",
" <td>-9.79</td>\n",
" <td>-4.54</td>\n",
" <td>1.39</td>\n",
" <td>-3.94</td>\n",
" <td>-3.56</td>\n",
" <td>1.19</td>\n",
" <td>2.38</td>\n",
" <td>2.46</td>\n",
" <td>1.09</td>\n",
" <td>-1.03</td>\n",
" <td>-1.69</td>\n",
" <td>-0.24</td>\n",
" <td>4.88</td>\n",
" <td>2.24</td>\n",
" <td>-2.92</td>\n",
" <td>1.63</td>\n",
" <td>-2.78</td>\n",
" <td>4.62</td>\n",
" <td>-3.95</td>\n",
" <td>0.00</td>\n",
" <td>-6.92</td>\n",
" <td>0.35</td>\n",
" <td>-1.76</td>\n",
" <td>-4.87</td>\n",
" <td>-2.42</td>\n",
" <td>1.91</td>\n",
" <td>2.54</td>\n",
" <td>0.98</td>\n",
" <td>-0.25</td>\n",
" <td>-0.61</td>\n",
" <td>2.14</td>\n",
" <td>7.66</td>\n",
" <td>2.92</td>\n",
" <td>1.73</td>\n",
" <td>0.52</td>\n",
" <td>0.82</td>\n",
" <td>4.33</td>\n",
" <td>-0.64</td>\n",
" <td>2.86</td>\n",
" <td>-2.56</td>\n",
" <td>-0.18</td>\n",
" <td>-2.25</td>\n",
" <td>-1.45</td>\n",
" <td>-3.48</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>201609</th>\n",
" <td>-2.92</td>\n",
" <td>1.63</td>\n",
" <td>-2.78</td>\n",
" <td>4.62</td>\n",
" <td>-3.95</td>\n",
" <td>0.00</td>\n",
" <td>-6.92</td>\n",
" <td>0.35</td>\n",
" <td>-1.76</td>\n",
" <td>-4.87</td>\n",
" <td>-2.42</td>\n",
" <td>1.91</td>\n",
" <td>2.54</td>\n",
" <td>0.98</td>\n",
" <td>-0.25</td>\n",
" <td>-0.61</td>\n",
" <td>2.14</td>\n",
" <td>7.66</td>\n",
" <td>2.92</td>\n",
" <td>1.73</td>\n",
" <td>0.52</td>\n",
" <td>0.82</td>\n",
" <td>4.33</td>\n",
" <td>-0.64</td>\n",
" <td>2.86</td>\n",
" <td>-2.56</td>\n",
" <td>-0.18</td>\n",
" <td>-2.25</td>\n",
" <td>-1.45</td>\n",
" <td>-3.48</td>\n",
" <td>-0.33</td>\n",
" <td>-1.65</td>\n",
" <td>4.59</td>\n",
" <td>5.59</td>\n",
" <td>-10.28</td>\n",
" <td>-2.96</td>\n",
" <td>-5.76</td>\n",
" <td>-7.45</td>\n",
" <td>-1.95</td>\n",
" <td>-4.17</td>\n",
" <td>-3.93</td>\n",
" <td>-3.14</td>\n",
" <td>-4.10</td>\n",
" <td>-4.99</td>\n",
" <td>-3.29</td>\n",
" <td>2.21</td>\n",
" <td>0.78</td>\n",
" <td>-8.69</td>\n",
" <td>-2.92</td>\n",
" <td>-0.63</td>\n",
" <td>-2.85</td>\n",
" <td>-0.55</td>\n",
" <td>-2.24</td>\n",
" <td>-5.49</td>\n",
" <td>-0.64</td>\n",
" <td>-8.18</td>\n",
" <td>-3.59</td>\n",
" <td>-1.96</td>\n",
" <td>1.40</td>\n",
" <td>-0.53</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>201610</th>\n",
" <td>-0.33</td>\n",
" <td>-1.65</td>\n",
" <td>4.59</td>\n",
" <td>5.59</td>\n",
" <td>-10.28</td>\n",
" <td>-2.96</td>\n",
" <td>-5.76</td>\n",
" <td>-7.45</td>\n",
" <td>-1.95</td>\n",
" <td>-4.17</td>\n",
" <td>-3.93</td>\n",
" <td>-3.14</td>\n",
" <td>-4.10</td>\n",
" <td>-4.99</td>\n",
" <td>-3.29</td>\n",
" <td>2.21</td>\n",
" <td>0.78</td>\n",
" <td>-8.69</td>\n",
" <td>-2.92</td>\n",
" <td>-0.63</td>\n",
" <td>-2.85</td>\n",
" <td>-0.55</td>\n",
" <td>-2.24</td>\n",
" <td>-5.49</td>\n",
" <td>-0.64</td>\n",
" <td>-8.18</td>\n",
" <td>-3.59</td>\n",
" <td>-1.96</td>\n",
" <td>1.40</td>\n",
" <td>-0.53</td>\n",
" <td>-4.41</td>\n",
" <td>-5.76</td>\n",
" <td>-5.12</td>\n",
" <td>3.87</td>\n",
" <td>8.15</td>\n",
" <td>-4.18</td>\n",
" <td>1.80</td>\n",
" <td>1.37</td>\n",
" <td>7.55</td>\n",
" <td>1.58</td>\n",
" <td>9.77</td>\n",
" <td>21.01</td>\n",
" <td>12.44</td>\n",
" <td>8.57</td>\n",
" <td>6.89</td>\n",
" <td>8.79</td>\n",
" <td>11.59</td>\n",
" <td>20.78</td>\n",
" <td>9.52</td>\n",
" <td>-2.85</td>\n",
" <td>6.25</td>\n",
" <td>-0.01</td>\n",
" <td>2.39</td>\n",
" <td>4.21</td>\n",
" <td>12.75</td>\n",
" <td>9.29</td>\n",
" <td>2.99</td>\n",
" <td>8.47</td>\n",
" <td>12.84</td>\n",
" <td>8.29</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>201611</th>\n",
" <td>-4.41</td>\n",
" <td>-5.76</td>\n",
" <td>-5.12</td>\n",
" <td>3.87</td>\n",
" <td>8.15</td>\n",
" <td>-4.18</td>\n",
" <td>1.80</td>\n",
" <td>1.37</td>\n",
" <td>7.55</td>\n",
" <td>1.58</td>\n",
" <td>9.77</td>\n",
" <td>21.01</td>\n",
" <td>12.44</td>\n",
" <td>8.57</td>\n",
" <td>6.89</td>\n",
" <td>8.79</td>\n",
" <td>11.59</td>\n",
" <td>20.78</td>\n",
" <td>9.52</td>\n",
" <td>-2.85</td>\n",
" <td>6.25</td>\n",
" <td>-0.01</td>\n",
" <td>2.39</td>\n",
" <td>4.21</td>\n",
" <td>12.75</td>\n",
" <td>9.29</td>\n",
" <td>2.99</td>\n",
" <td>8.47</td>\n",
" <td>12.84</td>\n",
" <td>8.29</td>\n",
" <td>4.43</td>\n",
" <td>3.00</td>\n",
" <td>5.39</td>\n",
" <td>-3.36</td>\n",
" <td>1.98</td>\n",
" <td>1.43</td>\n",
" <td>-0.44</td>\n",
" <td>0.82</td>\n",
" <td>0.32</td>\n",
" <td>-1.27</td>\n",
" <td>0.16</td>\n",
" <td>-2.14</td>\n",
" <td>-0.15</td>\n",
" <td>-0.40</td>\n",
" <td>4.16</td>\n",
" <td>1.40</td>\n",
" <td>-1.80</td>\n",
" <td>-9.68</td>\n",
" <td>2.17</td>\n",
" <td>3.61</td>\n",
" <td>4.65</td>\n",
" <td>-0.19</td>\n",
" <td>2.07</td>\n",
" <td>1.86</td>\n",
" <td>0.84</td>\n",
" <td>2.34</td>\n",
" <td>-0.98</td>\n",
" <td>0.58</td>\n",
" <td>3.80</td>\n",
" <td>2.57</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>201612</th>\n",
" <td>4.43</td>\n",
" <td>3.00</td>\n",
" <td>5.39</td>\n",
" <td>-3.36</td>\n",
" <td>1.98</td>\n",
" <td>1.43</td>\n",
" <td>-0.44</td>\n",
" <td>0.82</td>\n",
" <td>0.32</td>\n",
" <td>-1.27</td>\n",
" <td>0.16</td>\n",
" <td>-2.14</td>\n",
" <td>-0.15</td>\n",
" <td>-0.40</td>\n",
" <td>4.16</td>\n",
" <td>1.40</td>\n",
" <td>-1.80</td>\n",
" <td>-9.68</td>\n",
" <td>2.17</td>\n",
" <td>3.61</td>\n",
" <td>4.65</td>\n",
" <td>-0.19</td>\n",
" <td>2.07</td>\n",
" <td>1.86</td>\n",
" <td>0.84</td>\n",
" <td>2.34</td>\n",
" <td>-0.98</td>\n",
" <td>0.58</td>\n",
" <td>3.80</td>\n",
" <td>2.57</td>\n",
" <td>0.95</td>\n",
" <td>-1.02</td>\n",
" <td>5.61</td>\n",
" <td>4.84</td>\n",
" <td>1.60</td>\n",
" <td>2.72</td>\n",
" <td>-0.01</td>\n",
" <td>2.17</td>\n",
" <td>3.79</td>\n",
" <td>6.90</td>\n",
" <td>3.85</td>\n",
" <td>3.60</td>\n",
" <td>4.64</td>\n",
" <td>4.35</td>\n",
" <td>5.18</td>\n",
" <td>1.95</td>\n",
" <td>12.37</td>\n",
" <td>-5.36</td>\n",
" <td>-4.37</td>\n",
" <td>1.05</td>\n",
" <td>3.36</td>\n",
" <td>5.45</td>\n",
" <td>3.20</td>\n",
" <td>2.28</td>\n",
" <td>1.70</td>\n",
" <td>1.69</td>\n",
" <td>0.93</td>\n",
" <td>0.71</td>\n",
" <td>0.56</td>\n",
" <td>-0.87</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"<p>685 rows × 60 columns</p>\n",
"</div>\n",
" <button class=\"colab-df-convert\" onclick=\"convertToInteractive('df-f5d9f629-80aa-450d-9077-34374d1aa85f')\"\n",
" title=\"Convert this dataframe to an interactive table.\"\n",
" style=\"display:none;\">\n",
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" </svg>\n",
" </button>\n",
" \n",
" <style>\n",
" .colab-df-container {\n",
" display:flex;\n",
" flex-wrap:wrap;\n",
" gap: 12px;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .colab-df-convert {\n",
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" height: 32px;\n",
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" width: 32px;\n",
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"\n",
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" [theme=dark] .colab-df-convert {\n",
" background-color: #3B4455;\n",
" fill: #D2E3FC;\n",
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"\n",
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" buttonEl.style.display =\n",
" google.colab.kernel.accessAllowed ? 'block' : 'none';\n",
"\n",
" async function convertToInteractive(key) {\n",
" const element = document.querySelector('#df-f5d9f629-80aa-450d-9077-34374d1aa85f');\n",
" const dataTable =\n",
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" if (!dataTable) return;\n",
"\n",
" const docLinkHtml = 'Like what you see? Visit the ' +\n",
" '<a target=\"_blank\" href=https://colab.research.google.com/notebooks/data_table.ipynb>data table notebook</a>'\n",
" + ' to learn more about interactive tables.';\n",
" element.innerHTML = '';\n",
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" "
],
"text/plain": [
" Food Beer Smoke Games ... Rtail.lead Meals.lead Fin.lead Other.lead\n",
"yyyymm ... \n",
"195912 2.01 0.35 -3.02 1.64 ... -6.09 -10.08 -4.68 -3.98\n",
"196001 -4.49 -5.71 -2.05 1.21 ... 4.00 1.81 -0.98 6.32\n",
"196002 3.35 -2.14 2.27 4.23 ... -0.13 -3.88 0.05 -2.43\n",
"196003 -1.67 -2.94 -0.18 -0.65 ... -0.53 8.86 -0.64 0.55\n",
"196004 1.17 -2.16 1.35 6.46 ... 3.11 0.80 -0.45 1.02\n",
"... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...\n",
"201608 -0.52 -0.90 -1.22 0.94 ... -0.18 -2.25 -1.45 -3.48\n",
"201609 -2.92 1.63 -2.78 4.62 ... -3.59 -1.96 1.40 -0.53\n",
"201610 -0.33 -1.65 4.59 5.59 ... 2.99 8.47 12.84 8.29\n",
"201611 -4.41 -5.76 -5.12 3.87 ... -0.98 0.58 3.80 2.57\n",
"201612 4.43 3.00 5.39 -3.36 ... 0.93 0.71 0.56 -0.87\n",
"\n",
"[685 rows x 60 columns]"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 5
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "D8_fqeR-fkX7",
"outputId": "e9efb9e3-276a-4b0c-d263-8f614c557328",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 364
}
},
"source": [
"data.to_csv(\"data.csv\")\n",
"desc = data.describe()\n",
"desc\n",
"# min, max line up with Table 1"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/html": [
"\n",
" <div id=\"df-64a4700a-1e83-4129-ac5c-5f9ca7bc05dc\">\n",
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"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Food</th>\n",
" <th>Beer</th>\n",
" <th>Smoke</th>\n",
" <th>Games</th>\n",
" <th>Books</th>\n",
" <th>Hshld</th>\n",
" <th>Clths</th>\n",
" <th>Hlth</th>\n",
" <th>Chems</th>\n",
" <th>Txtls</th>\n",
" <th>Cnstr</th>\n",
" <th>Steel</th>\n",
" <th>FabPr</th>\n",
" <th>ElcEq</th>\n",
" <th>Autos</th>\n",
" <th>Carry</th>\n",
" <th>Mines</th>\n",
" <th>Coal</th>\n",
" <th>Oil</th>\n",
" <th>Util</th>\n",
" <th>Telcm</th>\n",
" <th>Servs</th>\n",
" <th>BusEq</th>\n",
" <th>Paper</th>\n",
" <th>Trans</th>\n",
" <th>Whlsl</th>\n",
" <th>Rtail</th>\n",
" <th>Meals</th>\n",
" <th>Fin</th>\n",
" <th>Other</th>\n",
" <th>Food.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Beer.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Smoke.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Games.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Books.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Hshld.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Clths.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Hlth.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Chems.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Txtls.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Cnstr.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Steel.lead</th>\n",
" <th>FabPr.lead</th>\n",
" <th>ElcEq.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Autos.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Carry.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Mines.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Coal.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Oil.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Util.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Telcm.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Servs.lead</th>\n",
" <th>BusEq.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Paper.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Trans.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Whlsl.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Rtail.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Meals.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Fin.lead</th>\n",
" <th>Other.lead</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>count</th>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.00000</td>\n",
" <td>685.00000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" <td>685.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>mean</th>\n",
" <td>0.690715</td>\n",
" <td>0.710613</td>\n",
" <td>0.982321</td>\n",
" <td>0.701708</td>\n",
" <td>0.528277</td>\n",
" <td>0.554190</td>\n",
" <td>0.669460</td>\n",
" <td>0.650905</td>\n",
" <td>0.519781</td>\n",
" <td>0.667416</td>\n",
" <td>0.523460</td>\n",
" <td>0.293810</td>\n",
" <td>0.562584</td>\n",
" <td>0.704219</td>\n",
" <td>0.453985</td>\n",
" <td>0.718730</td>\n",
" <td>0.548657</td>\n",
" <td>0.735547</td>\n",
" <td>0.650978</td>\n",
" <td>0.483606</td>\n",
" <td>0.521737</td>\n",
" <td>0.683416</td>\n",
" <td>0.580482</td>\n",
" <td>0.510044</td>\n",
" <td>0.582569</td>\n",
" <td>0.622657</td>\n",
" <td>0.664380</td>\n",
" <td>0.705650</td>\n",
" <td>0.609212</td>\n",
" <td>0.377401</td>\n",
" <td>0.689168</td>\n",
" <td>0.708613</td>\n",
" <td>0.99492</td>\n",
" <td>0.70638</td>\n",
" <td>0.519971</td>\n",
" <td>0.557182</td>\n",
" <td>0.666715</td>\n",
" <td>0.656949</td>\n",
" <td>0.520818</td>\n",
" <td>0.676409</td>\n",
" <td>0.528029</td>\n",
" <td>0.295883</td>\n",
" <td>0.564818</td>\n",
" <td>0.702496</td>\n",
" <td>0.453839</td>\n",
" <td>0.728701</td>\n",
" <td>0.560292</td>\n",
" <td>0.724701</td>\n",
" <td>0.638861</td>\n",
" <td>0.482526</td>\n",
" <td>0.520847</td>\n",
" <td>0.694234</td>\n",
" <td>0.584175</td>\n",
" <td>0.511241</td>\n",
" <td>0.582088</td>\n",
" <td>0.625562</td>\n",
" <td>0.662219</td>\n",
" <td>0.702730</td>\n",
" <td>0.609810</td>\n",
" <td>0.385620</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>std</th>\n",
" <td>4.339811</td>\n",
" <td>5.090215</td>\n",
" <td>6.061582</td>\n",
" <td>7.180918</td>\n",
" <td>5.809314</td>\n",
" <td>4.759874</td>\n",
" <td>6.386027</td>\n",
" <td>4.928072</td>\n",
" <td>5.518477</td>\n",
" <td>7.022552</td>\n",
" <td>5.991354</td>\n",
" <td>7.294629</td>\n",
" <td>6.114140</td>\n",
" <td>6.211516</td>\n",
" <td>6.689082</td>\n",
" <td>6.292859</td>\n",
" <td>7.452882</td>\n",
" <td>10.193399</td>\n",
" <td>5.348388</td>\n",
" <td>3.991419</td>\n",
" <td>4.629125</td>\n",
" <td>6.526231</td>\n",
" <td>6.738237</td>\n",
" <td>5.054992</td>\n",
" <td>5.739414</td>\n",
" <td>5.605280</td>\n",
" <td>5.349748</td>\n",
" <td>6.104997</td>\n",
" <td>5.411795</td>\n",
" <td>5.821199</td>\n",
" <td>4.339528</td>\n",
" <td>5.090626</td>\n",
" <td>6.06222</td>\n",
" <td>7.18257</td>\n",
" <td>5.803697</td>\n",
" <td>4.760591</td>\n",
" <td>6.385915</td>\n",
" <td>4.927392</td>\n",
" <td>5.519025</td>\n",
" <td>7.026588</td>\n",
" <td>5.992697</td>\n",
" <td>7.295367</td>\n",
" <td>6.115352</td>\n",
" <td>6.210339</td>\n",
" <td>6.688977</td>\n",
" <td>6.289385</td>\n",
" <td>7.465115</td>\n",
" <td>10.195930</td>\n",
" <td>5.350350</td>\n",
" <td>3.991165</td>\n",
" <td>4.628520</td>\n",
" <td>6.527984</td>\n",
" <td>6.738979</td>\n",
" <td>5.055314</td>\n",
" <td>5.739306</td>\n",
" <td>5.605317</td>\n",
" <td>5.349341</td>\n",
" <td>6.104515</td>\n",
" <td>5.411766</td>\n",
" <td>5.815446</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>min</th>\n",
" <td>-18.150000</td>\n",
" <td>-20.190000</td>\n",
" <td>-25.320000</td>\n",
" <td>-33.400000</td>\n",
" <td>-26.560000</td>\n",
" <td>-22.240000</td>\n",
" <td>-31.500000</td>\n",
" <td>-21.060000</td>\n",
" <td>-28.600000</td>\n",
" <td>-33.110000</td>\n",
" <td>-28.740000</td>\n",
" <td>-32.990000</td>\n",
" <td>-31.630000</td>\n",
" <td>-32.800000</td>\n",
" <td>-36.490000</td>\n",
" <td>-31.100000</td>\n",
" <td>-34.550000</td>\n",
" <td>-38.090000</td>\n",
" <td>-18.960000</td>\n",
" <td>-12.940000</td>\n",
" <td>-16.440000</td>\n",
" <td>-28.670000</td>\n",
" <td>-32.070000</td>\n",
" <td>-27.740000</td>\n",
" <td>-28.500000</td>\n",
" <td>-29.250000</td>\n",
" <td>-29.740000</td>\n",
" <td>-31.890000</td>\n",
" <td>-22.530000</td>\n",
" <td>-28.090000</td>\n",
" <td>-18.150000</td>\n",
" <td>-20.190000</td>\n",
" <td>-25.32000</td>\n",
" <td>-33.40000</td>\n",
" <td>-26.560000</td>\n",
" <td>-22.240000</td>\n",
" <td>-31.500000</td>\n",
" <td>-21.060000</td>\n",
" <td>-28.600000</td>\n",
" <td>-33.110000</td>\n",
" <td>-28.740000</td>\n",
" <td>-32.990000</td>\n",
" <td>-31.630000</td>\n",
" <td>-32.800000</td>\n",
" <td>-36.490000</td>\n",
" <td>-31.100000</td>\n",
" <td>-34.550000</td>\n",
" <td>-38.090000</td>\n",
" <td>-18.960000</td>\n",
" <td>-12.940000</td>\n",
" <td>-16.440000</td>\n",
" <td>-28.670000</td>\n",
" <td>-32.070000</td>\n",
" <td>-27.740000</td>\n",
" <td>-28.500000</td>\n",
" <td>-29.250000</td>\n",
" <td>-29.740000</td>\n",
" <td>-31.890000</td>\n",
" <td>-22.530000</td>\n",
" <td>-28.090000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>25%</th>\n",
" <td>-1.640000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.100000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.780000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.490000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.690000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.110000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.810000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.240000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.800000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.200000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.880000</td>\n",
" <td>-4.120000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.050000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.990000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.350000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.220000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.980000</td>\n",
" <td>-5.050000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.660000</td>\n",
" <td>-1.860000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.110000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.090000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.290000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.430000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.780000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.570000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.430000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.940000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.420000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.010000</td>\n",
" <td>-1.640000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.100000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.74000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.49000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.690000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.110000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.810000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.240000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.800000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.200000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.880000</td>\n",
" <td>-4.120000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.050000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.990000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.350000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.200000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.980000</td>\n",
" <td>-5.050000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.670000</td>\n",
" <td>-1.860000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.110000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.090000</td>\n",
" <td>-3.290000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.430000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.780000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.570000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.430000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.940000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.420000</td>\n",
" <td>-2.990000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>50%</th>\n",
" <td>0.740000</td>\n",
" <td>0.710000</td>\n",
" <td>1.280000</td>\n",
" <td>0.890000</td>\n",
" <td>0.510000</td>\n",
" <td>0.750000</td>\n",
" <td>0.690000</td>\n",
" <td>0.750000</td>\n",
" <td>0.670000</td>\n",
" <td>0.630000</td>\n",
" <td>0.610000</td>\n",
" <td>0.220000</td>\n",
" <td>0.860000</td>\n",
" <td>0.550000</td>\n",
" <td>0.260000</td>\n",
" <td>0.930000</td>\n",
" <td>0.600000</td>\n",
" <td>0.400000</td>\n",
" <td>0.650000</td>\n",
" <td>0.620000</td>\n",
" <td>0.610000</td>\n",
" <td>0.960000</td>\n",
" <td>0.560000</td>\n",
" <td>0.690000</td>\n",
" <td>0.860000</td>\n",
" <td>0.900000</td>\n",
" <td>0.470000</td>\n",
" <td>1.040000</td>\n",
" <td>0.820000</td>\n",
" <td>0.470000</td>\n",
" <td>0.740000</td>\n",
" <td>0.710000</td>\n",
" <td>1.29000</td>\n",
" <td>0.89000</td>\n",
" <td>0.510000</td>\n",
" <td>0.780000</td>\n",
" <td>0.680000</td>\n",
" <td>0.760000</td>\n",
" <td>0.670000</td>\n",
" <td>0.630000</td>\n",
" <td>0.610000</td>\n",
" <td>0.220000</td>\n",
" <td>0.860000</td>\n",
" <td>0.550000</td>\n",
" <td>0.260000</td>\n",
" <td>0.950000</td>\n",
" <td>0.600000</td>\n",
" <td>0.380000</td>\n",
" <td>0.630000</td>\n",
" <td>0.620000</td>\n",
" <td>0.610000</td>\n",
" <td>0.970000</td>\n",
" <td>0.560000</td>\n",
" <td>0.690000</td>\n",
" <td>0.860000</td>\n",
" <td>0.940000</td>\n",
" <td>0.470000</td>\n",
" <td>1.030000</td>\n",
" <td>0.820000</td>\n",
" <td>0.470000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>75%</th>\n",
" <td>3.120000</td>\n",
" <td>3.660000</td>\n",
" <td>4.640000</td>\n",
" <td>5.310000</td>\n",
" <td>3.720000</td>\n",
" <td>3.550000</td>\n",
" <td>4.310000</td>\n",
" <td>3.560000</td>\n",
" <td>3.760000</td>\n",
" <td>4.490000</td>\n",
" <td>4.080000</td>\n",
" <td>4.470000</td>\n",
" <td>4.230000</td>\n",
" <td>4.640000</td>\n",
" <td>4.230000</td>\n",
" <td>4.660000</td>\n",
" <td>5.300000</td>\n",
" <td>6.090000</td>\n",
" <td>3.930000</td>\n",
" <td>2.930000</td>\n",
" <td>3.360000</td>\n",
" <td>4.260000</td>\n",
" <td>4.590000</td>\n",
" <td>3.460000</td>\n",
" <td>4.060000</td>\n",
" <td>3.880000</td>\n",
" <td>4.000000</td>\n",
" <td>4.330000</td>\n",
" <td>4.000000</td>\n",
" <td>4.200000</td>\n",
" <td>3.120000</td>\n",
" <td>3.660000</td>\n",
" <td>4.66000</td>\n",
" <td>5.31000</td>\n",
" <td>3.680000</td>\n",
" <td>3.550000</td>\n",
" <td>4.310000</td>\n",
" <td>3.560000</td>\n",
" <td>3.760000</td>\n",
" <td>4.510000</td>\n",
" <td>4.080000</td>\n",
" <td>4.470000</td>\n",
" <td>4.240000</td>\n",
" <td>4.550000</td>\n",
" <td>4.230000</td>\n",
" <td>4.660000</td>\n",
" <td>5.310000</td>\n",
" <td>6.090000</td>\n",
" <td>3.930000</td>\n",
" <td>2.930000</td>\n",
" <td>3.360000</td>\n",
" <td>4.290000</td>\n",
" <td>4.590000</td>\n",
" <td>3.460000</td>\n",
" <td>4.060000</td>\n",
" <td>3.880000</td>\n",
" <td>4.000000</td>\n",
" <td>4.330000</td>\n",
" <td>4.000000</td>\n",
" <td>4.200000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>max</th>\n",
" <td>19.890000</td>\n",
" <td>25.510000</td>\n",
" <td>32.380000</td>\n",
" <td>34.520000</td>\n",
" <td>33.130000</td>\n",
" <td>18.220000</td>\n",
" <td>31.790000</td>\n",
" <td>29.010000</td>\n",
" <td>21.680000</td>\n",
" <td>59.030000</td>\n",
" <td>25.020000</td>\n",
" <td>30.300000</td>\n",
" <td>22.910000</td>\n",
" <td>23.210000</td>\n",
" <td>49.560000</td>\n",
" <td>23.390000</td>\n",
" <td>35.150000</td>\n",
" <td>45.550000</td>\n",
" <td>23.700000</td>\n",
" <td>18.260000</td>\n",
" <td>21.220000</td>\n",
" <td>23.380000</td>\n",
" <td>24.660000</td>\n",
" <td>21.000000</td>\n",
" <td>18.500000</td>\n",
" <td>17.530000</td>\n",
" <td>26.490000</td>\n",
" <td>27.380000</td>\n",
" <td>20.590000</td>\n",
" <td>19.960000</td>\n",
" <td>19.890000</td>\n",
" <td>25.510000</td>\n",
" <td>32.38000</td>\n",
" <td>34.52000</td>\n",
" <td>33.130000</td>\n",
" <td>18.220000</td>\n",
" <td>31.790000</td>\n",
" <td>29.010000</td>\n",
" <td>21.680000</td>\n",
" <td>59.030000</td>\n",
" <td>25.020000</td>\n",
" <td>30.300000</td>\n",
" <td>22.910000</td>\n",
" <td>23.210000</td>\n",
" <td>49.560000</td>\n",
" <td>23.390000</td>\n",
" <td>35.150000</td>\n",
" <td>45.550000</td>\n",
" <td>23.700000</td>\n",
" <td>18.260000</td>\n",
" <td>21.220000</td>\n",
" <td>23.380000</td>\n",
" <td>24.660000</td>\n",
" <td>21.000000</td>\n",
" <td>18.500000</td>\n",
" <td>17.530000</td>\n",
" <td>26.490000</td>\n",
" <td>27.380000</td>\n",
" <td>20.590000</td>\n",
" <td>19.960000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>\n",
" <button class=\"colab-df-convert\" onclick=\"convertToInteractive('df-64a4700a-1e83-4129-ac5c-5f9ca7bc05dc')\"\n",
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" const docLinkHtml = 'Like what you see? Visit the ' +\n",
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" + ' to learn more about interactive tables.';\n",
" element.innerHTML = '';\n",
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" element.appendChild(docLink);\n",
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" "
],
"text/plain": [
" Food Beer Smoke ... Meals.lead Fin.lead Other.lead\n",
"count 685.000000 685.000000 685.000000 ... 685.000000 685.000000 685.000000\n",
"mean 0.690715 0.710613 0.982321 ... 0.702730 0.609810 0.385620\n",
"std 4.339811 5.090215 6.061582 ... 6.104515 5.411766 5.815446\n",
"min -18.150000 -20.190000 -25.320000 ... -31.890000 -22.530000 -28.090000\n",
"25% -1.640000 -2.100000 -2.780000 ... -2.940000 -2.420000 -2.990000\n",
"50% 0.740000 0.710000 1.280000 ... 1.030000 0.820000 0.470000\n",
"75% 3.120000 3.660000 4.640000 ... 4.330000 4.000000 4.200000\n",
"max 19.890000 25.510000 32.380000 ... 27.380000 20.590000 19.960000\n",
"\n",
"[8 rows x 60 columns]"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 6
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "Im6K_dwCfkYA",
"outputId": "9f575238-4c1b-41fd-bf67-2783754b70dd",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 990
}
},
"source": [
"# annualized returns don't match Table 1, oddly\n",
"# geometric mean, annualized\n",
"pd.DataFrame((np.prod(data/100 + 1)**(12.0/len(data))-1)[:30], columns=['Mean Ann. Return'])"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/html": [
"\n",
" <div id=\"df-090516f4-8f0c-4cc0-abab-6366526592cd\">\n",
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"\n",
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"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Mean Ann. Return</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Food</th>\n",
" <td>0.074020</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Beer</th>\n",
" <td>0.072005</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Smoke</th>\n",
" <td>0.100147</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Games</th>\n",
" <td>0.054031</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Books</th>\n",
" <td>0.043953</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Hshld</th>\n",
" <td>0.054098</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Clths</th>\n",
" <td>0.057170</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Hlth</th>\n",
" <td>0.065463</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Chems</th>\n",
" <td>0.044917</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Txtls</th>\n",
" <td>0.051888</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Cnstr</th>\n",
" <td>0.041836</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Steel</th>\n",
" <td>0.002802</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>FabPr</th>\n",
" <td>0.045615</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>ElcEq</th>\n",
" <td>0.062927</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Autos</th>\n",
" <td>0.027963</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Carry</th>\n",
" <td>0.063991</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Mines</th>\n",
" <td>0.032527</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Coal</th>\n",
" <td>0.026075</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Oil</th>\n",
" <td>0.062748</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Util</th>\n",
" <td>0.049564</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Telcm</th>\n",
" <td>0.050868</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Servs</th>\n",
" <td>0.057776</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>BusEq</th>\n",
" <td>0.042774</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Paper</th>\n",
" <td>0.046776</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Trans</th>\n",
" <td>0.051138</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Whlsl</th>\n",
" <td>0.057056</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Rtail</th>\n",
" <td>0.064258</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Meals</th>\n",
" <td>0.063630</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Fin</th>\n",
" <td>0.056748</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Other</th>\n",
" <td>0.024894</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>\n",
" <button class=\"colab-df-convert\" onclick=\"convertToInteractive('df-090516f4-8f0c-4cc0-abab-6366526592cd')\"\n",
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" style=\"display:none;\">\n",
" \n",
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" <path d=\"M18.56 5.44l.94 2.06.94-2.06 2.06-.94-2.06-.94-.94-2.06-.94 2.06-2.06.94zm-11 1L8.5 8.5l.94-2.06 2.06-.94-2.06-.94L8.5 2.5l-.94 2.06-2.06.94zm10 10l.94 2.06.94-2.06 2.06-.94-2.06-.94-.94-2.06-.94 2.06-2.06.94z\"/><path d=\"M17.41 7.96l-1.37-1.37c-.4-.4-.92-.59-1.43-.59-.52 0-1.04.2-1.43.59L10.3 9.45l-7.72 7.72c-.78.78-.78 2.05 0 2.83L4 21.41c.39.39.9.59 1.41.59.51 0 1.02-.2 1.41-.59l7.78-7.78 2.81-2.81c.8-.78.8-2.07 0-2.86zM5.41 20L4 18.59l7.72-7.72 1.47 1.35L5.41 20z\"/>\n",
" </svg>\n",
" </button>\n",
" \n",
" <style>\n",
" .colab-df-container {\n",
" display:flex;\n",
" flex-wrap:wrap;\n",
" gap: 12px;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
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" width: 32px;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .colab-df-convert:hover {\n",
" background-color: #E2EBFA;\n",
" box-shadow: 0px 1px 2px rgba(60, 64, 67, 0.3), 0px 1px 3px 1px rgba(60, 64, 67, 0.15);\n",
" fill: #174EA6;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" [theme=dark] .colab-df-convert {\n",
" background-color: #3B4455;\n",
" fill: #D2E3FC;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" [theme=dark] .colab-df-convert:hover {\n",
" background-color: #434B5C;\n",
" box-shadow: 0px 1px 3px 1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.15);\n",
" filter: drop-shadow(0px 1px 2px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3));\n",
" fill: #FFFFFF;\n",
" }\n",
" </style>\n",
"\n",
" <script>\n",
" const buttonEl =\n",
" document.querySelector('#df-090516f4-8f0c-4cc0-abab-6366526592cd button.colab-df-convert');\n",
" buttonEl.style.display =\n",
" google.colab.kernel.accessAllowed ? 'block' : 'none';\n",
"\n",
" async function convertToInteractive(key) {\n",
" const element = document.querySelector('#df-090516f4-8f0c-4cc0-abab-6366526592cd');\n",
" const dataTable =\n",
" await google.colab.kernel.invokeFunction('convertToInteractive',\n",
" [key], {});\n",
" if (!dataTable) return;\n",
"\n",
" const docLinkHtml = 'Like what you see? Visit the ' +\n",
" '<a target=\"_blank\" href=https://colab.research.google.com/notebooks/data_table.ipynb>data table notebook</a>'\n",
" + ' to learn more about interactive tables.';\n",
" element.innerHTML = '';\n",
" dataTable['output_type'] = 'display_data';\n",
" await google.colab.output.renderOutput(dataTable, element);\n",
" const docLink = document.createElement('div');\n",
" docLink.innerHTML = docLinkHtml;\n",
" element.appendChild(docLink);\n",
" }\n",
" </script>\n",
" </div>\n",
" </div>\n",
" "
],
"text/plain": [
" Mean Ann. Return\n",
"Food 0.074020\n",
"Beer 0.072005\n",
"Smoke 0.100147\n",
"Games 0.054031\n",
"Books 0.043953\n",
"Hshld 0.054098\n",
"Clths 0.057170\n",
"Hlth 0.065463\n",
"Chems 0.044917\n",
"Txtls 0.051888\n",
"Cnstr 0.041836\n",
"Steel 0.002802\n",
"FabPr 0.045615\n",
"ElcEq 0.062927\n",
"Autos 0.027963\n",
"Carry 0.063991\n",
"Mines 0.032527\n",
"Coal 0.026075\n",
"Oil 0.062748\n",
"Util 0.049564\n",
"Telcm 0.050868\n",
"Servs 0.057776\n",
"BusEq 0.042774\n",
"Paper 0.046776\n",
"Trans 0.051138\n",
"Whlsl 0.057056\n",
"Rtail 0.064258\n",
"Meals 0.063630\n",
"Fin 0.056748\n",
"Other 0.024894"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 7
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "J-8ZJm63fkYE",
"outputId": "d2b1f898-690c-407a-bfb4-e1861936eef4",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 990
}
},
"source": [
"# try this way, arithmetic mean then annualize (not very correct)\n",
"#print(pd.DataFrame(((desc.loc['mean']/100+1)**12-1)[:30]))\n",
"#nope\n",
"\n",
"# same\n",
"pd.DataFrame(((1 + np.mean(data, axis=0)/100)**12 -1)[:30], columns=['Mean Ann. Return'])"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/html": [
"\n",
" <div id=\"df-b962da6a-4658-4cdc-b17a-85b5356e0fcc\">\n",
" <div class=\"colab-df-container\">\n",
" <div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
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"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Mean Ann. Return</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Food</th>\n",
" <td>0.086108</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Beer</th>\n",
" <td>0.088687</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Smoke</th>\n",
" <td>0.124460</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Games</th>\n",
" <td>0.087532</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Books</th>\n",
" <td>0.065268</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Hshld</th>\n",
" <td>0.068568</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Clths</th>\n",
" <td>0.083360</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Hlth</th>\n",
" <td>0.080966</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Chems</th>\n",
" <td>0.064188</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Txtls</th>\n",
" <td>0.083096</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Cnstr</th>\n",
" <td>0.064656</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Steel</th>\n",
" <td>0.035833</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>FabPr</th>\n",
" <td>0.069639</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>ElcEq</th>\n",
" <td>0.087857</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Autos</th>\n",
" <td>0.055859</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Carry</th>\n",
" <td>0.089740</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Mines</th>\n",
" <td>0.067862</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Coal</th>\n",
" <td>0.091926</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Oil</th>\n",
" <td>0.080976</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Util</th>\n",
" <td>0.059601</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Telcm</th>\n",
" <td>0.064437</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Servs</th>\n",
" <td>0.085164</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>BusEq</th>\n",
" <td>0.071925</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Paper</th>\n",
" <td>0.062952</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Trans</th>\n",
" <td>0.072192</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Whlsl</th>\n",
" <td>0.077332</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Rtail</th>\n",
" <td>0.082704</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Meals</th>\n",
" <td>0.088043</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Fin</th>\n",
" <td>0.075605</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Other</th>\n",
" <td>0.046240</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>\n",
" <button class=\"colab-df-convert\" onclick=\"convertToInteractive('df-b962da6a-4658-4cdc-b17a-85b5356e0fcc')\"\n",
" title=\"Convert this dataframe to an interactive table.\"\n",
" style=\"display:none;\">\n",
" \n",
" <svg xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" height=\"24px\"viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\"\n",
" width=\"24px\">\n",
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" <path d=\"M18.56 5.44l.94 2.06.94-2.06 2.06-.94-2.06-.94-.94-2.06-.94 2.06-2.06.94zm-11 1L8.5 8.5l.94-2.06 2.06-.94-2.06-.94L8.5 2.5l-.94 2.06-2.06.94zm10 10l.94 2.06.94-2.06 2.06-.94-2.06-.94-.94-2.06-.94 2.06-2.06.94z\"/><path d=\"M17.41 7.96l-1.37-1.37c-.4-.4-.92-.59-1.43-.59-.52 0-1.04.2-1.43.59L10.3 9.45l-7.72 7.72c-.78.78-.78 2.05 0 2.83L4 21.41c.39.39.9.59 1.41.59.51 0 1.02-.2 1.41-.59l7.78-7.78 2.81-2.81c.8-.78.8-2.07 0-2.86zM5.41 20L4 18.59l7.72-7.72 1.47 1.35L5.41 20z\"/>\n",
" </svg>\n",
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" \n",
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" box-shadow: 0px 1px 2px rgba(60, 64, 67, 0.3), 0px 1px 3px 1px rgba(60, 64, 67, 0.15);\n",
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"\n",
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" filter: drop-shadow(0px 1px 2px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3));\n",
" fill: #FFFFFF;\n",
" }\n",
" </style>\n",
"\n",
" <script>\n",
" const buttonEl =\n",
" document.querySelector('#df-b962da6a-4658-4cdc-b17a-85b5356e0fcc button.colab-df-convert');\n",
" buttonEl.style.display =\n",
" google.colab.kernel.accessAllowed ? 'block' : 'none';\n",
"\n",
" async function convertToInteractive(key) {\n",
" const element = document.querySelector('#df-b962da6a-4658-4cdc-b17a-85b5356e0fcc');\n",
" const dataTable =\n",
" await google.colab.kernel.invokeFunction('convertToInteractive',\n",
" [key], {});\n",
" if (!dataTable) return;\n",
"\n",
" const docLinkHtml = 'Like what you see? Visit the ' +\n",
" '<a target=\"_blank\" href=https://colab.research.google.com/notebooks/data_table.ipynb>data table notebook</a>'\n",
" + ' to learn more about interactive tables.';\n",
" element.innerHTML = '';\n",
" dataTable['output_type'] = 'display_data';\n",
" await google.colab.output.renderOutput(dataTable, element);\n",
" const docLink = document.createElement('div');\n",
" docLink.innerHTML = docLinkHtml;\n",
" element.appendChild(docLink);\n",
" }\n",
" </script>\n",
" </div>\n",
" </div>\n",
" "
],
"text/plain": [
" Mean Ann. Return\n",
"Food 0.086108\n",
"Beer 0.088687\n",
"Smoke 0.124460\n",
"Games 0.087532\n",
"Books 0.065268\n",
"Hshld 0.068568\n",
"Clths 0.083360\n",
"Hlth 0.080966\n",
"Chems 0.064188\n",
"Txtls 0.083096\n",
"Cnstr 0.064656\n",
"Steel 0.035833\n",
"FabPr 0.069639\n",
"ElcEq 0.087857\n",
"Autos 0.055859\n",
"Carry 0.089740\n",
"Mines 0.067862\n",
"Coal 0.091926\n",
"Oil 0.080976\n",
"Util 0.059601\n",
"Telcm 0.064437\n",
"Servs 0.085164\n",
"BusEq 0.071925\n",
"Paper 0.062952\n",
"Trans 0.072192\n",
"Whlsl 0.077332\n",
"Rtail 0.082704\n",
"Meals 0.088043\n",
"Fin 0.075605\n",
"Other 0.046240"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 8
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "hhElRHePfkYL",
"outputId": "d77dd273-8277-427a-c8d0-f26a13b1a1e2",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 990
}
},
"source": [
"#annualized volatility\n",
"pd.DataFrame((desc.loc['std']*np.sqrt(12))[:30].round(2))\n",
"# lines up with table 1"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/html": [
"\n",
" <div id=\"df-1cd09d16-82be-460b-8cca-3f7460e01d97\">\n",
" <div class=\"colab-df-container\">\n",
" <div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>std</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Food</th>\n",
" <td>15.03</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Beer</th>\n",
" <td>17.63</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Smoke</th>\n",
" <td>21.00</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Games</th>\n",
" <td>24.88</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Books</th>\n",
" <td>20.12</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Hshld</th>\n",
" <td>16.49</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Clths</th>\n",
" <td>22.12</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Hlth</th>\n",
" <td>17.07</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Chems</th>\n",
" <td>19.12</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Txtls</th>\n",
" <td>24.33</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Cnstr</th>\n",
" <td>20.75</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Steel</th>\n",
" <td>25.27</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>FabPr</th>\n",
" <td>21.18</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>ElcEq</th>\n",
" <td>21.52</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Autos</th>\n",
" <td>23.17</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Carry</th>\n",
" <td>21.80</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Mines</th>\n",
" <td>25.82</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Coal</th>\n",
" <td>35.31</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Oil</th>\n",
" <td>18.53</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Util</th>\n",
" <td>13.83</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Telcm</th>\n",
" <td>16.04</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Servs</th>\n",
" <td>22.61</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>BusEq</th>\n",
" <td>23.34</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Paper</th>\n",
" <td>17.51</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Trans</th>\n",
" <td>19.88</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Whlsl</th>\n",
" <td>19.42</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Rtail</th>\n",
" <td>18.53</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Meals</th>\n",
" <td>21.15</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Fin</th>\n",
" <td>18.75</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Other</th>\n",
" <td>20.17</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>\n",
" <button class=\"colab-df-convert\" onclick=\"convertToInteractive('df-1cd09d16-82be-460b-8cca-3f7460e01d97')\"\n",
" title=\"Convert this dataframe to an interactive table.\"\n",
" style=\"display:none;\">\n",
" \n",
" <svg xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" height=\"24px\"viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\"\n",
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" document.querySelector('#df-1cd09d16-82be-460b-8cca-3f7460e01d97 button.colab-df-convert');\n",
" buttonEl.style.display =\n",
" google.colab.kernel.accessAllowed ? 'block' : 'none';\n",
"\n",
" async function convertToInteractive(key) {\n",
" const element = document.querySelector('#df-1cd09d16-82be-460b-8cca-3f7460e01d97');\n",
" const dataTable =\n",
" await google.colab.kernel.invokeFunction('convertToInteractive',\n",
" [key], {});\n",
" if (!dataTable) return;\n",
"\n",
" const docLinkHtml = 'Like what you see? Visit the ' +\n",
" '<a target=\"_blank\" href=https://colab.research.google.com/notebooks/data_table.ipynb>data table notebook</a>'\n",
" + ' to learn more about interactive tables.';\n",
" element.innerHTML = '';\n",
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" await google.colab.output.renderOutput(dataTable, element);\n",
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" element.appendChild(docLink);\n",
" }\n",
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],
"text/plain": [
" std\n",
"Food 15.03\n",
"Beer 17.63\n",
"Smoke 21.00\n",
"Games 24.88\n",
"Books 20.12\n",
"Hshld 16.49\n",
"Clths 22.12\n",
"Hlth 17.07\n",
"Chems 19.12\n",
"Txtls 24.33\n",
"Cnstr 20.75\n",
"Steel 25.27\n",
"FabPr 21.18\n",
"ElcEq 21.52\n",
"Autos 23.17\n",
"Carry 21.80\n",
"Mines 25.82\n",
"Coal 35.31\n",
"Oil 18.53\n",
"Util 13.83\n",
"Telcm 16.04\n",
"Servs 22.61\n",
"BusEq 23.34\n",
"Paper 17.51\n",
"Trans 19.88\n",
"Whlsl 19.42\n",
"Rtail 18.53\n",
"Meals 21.15\n",
"Fin 18.75\n",
"Other 20.17"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 9
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "yX5HPyuR5M2E",
"outputId": "9b6cdef7-269a-4c7d-a933-cb4e0c3004fd",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"npredictors"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"30"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 10
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "5vs1PCfIfkYP",
"outputId": "6e1fd1a9-61c9-4308-8cd9-eeadaad6ae52",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"# Run LASSO, then OLS on selected variables\n",
"\n",
"# skip last row to better match published r-squared\n",
"# looks like they forecast actuals 1960-2016 using 1959m12 to 2016m11\n",
"# not exact matches to Table 2 R-squared but almost within rounding error\n",
"X = data.values[:-1,:npredictors]\n",
"Y = data.values[:-1,-nresponses:] # Predict leads\n",
"nrows = X.shape[0]\n",
"X.shape"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"(684, 30)"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 11
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"scrolled": false,
"id": "EdmjvklBfkYV",
"outputId": "d8db25e5-0b72-4813-bc1f-31365ccd5b55",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"def subset_selection(X, Y, model_aic, verbose=False, responses=responses, predictors=predictors):\n",
" # For each response variable run AIC\n",
" nrows, npreds = X.shape\n",
" nows, nresps = Y.shape\n",
" coef_dict = []\n",
"\n",
" for response_index in range(nresps):\n",
" y = Y[:,response_index]\n",
" model_aic.fit(X, y)\n",
" predcols = [i for i in range(npreds) if model_aic.coef_[i] !=0]\n",
"\n",
" #y_response = model_aic.predict(X)\n",
" # print (\"In-sample LASSO R-squared: %.6f\" % r2_score(y, y_response))\n",
" if verbose and responses:\n",
" print(\"LASSO variables selected for %s: \" % responses[response_index])\n",
" print([predictors[i] for i in predcols])\n",
"\n",
" if not predcols:\n",
" if verbose and responses:\n",
" print(\"No coefs selected for \" + responses[response_index] + \", using all\")\n",
" print(\"---\")\n",
" predcols = list(range(npreds))\n",
"\n",
" # fit OLS vs. selected vars, better fit w/o LASSO penalties\n",
" # in-sample R-squared using LASSO coeffs\n",
" coef_dict.append(predcols)\n",
" if verbose and responses and predictors:\n",
" print(\"Running OLS for \" + responses[response_index] + \" against \" + str([predictors[i] for i in predcols]))\n",
" # col nums of selected responses\n",
" model_ols = LinearRegression()\n",
" model_ols.fit(X[:, predcols], y)\n",
" y_pred = model_ols.predict(X[:, predcols])\n",
" print (\"In-sample OLS R-squared: %.2f%%\" % (100 * r2_score(y, y_pred)))\n",
" print(\"---\")\n",
"\n",
" return coef_dict\n",
"\n",
"#coef_dict = subset_selection(X, Y, LassoLarsIC(criterion='aic'))\n",
"coef_dict = subset_selection(X, Y, LassoLarsIC(criterion='aic'), verbose=True, responses=responses, predictors=predictors)\n",
"print(coef_dict)\n",
"# These subsets line up closely with Table 2\n",
"# except Clths, Whlsl, we get different responses"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"LASSO variables selected for Food.lead: \n",
"['Clths', 'Coal', 'Util', 'Rtail']\n",
"Running OLS for Food.lead against ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Util', 'Rtail']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 2.24%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Beer.lead: \n",
"['Food', 'Clths', 'Coal']\n",
"Running OLS for Beer.lead against ['Food', 'Clths', 'Coal']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 2.52%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Smoke.lead: \n",
"['Txtls', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'Paper', 'Trans', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Smoke.lead against ['Txtls', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'Paper', 'Trans', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 6.55%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Games.lead: \n",
"['Books', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Games.lead against ['Books', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 5.05%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Books.lead: \n",
"['Games', 'Books', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Books.lead against ['Games', 'Books', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 6.30%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Hshld.lead: \n",
"['Clths', 'Coal', 'Rtail']\n",
"Running OLS for Hshld.lead against ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Rtail']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 2.97%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Clths.lead: \n",
"['Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Servs', 'Rtail']\n",
"Running OLS for Clths.lead against ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Servs', 'Rtail']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 4.73%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Hlth.lead: \n",
"['Books', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Util']\n",
"Running OLS for Hlth.lead against ['Books', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Util']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 2.68%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Chems.lead: \n",
"['Clths']\n",
"Running OLS for Chems.lead against ['Clths']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 0.78%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Txtls.lead: \n",
"['Clths', 'Autos', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Txtls.lead against ['Clths', 'Autos', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 7.91%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Cnstr.lead: \n",
"['Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Trans', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Cnstr.lead against ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Trans', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 5.15%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Steel.lead: \n",
"['Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Steel.lead against ['Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 1.28%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for FabPr.lead: \n",
"['Trans', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for FabPr.lead against ['Trans', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 1.57%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for ElcEq.lead: \n",
"['Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for ElcEq.lead against ['Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 0.80%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Autos.lead: \n",
"['Hshld', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Autos.lead against ['Hshld', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 6.13%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Carry.lead: \n",
"['Trans']\n",
"Running OLS for Carry.lead against ['Trans']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 2.32%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Mines.lead: \n",
"[]\n",
"No coefs selected for Mines.lead, using all\n",
"---\n",
"Running OLS for Mines.lead against ['Food', 'Beer', 'Smoke', 'Games', 'Books', 'Hshld', 'Clths', 'Hlth', 'Chems', 'Txtls', 'Cnstr', 'Steel', 'FabPr', 'ElcEq', 'Autos', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Paper', 'Trans', 'Whlsl', 'Rtail', 'Meals', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 5.62%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Coal.lead: \n",
"['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Autos', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Paper', 'Rtail']\n",
"Running OLS for Coal.lead against ['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Autos', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Paper', 'Rtail']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 2.84%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Oil.lead: \n",
"['Beer', 'Hlth', 'Carry']\n",
"Running OLS for Oil.lead against ['Beer', 'Hlth', 'Carry']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 2.52%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Util.lead: \n",
"['Food', 'Beer', 'Smoke', 'Hshld', 'Hlth', 'Cnstr', 'FabPr', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'BusEq', 'Whlsl', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
"Running OLS for Util.lead against ['Food', 'Beer', 'Smoke', 'Hshld', 'Hlth', 'Cnstr', 'FabPr', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'BusEq', 'Whlsl', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 7.86%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Telcm.lead: \n",
"['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Hshld', 'Cnstr', 'Autos', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Meals', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Telcm.lead against ['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Hshld', 'Cnstr', 'Autos', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Meals', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 5.18%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Servs.lead: \n",
"['Smoke', 'Books', 'Steel', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Servs.lead against ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Steel', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 2.87%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for BusEq.lead: \n",
"['Smoke', 'Books', 'Util']\n",
"Running OLS for BusEq.lead against ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Util']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 2.75%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Paper.lead: \n",
"['Games', 'Books', 'Clths', 'ElcEq', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Paper', 'Trans', 'Whlsl', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Paper.lead against ['Games', 'Books', 'Clths', 'ElcEq', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Paper', 'Trans', 'Whlsl', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 6.30%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Trans.lead: \n",
"['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Games', 'Books', 'Hshld', 'Clths', 'Hlth', 'Steel', 'FabPr', 'ElcEq', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'Trans', 'Whlsl', 'Rtail', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
"Running OLS for Trans.lead against ['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Games', 'Books', 'Hshld', 'Clths', 'Hlth', 'Steel', 'FabPr', 'ElcEq', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'Trans', 'Whlsl', 'Rtail', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 7.03%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Whlsl.lead: \n",
"['Food', 'Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Hlth', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
"Running OLS for Whlsl.lead against ['Food', 'Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Hlth', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 7.43%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Rtail.lead: \n",
"['Rtail']\n",
"Running OLS for Rtail.lead against ['Rtail']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 1.61%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Meals.lead: \n",
"['Smoke', 'Books', 'Clths', 'Steel', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Meals', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Meals.lead against ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Clths', 'Steel', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Meals', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 7.90%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Fin.lead: \n",
"['Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Fin.lead against ['Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 1.70%\n",
"---\n",
"LASSO variables selected for Other.lead: \n",
"['Smoke', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'Trans', 'Fin']\n",
"Running OLS for Other.lead against ['Smoke', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'Trans', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample OLS R-squared: 4.86%\n",
"---\n",
"[[6, 17, 19, 26], [0, 6, 17], [9, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24, 28], [4, 6, 17, 28], [3, 4, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 26, 28], [6, 17, 26], [6, 17, 18, 21, 26], [4, 16, 17, 19], [6], [6, 14, 17, 18, 26, 28], [6, 17, 18, 19, 24, 26, 28], [28], [24, 28], [28], [5, 6, 17, 18, 19, 22, 26, 28], [24], [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29], [1, 2, 4, 14, 17, 18, 23, 26], [1, 7, 15], [0, 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 12, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 22, 25, 28, 29], [1, 2, 4, 5, 10, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 26, 27, 28], [2, 4, 11, 18, 19, 28], [2, 4, 19], [3, 4, 6, 13, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 28], [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 12, 13, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 24, 25, 26, 28, 29], [0, 1, 2, 4, 7, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 28, 29], [26], [2, 4, 6, 11, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 27, 28], [28], [2, 6, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 24, 28]]\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "OspHxwFlfkYa",
"outputId": "c59d21eb-5590-4c4f-b713-4e9595e122d4",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"# same predictors selected for all but 2 response vars\n",
"# Differences might be due to small mechanical differences in the mstatistical tools applied.\n",
"# use predictors from paper to match results\n",
"if True: # turn off/on\n",
" coef_dict_temp = {}\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Food.lead'] = ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Util', 'Rtail']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Beer.lead'] = ['Food', 'Clths', 'Coal']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Smoke.lead'] = ['Txtls', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'Paper', 'Trans', 'Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Games.lead'] = ['Books', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Books.lead'] = ['Games', 'Books', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Hshld.lead'] = ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Rtail']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Clths.lead'] = ['Books', 'Clths', 'Chems', 'Steel', 'ElcEq', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util','Telcm', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail']\n",
" # Running OLS for Clths against ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Servs', 'Rtail']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Hlth.lead'] = ['Books', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Util']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Chems.lead'] = ['Clths']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Txtls.lead'] = ['Clths', 'Autos', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Cnstr.lead'] = ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Trans', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Steel.lead'] = ['Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['FabPr.lead'] = ['Trans', 'Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['ElcEq.lead'] = ['Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Autos.lead'] = ['Hshld', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Carry.lead'] = ['Trans']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Mines.lead'] = []\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Coal.lead'] = ['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Autos', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Paper', 'Rtail']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Oil.lead'] = ['Beer', 'Hlth', 'Carry']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Util.lead'] = ['Food', 'Beer', 'Smoke', 'Hshld', 'Hlth', 'Cnstr', 'FabPr', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'BusEq', 'Whlsl', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Telcm.lead'] = ['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Hshld', 'Cnstr', 'Autos', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Meals', 'Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Servs.lead'] = ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Steel', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['BusEq.lead'] = ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Util']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Paper.lead'] = ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Trans.lead'] = ['Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Whlsl.lead'] = ['Food', 'Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Hlth', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
" # Running OLS for Whlsl against ['Food', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Rtail.lead'] = ['Rtail']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Meals.lead'] = ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Clths', 'Steel', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Meals', 'Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Fin.lead'] = ['Fin']\n",
" coef_dict_temp['Other.lead'] = ['Clths', 'Fin']\n",
"\n",
"coef_dict_paper = []\n",
"for response in responses:\n",
" print(response, \" -> \", coef_dict_temp[response])\n",
" coef_dict_paper.append([predictor_reverse_dict[jstr] for jstr in coef_dict_temp[response]])\n",
"print(coef_dict_paper)"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"Food.lead -> ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Util', 'Rtail']\n",
"Beer.lead -> ['Food', 'Clths', 'Coal']\n",
"Smoke.lead -> ['Txtls', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'Paper', 'Trans', 'Fin']\n",
"Games.lead -> ['Books', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Fin']\n",
"Books.lead -> ['Games', 'Books', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"Hshld.lead -> ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Rtail']\n",
"Clths.lead -> ['Books', 'Clths', 'Chems', 'Steel', 'ElcEq', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail']\n",
"Hlth.lead -> ['Books', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Util']\n",
"Chems.lead -> ['Clths']\n",
"Txtls.lead -> ['Clths', 'Autos', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"Cnstr.lead -> ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Trans', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"Steel.lead -> ['Fin']\n",
"FabPr.lead -> ['Trans', 'Fin']\n",
"ElcEq.lead -> ['Fin']\n",
"Autos.lead -> ['Hshld', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"Carry.lead -> ['Trans']\n",
"Mines.lead -> []\n",
"Coal.lead -> ['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Autos', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Paper', 'Rtail']\n",
"Oil.lead -> ['Beer', 'Hlth', 'Carry']\n",
"Util.lead -> ['Food', 'Beer', 'Smoke', 'Hshld', 'Hlth', 'Cnstr', 'FabPr', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'BusEq', 'Whlsl', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
"Telcm.lead -> ['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Hshld', 'Cnstr', 'Autos', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Meals', 'Fin']\n",
"Servs.lead -> ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Steel', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Fin']\n",
"BusEq.lead -> ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Util']\n",
"Paper.lead -> ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"Trans.lead -> ['Fin']\n",
"Whlsl.lead -> ['Food', 'Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Hlth', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
"Rtail.lead -> ['Rtail']\n",
"Meals.lead -> ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Clths', 'Steel', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Meals', 'Fin']\n",
"Fin.lead -> ['Fin']\n",
"Other.lead -> ['Clths', 'Fin']\n",
"[[6, 17, 19, 26], [0, 6, 17], [9, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24, 28], [4, 6, 17, 28], [3, 4, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 26, 28], [6, 17, 26], [4, 6, 8, 11, 13, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 26], [4, 16, 17, 19], [6], [6, 14, 17, 18, 26, 28], [6, 17, 18, 19, 24, 26, 28], [28], [24, 28], [28], [5, 6, 17, 18, 19, 22, 26, 28], [24], [], [1, 2, 4, 14, 17, 18, 23, 26], [1, 7, 15], [0, 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 12, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 22, 25, 28, 29], [1, 2, 4, 5, 10, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 26, 27, 28], [2, 4, 11, 18, 19, 28], [2, 4, 19], [6, 17, 18, 26, 28], [28], [0, 1, 2, 4, 7, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 28, 29], [26], [2, 4, 6, 11, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 27, 28], [28], [6, 28]]\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "01Vojt0-fkYe",
"outputId": "0155562a-c6e9-4404-9b54-00feec967cdf",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"# Now just try a simple linear regression on selected features, the idea here is to obtain the same lasso results as the paper\n",
"def predict_with_subsets(X, Y, create_model, coef_dict, verbose=False):\n",
" \"\"\"evaluate subset selection, pass a model function and subsets, compute avg R-squared\"\"\"\n",
" global responses\n",
"\n",
" nrows, ncols = Y.shape\n",
" model = create_model()\n",
"\n",
" scores = []\n",
" for response_col in range(ncols):\n",
" y = Y[:,response_col]\n",
"\n",
"\n",
" if not coef_dict[response_col]:\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" print(\"No coefs selected for \" + responses[response_col])\n",
" # print(\"---\")\n",
" continue\n",
"\n",
" predcols = coef_dict[response_col]\n",
" model.fit(X[:, predcols], y)\n",
" y_pred = model.predict(X[:, predcols])\n",
" score = r2_score(y, y_pred)\n",
" scores.append(score)\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" print (\"In-sample R-squared: %.2f%% for %s against %s\" % (score*100, responses[response_col],\n",
" str([predictors[i] for i in coef_dict[response_col]])))\n",
"# print(\"---\")\n",
"\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" print(\"Mean R-squared: %.2f%%\" % (100 * np.mean(np.array(scores))))\n",
" return np.mean(np.array(scores))\n",
"\n",
"predict_with_subsets(X, Y, LinearRegression, coef_dict_paper, verbose=True)\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"In-sample R-squared: 2.24% for Food.lead against ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Util', 'Rtail']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 2.52% for Beer.lead against ['Food', 'Clths', 'Coal']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 6.55% for Smoke.lead against ['Txtls', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'Paper', 'Trans', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 5.05% for Games.lead against ['Books', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 6.30% for Books.lead against ['Games', 'Books', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 2.97% for Hshld.lead against ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Rtail']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 7.82% for Clths.lead against ['Books', 'Clths', 'Chems', 'Steel', 'ElcEq', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 2.68% for Hlth.lead against ['Books', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Util']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 0.78% for Chems.lead against ['Clths']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 7.91% for Txtls.lead against ['Clths', 'Autos', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 5.15% for Cnstr.lead against ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Trans', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 1.28% for Steel.lead against ['Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 1.57% for FabPr.lead against ['Trans', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 0.80% for ElcEq.lead against ['Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 6.13% for Autos.lead against ['Hshld', 'Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 2.32% for Carry.lead against ['Trans']\n",
"No coefs selected for Mines.lead\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 2.84% for Coal.lead against ['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Autos', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Paper', 'Rtail']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 2.52% for Oil.lead against ['Beer', 'Hlth', 'Carry']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 7.86% for Util.lead against ['Food', 'Beer', 'Smoke', 'Hshld', 'Hlth', 'Cnstr', 'FabPr', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'BusEq', 'Whlsl', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 5.18% for Telcm.lead against ['Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Hshld', 'Cnstr', 'Autos', 'Carry', 'Mines', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Rtail', 'Meals', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 2.87% for Servs.lead against ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Steel', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 2.75% for BusEq.lead against ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Util']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 3.24% for Paper.lead against ['Clths', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Rtail', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 1.32% for Trans.lead against ['Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 7.43% for Whlsl.lead against ['Food', 'Beer', 'Smoke', 'Books', 'Hlth', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Telcm', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Fin', 'Other']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 1.61% for Rtail.lead against ['Rtail']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 7.90% for Meals.lead against ['Smoke', 'Books', 'Clths', 'Steel', 'Carry', 'Coal', 'Oil', 'Util', 'Servs', 'BusEq', 'Meals', 'Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 1.70% for Fin.lead against ['Fin']\n",
"In-sample R-squared: 2.69% for Other.lead against ['Clths', 'Fin']\n",
"Mean R-squared: 3.86%\n"
]
},
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"0.03862278631691254"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 14
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "eJqE_OyzfkYj",
"outputId": "4b6e4409-8d7d-4edc-a447-50b04c0431d1",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"# use all predictors - higher in-sample R-squared (almost a universal)\n",
"coef_dict_all = []\n",
"for _ in responses:\n",
" coef_dict_all.append(range(len(predictors)))\n",
"predict_with_subsets(X, Y, LinearRegression, coef_dict_all, verbose=False)\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"0.06637486888237351"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 15
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "xlRxXibmfkYn",
"outputId": "abf8d4d9-8827-4017-ebe0-c1bb728a5c0d",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"# first iteration will train up to including 196911\n",
"# will use 196912 to predict 197001\n",
"# 1970101 will be first month of performance to use\n",
"# train on first 121 months up to 196912 (0:120), put first prediction in P[121] (122nd row)\n",
"# first month of performance will be 197002\n",
"FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS = 121\n",
"FIRST_PREDICT_MONTH = FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS # This is stupid but keeps my head straight\n",
"\n",
"print(X[FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS])\n",
"print(data.iloc[FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS][:30])"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"[ -3.34 -1.95 -7.59 -7.76 -12.05 -7.5 -5.69 -7.71 -7.37 -5.26\n",
" -9.84 -6.31 -7.15 -6.89 -9.35 -12.49 -2.34 -0.77 -12.16 -4.83\n",
" -3.16 -11.17 -9.73 -8.89 -8.17 -8.28 -6.31 -13.12 -9.78 -6.2 ]\n",
"Food -3.34\n",
"Beer -1.95\n",
"Smoke -7.59\n",
"Games -7.76\n",
"Books -12.05\n",
"Hshld -7.50\n",
"Clths -5.69\n",
"Hlth -7.71\n",
"Chems -7.37\n",
"Txtls -5.26\n",
"Cnstr -9.84\n",
"Steel -6.31\n",
"FabPr -7.15\n",
"ElcEq -6.89\n",
"Autos -9.35\n",
"Carry -12.49\n",
"Mines -2.34\n",
"Coal -0.77\n",
"Oil -12.16\n",
"Util -4.83\n",
"Telcm -3.16\n",
"Servs -11.17\n",
"BusEq -9.73\n",
"Paper -8.89\n",
"Trans -8.17\n",
"Whlsl -8.28\n",
"Rtail -6.31\n",
"Meals -13.12\n",
"Fin -9.78\n",
"Other -6.20\n",
"Name: 197001, dtype: float64\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "GnbBd49wfkYt"
},
"source": [
"class PredictWrapper():\n",
" \"\"\"Wrap an sklearn model e.g. LinearRegression to fit, predict all vars as a vector,\n",
" match the way our Keras model will do it\"\"\"\n",
"\n",
" def __init__(self, create_model, coef_dict, fit_missing=None):\n",
" self.create_model = create_model\n",
" self.coef_dict = coef_dict\n",
" self.fit_missing = fit_missing\n",
" self.models = []\n",
"\n",
" def fit(self, X_fit, Y_fit, verbose=False):\n",
"\n",
" self.nrows, self.ycols = Y_fit.shape\n",
" self.models = []\n",
" # fit model for each column\n",
" for responsecol in range(self.ycols):\n",
" if self.coef_dict[responsecol]:\n",
" # column indexes to fit against each other\n",
" predcols = self.coef_dict[responsecol]\n",
" else: # no columns selected\n",
" if not self.fit_missing:\n",
" # default: don't fit if no predictors selected\n",
" self.models.append(None)\n",
" #print(self.models[-1])\n",
" continue\n",
" elif self.fit_missing == \"mean\":\n",
" # append a numeric value to use\n",
" self.models.append(np.mean(Y_fit[:,responsecol]))\n",
" #print(self.models[-1])\n",
" continue\n",
" elif self.fit_missing == \"all\":\n",
" # predcols = all columns\n",
" predcols = range(X_fit.shape[1])\n",
"\n",
" model = self.create_model() # create 1 sklearn model for each column\n",
" model.fit(X_fit[:, predcols], Y_fit[:,responsecol])\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" print(\"fit on \" + str(X_fit[:, predcols].shape) + str(predcols))\n",
" print(model.coef_)\n",
"\n",
" self.models.append(model)\n",
"\n",
" #debug\n",
" #print(responsecol)\n",
" #print(X_fit[:, predcols])\n",
" #print(\"=====\")\n",
" #print(Y_fit[:,responsecol])\n",
" #print(\"=====\")\n",
" #print(self.model.coef_)\n",
" #print(self.model.intercept_)\n",
" #print(\"=====\")\n",
"\n",
" def predict(self, X_predict, verbose=False):\n",
"\n",
" predictions = []\n",
" nrows = X_predict.shape[0]\n",
"\n",
" for responsecol in range(self.ycols):\n",
" #print (type(self.models[responsecol]))\n",
" if type(self.models[responsecol]) == np.float64:\n",
" pred = np.array([self.models[responsecol]] * nrows).reshape(nrows,1)\n",
" predictions.append(pred)\n",
" sys.stdout.write('\\010#')\n",
" elif not self.models[responsecol]:\n",
" # don't predict\n",
" predictions.append(np.array([np.nan] * nrows ).reshape(nrows,1))\n",
" sys.stdout.write('\\010N')\n",
" else:\n",
" predcols = self.coef_dict[responsecol]\n",
" y_pred = self.models[responsecol].predict(X_predict[:,predcols])\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" print(\"predict on\" + str(X_predict[:, predcols].shape) + str(predcols))\n",
" print(y_pred)\n",
" predictions.append(y_pred.reshape(nrows,1))\n",
"\n",
" return np.hstack(predictions)\n",
"\n",
""
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"id": "CnUxMdcdfkYw"
},
"source": [
"### BacktestModel class to abstract walk-forward validation and backtesting workflow from modeling, portfolio construction, reporting"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "2yXXF1cUfkYx"
},
"source": [
"# typical pipeline\n",
"# backtestmodel = BacktestModel(X, # predictors\n",
"# Y, # responses\n",
"# create_model=LinearRegression, # create_model which returns a model (needed for 'timestep' which creates different model each timestep)\n",
"# # or model = someKerasModel, # initialized model that supports fit(X,Y), predict(X) , predicts an entire row,\n",
"# coef_dict_param=coef_dict_paper, # how to map predictors to responses (\"all\", \"timestep\", or a list of lists)\n",
"# startindex=FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS, # initial training for backtest\n",
"# fit_missing='mean', # what to do when no predictors are selected in coef_dict_param - use all predictors, use historical mean, use np.nan\n",
"# scaler = None) # scaling function like MinMaxScaler\n",
"\n",
"# backtestmodel.gen_predictions(verbose=False) # starting from startindex, step through X,Y month by month, fit up to current month, predict next month, store prediction in self.P\n",
"# backtestmodel.walkforward_xval(n_splits=5, verbose=True) # calls gen_predictions with a large step, fits and predicts one large fold at a time (useful to cross-validate quickly)\n",
"# backtestmodel.evaluate_predictions() # report metrics on prediction : MSE etc. #TODO: support custom calcs before/after/instead of default calcs\n",
"# backtestmodel.gen_returns(calc_returns, verbose=True) # takes a function that returns portfolio returns based on self.P, stores in self.R\n",
"# backtestmodel.report_returns(start_date=start_date_str, freq='M') # calc cumulative perf and report (TODO: allow it to take a reporting function to run before/after/in place of default report)\n",
"# backtestmodel.evaluate_quantiles(chart=True, verbose=True) # report quantile metrics # TODO: make this a custom calc passed into evaluate_predictions\n",
"\n",
"class BacktestModel():\n",
"\n",
" def __init__(self,\n",
" X, # predictors\n",
" Y, # responses\n",
" model=None, # model that supports fit(X,Y), predict(X) , predicts an entire row,\n",
" create_model=None, # or create_model which returns a model (needed for 'timestep' but slows down so pass model if dynamic not needed)\n",
" coef_dict_param=\"all\", # mapping of predictors to responses (\"all\", \"timestep\", or a list of lists)\n",
" startindex=FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS,\n",
" scaler=None,\n",
" fit_missing=None):\n",
"\n",
" self.Xrows, self.Xcols = X.shape\n",
" self.Yrows, self.Ycols = Y.shape\n",
"\n",
" if self.Xrows != self.Yrows:\n",
" raise(ValueError, \"Shapes differ: X %s, Y %s\" % (str(X.shape), str(Y.shape)))\n",
"\n",
" self.X = X\n",
" self.Y = Y\n",
" self.Xscale = X.copy()\n",
" self.Yscale = Y.copy()\n",
"\n",
" if scaler:\n",
" print(\"scaler: %s \" %str(scaler))\n",
" # by rows\n",
" # MinMaxScaler: each row (min->0, max->1)\n",
" # StandardScaler: each row (mean->0, SD->1)\n",
" # self.Xscale = scaler().fit_transform(self.Xscale.transpose()).transpose()\n",
" # self.Yscale = scaler().fit_transform(self.Yscale.transpose()).transpose()\n",
" # by cols\n",
" # MinMaxScaler: each col (min->0, max->1)\n",
" # StandardScaler: each col (mean->0, SD->1)\n",
" self.Xscale = scaler().fit_transform(self.Xscale)\n",
" self.Yscale = scaler().fit_transform(self.Yscale)\n",
"\n",
" self.model = model\n",
" self.create_model = create_model\n",
" self.coef_dict_param = coef_dict_param\n",
" self.startindex = startindex\n",
" self.fit_missing = fit_missing\n",
"\n",
" def fit_predict(self, ntrain, npredict=1, verbose=False):\n",
" \"\"\"for backtest, train model using Y v. X\n",
" train on first ntrain rows. if ntrain=121, fit 0:120\n",
" predict following npredict rows\n",
" if npredict=1, predict row 121\n",
" if npredict=12, predict rows 121-132\n",
" \"\"\"\n",
"\n",
" # fit first ntrain rows\n",
" X_fit = self.Xscale[:ntrain] # e.g. 0:120\n",
" Y_fit = self.Yscale[:ntrain]\n",
" # predict npredict rows\n",
" X_predict = self.Xscale[ntrain:ntrain+npredict] # 121-122\n",
" X_predict = X_predict.reshape(npredict,self.Xcols)\n",
"\n",
" # if no coef_dict select predictors into coef_dict\n",
" if self.coef_dict_param == \"timestep\":\n",
" msg = \"Performing subset selection\"\n",
" coef_dict = subset_selection(X_fit, Y_fit, LassoLarsIC(criterion='aic'))\n",
" # if coef_dict == \"all\" use all predictors for each response\n",
" elif self.coef_dict_param == 'all':\n",
" msg = \"Using all predictors\"\n",
" coef_dict = [range(self.Xcols) for _ in range(self.ycols)]\n",
" else: # should check valid dict\n",
" msg = \"Using coef_dict predictors\"\n",
" coef_dict = self.coef_dict_param\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" print(msg)\n",
"\n",
" if self.create_model:\n",
" self.model = PredictWrapper(self.create_model, coef_dict, fit_missing=self.fit_missing)\n",
"\n",
" self.model.fit(X_fit, Y_fit, verbose=verbose)\n",
" return self.model.predict(X_predict, verbose=verbose)\n",
"\n",
" # predict all months\n",
" # initial train_months = 120 -> train first model on 120 rows\n",
" # first prediction will be in P[120] (121st row)\n",
" # step = 6 -> predict following 6 rows, then step forward 6 months at a time\n",
" # initialize predictions matrix self.P\n",
"\n",
" # use either step or folds\n",
" # step, do range(self.startindex, nrows, step)\n",
" # folds, at each fold train 0:startfold, predict startfold+1:endfold\n",
" # store only out-of-sample predictions in P, calc out-of-sample MSE\n",
"\n",
" # using a step > 1 or folds is quicker, for quicker xval, or to speed up by not estimating model at each timestep\n",
"\n",
" def gen_predictions(self,\n",
" step=1,\n",
" splits=None,\n",
" verbose=False):\n",
"\n",
" self.P = np.zeros_like(self.Y)\n",
"\n",
" progress_i = 0\n",
" self.nrows, self.ycols = Y.shape\n",
"\n",
" if splits:\n",
" month_indexes = splits[:-1] # last index is nrows\n",
" else:\n",
" # create list of steps\n",
" month_indexes = list(range(self.startindex, nrows, step))\n",
" steps = [month_indexes[i+1]-month_indexes[i] for i in range(len(month_indexes)-1)]\n",
" # last step -> end\n",
" steps.append(self.nrows - month_indexes[-1])\n",
"\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" print (\"Steps: \" + str(month_indexes))\n",
"\n",
" for month_index, forecast_rows in zip(month_indexes, steps):\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" print(\"Training on first %d rows (%d:%d), putting predictions in rows %s\" % (month_index,\n",
" 0, month_index-1,\n",
" str(range(month_index,month_index+forecast_rows))))\n",
" predictions = self.fit_predict(month_index, forecast_rows, verbose=False)\n",
"\n",
" first_pred_row = month_index\n",
" for row_index in range(forecast_rows):\n",
" self.P[first_pred_row+row_index] = predictions[row_index]\n",
" sys.stdout.write('.')\n",
" progress_i += 1\n",
" if progress_i % 80 == 0:\n",
" print(\"\")\n",
" print(\"%s Still training step %d of %d\" % (time.strftime(\"%H:%M:%S\"), progress_i, len(month_indexes)))\n",
" sys.stdout.flush()\n",
" print(\"\")\n",
"\n",
"\n",
" def evaluate_predictions(self):\n",
"\n",
" # evaluate prediction (can move to separate function)\n",
" msetemp = (self.P[self.startindex:]-self.Yscale[self.startindex:])**2\n",
" #remove nans\n",
" msetemp = msetemp[~np.isnan(msetemp)]\n",
" self.mse = np.mean(msetemp)\n",
" print(\"OOS MSE across all predictions: %.4f\" % self.mse)\n",
" self.model.fit(self.Xscale, self.Yscale)\n",
" Y_pred = self.model.predict(self.Xscale)\n",
" self.in_sample_mse = np.mean((Y_pred - self.Yscale) ** 2)\n",
" print(\"In-sample MSE: %.4f\" % self.in_sample_mse)\n",
"\n",
" # force unpredicted ys to be nans, then remove nans\n",
" vartemp = self.Yscale[self.startindex:] - self.P[self.startindex:] + self.P[self.startindex:]\n",
" vartemp = vartemp[~np.isnan(vartemp)]\n",
" y_variance = np.var(vartemp[self.startindex:])\n",
" print(\"Variance: %.4f\" % (y_variance))\n",
" print(\"R-squared: %.4f\" % (1- self.mse/y_variance))\n",
"\n",
" return(self.mse)\n",
"\n",
" def evaluate_quantiles(self, chart=False, verbose=False):\n",
"\n",
" self.P_quantiles = np.zeros_like(self.P)\n",
" self.Y_quantiles = np.zeros_like(self.Y)\n",
" self.kendalltaus = []\n",
" self.ktpvals = []\n",
" # compute score for predicted quantiles vs. actual (expected) quantiles\n",
" N_QUANTILES=5\n",
" for row in range(self.startindex, self.P_quantiles.shape[0]):\n",
" #print(self.P[row])\n",
" self.P_quantiles[row] = pd.qcut(self.P[row], N_QUANTILES, range(N_QUANTILES))\n",
" self.Y_quantiles[row] = pd.qcut(self.Y[row], N_QUANTILES, range(N_QUANTILES))\n",
" kt, p_val = kendalltau(self.P[row], self.Y[row])\n",
" self.kendalltaus.append(kt)\n",
" self.ktpvals.append(p_val)\n",
"\n",
" self.kendalltau = np.mean(self.kendalltaus)\n",
" self.kendalltau_pvalue = np.mean(self.ktpvals)\n",
" print(\"Avg rank correlation (Kendall's tau): %.4f (Expected: 0)\" % (self.kendalltau))\n",
" pred_quantiles = self.P_quantiles[self.startindex:]\n",
" true_quantiles = self.Y_quantiles[self.startindex:]\n",
"\n",
" nrows, ncols = pred_quantiles.shape\n",
"\n",
" pred_quantiles = pred_quantiles.reshape(nrows*ncols)\n",
" true_quantiles = true_quantiles.reshape(nrows*ncols)\n",
" self.quintile_accuracy = accuracy_score(pred_quantiles, true_quantiles)\n",
" print(\"5-quintile accuracy: %.4f (Expected: 0.2)\" % (self.quintile_accuracy))\n",
"\n",
" pred_direction = np.zeros(nrows*ncols)\n",
" true_direction = np.zeros(nrows*ncols)\n",
" for i in range(nrows*ncols):\n",
" if pred_quantiles[i] == 4:\n",
" pred_direction[i] = 1\n",
" elif pred_quantiles[i] == 0:\n",
" pred_direction[i] = -1\n",
" if true_quantiles[i] == 4:\n",
" true_direction[i] = 1\n",
" elif true_quantiles[i] == 0:\n",
" true_direction[i] = -1\n",
" self.directional_accuracy = accuracy_score(pred_direction, true_direction)\n",
" print(\"Long/short/flat accuracy: %.4f (Expected: 0.44)\" % (self.directional_accuracy))\n",
"\n",
" nrows = nrows * ncols\n",
"\n",
" conf_mat_expected = np.array([[0.64, 0.16],[0.16, 0.04]])*nrows\n",
"\n",
" myscores = []\n",
" for q in range(5):\n",
" temp_pred = pred_quantiles == q\n",
" temp_actual = true_quantiles == q\n",
" conf_mat5 = confusion_matrix(temp_pred, temp_actual)\n",
" diff_mat = conf_mat5 - conf_mat_expected\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" print(\"Confusion matrix for quantile %d\" % q)\n",
" print(conf_mat5)\n",
" cstmp, cspvtmp = chisquare(conf_mat5.reshape(4), conf_mat_expected.reshape(4))\n",
" print(\"Chi-square: %.4f (p-value: %.8f)\" % (cstmp, cspvtmp))\n",
"\n",
" # probably no valid statistical interpretation but\n",
" # average of improvement in true positive % and true negative %\n",
" myscore = diff_mat[1][1]\n",
" myscores.append(myscore)\n",
"\n",
" # sum of true positive for top and bottom quintiles\n",
" self.excess_tp = myscores[0] + myscores[4]\n",
" print(\"Excess true positive in quintiles 1 + 5: %f\" % (self.excess_tp))\n",
"\n",
" conf_mat = confusion_matrix(pred_quantiles, true_quantiles)\n",
" if chart:\n",
" fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10,10))\n",
" sns.heatmap(conf_mat, annot=True, fmt='d')\n",
" plt.ylabel('Actual Quintile')\n",
" plt.xlabel('Predicted Quintile')\n",
" plt.show()\n",
"\n",
" return None\n",
"\n",
" def walkforward_xval (self, n_splits=5, verbose=False):\n",
" \"\"\"quick and dirty genreturns, with a step\"\"\"\n",
" # generate k-folds\n",
" kf = KFold(n_splits=n_splits)\n",
" kf.get_n_splits(X)\n",
" last_indexes = []\n",
" for train_index, test_index in kf.split(X):\n",
" # use test_index as last index to train\n",
" last_index = test_index[-1] + 1\n",
" last_indexes.append(last_index)\n",
" print(\"%s Generate splits %s\" % (time.strftime(\"%H:%M:%S\"), str([i for i in last_indexes])))\n",
" #override startindex\n",
" self.startindex = last_indexes[0]\n",
" return self.gen_predictions(splits=last_indexes, verbose=verbose)\n",
"\n",
" def gen_returns(self, port_returns_func, verbose=False):\n",
"\n",
" self.R = np.zeros(self.P.shape[0])\n",
" first_pred_month=self.startindex\n",
"\n",
" indcount = [0] * self.ycols\n",
" longcount = [0] * self.ycols\n",
" shortcount = [0] * self.ycols\n",
"\n",
" for month_index in range(first_pred_month, nrows-1):\n",
" return_month = month_index + 1\n",
" port_return, long_indexes, short_indexes = port_returns_func(self.P[month_index],\n",
" self.X[return_month])\n",
" self.R[return_month] = port_return\n",
"\n",
" for i in long_indexes:\n",
" indcount[i] += 1\n",
" longcount[i] += 1\n",
" for i in short_indexes:\n",
" indcount[i] += 1\n",
" shortcount[i] += 1\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" for i in range(len(responses)):\n",
" print(\"%s: long %d times, short %d times, total %d times\" % (predictors[i],\n",
" longcount[i],\n",
" shortcount[i],\n",
" indcount[i]))\n",
" return self.R\n",
"\n",
" def report_returns(self, start_date='01/01/1970', freq='M'):\n",
"\n",
" first_pred_month=self.startindex\n",
" self.results = self.R[first_pred_month:]\n",
" nmonths = self.results.shape[0]\n",
" nyears = nmonths/12.0\n",
" index = pd.date_range(start_date,periods=nmonths, freq=freq)\n",
" perfdata = pd.DataFrame(self.results,index=index,columns=['Returns'])\n",
" perfdata['Equity'] = 100 * np.cumprod(1 + self.results / 100)\n",
" self.cumulative_return = perfdata['Equity']\n",
" self.mean_monthly_return_annualized = np.mean(1 + self.results/100) ** 12 - 1\n",
" self.mean_return = (self.cumulative_return[-1]/100) ** (1.0/nyears) - 1\n",
" self.annualized_vol = np.std(self.results/100) * np.sqrt(12.0)\n",
" self.sharpe = self.mean_monthly_return_annualized/self.annualized_vol\n",
" print(\"Mean return: %.3f%%\" % (self.mean_return * 100 ))\n",
" #print(\"Mean monthly annualized return: %.3f%%\" % (self.mean_monthly_return_annualized * 100 ))\n",
" #print(\"Monthly annualized volatility: %.3f%%\" % (self.annualized_vol * 100))\n",
" print(\"Monthly Sharpe ratio: %.3f\" % (self.sharpe))\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "tdXQ-om1fkY0"
},
"source": [
"# return calculation passed to gen_returns\n",
"# which 6 (40/5) portfolios to go long on and which to go short on.\n",
"\n",
"NUMSTOCKS = 6 # top quintile (and bottom)\n",
"\n",
"def calc_returns(prediction_row, return_row, numstocks=NUMSTOCKS, verbose=False):\n",
"\n",
" # ensure nan sorts to top for shorts\n",
" short_sort_array = [999999 if np.isnan(x) else x for x in prediction_row]\n",
" # pick bottom numstocks\n",
" select_array = np.argsort(short_sort_array)\n",
" short_indexes = select_array[:numstocks]\n",
"\n",
" # ensure nan sorts to bottom for longs\n",
" long_sort_array = [-999999 if np.isnan(x) else x for x in prediction_row]\n",
" # pick top numstocks\n",
" select_array = np.argsort(long_sort_array)\n",
" long_indexes = select_array[-numstocks:]\n",
"\n",
" if verbose:\n",
" print(\"Longs: %s\" %(str([(i,prediction_row[i]) for i in long_indexes])))\n",
" print(\"Shorts: %s\" %(str([(i,prediction_row[i]) for i in short_indexes])))\n",
"\n",
" # compute equal weighted long/short return\n",
" return np.mean(return_row[long_indexes])/2 - np.mean(return_row[short_indexes])/2, long_indexes, short_indexes\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "Co4uzjyNfkY3",
"outputId": "4ee485ff-4a50-4530-cb07-2863bc8f6bca",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 35
}
},
"source": [
"start_date_int = data.index[FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS]\n",
"start_year, start_month = start_date_int // 100, start_date_int % 100\n",
"start_date_str = \"%02d/%02d/%d\" % (start_month, 1, start_year)\n",
"start_date_str"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"application/vnd.google.colaboratory.intrinsic+json": {
"type": "string"
},
"text/plain": [
"'01/01/1970'"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 20
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "Vu609zIpfkY8",
"outputId": "a0388963-a54a-4496-d491-b2661df18499",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"# test fit_predict\n",
"backtestmodel = BacktestModel(X, Y, create_model=LinearRegression, coef_dict_param=coef_dict_all, startindex=FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS)\n",
"print(backtestmodel.fit_predict(121, npredict=3, verbose=False))\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"[[ -4.70219919 -5.3073358 -3.72029191 -12.42448745 -6.62775756\n",
" -2.90316148 -6.79960146 -2.23172984 -5.75101181 -6.66276641\n",
" -5.75265368 -7.71979359 -6.57864566 -4.32124795 -5.0355927\n",
" -5.92230241 -4.76675177 -1.96315925 -3.43369206 -2.30343164\n",
" -3.72794445 -2.91917105 -5.27753906 -6.40474001 -6.85223288\n",
" -10.16508667 -4.69016977 -8.8042513 -5.4481542 -6.40122815]\n",
" [ -1.09819574 0.33751522 1.47276575 -7.65291563 -0.40550754\n",
" -4.96855817 -1.82873168 -3.4663124 -2.05857985 -0.68158685\n",
" -1.54307573 -2.74859589 -2.04412571 -1.77673237 -3.39612781\n",
" -4.76047089 -0.65055072 -5.08513341 1.95082965 -2.60578312\n",
" -5.09137205 -1.72203771 -3.31591182 -1.94755286 -1.38046013\n",
" -2.75841651 -0.96353404 -6.81674253 1.34059086 -1.59466739]\n",
" [ -1.96144894 -0.87682739 -3.02833064 0.58137733 -0.02056567\n",
" 1.67143038 -0.44895783 -1.70395859 -0.63283007 -0.4731534\n",
" -0.71228211 -3.61106494 -1.93572984 -0.64937617 -1.09751999\n",
" 0.24726352 -0.37303973 -1.04141371 2.1679461 -0.55736749\n",
" 0.76975122 0.67561178 1.62692312 -1.12079845 -1.07373008\n",
" -0.27905898 1.55099516 -3.06722504 -0.32196075 0.5859896 ]]\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"scrolled": false,
"id": "vmVhPVxyfkZB",
"outputId": "d2553b20-69ac-4858-bf42-a0ea06a57f8e",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"# test model on our calculated coef_dict\n",
"# bad methodology, introduces snooping\n",
"# selects LASSO vars over whole timespan\n",
"# uses selected vars to do OLS backtest\n",
"# included as an example of what not to do\n",
"backtestmodel = BacktestModel(X, Y,\n",
" create_model=LinearRegression,\n",
" coef_dict_param=coef_dict_paper, # Feed paper predictors\n",
" startindex=FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS,\n",
" fit_missing='mean',\n",
" scaler = None)\n",
"backtestmodel.gen_predictions(verbose=False)\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\n",
"15:01:39 Still training step 80 of 563\n",
"\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\n",
"15:01:43 Still training step 160 of 563\n",
"\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\n",
"15:01:49 Still training step 240 of 563\n",
"\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\n",
"15:01:54 Still training step 320 of 563\n",
"\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\n",
"15:01:59 Still training step 400 of 563\n",
"\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\n",
"15:02:04 Still training step 480 of 563\n",
"\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\b#.\n",
"15:02:11 Still training step 560 of 563\n",
"\b#.\b#.\b#.\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "zvlA7Ea0CqGA",
"outputId": "f438283d-0f25-4892-a8a7-b9a5e1dcb2a5",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"backtestmodel.gen_returns(calc_returns, verbose=True)"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"Food: long 93 times, short 37 times, total 130 times\n",
"Beer: long 122 times, short 94 times, total 216 times\n",
"Smoke: long 211 times, short 112 times, total 323 times\n",
"Games: long 147 times, short 125 times, total 272 times\n",
"Books: long 126 times, short 107 times, total 233 times\n",
"Hshld: long 81 times, short 72 times, total 153 times\n",
"Clths: long 195 times, short 172 times, total 367 times\n",
"Hlth: long 126 times, short 110 times, total 236 times\n",
"Chems: long 26 times, short 125 times, total 151 times\n",
"Txtls: long 160 times, short 128 times, total 288 times\n",
"Cnstr: long 92 times, short 124 times, total 216 times\n",
"Steel: long 4 times, short 180 times, total 184 times\n",
"FabPr: long 33 times, short 62 times, total 95 times\n",
"ElcEq: long 45 times, short 16 times, total 61 times\n",
"Autos: long 87 times, short 117 times, total 204 times\n",
"Carry: long 106 times, short 76 times, total 182 times\n",
"Mines: long 132 times, short 102 times, total 234 times\n",
"Coal: long 226 times, short 183 times, total 409 times\n",
"Oil: long 160 times, short 137 times, total 297 times\n",
"Util: long 161 times, short 182 times, total 343 times\n",
"Telcm: long 118 times, short 163 times, total 281 times\n",
"Servs: long 149 times, short 137 times, total 286 times\n",
"BusEq: long 106 times, short 123 times, total 229 times\n",
"Paper: long 50 times, short 107 times, total 157 times\n",
"Trans: long 39 times, short 56 times, total 95 times\n",
"Whlsl: long 168 times, short 147 times, total 315 times\n",
"Rtail: long 72 times, short 62 times, total 134 times\n",
"Meals: long 220 times, short 178 times, total 398 times\n",
"Fin: long 56 times, short 21 times, total 77 times\n",
"Other: long 61 times, short 117 times, total 178 times\n"
]
},
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
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" 6.12500000e-01, -1.19916667e+00, -2.45833333e-01, -3.55000000e-01,\n",
" -6.21666667e-01, 9.66666667e-01, -1.81666667e-01, -1.12833333e+00,\n",
" 2.47500000e-01, -4.89166667e-01, -1.55000000e-01, 4.10833333e-01,\n",
" -3.64166667e-01, 2.38833333e+00, 1.02666667e+00, 1.27583333e+00,\n",
" -2.60000000e-01, 2.06500000e+00, -4.89166667e-01, -1.17333333e+00,\n",
" -3.01666667e-01, 4.90000000e-01, 2.56416667e+00, 4.78583333e+00,\n",
" -1.27916667e+00, -2.12916667e+00, 2.23583333e+00, -4.37500000e-01,\n",
" -1.16666667e-01, 3.02083333e+00, -2.29583333e+00, 9.46666667e-01,\n",
" 3.38666667e+00, -6.16666667e-02, -1.62333333e+00, -3.78250000e+00,\n",
" 3.65833333e-01, -5.03333333e-01, 5.98333333e-01, -1.39000000e+00])"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 23
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "4YGCSmw9CyAc",
"outputId": "e3f4306a-a859-403c-8379-baa9bc3d3d8d",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"backtestmodel.report_returns(start_date=start_date_str, freq='M')"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"Mean return: 6.667%\n",
"Monthly Sharpe ratio: 1.123\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "zyoWNsP_C1iO",
"outputId": "b41b7806-e0d8-4100-ffd1-985d97486ba4",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/"
}
},
"source": [
"backtestmodel.evaluate_predictions()"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"OOS MSE across all predictions: 39.4986\n",
"\b#In-sample MSE: 35.8279\n",
"Variance: 39.4097\n",
"R-squared: -0.0023\n"
]
},
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"39.49859309389331"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"execution_count": 25
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "8YDisSj-X_b9",
"outputId": "100eda11-7716-4711-aacb-ff37741c240d",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 1000
}
},
"source": [
"\n",
"backtestmodel.evaluate_quantiles(chart=True, verbose=True)\n",
"\n",
"## There is clearly some signal here."
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"Avg rank correlation (Kendall's tau): 0.0589 (Expected: 0)\n",
"5-quintile accuracy: 0.2287 (Expected: 0.2)\n",
"Long/short/flat accuracy: 0.4706 (Expected: 0.44)\n",
"Confusion matrix for quantile 0\n",
"[[10953 2559]\n",
" [ 2555 823]]\n",
"Chi-square: 49.7107 (p-value: 0.00000000)\n",
"Confusion matrix for quantile 1\n",
"[[10884 2628]\n",
" [ 2628 750]]\n",
"Chi-square: 12.8020 (p-value: 0.00508507)\n",
"Confusion matrix for quantile 2\n",
"[[10850 2662]\n",
" [ 2656 722]]\n",
"Chi-square: 4.7384 (p-value: 0.19198761)\n",
"Confusion matrix for quantile 3\n",
"[[10851 2661]\n",
" [ 2666 712]]\n",
"Chi-square: 3.2442 (p-value: 0.35547827)\n",
"Confusion matrix for quantile 4\n",
"[[10994 2518]\n",
" [ 2523 855]]\n",
"Chi-square: 75.2761 (p-value: 0.00000000)\n",
"Excess true positive in quintiles 1 + 5: 326.800000\n"
]
},
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
"image/png": 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\n",
"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 720x720 with 2 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {
"needs_background": "light"
}
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"id": "PrKpbS8XfkZE"
},
"source": [
"### Functions using Plotly to generate charts for performance, scatters, heatmaps"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "8eAe0A8KfkZM"
},
"source": [
"# chart performance\n",
"\n",
"def mychart(args, names=None, title=\"\"):\n",
" x_coords = np.linspace(1970, 2016, args[0].shape[0])\n",
" plotdata = []\n",
" for i in range(len(args)):\n",
" tracelabel = \"Trace %d\" % i\n",
" if names:\n",
" tracelabel=names[i]\n",
" plotdata.append(Scatter(x=x_coords,\n",
" y=args[i].values.reshape(-1),\n",
" mode = 'line',\n",
" name=tracelabel))\n",
"\n",
" layout = Layout(\n",
" title = title,\n",
" autosize=False,\n",
" width=900,\n",
" height=600,\n",
" yaxis=dict(\n",
" type='log',\n",
" autorange=True\n",
" )\n",
" )\n",
"\n",
" fig = Figure(data=plotdata, layout=layout)\n",
"\n",
" return iplot(fig)\n",
"\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "m5l3PH6SfkZP"
},
"source": [
"def myscatter(arg1, arg2, names=None, title=\"\"):\n",
"\n",
" plotdata = []\n",
"\n",
" plotdata.append(Scatter(\n",
" x = arg1,\n",
" y = arg2,\n",
" mode = 'markers'\n",
" ))\n",
"\n",
" layout = dict(\n",
" title=title,\n",
" autosize=False,\n",
" width=\"600\",\n",
" height=\"480\",\n",
" yaxis=dict(\n",
"# type='log',\n",
" autorange=True\n",
" )\n",
" )\n",
"\n",
"# py.iplot(data, filename='basic-scatter')\n",
"\n",
" fig = Figure(data=plotdata, layout=layout)\n",
"\n",
" return iplot(fig)"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "kTX6zsSwfkZT"
},
"source": [
"def plot_matrix(lossframe, x_labels, y_labels, x_suffix=\"\", y_suffix=\"\"):\n",
"\n",
" pivot = lossframe.pivot_table(index=[y_labels], columns=[x_labels], values=['mse'])\n",
"# print(pivot)\n",
" # specify labels as strings, to force plotly to use a discrete axis\n",
"# print(pivot.columns.levels[1]).values\n",
"# print(lossframe[x_labels].dtype)\n",
"\n",
" if lossframe[x_labels].dtype == np.float64 or lossframe[x_labels].dtype == np.float32:\n",
" xaxis = [\"%f %s\" % (i, x_suffix) for i in pivot.columns.levels[1].values]\n",
" else:\n",
" xaxis = [\"%d %s\" % (i, x_suffix) for i in pivot.columns.levels[1].values]\n",
" if lossframe[y_labels].dtype == np.float64 or lossframe[y_labels].dtype == np.float32:\n",
" yaxis = [\"%f %s\" % (i, y_suffix) for i in pivot.index.values]\n",
" else:\n",
" yaxis = [\"%d %s\" % (i, y_suffix) for i in pivot.index.values]\n",
"\n",
"# print(xaxis, yaxis)\n",
" \"\"\"plot a heat map of a matrix\"\"\"\n",
" chart_width=640\n",
" chart_height=480\n",
"\n",
" layout = dict(\n",
" title=\"%s v. %s\" % (x_labels, y_labels),\n",
" height=chart_height,\n",
" width=chart_width,\n",
" margin=dict(\n",
" l=150,\n",
" r=30,\n",
" b=120,\n",
" t=100,\n",
" ),\n",
" xaxis=dict(\n",
" title=x_labels,\n",
" tickfont=dict(\n",
" family='Arial, sans-serif',\n",
" size=10,\n",
" color='black'\n",
" ),\n",
" ),\n",
" yaxis=dict(\n",
" title=y_labels,\n",
" tickfont=dict(\n",
" family='Arial, sans-serif',\n",
" size=10,\n",
" color='black'\n",
" ),\n",
" ),\n",
" )\n",
"\n",
" data = [Heatmap(z=pivot.values,\n",
" x=xaxis,\n",
" y=yaxis,\n",
" colorscale=[[0, 'rgb(0,0,255)', [1, 'rgb(255,0,0)']]],\n",
" )\n",
" ]\n",
"\n",
" fig = Figure(data=data, layout=layout)\n",
" return iplot(fig, link_text=\"\")"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"id": "39PVdCojfkZW"
},
"source": [
"### Compare LASSO, OLS models"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "C5UHu6uEb-gF"
},
"source": [
"def configure_plotly_browser_state():\n",
" import IPython\n",
" display(IPython.core.display.HTML('''\n",
" <script src=\"/static/components/requirejs/require.js\"></script>\n",
" <script>\n",
" requirejs.config({\n",
" paths: {\n",
" base: '/static/base',\n",
" plotly: 'https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-latest.min.js?noext',\n",
" },\n",
" });\n",
" </script>\n",
" '''))"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "gWUefasJfkZX",
"outputId": "d19705d1-b9e3-4b81-f15c-078f193a78a2",
"colab": {
"resources": {
"http://localhost:8080/static/components/requirejs/require.js": {
"data": "/** vim: et:ts=4:sw=4:sts=4
 * @license RequireJS 2.1.22 Copyright (c) 2010-2015, The Dojo Foundation All Rights Reserved.
 * Available via the MIT or new BSD license.
 * see: http://github.com/jrburke/requirejs for details
 */
//Not using strict: uneven strict support in browsers, #392, and causes
//problems with requirejs.exec()/transpiler plugins that may not be strict.
/*jslint regexp: true, nomen: true, sloppy: true */
/*global window, navigator, document, importScripts, setTimeout, opera */

var requirejs, require, define;
(function (global) {
    var req, s, head, baseElement, dataMain, src,
        interactiveScript, currentlyAddingScript, mainScript, subPath,
        version = '2.1.22',
        commentRegExp = /(\/\*([\s\S]*?)\*\/|([^:]|^)\/\/(.*)$)/mg,
        cjsRequireRegExp = /[^.]\s*require\s*\(\s*["']([^'"\s]+)["']\s*\)/g,
        jsSuffixRegExp = /\.js$/,
        currDirRegExp = /^\.\//,
        op = Object.prototype,
        ostring = op.toString,
        hasOwn = op.hasOwnProperty,
        ap = Array.prototype,
        isBrowser = !!(typeof window !== 'undefined' && typeof navigator !== 'undefined' && window.document),
        isWebWorker = !isBrowser && typeof importScripts !== 'undefined',
        //PS3 indicates loaded and complete, but need to wait for complete
        //specifically. Sequence is 'loading', 'loaded', execution,
        // then 'complete'. The UA check is unfortunate, but not sure how
        //to feature test w/o causing perf issues.
        readyRegExp = isBrowser && navigator.platform === 'PLAYSTATION 3' ?
                      /^complete$/ : /^(complete|loaded)$/,
        defContextName = '_',
        //Oh the tragedy, detecting opera. See the usage of isOpera for reason.
        isOpera = typeof opera !== 'undefined' && opera.toString() === '[object Opera]',
        contexts = {},
        cfg = {},
        globalDefQueue = [],
        useInteractive = false;

    function isFunction(it) {
        return ostring.call(it) === '[object Function]';
    }

    function isArray(it) {
        return ostring.call(it) === '[object Array]';
    }

    /**
     * Helper function for iterating over an array. If the func returns
     * a true value, it will break out of the loop.
     */
    function each(ary, func) {
        if (ary) {
            var i;
            for (i = 0; i < ary.length; i += 1) {
                if (ary[i] && func(ary[i], i, ary)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    /**
     * Helper function for iterating over an array backwards. If the func
     * returns a true value, it will break out of the loop.
     */
    function eachReverse(ary, func) {
        if (ary) {
            var i;
            for (i = ary.length - 1; i > -1; i -= 1) {
                if (ary[i] && func(ary[i], i, ary)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    function hasProp(obj, prop) {
        return hasOwn.call(obj, prop);
    }

    function getOwn(obj, prop) {
        return hasProp(obj, prop) && obj[prop];
    }

    /**
     * Cycles over properties in an object and calls a function for each
     * property value. If the function returns a truthy value, then the
     * iteration is stopped.
     */
    function eachProp(obj, func) {
        var prop;
        for (prop in obj) {
            if (hasProp(obj, prop)) {
                if (func(obj[prop], prop)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    /**
     * Simple function to mix in properties from source into target,
     * but only if target does not already have a property of the same name.
     */
    function mixin(target, source, force, deepStringMixin) {
        if (source) {
            eachProp(source, function (value, prop) {
                if (force || !hasProp(target, prop)) {
                    if (deepStringMixin && typeof value === 'object' && value &&
                        !isArray(value) && !isFunction(value) &&
                        !(value instanceof RegExp)) {

                        if (!target[prop]) {
                            target[prop] = {};
                        }
                        mixin(target[prop], value, force, deepStringMixin);
                    } else {
                        target[prop] = value;
                    }
                }
            });
        }
        return target;
    }

    //Similar to Function.prototype.bind, but the 'this' object is specified
    //first, since it is easier to read/figure out what 'this' will be.
    function bind(obj, fn) {
        return function () {
            return fn.apply(obj, arguments);
        };
    }

    function scripts() {
        return document.getElementsByTagName('script');
    }

    function defaultOnError(err) {
        throw err;
    }

    //Allow getting a global that is expressed in
    //dot notation, like 'a.b.c'.
    function getGlobal(value) {
        if (!value) {
            return value;
        }
        var g = global;
        each(value.split('.'), function (part) {
            g = g[part];
        });
        return g;
    }

    /**
     * Constructs an error with a pointer to an URL with more information.
     * @param {String} id the error ID that maps to an ID on a web page.
     * @param {String} message human readable error.
     * @param {Error} [err] the original error, if there is one.
     *
     * @returns {Error}
     */
    function makeError(id, msg, err, requireModules) {
        var e = new Error(msg + '\nhttp://requirejs.org/docs/errors.html#' + id);
        e.requireType = id;
        e.requireModules = requireModules;
        if (err) {
            e.originalError = err;
        }
        return e;
    }

    if (typeof define !== 'undefined') {
        //If a define is already in play via another AMD loader,
        //do not overwrite.
        return;
    }

    if (typeof requirejs !== 'undefined') {
        if (isFunction(requirejs)) {
            //Do not overwrite an existing requirejs instance.
            return;
        }
        cfg = requirejs;
        requirejs = undefined;
    }

    //Allow for a require config object
    if (typeof require !== 'undefined' && !isFunction(require)) {
        //assume it is a config object.
        cfg = require;
        require = undefined;
    }

    function newContext(contextName) {
        var inCheckLoaded, Module, context, handlers,
            checkLoadedTimeoutId,
            config = {
                //Defaults. Do not set a default for map
                //config to speed up normalize(), which
                //will run faster if there is no default.
                waitSeconds: 7,
                baseUrl: './',
                paths: {},
                bundles: {},
                pkgs: {},
                shim: {},
                config: {}
            },
            registry = {},
            //registry of just enabled modules, to speed
            //cycle breaking code when lots of modules
            //are registered, but not activated.
            enabledRegistry = {},
            undefEvents = {},
            defQueue = [],
            defined = {},
            urlFetched = {},
            bundlesMap = {},
            requireCounter = 1,
            unnormalizedCounter = 1;

        /**
         * Trims the . and .. from an array of path segments.
         * It will keep a leading path segment if a .. will become
         * the first path segment, to help with module name lookups,
         * which act like paths, but can be remapped. But the end result,
         * all paths that use this function should look normalized.
         * NOTE: this method MODIFIES the input array.
         * @param {Array} ary the array of path segments.
         */
        function trimDots(ary) {
            var i, part;
            for (i = 0; i < ary.length; i++) {
                part = ary[i];
                if (part === '.') {
                    ary.splice(i, 1);
                    i -= 1;
                } else if (part === '..') {
                    // If at the start, or previous value is still ..,
                    // keep them so that when converted to a path it may
                    // still work when converted to a path, even though
                    // as an ID it is less than ideal. In larger point
                    // releases, may be better to just kick out an error.
                    if (i === 0 || (i === 1 && ary[2] === '..') || ary[i - 1] === '..') {
                        continue;
                    } else if (i > 0) {
                        ary.splice(i - 1, 2);
                        i -= 2;
                    }
                }
            }
        }

        /**
         * Given a relative module name, like ./something, normalize it to
         * a real name that can be mapped to a path.
         * @param {String} name the relative name
         * @param {String} baseName a real name that the name arg is relative
         * to.
         * @param {Boolean} applyMap apply the map config to the value. Should
         * only be done if this normalization is for a dependency ID.
         * @returns {String} normalized name
         */
        function normalize(name, baseName, applyMap) {
            var pkgMain, mapValue, nameParts, i, j, nameSegment, lastIndex,
                foundMap, foundI, foundStarMap, starI, normalizedBaseParts,
                baseParts = (baseName && baseName.split('/')),
                map = config.map,
                starMap = map && map['*'];

            //Adjust any relative paths.
            if (name) {
                name = name.split('/');
                lastIndex = name.length - 1;

                // If wanting node ID compatibility, strip .js from end
                // of IDs. Have to do this here, and not in nameToUrl
                // because node allows either .js or non .js to map
                // to same file.
                if (config.nodeIdCompat && jsSuffixRegExp.test(name[lastIndex])) {
                    name[lastIndex] = name[lastIndex].replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');
                }

                // Starts with a '.' so need the baseName
                if (name[0].charAt(0) === '.' && baseParts) {
                    //Convert baseName to array, and lop off the last part,
                    //so that . matches that 'directory' and not name of the baseName's
                    //module. For instance, baseName of 'one/two/three', maps to
                    //'one/two/three.js', but we want the directory, 'one/two' for
                    //this normalization.
                    normalizedBaseParts = baseParts.slice(0, baseParts.length - 1);
                    name = normalizedBaseParts.concat(name);
                }

                trimDots(name);
                name = name.join('/');
            }

            //Apply map config if available.
            if (applyMap && map && (baseParts || starMap)) {
                nameParts = name.split('/');

                outerLoop: for (i = nameParts.length; i > 0; i -= 1) {
                    nameSegment = nameParts.slice(0, i).join('/');

                    if (baseParts) {
                        //Find the longest baseName segment match in the config.
                        //So, do joins on the biggest to smallest lengths of baseParts.
                        for (j = baseParts.length; j > 0; j -= 1) {
                            mapValue = getOwn(map, baseParts.slice(0, j).join('/'));

                            //baseName segment has config, find if it has one for
                            //this name.
                            if (mapValue) {
                                mapValue = getOwn(mapValue, nameSegment);
                                if (mapValue) {
                                    //Match, update name to the new value.
                                    foundMap = mapValue;
                                    foundI = i;
                                    break outerLoop;
                                }
                            }
                        }
                    }

                    //Check for a star map match, but just hold on to it,
                    //if there is a shorter segment match later in a matching
                    //config, then favor over this star map.
                    if (!foundStarMap && starMap && getOwn(starMap, nameSegment)) {
                        foundStarMap = getOwn(starMap, nameSegment);
                        starI = i;
                    }
                }

                if (!foundMap && foundStarMap) {
                    foundMap = foundStarMap;
                    foundI = starI;
                }

                if (foundMap) {
                    nameParts.splice(0, foundI, foundMap);
                    name = nameParts.join('/');
                }
            }

            // If the name points to a package's name, use
            // the package main instead.
            pkgMain = getOwn(config.pkgs, name);

            return pkgMain ? pkgMain : name;
        }

        function removeScript(name) {
            if (isBrowser) {
                each(scripts(), function (scriptNode) {
                    if (scriptNode.getAttribute('data-requiremodule') === name &&
                            scriptNode.getAttribute('data-requirecontext') === context.contextName) {
                        scriptNode.parentNode.removeChild(scriptNode);
                        return true;
                    }
                });
            }
        }

        function hasPathFallback(id) {
            var pathConfig = getOwn(config.paths, id);
            if (pathConfig && isArray(pathConfig) && pathConfig.length > 1) {
                //Pop off the first array value, since it failed, and
                //retry
                pathConfig.shift();
                context.require.undef(id);

                //Custom require that does not do map translation, since
                //ID is "absolute", already mapped/resolved.
                context.makeRequire(null, {
                    skipMap: true
                })([id]);

                return true;
            }
        }

        //Turns a plugin!resource to [plugin, resource]
        //with the plugin being undefined if the name
        //did not have a plugin prefix.
        function splitPrefix(name) {
            var prefix,
                index = name ? name.indexOf('!') : -1;
            if (index > -1) {
                prefix = name.substring(0, index);
                name = name.substring(index + 1, name.length);
            }
            return [prefix, name];
        }

        /**
         * Creates a module mapping that includes plugin prefix, module
         * name, and path. If parentModuleMap is provided it will
         * also normalize the name via require.normalize()
         *
         * @param {String} name the module name
         * @param {String} [parentModuleMap] parent module map
         * for the module name, used to resolve relative names.
         * @param {Boolean} isNormalized: is the ID already normalized.
         * This is true if this call is done for a define() module ID.
         * @param {Boolean} applyMap: apply the map config to the ID.
         * Should only be true if this map is for a dependency.
         *
         * @returns {Object}
         */
        function makeModuleMap(name, parentModuleMap, isNormalized, applyMap) {
            var url, pluginModule, suffix, nameParts,
                prefix = null,
                parentName = parentModuleMap ? parentModuleMap.name : null,
                originalName = name,
                isDefine = true,
                normalizedName = '';

            //If no name, then it means it is a require call, generate an
            //internal name.
            if (!name) {
                isDefine = false;
                name = '_@r' + (requireCounter += 1);
            }

            nameParts = splitPrefix(name);
            prefix = nameParts[0];
            name = nameParts[1];

            if (prefix) {
                prefix = normalize(prefix, parentName, applyMap);
                pluginModule = getOwn(defined, prefix);
            }

            //Account for relative paths if there is a base name.
            if (name) {
                if (prefix) {
                    if (pluginModule && pluginModule.normalize) {
                        //Plugin is loaded, use its normalize method.
                        normalizedName = pluginModule.normalize(name, function (name) {
                            return normalize(name, parentName, applyMap);
                        });
                    } else {
                        // If nested plugin references, then do not try to
                        // normalize, as it will not normalize correctly. This
                        // places a restriction on resourceIds, and the longer
                        // term solution is not to normalize until plugins are
                        // loaded and all normalizations to allow for async
                        // loading of a loader plugin. But for now, fixes the
                        // common uses. Details in #1131
                        normalizedName = name.indexOf('!') === -1 ?
                                         normalize(name, parentName, applyMap) :
                                         name;
                    }
                } else {
                    //A regular module.
                    normalizedName = normalize(name, parentName, applyMap);

                    //Normalized name may be a plugin ID due to map config
                    //application in normalize. The map config values must
                    //already be normalized, so do not need to redo that part.
                    nameParts = splitPrefix(normalizedName);
                    prefix = nameParts[0];
                    normalizedName = nameParts[1];
                    isNormalized = true;

                    url = context.nameToUrl(normalizedName);
                }
            }

            //If the id is a plugin id that cannot be determined if it needs
            //normalization, stamp it with a unique ID so two matching relative
            //ids that may conflict can be separate.
            suffix = prefix && !pluginModule && !isNormalized ?
                     '_unnormalized' + (unnormalizedCounter += 1) :
                     '';

            return {
                prefix: prefix,
                name: normalizedName,
                parentMap: parentModuleMap,
                unnormalized: !!suffix,
                url: url,
                originalName: originalName,
                isDefine: isDefine,
                id: (prefix ?
                        prefix + '!' + normalizedName :
                        normalizedName) + suffix
            };
        }

        function getModule(depMap) {
            var id = depMap.id,
                mod = getOwn(registry, id);

            if (!mod) {
                mod = registry[id] = new context.Module(depMap);
            }

            return mod;
        }

        function on(depMap, name, fn) {
            var id = depMap.id,
                mod = getOwn(registry, id);

            if (hasProp(defined, id) &&
                    (!mod || mod.defineEmitComplete)) {
                if (name === 'defined') {
                    fn(defined[id]);
                }
            } else {
                mod = getModule(depMap);
                if (mod.error && name === 'error') {
                    fn(mod.error);
                } else {
                    mod.on(name, fn);
                }
            }
        }

        function onError(err, errback) {
            var ids = err.requireModules,
                notified = false;

            if (errback) {
                errback(err);
            } else {
                each(ids, function (id) {
                    var mod = getOwn(registry, id);
                    if (mod) {
                        //Set error on module, so it skips timeout checks.
                        mod.error = err;
                        if (mod.events.error) {
                            notified = true;
                            mod.emit('error', err);
                        }
                    }
                });

                if (!notified) {
                    req.onError(err);
                }
            }
        }

        /**
         * Internal method to transfer globalQueue items to this context's
         * defQueue.
         */
        function takeGlobalQueue() {
            //Push all the globalDefQueue items into the context's defQueue
            if (globalDefQueue.length) {
                each(globalDefQueue, function(queueItem) {
                    var id = queueItem[0];
                    if (typeof id === 'string') {
                        context.defQueueMap[id] = true;
                    }
                    defQueue.push(queueItem);
                });
                globalDefQueue = [];
            }
        }

        handlers = {
            'require': function (mod) {
                if (mod.require) {
                    return mod.require;
                } else {
                    return (mod.require = context.makeRequire(mod.map));
                }
            },
            'exports': function (mod) {
                mod.usingExports = true;
                if (mod.map.isDefine) {
                    if (mod.exports) {
                        return (defined[mod.map.id] = mod.exports);
                    } else {
                        return (mod.exports = defined[mod.map.id] = {});
                    }
                }
            },
            'module': function (mod) {
                if (mod.module) {
                    return mod.module;
                } else {
                    return (mod.module = {
                        id: mod.map.id,
                        uri: mod.map.url,
                        config: function () {
                            return getOwn(config.config, mod.map.id) || {};
                        },
                        exports: mod.exports || (mod.exports = {})
                    });
                }
            }
        };

        function cleanRegistry(id) {
            //Clean up machinery used for waiting modules.
            delete registry[id];
            delete enabledRegistry[id];
        }

        function breakCycle(mod, traced, processed) {
            var id = mod.map.id;

            if (mod.error) {
                mod.emit('error', mod.error);
            } else {
                traced[id] = true;
                each(mod.depMaps, function (depMap, i) {
                    var depId = depMap.id,
                        dep = getOwn(registry, depId);

                    //Only force things that have not completed
                    //being defined, so still in the registry,
                    //and only if it has not been matched up
                    //in the module already.
                    if (dep && !mod.depMatched[i] && !processed[depId]) {
                        if (getOwn(traced, depId)) {
                            mod.defineDep(i, defined[depId]);
                            mod.check(); //pass false?
                        } else {
                            breakCycle(dep, traced, processed);
                        }
                    }
                });
                processed[id] = true;
            }
        }

        function checkLoaded() {
            var err, usingPathFallback,
                waitInterval = config.waitSeconds * 1000,
                //It is possible to disable the wait interval by using waitSeconds of 0.
                expired = waitInterval && (context.startTime + waitInterval) < new Date().getTime(),
                noLoads = [],
                reqCalls = [],
                stillLoading = false,
                needCycleCheck = true;

            //Do not bother if this call was a result of a cycle break.
            if (inCheckLoaded) {
                return;
            }

            inCheckLoaded = true;

            //Figure out the state of all the modules.
            eachProp(enabledRegistry, function (mod) {
                var map = mod.map,
                    modId = map.id;

                //Skip things that are not enabled or in error state.
                if (!mod.enabled) {
                    return;
                }

                if (!map.isDefine) {
                    reqCalls.push(mod);
                }

                if (!mod.error) {
                    //If the module should be executed, and it has not
                    //been inited and time is up, remember it.
                    if (!mod.inited && expired) {
                        if (hasPathFallback(modId)) {
                            usingPathFallback = true;
                            stillLoading = true;
                        } else {
                            noLoads.push(modId);
                            removeScript(modId);
                        }
                    } else if (!mod.inited && mod.fetched && map.isDefine) {
                        stillLoading = true;
                        if (!map.prefix) {
                            //No reason to keep looking for unfinished
                            //loading. If the only stillLoading is a
                            //plugin resource though, keep going,
                            //because it may be that a plugin resource
                            //is waiting on a non-plugin cycle.
                            return (needCycleCheck = false);
                        }
                    }
                }
            });

            if (expired && noLoads.length) {
                //If wait time expired, throw error of unloaded modules.
                err = makeError('timeout', 'Load timeout for modules: ' + noLoads, null, noLoads);
                err.contextName = context.contextName;
                return onError(err);
            }

            //Not expired, check for a cycle.
            if (needCycleCheck) {
                each(reqCalls, function (mod) {
                    breakCycle(mod, {}, {});
                });
            }

            //If still waiting on loads, and the waiting load is something
            //other than a plugin resource, or there are still outstanding
            //scripts, then just try back later.
            if ((!expired || usingPathFallback) && stillLoading) {
                //Something is still waiting to load. Wait for it, but only
                //if a timeout is not already in effect.
                if ((isBrowser || isWebWorker) && !checkLoadedTimeoutId) {
                    checkLoadedTimeoutId = setTimeout(function () {
                        checkLoadedTimeoutId = 0;
                        checkLoaded();
                    }, 50);
                }
            }

            inCheckLoaded = false;
        }

        Module = function (map) {
            this.events = getOwn(undefEvents, map.id) || {};
            this.map = map;
            this.shim = getOwn(config.shim, map.id);
            this.depExports = [];
            this.depMaps = [];
            this.depMatched = [];
            this.pluginMaps = {};
            this.depCount = 0;

            /* this.exports this.factory
               this.depMaps = [],
               this.enabled, this.fetched
            */
        };

        Module.prototype = {
            init: function (depMaps, factory, errback, options) {
                options = options || {};

                //Do not do more inits if already done. Can happen if there
                //are multiple define calls for the same module. That is not
                //a normal, common case, but it is also not unexpected.
                if (this.inited) {
                    return;
                }

                this.factory = factory;

                if (errback) {
                    //Register for errors on this module.
                    this.on('error', errback);
                } else if (this.events.error) {
                    //If no errback already, but there are error listeners
                    //on this module, set up an errback to pass to the deps.
                    errback = bind(this, function (err) {
                        this.emit('error', err);
                    });
                }

                //Do a copy of the dependency array, so that
                //source inputs are not modified. For example
                //"shim" deps are passed in here directly, and
                //doing a direct modification of the depMaps array
                //would affect that config.
                this.depMaps = depMaps && depMaps.slice(0);

                this.errback = errback;

                //Indicate this module has be initialized
                this.inited = true;

                this.ignore = options.ignore;

                //Could have option to init this module in enabled mode,
                //or could have been previously marked as enabled. However,
                //the dependencies are not known until init is called. So
                //if enabled previously, now trigger dependencies as enabled.
                if (options.enabled || this.enabled) {
                    //Enable this module and dependencies.
                    //Will call this.check()
                    this.enable();
                } else {
                    this.check();
                }
            },

            defineDep: function (i, depExports) {
                //Because of cycles, defined callback for a given
                //export can be called more than once.
                if (!this.depMatched[i]) {
                    this.depMatched[i] = true;
                    this.depCount -= 1;
                    this.depExports[i] = depExports;
                }
            },

            fetch: function () {
                if (this.fetched) {
                    return;
                }
                this.fetched = true;

                context.startTime = (new Date()).getTime();

                var map = this.map;

                //If the manager is for a plugin managed resource,
                //ask the plugin to load it now.
                if (this.shim) {
                    context.makeRequire(this.map, {
                        enableBuildCallback: true
                    })(this.shim.deps || [], bind(this, function () {
                        return map.prefix ? this.callPlugin() : this.load();
                    }));
                } else {
                    //Regular dependency.
                    return map.prefix ? this.callPlugin() : this.load();
                }
            },

            load: function () {
                var url = this.map.url;

                //Regular dependency.
                if (!urlFetched[url]) {
                    urlFetched[url] = true;
                    context.load(this.map.id, url);
                }
            },

            /**
             * Checks if the module is ready to define itself, and if so,
             * define it.
             */
            check: function () {
                if (!this.enabled || this.enabling) {
                    return;
                }

                var err, cjsModule,
                    id = this.map.id,
                    depExports = this.depExports,
                    exports = this.exports,
                    factory = this.factory;

                if (!this.inited) {
                    // Only fetch if not already in the defQueue.
                    if (!hasProp(context.defQueueMap, id)) {
                        this.fetch();
                    }
                } else if (this.error) {
                    this.emit('error', this.error);
                } else if (!this.defining) {
                    //The factory could trigger another require call
                    //that would result in checking this module to
                    //define itself again. If already in the process
                    //of doing that, skip this work.
                    this.defining = true;

                    if (this.depCount < 1 && !this.defined) {
                        if (isFunction(factory)) {
                            try {
                                exports = context.execCb(id, factory, depExports, exports);
                            } catch (e) {
                                err = e;
                            }

                            // Favor return value over exports. If node/cjs in play,
                            // then will not have a return value anyway. Favor
                            // module.exports assignment over exports object.
                            if (this.map.isDefine && exports === undefined) {
                                cjsModule = this.module;
                                if (cjsModule) {
                                    exports = cjsModule.exports;
                                } else if (this.usingExports) {
                                    //exports already set the defined value.
                                    exports = this.exports;
                                }
                            }

                            if (err) {
                                // If there is an error listener, favor passing
                                // to that instead of throwing an error. However,
                                // only do it for define()'d  modules. require
                                // errbacks should not be called for failures in
                                // their callbacks (#699). However if a global
                                // onError is set, use that.
                                if ((this.events.error && this.map.isDefine) ||
                                    req.onError !== defaultOnError) {
                                    err.requireMap = this.map;
                                    err.requireModules = this.map.isDefine ? [this.map.id] : null;
                                    err.requireType = this.map.isDefine ? 'define' : 'require';
                                    return onError((this.error = err));
                                } else if (typeof console !== 'undefined' &&
                                           console.error) {
                                    // Log the error for debugging. If promises could be
                                    // used, this would be different, but making do.
                                    console.error(err);
                                } else {
                                    // Do not want to completely lose the error. While this
                                    // will mess up processing and lead to similar results
                                    // as bug 1440, it at least surfaces the error.
                                    req.onError(err);
                                }
                            }
                        } else {
                            //Just a literal value
                            exports = factory;
                        }

                        this.exports = exports;

                        if (this.map.isDefine && !this.ignore) {
                            defined[id] = exports;

                            if (req.onResourceLoad) {
                                var resLoadMaps = [];
                                each(this.depMaps, function (depMap) {
                                    resLoadMaps.push(depMap.normalizedMap || depMap);
                                });
                                req.onResourceLoad(context, this.map, resLoadMaps);
                            }
                        }

                        //Clean up
                        cleanRegistry(id);

                        this.defined = true;
                    }

                    //Finished the define stage. Allow calling check again
                    //to allow define notifications below in the case of a
                    //cycle.
                    this.defining = false;

                    if (this.defined && !this.defineEmitted) {
                        this.defineEmitted = true;
                        this.emit('defined', this.exports);
                        this.defineEmitComplete = true;
                    }

                }
            },

            callPlugin: function () {
                var map = this.map,
                    id = map.id,
                    //Map already normalized the prefix.
                    pluginMap = makeModuleMap(map.prefix);

                //Mark this as a dependency for this plugin, so it
                //can be traced for cycles.
                this.depMaps.push(pluginMap);

                on(pluginMap, 'defined', bind(this, function (plugin) {
                    var load, normalizedMap, normalizedMod,
                        bundleId = getOwn(bundlesMap, this.map.id),
                        name = this.map.name,
                        parentName = this.map.parentMap ? this.map.parentMap.name : null,
                        localRequire = context.makeRequire(map.parentMap, {
                            enableBuildCallback: true
                        });

                    //If current map is not normalized, wait for that
                    //normalized name to load instead of continuing.
                    if (this.map.unnormalized) {
                        //Normalize the ID if the plugin allows it.
                        if (plugin.normalize) {
                            name = plugin.normalize(name, function (name) {
                                return normalize(name, parentName, true);
                            }) || '';
                        }

                        //prefix and name should already be normalized, no need
                        //for applying map config again either.
                        normalizedMap = makeModuleMap(map.prefix + '!' + name,
                                                      this.map.parentMap);
                        on(normalizedMap,
                            'defined', bind(this, function (value) {
                                this.map.normalizedMap = normalizedMap;
                                this.init([], function () { return value; }, null, {
                                    enabled: true,
                                    ignore: true
                                });
                            }));

                        normalizedMod = getOwn(registry, normalizedMap.id);
                        if (normalizedMod) {
                            //Mark this as a dependency for this plugin, so it
                            //can be traced for cycles.
                            this.depMaps.push(normalizedMap);

                            if (this.events.error) {
                                normalizedMod.on('error', bind(this, function (err) {
                                    this.emit('error', err);
                                }));
                            }
                            normalizedMod.enable();
                        }

                        return;
                    }

                    //If a paths config, then just load that file instead to
                    //resolve the plugin, as it is built into that paths layer.
                    if (bundleId) {
                        this.map.url = context.nameToUrl(bundleId);
                        this.load();
                        return;
                    }

                    load = bind(this, function (value) {
                        this.init([], function () { return value; }, null, {
                            enabled: true
                        });
                    });

                    load.error = bind(this, function (err) {
                        this.inited = true;
                        this.error = err;
                        err.requireModules = [id];

                        //Remove temp unnormalized modules for this module,
                        //since they will never be resolved otherwise now.
                        eachProp(registry, function (mod) {
                            if (mod.map.id.indexOf(id + '_unnormalized') === 0) {
                                cleanRegistry(mod.map.id);
                            }
                        });

                        onError(err);
                    });

                    //Allow plugins to load other code without having to know the
                    //context or how to 'complete' the load.
                    load.fromText = bind(this, function (text, textAlt) {
                        /*jslint evil: true */
                        var moduleName = map.name,
                            moduleMap = makeModuleMap(moduleName),
                            hasInteractive = useInteractive;

                        //As of 2.1.0, support just passing the text, to reinforce
                        //fromText only being called once per resource. Still
                        //support old style of passing moduleName but discard
                        //that moduleName in favor of the internal ref.
                        if (textAlt) {
                            text = textAlt;
                        }

                        //Turn off interactive script matching for IE for any define
                        //calls in the text, then turn it back on at the end.
                        if (hasInteractive) {
                            useInteractive = false;
                        }

                        //Prime the system by creating a module instance for
                        //it.
                        getModule(moduleMap);

                        //Transfer any config to this other module.
                        if (hasProp(config.config, id)) {
                            config.config[moduleName] = config.config[id];
                        }

                        try {
                            req.exec(text);
                        } catch (e) {
                            return onError(makeError('fromtexteval',
                                             'fromText eval for ' + id +
                                            ' failed: ' + e,
                                             e,
                                             [id]));
                        }

                        if (hasInteractive) {
                            useInteractive = true;
                        }

                        //Mark this as a dependency for the plugin
                        //resource
                        this.depMaps.push(moduleMap);

                        //Support anonymous modules.
                        context.completeLoad(moduleName);

                        //Bind the value of that module to the value for this
                        //resource ID.
                        localRequire([moduleName], load);
                    });

                    //Use parentName here since the plugin's name is not reliable,
                    //could be some weird string with no path that actually wants to
                    //reference the parentName's path.
                    plugin.load(map.name, localRequire, load, config);
                }));

                context.enable(pluginMap, this);
                this.pluginMaps[pluginMap.id] = pluginMap;
            },

            enable: function () {
                enabledRegistry[this.map.id] = this;
                this.enabled = true;

                //Set flag mentioning that the module is enabling,
                //so that immediate calls to the defined callbacks
                //for dependencies do not trigger inadvertent load
                //with the depCount still being zero.
                this.enabling = true;

                //Enable each dependency
                each(this.depMaps, bind(this, function (depMap, i) {
                    var id, mod, handler;

                    if (typeof depMap === 'string') {
                        //Dependency needs to be converted to a depMap
                        //and wired up to this module.
                        depMap = makeModuleMap(depMap,
                                               (this.map.isDefine ? this.map : this.map.parentMap),
                                               false,
                                               !this.skipMap);
                        this.depMaps[i] = depMap;

                        handler = getOwn(handlers, depMap.id);

                        if (handler) {
                            this.depExports[i] = handler(this);
                            return;
                        }

                        this.depCount += 1;

                        on(depMap, 'defined', bind(this, function (depExports) {
                            if (this.undefed) {
                                return;
                            }
                            this.defineDep(i, depExports);
                            this.check();
                        }));

                        if (this.errback) {
                            on(depMap, 'error', bind(this, this.errback));
                        } else if (this.events.error) {
                            // No direct errback on this module, but something
                            // else is listening for errors, so be sure to
                            // propagate the error correctly.
                            on(depMap, 'error', bind(this, function(err) {
                                this.emit('error', err);
                            }));
                        }
                    }

                    id = depMap.id;
                    mod = registry[id];

                    //Skip special modules like 'require', 'exports', 'module'
                    //Also, don't call enable if it is already enabled,
                    //important in circular dependency cases.
                    if (!hasProp(handlers, id) && mod && !mod.enabled) {
                        context.enable(depMap, this);
                    }
                }));

                //Enable each plugin that is used in
                //a dependency
                eachProp(this.pluginMaps, bind(this, function (pluginMap) {
                    var mod = getOwn(registry, pluginMap.id);
                    if (mod && !mod.enabled) {
                        context.enable(pluginMap, this);
                    }
                }));

                this.enabling = false;

                this.check();
            },

            on: function (name, cb) {
                var cbs = this.events[name];
                if (!cbs) {
                    cbs = this.events[name] = [];
                }
                cbs.push(cb);
            },

            emit: function (name, evt) {
                each(this.events[name], function (cb) {
                    cb(evt);
                });
                if (name === 'error') {
                    //Now that the error handler was triggered, remove
                    //the listeners, since this broken Module instance
                    //can stay around for a while in the registry.
                    delete this.events[name];
                }
            }
        };

        function callGetModule(args) {
            //Skip modules already defined.
            if (!hasProp(defined, args[0])) {
                getModule(makeModuleMap(args[0], null, true)).init(args[1], args[2]);
            }
        }

        function removeListener(node, func, name, ieName) {
            //Favor detachEvent because of IE9
            //issue, see attachEvent/addEventListener comment elsewhere
            //in this file.
            if (node.detachEvent && !isOpera) {
                //Probably IE. If not it will throw an error, which will be
                //useful to know.
                if (ieName) {
                    node.detachEvent(ieName, func);
                }
            } else {
                node.removeEventListener(name, func, false);
            }
        }

        /**
         * Given an event from a script node, get the requirejs info from it,
         * and then removes the event listeners on the node.
         * @param {Event} evt
         * @returns {Object}
         */
        function getScriptData(evt) {
            //Using currentTarget instead of target for Firefox 2.0's sake. Not
            //all old browsers will be supported, but this one was easy enough
            //to support and still makes sense.
            var node = evt.currentTarget || evt.srcElement;

            //Remove the listeners once here.
            removeListener(node, context.onScriptLoad, 'load', 'onreadystatechange');
            removeListener(node, context.onScriptError, 'error');

            return {
                node: node,
                id: node && node.getAttribute('data-requiremodule')
            };
        }

        function intakeDefines() {
            var args;

            //Any defined modules in the global queue, intake them now.
            takeGlobalQueue();

            //Make sure any remaining defQueue items get properly processed.
            while (defQueue.length) {
                args = defQueue.shift();
                if (args[0] === null) {
                    return onError(makeError('mismatch', 'Mismatched anonymous define() module: ' +
                        args[args.length - 1]));
                } else {
                    //args are id, deps, factory. Should be normalized by the
                    //define() function.
                    callGetModule(args);
                }
            }
            context.defQueueMap = {};
        }

        context = {
            config: config,
            contextName: contextName,
            registry: registry,
            defined: defined,
            urlFetched: urlFetched,
            defQueue: defQueue,
            defQueueMap: {},
            Module: Module,
            makeModuleMap: makeModuleMap,
            nextTick: req.nextTick,
            onError: onError,

            /**
             * Set a configuration for the context.
             * @param {Object} cfg config object to integrate.
             */
            configure: function (cfg) {
                //Make sure the baseUrl ends in a slash.
                if (cfg.baseUrl) {
                    if (cfg.baseUrl.charAt(cfg.baseUrl.length - 1) !== '/') {
                        cfg.baseUrl += '/';
                    }
                }

                //Save off the paths since they require special processing,
                //they are additive.
                var shim = config.shim,
                    objs = {
                        paths: true,
                        bundles: true,
                        config: true,
                        map: true
                    };

                eachProp(cfg, function (value, prop) {
                    if (objs[prop]) {
                        if (!config[prop]) {
                            config[prop] = {};
                        }
                        mixin(config[prop], value, true, true);
                    } else {
                        config[prop] = value;
                    }
                });

                //Reverse map the bundles
                if (cfg.bundles) {
                    eachProp(cfg.bundles, function (value, prop) {
                        each(value, function (v) {
                            if (v !== prop) {
                                bundlesMap[v] = prop;
                            }
                        });
                    });
                }

                //Merge shim
                if (cfg.shim) {
                    eachProp(cfg.shim, function (value, id) {
                        //Normalize the structure
                        if (isArray(value)) {
                            value = {
                                deps: value
                            };
                        }
                        if ((value.exports || value.init) && !value.exportsFn) {
                            value.exportsFn = context.makeShimExports(value);
                        }
                        shim[id] = value;
                    });
                    config.shim = shim;
                }

                //Adjust packages if necessary.
                if (cfg.packages) {
                    each(cfg.packages, function (pkgObj) {
                        var location, name;

                        pkgObj = typeof pkgObj === 'string' ? {name: pkgObj} : pkgObj;

                        name = pkgObj.name;
                        location = pkgObj.location;
                        if (location) {
                            config.paths[name] = pkgObj.location;
                        }

                        //Save pointer to main module ID for pkg name.
                        //Remove leading dot in main, so main paths are normalized,
                        //and remove any trailing .js, since different package
                        //envs have different conventions: some use a module name,
                        //some use a file name.
                        config.pkgs[name] = pkgObj.name + '/' + (pkgObj.main || 'main')
                                     .replace(currDirRegExp, '')
                                     .replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');
                    });
                }

                //If there are any "waiting to execute" modules in the registry,
                //update the maps for them, since their info, like URLs to load,
                //may have changed.
                eachProp(registry, function (mod, id) {
                    //If module already has init called, since it is too
                    //late to modify them, and ignore unnormalized ones
                    //since they are transient.
                    if (!mod.inited && !mod.map.unnormalized) {
                        mod.map = makeModuleMap(id, null, true);
                    }
                });

                //If a deps array or a config callback is specified, then call
                //require with those args. This is useful when require is defined as a
                //config object before require.js is loaded.
                if (cfg.deps || cfg.callback) {
                    context.require(cfg.deps || [], cfg.callback);
                }
            },

            makeShimExports: function (value) {
                function fn() {
                    var ret;
                    if (value.init) {
                        ret = value.init.apply(global, arguments);
                    }
                    return ret || (value.exports && getGlobal(value.exports));
                }
                return fn;
            },

            makeRequire: function (relMap, options) {
                options = options || {};

                function localRequire(deps, callback, errback) {
                    var id, map, requireMod;

                    if (options.enableBuildCallback && callback && isFunction(callback)) {
                        callback.__requireJsBuild = true;
                    }

                    if (typeof deps === 'string') {
                        if (isFunction(callback)) {
                            //Invalid call
                            return onError(makeError('requireargs', 'Invalid require call'), errback);
                        }

                        //If require|exports|module are requested, get the
                        //value for them from the special handlers. Caveat:
                        //this only works while module is being defined.
                        if (relMap && hasProp(handlers, deps)) {
                            return handlers[deps](registry[relMap.id]);
                        }

                        //Synchronous access to one module. If require.get is
                        //available (as in the Node adapter), prefer that.
                        if (req.get) {
                            return req.get(context, deps, relMap, localRequire);
                        }

                        //Normalize module name, if it contains . or ..
                        map = makeModuleMap(deps, relMap, false, true);
                        id = map.id;

                        if (!hasProp(defined, id)) {
                            return onError(makeError('notloaded', 'Module name "' +
                                        id +
                                        '" has not been loaded yet for context: ' +
                                        contextName +
                                        (relMap ? '' : '. Use require([])')));
                        }
                        return defined[id];
                    }

                    //Grab defines waiting in the global queue.
                    intakeDefines();

                    //Mark all the dependencies as needing to be loaded.
                    context.nextTick(function () {
                        //Some defines could have been added since the
                        //require call, collect them.
                        intakeDefines();

                        requireMod = getModule(makeModuleMap(null, relMap));

                        //Store if map config should be applied to this require
                        //call for dependencies.
                        requireMod.skipMap = options.skipMap;

                        requireMod.init(deps, callback, errback, {
                            enabled: true
                        });

                        checkLoaded();
                    });

                    return localRequire;
                }

                mixin(localRequire, {
                    isBrowser: isBrowser,

                    /**
                     * Converts a module name + .extension into an URL path.
                     * *Requires* the use of a module name. It does not support using
                     * plain URLs like nameToUrl.
                     */
                    toUrl: function (moduleNamePlusExt) {
                        var ext,
                            index = moduleNamePlusExt.lastIndexOf('.'),
                            segment = moduleNamePlusExt.split('/')[0],
                            isRelative = segment === '.' || segment === '..';

                        //Have a file extension alias, and it is not the
                        //dots from a relative path.
                        if (index !== -1 && (!isRelative || index > 1)) {
                            ext = moduleNamePlusExt.substring(index, moduleNamePlusExt.length);
                            moduleNamePlusExt = moduleNamePlusExt.substring(0, index);
                        }

                        return context.nameToUrl(normalize(moduleNamePlusExt,
                                                relMap && relMap.id, true), ext,  true);
                    },

                    defined: function (id) {
                        return hasProp(defined, makeModuleMap(id, relMap, false, true).id);
                    },

                    specified: function (id) {
                        id = makeModuleMap(id, relMap, false, true).id;
                        return hasProp(defined, id) || hasProp(registry, id);
                    }
                });

                //Only allow undef on top level require calls
                if (!relMap) {
                    localRequire.undef = function (id) {
                        //Bind any waiting define() calls to this context,
                        //fix for #408
                        takeGlobalQueue();

                        var map = makeModuleMap(id, relMap, true),
                            mod = getOwn(registry, id);

                        mod.undefed = true;
                        removeScript(id);

                        delete defined[id];
                        delete urlFetched[map.url];
                        delete undefEvents[id];

                        //Clean queued defines too. Go backwards
                        //in array so that the splices do not
                        //mess up the iteration.
                        eachReverse(defQueue, function(args, i) {
                            if (args[0] === id) {
                                defQueue.splice(i, 1);
                            }
                        });
                        delete context.defQueueMap[id];

                        if (mod) {
                            //Hold on to listeners in case the
                            //module will be attempted to be reloaded
                            //using a different config.
                            if (mod.events.defined) {
                                undefEvents[id] = mod.events;
                            }

                            cleanRegistry(id);
                        }
                    };
                }

                return localRequire;
            },

            /**
             * Called to enable a module if it is still in the registry
             * awaiting enablement. A second arg, parent, the parent module,
             * is passed in for context, when this method is overridden by
             * the optimizer. Not shown here to keep code compact.
             */
            enable: function (depMap) {
                var mod = getOwn(registry, depMap.id);
                if (mod) {
                    getModule(depMap).enable();
                }
            },

            /**
             * Internal method used by environment adapters to complete a load event.
             * A load event could be a script load or just a load pass from a synchronous
             * load call.
             * @param {String} moduleName the name of the module to potentially complete.
             */
            completeLoad: function (moduleName) {
                var found, args, mod,
                    shim = getOwn(config.shim, moduleName) || {},
                    shExports = shim.exports;

                takeGlobalQueue();

                while (defQueue.length) {
                    args = defQueue.shift();
                    if (args[0] === null) {
                        args[0] = moduleName;
                        //If already found an anonymous module and bound it
                        //to this name, then this is some other anon module
                        //waiting for its completeLoad to fire.
                        if (found) {
                            break;
                        }
                        found = true;
                    } else if (args[0] === moduleName) {
                        //Found matching define call for this script!
                        found = true;
                    }

                    callGetModule(args);
                }
                context.defQueueMap = {};

                //Do this after the cycle of callGetModule in case the result
                //of those calls/init calls changes the registry.
                mod = getOwn(registry, moduleName);

                if (!found && !hasProp(defined, moduleName) && mod && !mod.inited) {
                    if (config.enforceDefine && (!shExports || !getGlobal(shExports))) {
                        if (hasPathFallback(moduleName)) {
                            return;
                        } else {
                            return onError(makeError('nodefine',
                                             'No define call for ' + moduleName,
                                             null,
                                             [moduleName]));
                        }
                    } else {
                        //A script that does not call define(), so just simulate
                        //the call for it.
                        callGetModule([moduleName, (shim.deps || []), shim.exportsFn]);
                    }
                }

                checkLoaded();
            },

            /**
             * Converts a module name to a file path. Supports cases where
             * moduleName may actually be just an URL.
             * Note that it **does not** call normalize on the moduleName,
             * it is assumed to have already been normalized. This is an
             * internal API, not a public one. Use toUrl for the public API.
             */
            nameToUrl: function (moduleName, ext, skipExt) {
                var paths, syms, i, parentModule, url,
                    parentPath, bundleId,
                    pkgMain = getOwn(config.pkgs, moduleName);

                if (pkgMain) {
                    moduleName = pkgMain;
                }

                bundleId = getOwn(bundlesMap, moduleName);

                if (bundleId) {
                    return context.nameToUrl(bundleId, ext, skipExt);
                }

                //If a colon is in the URL, it indicates a protocol is used and it is just
                //an URL to a file, or if it starts with a slash, contains a query arg (i.e. ?)
                //or ends with .js, then assume the user meant to use an url and not a module id.
                //The slash is important for protocol-less URLs as well as full paths.
                if (req.jsExtRegExp.test(moduleName)) {
                    //Just a plain path, not module name lookup, so just return it.
                    //Add extension if it is included. This is a bit wonky, only non-.js things pass
                    //an extension, this method probably needs to be reworked.
                    url = moduleName + (ext || '');
                } else {
                    //A module that needs to be converted to a path.
                    paths = config.paths;

                    syms = moduleName.split('/');
                    //For each module name segment, see if there is a path
                    //registered for it. Start with most specific name
                    //and work up from it.
                    for (i = syms.length; i > 0; i -= 1) {
                        parentModule = syms.slice(0, i).join('/');

                        parentPath = getOwn(paths, parentModule);
                        if (parentPath) {
                            //If an array, it means there are a few choices,
                            //Choose the one that is desired
                            if (isArray(parentPath)) {
                                parentPath = parentPath[0];
                            }
                            syms.splice(0, i, parentPath);
                            break;
                        }
                    }

                    //Join the path parts together, then figure out if baseUrl is needed.
                    url = syms.join('/');
                    url += (ext || (/^data\:|\?/.test(url) || skipExt ? '' : '.js'));
                    url = (url.charAt(0) === '/' || url.match(/^[\w\+\.\-]+:/) ? '' : config.baseUrl) + url;
                }

                return config.urlArgs ? url +
                                        ((url.indexOf('?') === -1 ? '?' : '&') +
                                         config.urlArgs) : url;
            },

            //Delegates to req.load. Broken out as a separate function to
            //allow overriding in the optimizer.
            load: function (id, url) {
                req.load(context, id, url);
            },

            /**
             * Executes a module callback function. Broken out as a separate function
             * solely to allow the build system to sequence the files in the built
             * layer in the right sequence.
             *
             * @private
             */
            execCb: function (name, callback, args, exports) {
                return callback.apply(exports, args);
            },

            /**
             * callback for script loads, used to check status of loading.
             *
             * @param {Event} evt the event from the browser for the script
             * that was loaded.
             */
            onScriptLoad: function (evt) {
                //Using currentTarget instead of target for Firefox 2.0's sake. Not
                //all old browsers will be supported, but this one was easy enough
                //to support and still makes sense.
                if (evt.type === 'load' ||
                        (readyRegExp.test((evt.currentTarget || evt.srcElement).readyState))) {
                    //Reset interactive script so a script node is not held onto for
                    //to long.
                    interactiveScript = null;

                    //Pull out the name of the module and the context.
                    var data = getScriptData(evt);
                    context.completeLoad(data.id);
                }
            },

            /**
             * Callback for script errors.
             */
            onScriptError: function (evt) {
                var data = getScriptData(evt);
                if (!hasPathFallback(data.id)) {
                    var parents = [];
                    eachProp(registry, function(value, key) {
                        if (key.indexOf('_@r') !== 0) {
                            each(value.depMaps, function(depMap) {
                                if (depMap.id === data.id) {
                                    parents.push(key);
                                }
                                return true;
                            });
                        }
                    });
                    return onError(makeError('scripterror', 'Script error for "' + data.id +
                                             (parents.length ?
                                             '", needed by: ' + parents.join(', ') :
                                             '"'), evt, [data.id]));
                }
            }
        };

        context.require = context.makeRequire();
        return context;
    }

    /**
     * Main entry point.
     *
     * If the only argument to require is a string, then the module that
     * is represented by that string is fetched for the appropriate context.
     *
     * If the first argument is an array, then it will be treated as an array
     * of dependency string names to fetch. An optional function callback can
     * be specified to execute when all of those dependencies are available.
     *
     * Make a local req variable to help Caja compliance (it assumes things
     * on a require that are not standardized), and to give a short
     * name for minification/local scope use.
     */
    req = requirejs = function (deps, callback, errback, optional) {

        //Find the right context, use default
        var context, config,
            contextName = defContextName;

        // Determine if have config object in the call.
        if (!isArray(deps) && typeof deps !== 'string') {
            // deps is a config object
            config = deps;
            if (isArray(callback)) {
                // Adjust args if there are dependencies
                deps = callback;
                callback = errback;
                errback = optional;
            } else {
                deps = [];
            }
        }

        if (config && config.context) {
            contextName = config.context;
        }

        context = getOwn(contexts, contextName);
        if (!context) {
            context = contexts[contextName] = req.s.newContext(contextName);
        }

        if (config) {
            context.configure(config);
        }

        return context.require(deps, callback, errback);
    };

    /**
     * Support require.config() to make it easier to cooperate with other
     * AMD loaders on globally agreed names.
     */
    req.config = function (config) {
        return req(config);
    };

    /**
     * Execute something after the current tick
     * of the event loop. Override for other envs
     * that have a better solution than setTimeout.
     * @param  {Function} fn function to execute later.
     */
    req.nextTick = typeof setTimeout !== 'undefined' ? function (fn) {
        setTimeout(fn, 4);
    } : function (fn) { fn(); };

    /**
     * Export require as a global, but only if it does not already exist.
     */
    if (!require) {
        require = req;
    }

    req.version = version;

    //Used to filter out dependencies that are already paths.
    req.jsExtRegExp = /^\/|:|\?|\.js$/;
    req.isBrowser = isBrowser;
    s = req.s = {
        contexts: contexts,
        newContext: newContext
    };

    //Create default context.
    req({});

    //Exports some context-sensitive methods on global require.
    each([
        'toUrl',
        'undef',
        'defined',
        'specified'
    ], function (prop) {
        //Reference from contexts instead of early binding to default context,
        //so that during builds, the latest instance of the default context
        //with its config gets used.
        req[prop] = function () {
            var ctx = contexts[defContextName];
            return ctx.require[prop].apply(ctx, arguments);
        };
    });

    if (isBrowser) {
        head = s.head = document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0];
        //If BASE tag is in play, using appendChild is a problem for IE6.
        //When that browser dies, this can be removed. Details in this jQuery bug:
        //http://dev.jquery.com/ticket/2709
        baseElement = document.getElementsByTagName('base')[0];
        if (baseElement) {
            head = s.head = baseElement.parentNode;
        }
    }

    /**
     * Any errors that require explicitly generates will be passed to this
     * function. Intercept/override it if you want custom error handling.
     * @param {Error} err the error object.
     */
    req.onError = defaultOnError;

    /**
     * Creates the node for the load command. Only used in browser envs.
     */
    req.createNode = function (config, moduleName, url) {
        var node = config.xhtml ?
                document.createElementNS('http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml', 'html:script') :
                document.createElement('script');
        node.type = config.scriptType || 'text/javascript';
        node.charset = 'utf-8';
        node.async = true;
        return node;
    };

    /**
     * Does the request to load a module for the browser case.
     * Make this a separate function to allow other environments
     * to override it.
     *
     * @param {Object} context the require context to find state.
     * @param {String} moduleName the name of the module.
     * @param {Object} url the URL to the module.
     */
    req.load = function (context, moduleName, url) {
        var config = (context && context.config) || {},
            node;
        if (isBrowser) {
            //In the browser so use a script tag
            node = req.createNode(config, moduleName, url);
            if (config.onNodeCreated) {
                config.onNodeCreated(node, config, moduleName, url);
            }

            node.setAttribute('data-requirecontext', context.contextName);
            node.setAttribute('data-requiremodule', moduleName);

            //Set up load listener. Test attachEvent first because IE9 has
            //a subtle issue in its addEventListener and script onload firings
            //that do not match the behavior of all other browsers with
            //addEventListener support, which fire the onload event for a
            //script right after the script execution. See:
            //https://connect.microsoft.com/IE/feedback/details/648057/script-onload-event-is-not-fired-immediately-after-script-execution
            //UNFORTUNATELY Opera implements attachEvent but does not follow the script
            //script execution mode.
            if (node.attachEvent &&
                    //Check if node.attachEvent is artificially added by custom script or
                    //natively supported by browser
                    //read https://github.com/jrburke/requirejs/issues/187
                    //if we can NOT find [native code] then it must NOT natively supported.
                    //in IE8, node.attachEvent does not have toString()
                    //Note the test for "[native code" with no closing brace, see:
                    //https://github.com/jrburke/requirejs/issues/273
                    !(node.attachEvent.toString && node.attachEvent.toString().indexOf('[native code') < 0) &&
                    !isOpera) {
                //Probably IE. IE (at least 6-8) do not fire
                //script onload right after executing the script, so
                //we cannot tie the anonymous define call to a name.
                //However, IE reports the script as being in 'interactive'
                //readyState at the time of the define call.
                useInteractive = true;

                node.attachEvent('onreadystatechange', context.onScriptLoad);
                //It would be great to add an error handler here to catch
                //404s in IE9+. However, onreadystatechange will fire before
                //the error handler, so that does not help. If addEventListener
                //is used, then IE will fire error before load, but we cannot
                //use that pathway given the connect.microsoft.com issue
                //mentioned above about not doing the 'script execute,
                //then fire the script load event listener before execute
                //next script' that other browsers do.
                //Best hope: IE10 fixes the issues,
                //and then destroys all installs of IE 6-9.
                //node.attachEvent('onerror', context.onScriptError);
            } else {
                node.addEventListener('load', context.onScriptLoad, false);
                node.addEventListener('error', context.onScriptError, false);
            }
            node.src = url;

            //For some cache cases in IE 6-8, the script executes before the end
            //of the appendChild execution, so to tie an anonymous define
            //call to the module name (which is stored on the node), hold on
            //to a reference to this node, but clear after the DOM insertion.
            currentlyAddingScript = node;
            if (baseElement) {
                head.insertBefore(node, baseElement);
            } else {
                head.appendChild(node);
            }
            currentlyAddingScript = null;

            return node;
        } else if (isWebWorker) {
            try {
                //In a web worker, use importScripts. This is not a very
                //efficient use of importScripts, importScripts will block until
                //its script is downloaded and evaluated. However, if web workers
                //are in play, the expectation is that a build has been done so
                //that only one script needs to be loaded anyway. This may need
                //to be reevaluated if other use cases become common.
                importScripts(url);

                //Account for anonymous modules
                context.completeLoad(moduleName);
            } catch (e) {
                context.onError(makeError('importscripts',
                                'importScripts failed for ' +
                                    moduleName + ' at ' + url,
                                e,
                                [moduleName]));
            }
        }
    };

    function getInteractiveScript() {
        if (interactiveScript && interactiveScript.readyState === 'interactive') {
            return interactiveScript;
        }

        eachReverse(scripts(), function (script) {
            if (script.readyState === 'interactive') {
                return (interactiveScript = script);
            }
        });
        return interactiveScript;
    }

    //Look for a data-main script attribute, which could also adjust the baseUrl.
    if (isBrowser && !cfg.skipDataMain) {
        //Figure out baseUrl. Get it from the script tag with require.js in it.
        eachReverse(scripts(), function (script) {
            //Set the 'head' where we can append children by
            //using the script's parent.
            if (!head) {
                head = script.parentNode;
            }

            //Look for a data-main attribute to set main script for the page
            //to load. If it is there, the path to data main becomes the
            //baseUrl, if it is not already set.
            dataMain = script.getAttribute('data-main');
            if (dataMain) {
                //Preserve dataMain in case it is a path (i.e. contains '?')
                mainScript = dataMain;

                //Set final baseUrl if there is not already an explicit one.
                if (!cfg.baseUrl) {
                    //Pull off the directory of data-main for use as the
                    //baseUrl.
                    src = mainScript.split('/');
                    mainScript = src.pop();
                    subPath = src.length ? src.join('/')  + '/' : './';

                    cfg.baseUrl = subPath;
                }

                //Strip off any trailing .js since mainScript is now
                //like a module name.
                mainScript = mainScript.replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');

                //If mainScript is still a path, fall back to dataMain
                if (req.jsExtRegExp.test(mainScript)) {
                    mainScript = dataMain;
                }

                //Put the data-main script in the files to load.
                cfg.deps = cfg.deps ? cfg.deps.concat(mainScript) : [mainScript];

                return true;
            }
        });
    }

    /**
     * The function that handles definitions of modules. Differs from
     * require() in that a string for the module should be the first argument,
     * and the function to execute after dependencies are loaded should
     * return a value to define the module corresponding to the first argument's
     * name.
     */
    define = function (name, deps, callback) {
        var node, context;

        //Allow for anonymous modules
        if (typeof name !== 'string') {
            //Adjust args appropriately
            callback = deps;
            deps = name;
            name = null;
        }

        //This module may not have dependencies
        if (!isArray(deps)) {
            callback = deps;
            deps = null;
        }

        //If no name, and callback is a function, then figure out if it a
        //CommonJS thing with dependencies.
        if (!deps && isFunction(callback)) {
            deps = [];
            //Remove comments from the callback string,
            //look for require calls, and pull them into the dependencies,
            //but only if there are function args.
            if (callback.length) {
                callback
                    .toString()
                    .replace(commentRegExp, '')
                    .replace(cjsRequireRegExp, function (match, dep) {
                        deps.push(dep);
                    });

                //May be a CommonJS thing even without require calls, but still
                //could use exports, and module. Avoid doing exports and module
                //work though if it just needs require.
                //REQUIRES the function to expect the CommonJS variables in the
                //order listed below.
                deps = (callback.length === 1 ? ['require'] : ['require', 'exports', 'module']).concat(deps);
            }
        }

        //If in IE 6-8 and hit an anonymous define() call, do the interactive
        //work.
        if (useInteractive) {
            node = currentlyAddingScript || getInteractiveScript();
            if (node) {
                if (!name) {
                    name = node.getAttribute('data-requiremodule');
                }
                context = contexts[node.getAttribute('data-requirecontext')];
            }
        }

        //Always save off evaluating the def call until the script onload handler.
        //This allows multiple modules to be in a file without prematurely
        //tracing dependencies, and allows for anonymous module support,
        //where the module name is not known until the script onload event
        //occurs. If no context, use the global queue, and get it processed
        //in the onscript load callback.
        if (context) {
            context.defQueue.push([name, deps, callback]);
            context.defQueueMap[name] = true;
        } else {
            globalDefQueue.push([name, deps, callback]);
        }
    };

    define.amd = {
        jQuery: true
    };

    /**
     * Executes the text. Normally just uses eval, but can be modified
     * to use a better, environment-specific call. Only used for transpiling
     * loader plugins, not for plain JS modules.
     * @param {String} text the text to execute/evaluate.
     */
    req.exec = function (text) {
        /*jslint evil: true */
        return eval(text);
    };

    //Set up with config info.
    req(cfg);
}(this));
",
"ok": true,
"headers": [
[
"content-type",
"application/javascript"
]
],
"status": 200,
"status_text": ""
}
},
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 617
}
},
"source": [
"configure_plotly_browser_state()\n",
"perf_post_LASSO = backtestmodel.cumulative_return\n",
"mychart([perf_post_LASSO],[\"Post-LASSO\"], title=\"Post-LASSO\")\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
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" <script>\n",
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" plotly: 'https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-latest.min.js?noext',\n",
" },\n",
" });\n",
" </script>\n",
" "
],
"text/plain": [
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},
"metadata": {}
},
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},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"scrolled": false,
"id": "mmuwIkGzfkZd",
"outputId": "d43cd4e9-e1cb-4ab7-ee2e-5b01552d2129",
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"data": "/** vim: et:ts=4:sw=4:sts=4
 * @license RequireJS 2.1.22 Copyright (c) 2010-2015, The Dojo Foundation All Rights Reserved.
 * Available via the MIT or new BSD license.
 * see: http://github.com/jrburke/requirejs for details
 */
//Not using strict: uneven strict support in browsers, #392, and causes
//problems with requirejs.exec()/transpiler plugins that may not be strict.
/*jslint regexp: true, nomen: true, sloppy: true */
/*global window, navigator, document, importScripts, setTimeout, opera */

var requirejs, require, define;
(function (global) {
    var req, s, head, baseElement, dataMain, src,
        interactiveScript, currentlyAddingScript, mainScript, subPath,
        version = '2.1.22',
        commentRegExp = /(\/\*([\s\S]*?)\*\/|([^:]|^)\/\/(.*)$)/mg,
        cjsRequireRegExp = /[^.]\s*require\s*\(\s*["']([^'"\s]+)["']\s*\)/g,
        jsSuffixRegExp = /\.js$/,
        currDirRegExp = /^\.\//,
        op = Object.prototype,
        ostring = op.toString,
        hasOwn = op.hasOwnProperty,
        ap = Array.prototype,
        isBrowser = !!(typeof window !== 'undefined' && typeof navigator !== 'undefined' && window.document),
        isWebWorker = !isBrowser && typeof importScripts !== 'undefined',
        //PS3 indicates loaded and complete, but need to wait for complete
        //specifically. Sequence is 'loading', 'loaded', execution,
        // then 'complete'. The UA check is unfortunate, but not sure how
        //to feature test w/o causing perf issues.
        readyRegExp = isBrowser && navigator.platform === 'PLAYSTATION 3' ?
                      /^complete$/ : /^(complete|loaded)$/,
        defContextName = '_',
        //Oh the tragedy, detecting opera. See the usage of isOpera for reason.
        isOpera = typeof opera !== 'undefined' && opera.toString() === '[object Opera]',
        contexts = {},
        cfg = {},
        globalDefQueue = [],
        useInteractive = false;

    function isFunction(it) {
        return ostring.call(it) === '[object Function]';
    }

    function isArray(it) {
        return ostring.call(it) === '[object Array]';
    }

    /**
     * Helper function for iterating over an array. If the func returns
     * a true value, it will break out of the loop.
     */
    function each(ary, func) {
        if (ary) {
            var i;
            for (i = 0; i < ary.length; i += 1) {
                if (ary[i] && func(ary[i], i, ary)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    /**
     * Helper function for iterating over an array backwards. If the func
     * returns a true value, it will break out of the loop.
     */
    function eachReverse(ary, func) {
        if (ary) {
            var i;
            for (i = ary.length - 1; i > -1; i -= 1) {
                if (ary[i] && func(ary[i], i, ary)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    function hasProp(obj, prop) {
        return hasOwn.call(obj, prop);
    }

    function getOwn(obj, prop) {
        return hasProp(obj, prop) && obj[prop];
    }

    /**
     * Cycles over properties in an object and calls a function for each
     * property value. If the function returns a truthy value, then the
     * iteration is stopped.
     */
    function eachProp(obj, func) {
        var prop;
        for (prop in obj) {
            if (hasProp(obj, prop)) {
                if (func(obj[prop], prop)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    /**
     * Simple function to mix in properties from source into target,
     * but only if target does not already have a property of the same name.
     */
    function mixin(target, source, force, deepStringMixin) {
        if (source) {
            eachProp(source, function (value, prop) {
                if (force || !hasProp(target, prop)) {
                    if (deepStringMixin && typeof value === 'object' && value &&
                        !isArray(value) && !isFunction(value) &&
                        !(value instanceof RegExp)) {

                        if (!target[prop]) {
                            target[prop] = {};
                        }
                        mixin(target[prop], value, force, deepStringMixin);
                    } else {
                        target[prop] = value;
                    }
                }
            });
        }
        return target;
    }

    //Similar to Function.prototype.bind, but the 'this' object is specified
    //first, since it is easier to read/figure out what 'this' will be.
    function bind(obj, fn) {
        return function () {
            return fn.apply(obj, arguments);
        };
    }

    function scripts() {
        return document.getElementsByTagName('script');
    }

    function defaultOnError(err) {
        throw err;
    }

    //Allow getting a global that is expressed in
    //dot notation, like 'a.b.c'.
    function getGlobal(value) {
        if (!value) {
            return value;
        }
        var g = global;
        each(value.split('.'), function (part) {
            g = g[part];
        });
        return g;
    }

    /**
     * Constructs an error with a pointer to an URL with more information.
     * @param {String} id the error ID that maps to an ID on a web page.
     * @param {String} message human readable error.
     * @param {Error} [err] the original error, if there is one.
     *
     * @returns {Error}
     */
    function makeError(id, msg, err, requireModules) {
        var e = new Error(msg + '\nhttp://requirejs.org/docs/errors.html#' + id);
        e.requireType = id;
        e.requireModules = requireModules;
        if (err) {
            e.originalError = err;
        }
        return e;
    }

    if (typeof define !== 'undefined') {
        //If a define is already in play via another AMD loader,
        //do not overwrite.
        return;
    }

    if (typeof requirejs !== 'undefined') {
        if (isFunction(requirejs)) {
            //Do not overwrite an existing requirejs instance.
            return;
        }
        cfg = requirejs;
        requirejs = undefined;
    }

    //Allow for a require config object
    if (typeof require !== 'undefined' && !isFunction(require)) {
        //assume it is a config object.
        cfg = require;
        require = undefined;
    }

    function newContext(contextName) {
        var inCheckLoaded, Module, context, handlers,
            checkLoadedTimeoutId,
            config = {
                //Defaults. Do not set a default for map
                //config to speed up normalize(), which
                //will run faster if there is no default.
                waitSeconds: 7,
                baseUrl: './',
                paths: {},
                bundles: {},
                pkgs: {},
                shim: {},
                config: {}
            },
            registry = {},
            //registry of just enabled modules, to speed
            //cycle breaking code when lots of modules
            //are registered, but not activated.
            enabledRegistry = {},
            undefEvents = {},
            defQueue = [],
            defined = {},
            urlFetched = {},
            bundlesMap = {},
            requireCounter = 1,
            unnormalizedCounter = 1;

        /**
         * Trims the . and .. from an array of path segments.
         * It will keep a leading path segment if a .. will become
         * the first path segment, to help with module name lookups,
         * which act like paths, but can be remapped. But the end result,
         * all paths that use this function should look normalized.
         * NOTE: this method MODIFIES the input array.
         * @param {Array} ary the array of path segments.
         */
        function trimDots(ary) {
            var i, part;
            for (i = 0; i < ary.length; i++) {
                part = ary[i];
                if (part === '.') {
                    ary.splice(i, 1);
                    i -= 1;
                } else if (part === '..') {
                    // If at the start, or previous value is still ..,
                    // keep them so that when converted to a path it may
                    // still work when converted to a path, even though
                    // as an ID it is less than ideal. In larger point
                    // releases, may be better to just kick out an error.
                    if (i === 0 || (i === 1 && ary[2] === '..') || ary[i - 1] === '..') {
                        continue;
                    } else if (i > 0) {
                        ary.splice(i - 1, 2);
                        i -= 2;
                    }
                }
            }
        }

        /**
         * Given a relative module name, like ./something, normalize it to
         * a real name that can be mapped to a path.
         * @param {String} name the relative name
         * @param {String} baseName a real name that the name arg is relative
         * to.
         * @param {Boolean} applyMap apply the map config to the value. Should
         * only be done if this normalization is for a dependency ID.
         * @returns {String} normalized name
         */
        function normalize(name, baseName, applyMap) {
            var pkgMain, mapValue, nameParts, i, j, nameSegment, lastIndex,
                foundMap, foundI, foundStarMap, starI, normalizedBaseParts,
                baseParts = (baseName && baseName.split('/')),
                map = config.map,
                starMap = map && map['*'];

            //Adjust any relative paths.
            if (name) {
                name = name.split('/');
                lastIndex = name.length - 1;

                // If wanting node ID compatibility, strip .js from end
                // of IDs. Have to do this here, and not in nameToUrl
                // because node allows either .js or non .js to map
                // to same file.
                if (config.nodeIdCompat && jsSuffixRegExp.test(name[lastIndex])) {
                    name[lastIndex] = name[lastIndex].replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');
                }

                // Starts with a '.' so need the baseName
                if (name[0].charAt(0) === '.' && baseParts) {
                    //Convert baseName to array, and lop off the last part,
                    //so that . matches that 'directory' and not name of the baseName's
                    //module. For instance, baseName of 'one/two/three', maps to
                    //'one/two/three.js', but we want the directory, 'one/two' for
                    //this normalization.
                    normalizedBaseParts = baseParts.slice(0, baseParts.length - 1);
                    name = normalizedBaseParts.concat(name);
                }

                trimDots(name);
                name = name.join('/');
            }

            //Apply map config if available.
            if (applyMap && map && (baseParts || starMap)) {
                nameParts = name.split('/');

                outerLoop: for (i = nameParts.length; i > 0; i -= 1) {
                    nameSegment = nameParts.slice(0, i).join('/');

                    if (baseParts) {
                        //Find the longest baseName segment match in the config.
                        //So, do joins on the biggest to smallest lengths of baseParts.
                        for (j = baseParts.length; j > 0; j -= 1) {
                            mapValue = getOwn(map, baseParts.slice(0, j).join('/'));

                            //baseName segment has config, find if it has one for
                            //this name.
                            if (mapValue) {
                                mapValue = getOwn(mapValue, nameSegment);
                                if (mapValue) {
                                    //Match, update name to the new value.
                                    foundMap = mapValue;
                                    foundI = i;
                                    break outerLoop;
                                }
                            }
                        }
                    }

                    //Check for a star map match, but just hold on to it,
                    //if there is a shorter segment match later in a matching
                    //config, then favor over this star map.
                    if (!foundStarMap && starMap && getOwn(starMap, nameSegment)) {
                        foundStarMap = getOwn(starMap, nameSegment);
                        starI = i;
                    }
                }

                if (!foundMap && foundStarMap) {
                    foundMap = foundStarMap;
                    foundI = starI;
                }

                if (foundMap) {
                    nameParts.splice(0, foundI, foundMap);
                    name = nameParts.join('/');
                }
            }

            // If the name points to a package's name, use
            // the package main instead.
            pkgMain = getOwn(config.pkgs, name);

            return pkgMain ? pkgMain : name;
        }

        function removeScript(name) {
            if (isBrowser) {
                each(scripts(), function (scriptNode) {
                    if (scriptNode.getAttribute('data-requiremodule') === name &&
                            scriptNode.getAttribute('data-requirecontext') === context.contextName) {
                        scriptNode.parentNode.removeChild(scriptNode);
                        return true;
                    }
                });
            }
        }

        function hasPathFallback(id) {
            var pathConfig = getOwn(config.paths, id);
            if (pathConfig && isArray(pathConfig) && pathConfig.length > 1) {
                //Pop off the first array value, since it failed, and
                //retry
                pathConfig.shift();
                context.require.undef(id);

                //Custom require that does not do map translation, since
                //ID is "absolute", already mapped/resolved.
                context.makeRequire(null, {
                    skipMap: true
                })([id]);

                return true;
            }
        }

        //Turns a plugin!resource to [plugin, resource]
        //with the plugin being undefined if the name
        //did not have a plugin prefix.
        function splitPrefix(name) {
            var prefix,
                index = name ? name.indexOf('!') : -1;
            if (index > -1) {
                prefix = name.substring(0, index);
                name = name.substring(index + 1, name.length);
            }
            return [prefix, name];
        }

        /**
         * Creates a module mapping that includes plugin prefix, module
         * name, and path. If parentModuleMap is provided it will
         * also normalize the name via require.normalize()
         *
         * @param {String} name the module name
         * @param {String} [parentModuleMap] parent module map
         * for the module name, used to resolve relative names.
         * @param {Boolean} isNormalized: is the ID already normalized.
         * This is true if this call is done for a define() module ID.
         * @param {Boolean} applyMap: apply the map config to the ID.
         * Should only be true if this map is for a dependency.
         *
         * @returns {Object}
         */
        function makeModuleMap(name, parentModuleMap, isNormalized, applyMap) {
            var url, pluginModule, suffix, nameParts,
                prefix = null,
                parentName = parentModuleMap ? parentModuleMap.name : null,
                originalName = name,
                isDefine = true,
                normalizedName = '';

            //If no name, then it means it is a require call, generate an
            //internal name.
            if (!name) {
                isDefine = false;
                name = '_@r' + (requireCounter += 1);
            }

            nameParts = splitPrefix(name);
            prefix = nameParts[0];
            name = nameParts[1];

            if (prefix) {
                prefix = normalize(prefix, parentName, applyMap);
                pluginModule = getOwn(defined, prefix);
            }

            //Account for relative paths if there is a base name.
            if (name) {
                if (prefix) {
                    if (pluginModule && pluginModule.normalize) {
                        //Plugin is loaded, use its normalize method.
                        normalizedName = pluginModule.normalize(name, function (name) {
                            return normalize(name, parentName, applyMap);
                        });
                    } else {
                        // If nested plugin references, then do not try to
                        // normalize, as it will not normalize correctly. This
                        // places a restriction on resourceIds, and the longer
                        // term solution is not to normalize until plugins are
                        // loaded and all normalizations to allow for async
                        // loading of a loader plugin. But for now, fixes the
                        // common uses. Details in #1131
                        normalizedName = name.indexOf('!') === -1 ?
                                         normalize(name, parentName, applyMap) :
                                         name;
                    }
                } else {
                    //A regular module.
                    normalizedName = normalize(name, parentName, applyMap);

                    //Normalized name may be a plugin ID due to map config
                    //application in normalize. The map config values must
                    //already be normalized, so do not need to redo that part.
                    nameParts = splitPrefix(normalizedName);
                    prefix = nameParts[0];
                    normalizedName = nameParts[1];
                    isNormalized = true;

                    url = context.nameToUrl(normalizedName);
                }
            }

            //If the id is a plugin id that cannot be determined if it needs
            //normalization, stamp it with a unique ID so two matching relative
            //ids that may conflict can be separate.
            suffix = prefix && !pluginModule && !isNormalized ?
                     '_unnormalized' + (unnormalizedCounter += 1) :
                     '';

            return {
                prefix: prefix,
                name: normalizedName,
                parentMap: parentModuleMap,
                unnormalized: !!suffix,
                url: url,
                originalName: originalName,
                isDefine: isDefine,
                id: (prefix ?
                        prefix + '!' + normalizedName :
                        normalizedName) + suffix
            };
        }

        function getModule(depMap) {
            var id = depMap.id,
                mod = getOwn(registry, id);

            if (!mod) {
                mod = registry[id] = new context.Module(depMap);
            }

            return mod;
        }

        function on(depMap, name, fn) {
            var id = depMap.id,
                mod = getOwn(registry, id);

            if (hasProp(defined, id) &&
                    (!mod || mod.defineEmitComplete)) {
                if (name === 'defined') {
                    fn(defined[id]);
                }
            } else {
                mod = getModule(depMap);
                if (mod.error && name === 'error') {
                    fn(mod.error);
                } else {
                    mod.on(name, fn);
                }
            }
        }

        function onError(err, errback) {
            var ids = err.requireModules,
                notified = false;

            if (errback) {
                errback(err);
            } else {
                each(ids, function (id) {
                    var mod = getOwn(registry, id);
                    if (mod) {
                        //Set error on module, so it skips timeout checks.
                        mod.error = err;
                        if (mod.events.error) {
                            notified = true;
                            mod.emit('error', err);
                        }
                    }
                });

                if (!notified) {
                    req.onError(err);
                }
            }
        }

        /**
         * Internal method to transfer globalQueue items to this context's
         * defQueue.
         */
        function takeGlobalQueue() {
            //Push all the globalDefQueue items into the context's defQueue
            if (globalDefQueue.length) {
                each(globalDefQueue, function(queueItem) {
                    var id = queueItem[0];
                    if (typeof id === 'string') {
                        context.defQueueMap[id] = true;
                    }
                    defQueue.push(queueItem);
                });
                globalDefQueue = [];
            }
        }

        handlers = {
            'require': function (mod) {
                if (mod.require) {
                    return mod.require;
                } else {
                    return (mod.require = context.makeRequire(mod.map));
                }
            },
            'exports': function (mod) {
                mod.usingExports = true;
                if (mod.map.isDefine) {
                    if (mod.exports) {
                        return (defined[mod.map.id] = mod.exports);
                    } else {
                        return (mod.exports = defined[mod.map.id] = {});
                    }
                }
            },
            'module': function (mod) {
                if (mod.module) {
                    return mod.module;
                } else {
                    return (mod.module = {
                        id: mod.map.id,
                        uri: mod.map.url,
                        config: function () {
                            return getOwn(config.config, mod.map.id) || {};
                        },
                        exports: mod.exports || (mod.exports = {})
                    });
                }
            }
        };

        function cleanRegistry(id) {
            //Clean up machinery used for waiting modules.
            delete registry[id];
            delete enabledRegistry[id];
        }

        function breakCycle(mod, traced, processed) {
            var id = mod.map.id;

            if (mod.error) {
                mod.emit('error', mod.error);
            } else {
                traced[id] = true;
                each(mod.depMaps, function (depMap, i) {
                    var depId = depMap.id,
                        dep = getOwn(registry, depId);

                    //Only force things that have not completed
                    //being defined, so still in the registry,
                    //and only if it has not been matched up
                    //in the module already.
                    if (dep && !mod.depMatched[i] && !processed[depId]) {
                        if (getOwn(traced, depId)) {
                            mod.defineDep(i, defined[depId]);
                            mod.check(); //pass false?
                        } else {
                            breakCycle(dep, traced, processed);
                        }
                    }
                });
                processed[id] = true;
            }
        }

        function checkLoaded() {
            var err, usingPathFallback,
                waitInterval = config.waitSeconds * 1000,
                //It is possible to disable the wait interval by using waitSeconds of 0.
                expired = waitInterval && (context.startTime + waitInterval) < new Date().getTime(),
                noLoads = [],
                reqCalls = [],
                stillLoading = false,
                needCycleCheck = true;

            //Do not bother if this call was a result of a cycle break.
            if (inCheckLoaded) {
                return;
            }

            inCheckLoaded = true;

            //Figure out the state of all the modules.
            eachProp(enabledRegistry, function (mod) {
                var map = mod.map,
                    modId = map.id;

                //Skip things that are not enabled or in error state.
                if (!mod.enabled) {
                    return;
                }

                if (!map.isDefine) {
                    reqCalls.push(mod);
                }

                if (!mod.error) {
                    //If the module should be executed, and it has not
                    //been inited and time is up, remember it.
                    if (!mod.inited && expired) {
                        if (hasPathFallback(modId)) {
                            usingPathFallback = true;
                            stillLoading = true;
                        } else {
                            noLoads.push(modId);
                            removeScript(modId);
                        }
                    } else if (!mod.inited && mod.fetched && map.isDefine) {
                        stillLoading = true;
                        if (!map.prefix) {
                            //No reason to keep looking for unfinished
                            //loading. If the only stillLoading is a
                            //plugin resource though, keep going,
                            //because it may be that a plugin resource
                            //is waiting on a non-plugin cycle.
                            return (needCycleCheck = false);
                        }
                    }
                }
            });

            if (expired && noLoads.length) {
                //If wait time expired, throw error of unloaded modules.
                err = makeError('timeout', 'Load timeout for modules: ' + noLoads, null, noLoads);
                err.contextName = context.contextName;
                return onError(err);
            }

            //Not expired, check for a cycle.
            if (needCycleCheck) {
                each(reqCalls, function (mod) {
                    breakCycle(mod, {}, {});
                });
            }

            //If still waiting on loads, and the waiting load is something
            //other than a plugin resource, or there are still outstanding
            //scripts, then just try back later.
            if ((!expired || usingPathFallback) && stillLoading) {
                //Something is still waiting to load. Wait for it, but only
                //if a timeout is not already in effect.
                if ((isBrowser || isWebWorker) && !checkLoadedTimeoutId) {
                    checkLoadedTimeoutId = setTimeout(function () {
                        checkLoadedTimeoutId = 0;
                        checkLoaded();
                    }, 50);
                }
            }

            inCheckLoaded = false;
        }

        Module = function (map) {
            this.events = getOwn(undefEvents, map.id) || {};
            this.map = map;
            this.shim = getOwn(config.shim, map.id);
            this.depExports = [];
            this.depMaps = [];
            this.depMatched = [];
            this.pluginMaps = {};
            this.depCount = 0;

            /* this.exports this.factory
               this.depMaps = [],
               this.enabled, this.fetched
            */
        };

        Module.prototype = {
            init: function (depMaps, factory, errback, options) {
                options = options || {};

                //Do not do more inits if already done. Can happen if there
                //are multiple define calls for the same module. That is not
                //a normal, common case, but it is also not unexpected.
                if (this.inited) {
                    return;
                }

                this.factory = factory;

                if (errback) {
                    //Register for errors on this module.
                    this.on('error', errback);
                } else if (this.events.error) {
                    //If no errback already, but there are error listeners
                    //on this module, set up an errback to pass to the deps.
                    errback = bind(this, function (err) {
                        this.emit('error', err);
                    });
                }

                //Do a copy of the dependency array, so that
                //source inputs are not modified. For example
                //"shim" deps are passed in here directly, and
                //doing a direct modification of the depMaps array
                //would affect that config.
                this.depMaps = depMaps && depMaps.slice(0);

                this.errback = errback;

                //Indicate this module has be initialized
                this.inited = true;

                this.ignore = options.ignore;

                //Could have option to init this module in enabled mode,
                //or could have been previously marked as enabled. However,
                //the dependencies are not known until init is called. So
                //if enabled previously, now trigger dependencies as enabled.
                if (options.enabled || this.enabled) {
                    //Enable this module and dependencies.
                    //Will call this.check()
                    this.enable();
                } else {
                    this.check();
                }
            },

            defineDep: function (i, depExports) {
                //Because of cycles, defined callback for a given
                //export can be called more than once.
                if (!this.depMatched[i]) {
                    this.depMatched[i] = true;
                    this.depCount -= 1;
                    this.depExports[i] = depExports;
                }
            },

            fetch: function () {
                if (this.fetched) {
                    return;
                }
                this.fetched = true;

                context.startTime = (new Date()).getTime();

                var map = this.map;

                //If the manager is for a plugin managed resource,
                //ask the plugin to load it now.
                if (this.shim) {
                    context.makeRequire(this.map, {
                        enableBuildCallback: true
                    })(this.shim.deps || [], bind(this, function () {
                        return map.prefix ? this.callPlugin() : this.load();
                    }));
                } else {
                    //Regular dependency.
                    return map.prefix ? this.callPlugin() : this.load();
                }
            },

            load: function () {
                var url = this.map.url;

                //Regular dependency.
                if (!urlFetched[url]) {
                    urlFetched[url] = true;
                    context.load(this.map.id, url);
                }
            },

            /**
             * Checks if the module is ready to define itself, and if so,
             * define it.
             */
            check: function () {
                if (!this.enabled || this.enabling) {
                    return;
                }

                var err, cjsModule,
                    id = this.map.id,
                    depExports = this.depExports,
                    exports = this.exports,
                    factory = this.factory;

                if (!this.inited) {
                    // Only fetch if not already in the defQueue.
                    if (!hasProp(context.defQueueMap, id)) {
                        this.fetch();
                    }
                } else if (this.error) {
                    this.emit('error', this.error);
                } else if (!this.defining) {
                    //The factory could trigger another require call
                    //that would result in checking this module to
                    //define itself again. If already in the process
                    //of doing that, skip this work.
                    this.defining = true;

                    if (this.depCount < 1 && !this.defined) {
                        if (isFunction(factory)) {
                            try {
                                exports = context.execCb(id, factory, depExports, exports);
                            } catch (e) {
                                err = e;
                            }

                            // Favor return value over exports. If node/cjs in play,
                            // then will not have a return value anyway. Favor
                            // module.exports assignment over exports object.
                            if (this.map.isDefine && exports === undefined) {
                                cjsModule = this.module;
                                if (cjsModule) {
                                    exports = cjsModule.exports;
                                } else if (this.usingExports) {
                                    //exports already set the defined value.
                                    exports = this.exports;
                                }
                            }

                            if (err) {
                                // If there is an error listener, favor passing
                                // to that instead of throwing an error. However,
                                // only do it for define()'d  modules. require
                                // errbacks should not be called for failures in
                                // their callbacks (#699). However if a global
                                // onError is set, use that.
                                if ((this.events.error && this.map.isDefine) ||
                                    req.onError !== defaultOnError) {
                                    err.requireMap = this.map;
                                    err.requireModules = this.map.isDefine ? [this.map.id] : null;
                                    err.requireType = this.map.isDefine ? 'define' : 'require';
                                    return onError((this.error = err));
                                } else if (typeof console !== 'undefined' &&
                                           console.error) {
                                    // Log the error for debugging. If promises could be
                                    // used, this would be different, but making do.
                                    console.error(err);
                                } else {
                                    // Do not want to completely lose the error. While this
                                    // will mess up processing and lead to similar results
                                    // as bug 1440, it at least surfaces the error.
                                    req.onError(err);
                                }
                            }
                        } else {
                            //Just a literal value
                            exports = factory;
                        }

                        this.exports = exports;

                        if (this.map.isDefine && !this.ignore) {
                            defined[id] = exports;

                            if (req.onResourceLoad) {
                                var resLoadMaps = [];
                                each(this.depMaps, function (depMap) {
                                    resLoadMaps.push(depMap.normalizedMap || depMap);
                                });
                                req.onResourceLoad(context, this.map, resLoadMaps);
                            }
                        }

                        //Clean up
                        cleanRegistry(id);

                        this.defined = true;
                    }

                    //Finished the define stage. Allow calling check again
                    //to allow define notifications below in the case of a
                    //cycle.
                    this.defining = false;

                    if (this.defined && !this.defineEmitted) {
                        this.defineEmitted = true;
                        this.emit('defined', this.exports);
                        this.defineEmitComplete = true;
                    }

                }
            },

            callPlugin: function () {
                var map = this.map,
                    id = map.id,
                    //Map already normalized the prefix.
                    pluginMap = makeModuleMap(map.prefix);

                //Mark this as a dependency for this plugin, so it
                //can be traced for cycles.
                this.depMaps.push(pluginMap);

                on(pluginMap, 'defined', bind(this, function (plugin) {
                    var load, normalizedMap, normalizedMod,
                        bundleId = getOwn(bundlesMap, this.map.id),
                        name = this.map.name,
                        parentName = this.map.parentMap ? this.map.parentMap.name : null,
                        localRequire = context.makeRequire(map.parentMap, {
                            enableBuildCallback: true
                        });

                    //If current map is not normalized, wait for that
                    //normalized name to load instead of continuing.
                    if (this.map.unnormalized) {
                        //Normalize the ID if the plugin allows it.
                        if (plugin.normalize) {
                            name = plugin.normalize(name, function (name) {
                                return normalize(name, parentName, true);
                            }) || '';
                        }

                        //prefix and name should already be normalized, no need
                        //for applying map config again either.
                        normalizedMap = makeModuleMap(map.prefix + '!' + name,
                                                      this.map.parentMap);
                        on(normalizedMap,
                            'defined', bind(this, function (value) {
                                this.map.normalizedMap = normalizedMap;
                                this.init([], function () { return value; }, null, {
                                    enabled: true,
                                    ignore: true
                                });
                            }));

                        normalizedMod = getOwn(registry, normalizedMap.id);
                        if (normalizedMod) {
                            //Mark this as a dependency for this plugin, so it
                            //can be traced for cycles.
                            this.depMaps.push(normalizedMap);

                            if (this.events.error) {
                                normalizedMod.on('error', bind(this, function (err) {
                                    this.emit('error', err);
                                }));
                            }
                            normalizedMod.enable();
                        }

                        return;
                    }

                    //If a paths config, then just load that file instead to
                    //resolve the plugin, as it is built into that paths layer.
                    if (bundleId) {
                        this.map.url = context.nameToUrl(bundleId);
                        this.load();
                        return;
                    }

                    load = bind(this, function (value) {
                        this.init([], function () { return value; }, null, {
                            enabled: true
                        });
                    });

                    load.error = bind(this, function (err) {
                        this.inited = true;
                        this.error = err;
                        err.requireModules = [id];

                        //Remove temp unnormalized modules for this module,
                        //since they will never be resolved otherwise now.
                        eachProp(registry, function (mod) {
                            if (mod.map.id.indexOf(id + '_unnormalized') === 0) {
                                cleanRegistry(mod.map.id);
                            }
                        });

                        onError(err);
                    });

                    //Allow plugins to load other code without having to know the
                    //context or how to 'complete' the load.
                    load.fromText = bind(this, function (text, textAlt) {
                        /*jslint evil: true */
                        var moduleName = map.name,
                            moduleMap = makeModuleMap(moduleName),
                            hasInteractive = useInteractive;

                        //As of 2.1.0, support just passing the text, to reinforce
                        //fromText only being called once per resource. Still
                        //support old style of passing moduleName but discard
                        //that moduleName in favor of the internal ref.
                        if (textAlt) {
                            text = textAlt;
                        }

                        //Turn off interactive script matching for IE for any define
                        //calls in the text, then turn it back on at the end.
                        if (hasInteractive) {
                            useInteractive = false;
                        }

                        //Prime the system by creating a module instance for
                        //it.
                        getModule(moduleMap);

                        //Transfer any config to this other module.
                        if (hasProp(config.config, id)) {
                            config.config[moduleName] = config.config[id];
                        }

                        try {
                            req.exec(text);
                        } catch (e) {
                            return onError(makeError('fromtexteval',
                                             'fromText eval for ' + id +
                                            ' failed: ' + e,
                                             e,
                                             [id]));
                        }

                        if (hasInteractive) {
                            useInteractive = true;
                        }

                        //Mark this as a dependency for the plugin
                        //resource
                        this.depMaps.push(moduleMap);

                        //Support anonymous modules.
                        context.completeLoad(moduleName);

                        //Bind the value of that module to the value for this
                        //resource ID.
                        localRequire([moduleName], load);
                    });

                    //Use parentName here since the plugin's name is not reliable,
                    //could be some weird string with no path that actually wants to
                    //reference the parentName's path.
                    plugin.load(map.name, localRequire, load, config);
                }));

                context.enable(pluginMap, this);
                this.pluginMaps[pluginMap.id] = pluginMap;
            },

            enable: function () {
                enabledRegistry[this.map.id] = this;
                this.enabled = true;

                //Set flag mentioning that the module is enabling,
                //so that immediate calls to the defined callbacks
                //for dependencies do not trigger inadvertent load
                //with the depCount still being zero.
                this.enabling = true;

                //Enable each dependency
                each(this.depMaps, bind(this, function (depMap, i) {
                    var id, mod, handler;

                    if (typeof depMap === 'string') {
                        //Dependency needs to be converted to a depMap
                        //and wired up to this module.
                        depMap = makeModuleMap(depMap,
                                               (this.map.isDefine ? this.map : this.map.parentMap),
                                               false,
                                               !this.skipMap);
                        this.depMaps[i] = depMap;

                        handler = getOwn(handlers, depMap.id);

                        if (handler) {
                            this.depExports[i] = handler(this);
                            return;
                        }

                        this.depCount += 1;

                        on(depMap, 'defined', bind(this, function (depExports) {
                            if (this.undefed) {
                                return;
                            }
                            this.defineDep(i, depExports);
                            this.check();
                        }));

                        if (this.errback) {
                            on(depMap, 'error', bind(this, this.errback));
                        } else if (this.events.error) {
                            // No direct errback on this module, but something
                            // else is listening for errors, so be sure to
                            // propagate the error correctly.
                            on(depMap, 'error', bind(this, function(err) {
                                this.emit('error', err);
                            }));
                        }
                    }

                    id = depMap.id;
                    mod = registry[id];

                    //Skip special modules like 'require', 'exports', 'module'
                    //Also, don't call enable if it is already enabled,
                    //important in circular dependency cases.
                    if (!hasProp(handlers, id) && mod && !mod.enabled) {
                        context.enable(depMap, this);
                    }
                }));

                //Enable each plugin that is used in
                //a dependency
                eachProp(this.pluginMaps, bind(this, function (pluginMap) {
                    var mod = getOwn(registry, pluginMap.id);
                    if (mod && !mod.enabled) {
                        context.enable(pluginMap, this);
                    }
                }));

                this.enabling = false;

                this.check();
            },

            on: function (name, cb) {
                var cbs = this.events[name];
                if (!cbs) {
                    cbs = this.events[name] = [];
                }
                cbs.push(cb);
            },

            emit: function (name, evt) {
                each(this.events[name], function (cb) {
                    cb(evt);
                });
                if (name === 'error') {
                    //Now that the error handler was triggered, remove
                    //the listeners, since this broken Module instance
                    //can stay around for a while in the registry.
                    delete this.events[name];
                }
            }
        };

        function callGetModule(args) {
            //Skip modules already defined.
            if (!hasProp(defined, args[0])) {
                getModule(makeModuleMap(args[0], null, true)).init(args[1], args[2]);
            }
        }

        function removeListener(node, func, name, ieName) {
            //Favor detachEvent because of IE9
            //issue, see attachEvent/addEventListener comment elsewhere
            //in this file.
            if (node.detachEvent && !isOpera) {
                //Probably IE. If not it will throw an error, which will be
                //useful to know.
                if (ieName) {
                    node.detachEvent(ieName, func);
                }
            } else {
                node.removeEventListener(name, func, false);
            }
        }

        /**
         * Given an event from a script node, get the requirejs info from it,
         * and then removes the event listeners on the node.
         * @param {Event} evt
         * @returns {Object}
         */
        function getScriptData(evt) {
            //Using currentTarget instead of target for Firefox 2.0's sake. Not
            //all old browsers will be supported, but this one was easy enough
            //to support and still makes sense.
            var node = evt.currentTarget || evt.srcElement;

            //Remove the listeners once here.
            removeListener(node, context.onScriptLoad, 'load', 'onreadystatechange');
            removeListener(node, context.onScriptError, 'error');

            return {
                node: node,
                id: node && node.getAttribute('data-requiremodule')
            };
        }

        function intakeDefines() {
            var args;

            //Any defined modules in the global queue, intake them now.
            takeGlobalQueue();

            //Make sure any remaining defQueue items get properly processed.
            while (defQueue.length) {
                args = defQueue.shift();
                if (args[0] === null) {
                    return onError(makeError('mismatch', 'Mismatched anonymous define() module: ' +
                        args[args.length - 1]));
                } else {
                    //args are id, deps, factory. Should be normalized by the
                    //define() function.
                    callGetModule(args);
                }
            }
            context.defQueueMap = {};
        }

        context = {
            config: config,
            contextName: contextName,
            registry: registry,
            defined: defined,
            urlFetched: urlFetched,
            defQueue: defQueue,
            defQueueMap: {},
            Module: Module,
            makeModuleMap: makeModuleMap,
            nextTick: req.nextTick,
            onError: onError,

            /**
             * Set a configuration for the context.
             * @param {Object} cfg config object to integrate.
             */
            configure: function (cfg) {
                //Make sure the baseUrl ends in a slash.
                if (cfg.baseUrl) {
                    if (cfg.baseUrl.charAt(cfg.baseUrl.length - 1) !== '/') {
                        cfg.baseUrl += '/';
                    }
                }

                //Save off the paths since they require special processing,
                //they are additive.
                var shim = config.shim,
                    objs = {
                        paths: true,
                        bundles: true,
                        config: true,
                        map: true
                    };

                eachProp(cfg, function (value, prop) {
                    if (objs[prop]) {
                        if (!config[prop]) {
                            config[prop] = {};
                        }
                        mixin(config[prop], value, true, true);
                    } else {
                        config[prop] = value;
                    }
                });

                //Reverse map the bundles
                if (cfg.bundles) {
                    eachProp(cfg.bundles, function (value, prop) {
                        each(value, function (v) {
                            if (v !== prop) {
                                bundlesMap[v] = prop;
                            }
                        });
                    });
                }

                //Merge shim
                if (cfg.shim) {
                    eachProp(cfg.shim, function (value, id) {
                        //Normalize the structure
                        if (isArray(value)) {
                            value = {
                                deps: value
                            };
                        }
                        if ((value.exports || value.init) && !value.exportsFn) {
                            value.exportsFn = context.makeShimExports(value);
                        }
                        shim[id] = value;
                    });
                    config.shim = shim;
                }

                //Adjust packages if necessary.
                if (cfg.packages) {
                    each(cfg.packages, function (pkgObj) {
                        var location, name;

                        pkgObj = typeof pkgObj === 'string' ? {name: pkgObj} : pkgObj;

                        name = pkgObj.name;
                        location = pkgObj.location;
                        if (location) {
                            config.paths[name] = pkgObj.location;
                        }

                        //Save pointer to main module ID for pkg name.
                        //Remove leading dot in main, so main paths are normalized,
                        //and remove any trailing .js, since different package
                        //envs have different conventions: some use a module name,
                        //some use a file name.
                        config.pkgs[name] = pkgObj.name + '/' + (pkgObj.main || 'main')
                                     .replace(currDirRegExp, '')
                                     .replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');
                    });
                }

                //If there are any "waiting to execute" modules in the registry,
                //update the maps for them, since their info, like URLs to load,
                //may have changed.
                eachProp(registry, function (mod, id) {
                    //If module already has init called, since it is too
                    //late to modify them, and ignore unnormalized ones
                    //since they are transient.
                    if (!mod.inited && !mod.map.unnormalized) {
                        mod.map = makeModuleMap(id, null, true);
                    }
                });

                //If a deps array or a config callback is specified, then call
                //require with those args. This is useful when require is defined as a
                //config object before require.js is loaded.
                if (cfg.deps || cfg.callback) {
                    context.require(cfg.deps || [], cfg.callback);
                }
            },

            makeShimExports: function (value) {
                function fn() {
                    var ret;
                    if (value.init) {
                        ret = value.init.apply(global, arguments);
                    }
                    return ret || (value.exports && getGlobal(value.exports));
                }
                return fn;
            },

            makeRequire: function (relMap, options) {
                options = options || {};

                function localRequire(deps, callback, errback) {
                    var id, map, requireMod;

                    if (options.enableBuildCallback && callback && isFunction(callback)) {
                        callback.__requireJsBuild = true;
                    }

                    if (typeof deps === 'string') {
                        if (isFunction(callback)) {
                            //Invalid call
                            return onError(makeError('requireargs', 'Invalid require call'), errback);
                        }

                        //If require|exports|module are requested, get the
                        //value for them from the special handlers. Caveat:
                        //this only works while module is being defined.
                        if (relMap && hasProp(handlers, deps)) {
                            return handlers[deps](registry[relMap.id]);
                        }

                        //Synchronous access to one module. If require.get is
                        //available (as in the Node adapter), prefer that.
                        if (req.get) {
                            return req.get(context, deps, relMap, localRequire);
                        }

                        //Normalize module name, if it contains . or ..
                        map = makeModuleMap(deps, relMap, false, true);
                        id = map.id;

                        if (!hasProp(defined, id)) {
                            return onError(makeError('notloaded', 'Module name "' +
                                        id +
                                        '" has not been loaded yet for context: ' +
                                        contextName +
                                        (relMap ? '' : '. Use require([])')));
                        }
                        return defined[id];
                    }

                    //Grab defines waiting in the global queue.
                    intakeDefines();

                    //Mark all the dependencies as needing to be loaded.
                    context.nextTick(function () {
                        //Some defines could have been added since the
                        //require call, collect them.
                        intakeDefines();

                        requireMod = getModule(makeModuleMap(null, relMap));

                        //Store if map config should be applied to this require
                        //call for dependencies.
                        requireMod.skipMap = options.skipMap;

                        requireMod.init(deps, callback, errback, {
                            enabled: true
                        });

                        checkLoaded();
                    });

                    return localRequire;
                }

                mixin(localRequire, {
                    isBrowser: isBrowser,

                    /**
                     * Converts a module name + .extension into an URL path.
                     * *Requires* the use of a module name. It does not support using
                     * plain URLs like nameToUrl.
                     */
                    toUrl: function (moduleNamePlusExt) {
                        var ext,
                            index = moduleNamePlusExt.lastIndexOf('.'),
                            segment = moduleNamePlusExt.split('/')[0],
                            isRelative = segment === '.' || segment === '..';

                        //Have a file extension alias, and it is not the
                        //dots from a relative path.
                        if (index !== -1 && (!isRelative || index > 1)) {
                            ext = moduleNamePlusExt.substring(index, moduleNamePlusExt.length);
                            moduleNamePlusExt = moduleNamePlusExt.substring(0, index);
                        }

                        return context.nameToUrl(normalize(moduleNamePlusExt,
                                                relMap && relMap.id, true), ext,  true);
                    },

                    defined: function (id) {
                        return hasProp(defined, makeModuleMap(id, relMap, false, true).id);
                    },

                    specified: function (id) {
                        id = makeModuleMap(id, relMap, false, true).id;
                        return hasProp(defined, id) || hasProp(registry, id);
                    }
                });

                //Only allow undef on top level require calls
                if (!relMap) {
                    localRequire.undef = function (id) {
                        //Bind any waiting define() calls to this context,
                        //fix for #408
                        takeGlobalQueue();

                        var map = makeModuleMap(id, relMap, true),
                            mod = getOwn(registry, id);

                        mod.undefed = true;
                        removeScript(id);

                        delete defined[id];
                        delete urlFetched[map.url];
                        delete undefEvents[id];

                        //Clean queued defines too. Go backwards
                        //in array so that the splices do not
                        //mess up the iteration.
                        eachReverse(defQueue, function(args, i) {
                            if (args[0] === id) {
                                defQueue.splice(i, 1);
                            }
                        });
                        delete context.defQueueMap[id];

                        if (mod) {
                            //Hold on to listeners in case the
                            //module will be attempted to be reloaded
                            //using a different config.
                            if (mod.events.defined) {
                                undefEvents[id] = mod.events;
                            }

                            cleanRegistry(id);
                        }
                    };
                }

                return localRequire;
            },

            /**
             * Called to enable a module if it is still in the registry
             * awaiting enablement. A second arg, parent, the parent module,
             * is passed in for context, when this method is overridden by
             * the optimizer. Not shown here to keep code compact.
             */
            enable: function (depMap) {
                var mod = getOwn(registry, depMap.id);
                if (mod) {
                    getModule(depMap).enable();
                }
            },

            /**
             * Internal method used by environment adapters to complete a load event.
             * A load event could be a script load or just a load pass from a synchronous
             * load call.
             * @param {String} moduleName the name of the module to potentially complete.
             */
            completeLoad: function (moduleName) {
                var found, args, mod,
                    shim = getOwn(config.shim, moduleName) || {},
                    shExports = shim.exports;

                takeGlobalQueue();

                while (defQueue.length) {
                    args = defQueue.shift();
                    if (args[0] === null) {
                        args[0] = moduleName;
                        //If already found an anonymous module and bound it
                        //to this name, then this is some other anon module
                        //waiting for its completeLoad to fire.
                        if (found) {
                            break;
                        }
                        found = true;
                    } else if (args[0] === moduleName) {
                        //Found matching define call for this script!
                        found = true;
                    }

                    callGetModule(args);
                }
                context.defQueueMap = {};

                //Do this after the cycle of callGetModule in case the result
                //of those calls/init calls changes the registry.
                mod = getOwn(registry, moduleName);

                if (!found && !hasProp(defined, moduleName) && mod && !mod.inited) {
                    if (config.enforceDefine && (!shExports || !getGlobal(shExports))) {
                        if (hasPathFallback(moduleName)) {
                            return;
                        } else {
                            return onError(makeError('nodefine',
                                             'No define call for ' + moduleName,
                                             null,
                                             [moduleName]));
                        }
                    } else {
                        //A script that does not call define(), so just simulate
                        //the call for it.
                        callGetModule([moduleName, (shim.deps || []), shim.exportsFn]);
                    }
                }

                checkLoaded();
            },

            /**
             * Converts a module name to a file path. Supports cases where
             * moduleName may actually be just an URL.
             * Note that it **does not** call normalize on the moduleName,
             * it is assumed to have already been normalized. This is an
             * internal API, not a public one. Use toUrl for the public API.
             */
            nameToUrl: function (moduleName, ext, skipExt) {
                var paths, syms, i, parentModule, url,
                    parentPath, bundleId,
                    pkgMain = getOwn(config.pkgs, moduleName);

                if (pkgMain) {
                    moduleName = pkgMain;
                }

                bundleId = getOwn(bundlesMap, moduleName);

                if (bundleId) {
                    return context.nameToUrl(bundleId, ext, skipExt);
                }

                //If a colon is in the URL, it indicates a protocol is used and it is just
                //an URL to a file, or if it starts with a slash, contains a query arg (i.e. ?)
                //or ends with .js, then assume the user meant to use an url and not a module id.
                //The slash is important for protocol-less URLs as well as full paths.
                if (req.jsExtRegExp.test(moduleName)) {
                    //Just a plain path, not module name lookup, so just return it.
                    //Add extension if it is included. This is a bit wonky, only non-.js things pass
                    //an extension, this method probably needs to be reworked.
                    url = moduleName + (ext || '');
                } else {
                    //A module that needs to be converted to a path.
                    paths = config.paths;

                    syms = moduleName.split('/');
                    //For each module name segment, see if there is a path
                    //registered for it. Start with most specific name
                    //and work up from it.
                    for (i = syms.length; i > 0; i -= 1) {
                        parentModule = syms.slice(0, i).join('/');

                        parentPath = getOwn(paths, parentModule);
                        if (parentPath) {
                            //If an array, it means there are a few choices,
                            //Choose the one that is desired
                            if (isArray(parentPath)) {
                                parentPath = parentPath[0];
                            }
                            syms.splice(0, i, parentPath);
                            break;
                        }
                    }

                    //Join the path parts together, then figure out if baseUrl is needed.
                    url = syms.join('/');
                    url += (ext || (/^data\:|\?/.test(url) || skipExt ? '' : '.js'));
                    url = (url.charAt(0) === '/' || url.match(/^[\w\+\.\-]+:/) ? '' : config.baseUrl) + url;
                }

                return config.urlArgs ? url +
                                        ((url.indexOf('?') === -1 ? '?' : '&') +
                                         config.urlArgs) : url;
            },

            //Delegates to req.load. Broken out as a separate function to
            //allow overriding in the optimizer.
            load: function (id, url) {
                req.load(context, id, url);
            },

            /**
             * Executes a module callback function. Broken out as a separate function
             * solely to allow the build system to sequence the files in the built
             * layer in the right sequence.
             *
             * @private
             */
            execCb: function (name, callback, args, exports) {
                return callback.apply(exports, args);
            },

            /**
             * callback for script loads, used to check status of loading.
             *
             * @param {Event} evt the event from the browser for the script
             * that was loaded.
             */
            onScriptLoad: function (evt) {
                //Using currentTarget instead of target for Firefox 2.0's sake. Not
                //all old browsers will be supported, but this one was easy enough
                //to support and still makes sense.
                if (evt.type === 'load' ||
                        (readyRegExp.test((evt.currentTarget || evt.srcElement).readyState))) {
                    //Reset interactive script so a script node is not held onto for
                    //to long.
                    interactiveScript = null;

                    //Pull out the name of the module and the context.
                    var data = getScriptData(evt);
                    context.completeLoad(data.id);
                }
            },

            /**
             * Callback for script errors.
             */
            onScriptError: function (evt) {
                var data = getScriptData(evt);
                if (!hasPathFallback(data.id)) {
                    var parents = [];
                    eachProp(registry, function(value, key) {
                        if (key.indexOf('_@r') !== 0) {
                            each(value.depMaps, function(depMap) {
                                if (depMap.id === data.id) {
                                    parents.push(key);
                                }
                                return true;
                            });
                        }
                    });
                    return onError(makeError('scripterror', 'Script error for "' + data.id +
                                             (parents.length ?
                                             '", needed by: ' + parents.join(', ') :
                                             '"'), evt, [data.id]));
                }
            }
        };

        context.require = context.makeRequire();
        return context;
    }

    /**
     * Main entry point.
     *
     * If the only argument to require is a string, then the module that
     * is represented by that string is fetched for the appropriate context.
     *
     * If the first argument is an array, then it will be treated as an array
     * of dependency string names to fetch. An optional function callback can
     * be specified to execute when all of those dependencies are available.
     *
     * Make a local req variable to help Caja compliance (it assumes things
     * on a require that are not standardized), and to give a short
     * name for minification/local scope use.
     */
    req = requirejs = function (deps, callback, errback, optional) {

        //Find the right context, use default
        var context, config,
            contextName = defContextName;

        // Determine if have config object in the call.
        if (!isArray(deps) && typeof deps !== 'string') {
            // deps is a config object
            config = deps;
            if (isArray(callback)) {
                // Adjust args if there are dependencies
                deps = callback;
                callback = errback;
                errback = optional;
            } else {
                deps = [];
            }
        }

        if (config && config.context) {
            contextName = config.context;
        }

        context = getOwn(contexts, contextName);
        if (!context) {
            context = contexts[contextName] = req.s.newContext(contextName);
        }

        if (config) {
            context.configure(config);
        }

        return context.require(deps, callback, errback);
    };

    /**
     * Support require.config() to make it easier to cooperate with other
     * AMD loaders on globally agreed names.
     */
    req.config = function (config) {
        return req(config);
    };

    /**
     * Execute something after the current tick
     * of the event loop. Override for other envs
     * that have a better solution than setTimeout.
     * @param  {Function} fn function to execute later.
     */
    req.nextTick = typeof setTimeout !== 'undefined' ? function (fn) {
        setTimeout(fn, 4);
    } : function (fn) { fn(); };

    /**
     * Export require as a global, but only if it does not already exist.
     */
    if (!require) {
        require = req;
    }

    req.version = version;

    //Used to filter out dependencies that are already paths.
    req.jsExtRegExp = /^\/|:|\?|\.js$/;
    req.isBrowser = isBrowser;
    s = req.s = {
        contexts: contexts,
        newContext: newContext
    };

    //Create default context.
    req({});

    //Exports some context-sensitive methods on global require.
    each([
        'toUrl',
        'undef',
        'defined',
        'specified'
    ], function (prop) {
        //Reference from contexts instead of early binding to default context,
        //so that during builds, the latest instance of the default context
        //with its config gets used.
        req[prop] = function () {
            var ctx = contexts[defContextName];
            return ctx.require[prop].apply(ctx, arguments);
        };
    });

    if (isBrowser) {
        head = s.head = document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0];
        //If BASE tag is in play, using appendChild is a problem for IE6.
        //When that browser dies, this can be removed. Details in this jQuery bug:
        //http://dev.jquery.com/ticket/2709
        baseElement = document.getElementsByTagName('base')[0];
        if (baseElement) {
            head = s.head = baseElement.parentNode;
        }
    }

    /**
     * Any errors that require explicitly generates will be passed to this
     * function. Intercept/override it if you want custom error handling.
     * @param {Error} err the error object.
     */
    req.onError = defaultOnError;

    /**
     * Creates the node for the load command. Only used in browser envs.
     */
    req.createNode = function (config, moduleName, url) {
        var node = config.xhtml ?
                document.createElementNS('http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml', 'html:script') :
                document.createElement('script');
        node.type = config.scriptType || 'text/javascript';
        node.charset = 'utf-8';
        node.async = true;
        return node;
    };

    /**
     * Does the request to load a module for the browser case.
     * Make this a separate function to allow other environments
     * to override it.
     *
     * @param {Object} context the require context to find state.
     * @param {String} moduleName the name of the module.
     * @param {Object} url the URL to the module.
     */
    req.load = function (context, moduleName, url) {
        var config = (context && context.config) || {},
            node;
        if (isBrowser) {
            //In the browser so use a script tag
            node = req.createNode(config, moduleName, url);
            if (config.onNodeCreated) {
                config.onNodeCreated(node, config, moduleName, url);
            }

            node.setAttribute('data-requirecontext', context.contextName);
            node.setAttribute('data-requiremodule', moduleName);

            //Set up load listener. Test attachEvent first because IE9 has
            //a subtle issue in its addEventListener and script onload firings
            //that do not match the behavior of all other browsers with
            //addEventListener support, which fire the onload event for a
            //script right after the script execution. See:
            //https://connect.microsoft.com/IE/feedback/details/648057/script-onload-event-is-not-fired-immediately-after-script-execution
            //UNFORTUNATELY Opera implements attachEvent but does not follow the script
            //script execution mode.
            if (node.attachEvent &&
                    //Check if node.attachEvent is artificially added by custom script or
                    //natively supported by browser
                    //read https://github.com/jrburke/requirejs/issues/187
                    //if we can NOT find [native code] then it must NOT natively supported.
                    //in IE8, node.attachEvent does not have toString()
                    //Note the test for "[native code" with no closing brace, see:
                    //https://github.com/jrburke/requirejs/issues/273
                    !(node.attachEvent.toString && node.attachEvent.toString().indexOf('[native code') < 0) &&
                    !isOpera) {
                //Probably IE. IE (at least 6-8) do not fire
                //script onload right after executing the script, so
                //we cannot tie the anonymous define call to a name.
                //However, IE reports the script as being in 'interactive'
                //readyState at the time of the define call.
                useInteractive = true;

                node.attachEvent('onreadystatechange', context.onScriptLoad);
                //It would be great to add an error handler here to catch
                //404s in IE9+. However, onreadystatechange will fire before
                //the error handler, so that does not help. If addEventListener
                //is used, then IE will fire error before load, but we cannot
                //use that pathway given the connect.microsoft.com issue
                //mentioned above about not doing the 'script execute,
                //then fire the script load event listener before execute
                //next script' that other browsers do.
                //Best hope: IE10 fixes the issues,
                //and then destroys all installs of IE 6-9.
                //node.attachEvent('onerror', context.onScriptError);
            } else {
                node.addEventListener('load', context.onScriptLoad, false);
                node.addEventListener('error', context.onScriptError, false);
            }
            node.src = url;

            //For some cache cases in IE 6-8, the script executes before the end
            //of the appendChild execution, so to tie an anonymous define
            //call to the module name (which is stored on the node), hold on
            //to a reference to this node, but clear after the DOM insertion.
            currentlyAddingScript = node;
            if (baseElement) {
                head.insertBefore(node, baseElement);
            } else {
                head.appendChild(node);
            }
            currentlyAddingScript = null;

            return node;
        } else if (isWebWorker) {
            try {
                //In a web worker, use importScripts. This is not a very
                //efficient use of importScripts, importScripts will block until
                //its script is downloaded and evaluated. However, if web workers
                //are in play, the expectation is that a build has been done so
                //that only one script needs to be loaded anyway. This may need
                //to be reevaluated if other use cases become common.
                importScripts(url);

                //Account for anonymous modules
                context.completeLoad(moduleName);
            } catch (e) {
                context.onError(makeError('importscripts',
                                'importScripts failed for ' +
                                    moduleName + ' at ' + url,
                                e,
                                [moduleName]));
            }
        }
    };

    function getInteractiveScript() {
        if (interactiveScript && interactiveScript.readyState === 'interactive') {
            return interactiveScript;
        }

        eachReverse(scripts(), function (script) {
            if (script.readyState === 'interactive') {
                return (interactiveScript = script);
            }
        });
        return interactiveScript;
    }

    //Look for a data-main script attribute, which could also adjust the baseUrl.
    if (isBrowser && !cfg.skipDataMain) {
        //Figure out baseUrl. Get it from the script tag with require.js in it.
        eachReverse(scripts(), function (script) {
            //Set the 'head' where we can append children by
            //using the script's parent.
            if (!head) {
                head = script.parentNode;
            }

            //Look for a data-main attribute to set main script for the page
            //to load. If it is there, the path to data main becomes the
            //baseUrl, if it is not already set.
            dataMain = script.getAttribute('data-main');
            if (dataMain) {
                //Preserve dataMain in case it is a path (i.e. contains '?')
                mainScript = dataMain;

                //Set final baseUrl if there is not already an explicit one.
                if (!cfg.baseUrl) {
                    //Pull off the directory of data-main for use as the
                    //baseUrl.
                    src = mainScript.split('/');
                    mainScript = src.pop();
                    subPath = src.length ? src.join('/')  + '/' : './';

                    cfg.baseUrl = subPath;
                }

                //Strip off any trailing .js since mainScript is now
                //like a module name.
                mainScript = mainScript.replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');

                //If mainScript is still a path, fall back to dataMain
                if (req.jsExtRegExp.test(mainScript)) {
                    mainScript = dataMain;
                }

                //Put the data-main script in the files to load.
                cfg.deps = cfg.deps ? cfg.deps.concat(mainScript) : [mainScript];

                return true;
            }
        });
    }

    /**
     * The function that handles definitions of modules. Differs from
     * require() in that a string for the module should be the first argument,
     * and the function to execute after dependencies are loaded should
     * return a value to define the module corresponding to the first argument's
     * name.
     */
    define = function (name, deps, callback) {
        var node, context;

        //Allow for anonymous modules
        if (typeof name !== 'string') {
            //Adjust args appropriately
            callback = deps;
            deps = name;
            name = null;
        }

        //This module may not have dependencies
        if (!isArray(deps)) {
            callback = deps;
            deps = null;
        }

        //If no name, and callback is a function, then figure out if it a
        //CommonJS thing with dependencies.
        if (!deps && isFunction(callback)) {
            deps = [];
            //Remove comments from the callback string,
            //look for require calls, and pull them into the dependencies,
            //but only if there are function args.
            if (callback.length) {
                callback
                    .toString()
                    .replace(commentRegExp, '')
                    .replace(cjsRequireRegExp, function (match, dep) {
                        deps.push(dep);
                    });

                //May be a CommonJS thing even without require calls, but still
                //could use exports, and module. Avoid doing exports and module
                //work though if it just needs require.
                //REQUIRES the function to expect the CommonJS variables in the
                //order listed below.
                deps = (callback.length === 1 ? ['require'] : ['require', 'exports', 'module']).concat(deps);
            }
        }

        //If in IE 6-8 and hit an anonymous define() call, do the interactive
        //work.
        if (useInteractive) {
            node = currentlyAddingScript || getInteractiveScript();
            if (node) {
                if (!name) {
                    name = node.getAttribute('data-requiremodule');
                }
                context = contexts[node.getAttribute('data-requirecontext')];
            }
        }

        //Always save off evaluating the def call until the script onload handler.
        //This allows multiple modules to be in a file without prematurely
        //tracing dependencies, and allows for anonymous module support,
        //where the module name is not known until the script onload event
        //occurs. If no context, use the global queue, and get it processed
        //in the onscript load callback.
        if (context) {
            context.defQueue.push([name, deps, callback]);
            context.defQueueMap[name] = true;
        } else {
            globalDefQueue.push([name, deps, callback]);
        }
    };

    define.amd = {
        jQuery: true
    };

    /**
     * Executes the text. Normally just uses eval, but can be modified
     * to use a better, environment-specific call. Only used for transpiling
     * loader plugins, not for plain JS modules.
     * @param {String} text the text to execute/evaluate.
     */
    req.exec = function (text) {
        /*jslint evil: true */
        return eval(text);
    };

    //Set up with config info.
    req(cfg);
}(this));
",
"ok": true,
"headers": [
[
"content-type",
"application/javascript"
]
],
"status": 200,
"status_text": ""
}
},
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 1000
}
},
"source": [
"# You would expect it to perform worse, the other strategy looked into the future\n",
"configure_plotly_browser_state()\n",
"# do LASSO subset selection at each timestep\n",
"backtestmodel = BacktestModel(X, Y,\n",
" create_model=LinearRegression,\n",
" coef_dict_param=\"timestep\", # instead of feeding paper predictors, at each time step perform an online recalculation\n",
" startindex=FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS,\n",
" fit_missing='mean',\n",
" scaler = None)\n",
"backtestmodel.gen_predictions(verbose=False)\n",
"backtestmodel.gen_returns(calc_returns, verbose=False)\n",
"backtestmodel.report_returns(start_date=start_date_str, freq='M')\n",
"backtestmodel.evaluate_predictions()\n",
"backtestmodel.evaluate_quantiles(chart=True, verbose=True)\n",
"perf_LASSO_each_timestep = backtestmodel.cumulative_return\n",
"mychart([perf_LASSO_each_timestep],[\"LASSO each timestep\"], title=\"LASSO each timestep\")\n",
"\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
"text/html": [
"\n",
" <script src=\"/static/components/requirejs/require.js\"></script>\n",
" <script>\n",
" requirejs.config({\n",
" paths: {\n",
" base: '/static/base',\n",
" plotly: 'https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-latest.min.js?noext',\n",
" },\n",
" });\n",
" </script>\n",
" "
],
"text/plain": [
"<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"
]
},
"metadata": {}
},
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"................................................................................\n",
"15:04:12 Still training step 80 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:05:00 Still training step 160 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:05:49 Still training step 240 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:06:39 Still training step 320 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:07:33 Still training step 400 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:08:25 Still training step 480 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:09:17 Still training step 560 of 563\n",
"...\n",
"Mean return: 3.488%\n",
"Monthly Sharpe ratio: 0.653\n",
"OOS MSE across all predictions: 41.6397\n",
"In-sample MSE: 35.6311\n",
"Variance: 39.4097\n",
"R-squared: -0.0566\n",
"Avg rank correlation (Kendall's tau): 0.0322 (Expected: 0)\n",
"5-quintile accuracy: 0.2172 (Expected: 0.2)\n",
"Long/short/flat accuracy: 0.4584 (Expected: 0.44)\n",
"Confusion matrix for quantile 0\n",
"[[10902 2610]\n",
" [ 2606 772]]\n",
"Chi-square: 21.1431 (p-value: 0.00009831)\n",
"Confusion matrix for quantile 1\n",
"[[10842 2670]\n",
" [ 2670 708]]\n",
"Chi-square: 2.4278 (p-value: 0.48847290)\n",
"Confusion matrix for quantile 2\n",
"[[10853 2659]\n",
" [ 2653 725]]\n",
"Chi-square: 5.3864 (p-value: 0.14559227)\n",
"Confusion matrix for quantile 3\n",
"[[10821 2691]\n",
" [ 2696 682]]\n",
"Chi-square: 0.1359 (p-value: 0.98720619)\n",
"Confusion matrix for quantile 4\n",
"[[10920 2592]\n",
" [ 2597 781]]\n",
"Chi-square: 26.1919 (p-value: 0.00000869)\n",
"Excess true positive in quintiles 1 + 5: 201.800000\n"
]
},
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
"image/png": 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N4RERERGJHGrwiIiISMRTl5aIiEi00qBlERERkcihDI+IiEi00qBlERERkcihDI+IiEi00hgeERERkcihDI+IiEi00hgeERERkcihDI+IiEi0UoZHREREJHIowyMiIhKtnAt1BEGjDI+IiIhEPGV4REREopXG8IiIiIhEDmV4REREopUyPCIiIiKRQxkeERGRaKV7aYmIiIhEDjV4REREJOKpS0tERCRaadCyiIiISORQhkdERCRa6dYSIiIiIpFDGR4REZFoFUVjeMK2wXPDoL+FOoSId1tKbKhDiHjP9T8Q6hCiwrXvxYc6hIh3cfNTQh2CyP8kbBs8IiIiEmBRlOHRGB4RERGJeMrwiIiIRCvdWkJEREQkcijDIyIiEqWcV+vwiIiIiEQMZXhERESilWZpiYiIiEQOZXhERESilWZpiYiIiEQONXhEREQk4qlLS0REJFppWrqIiIhI5FCGR0REJFppWrqIiIhI5FCDR0REJFp5vcHbqmFmXc1sVaUt38wmVHp+opk5M2vq3zczm2NmG8zsKzM7+WiXqi4tERERCSnn3DqgJ4CZxQI7gFf8+6nAAGBbpUMGA138Wx/g7/5/q6QMj4iISLRyLnhbzfUHNjrntvr3ZwI3A5VPcj6wwPksAxqaWUp1J1WDR0RERALOzEaZ2YpK26gqql4MPOc/5nxgh3Puyx/UaQ1sr7Sf7i+rkrq0REREolUQZ2k55+YD86urY2bxwDBgspklAbfi6876nynDIyIiIuFiMLDSObcL6AR0AL40sy1AG2ClmbXEN8YntdJxbfxlVVKGR0REJFqF30rLI/B3ZznnVgPNDz7hb/T0cs5lmdlrwHVm9jy+wcp5zrmM6k6sBo+IiIiEnJklA+cA19Sg+iJgCLABKASuPNoBavCIiIhEKxc+Ky075wqAJtU8377SYweM/THn1xgeERERiXjK8IiIiESr8BvDEzDK8IiIiEjEU4NHREREIp66tERERKKUC+LCg6GmDI+IiIhEPGV4REREopUGLYuIiIhEDmV4REREolUYLTwYaMrwiIiISMRThkdERCRaaQyPiIiISORQhkdERCRaaR0eERERkcihDI+IiEi00hgeERERkcihDI+IiEi00jo8IiIiIpFDGR4REZFopTE8IiIiIpFDDR4RERGJeOrSEhERiVJOCw+KiIiIRA5leERERKKVBi2LiIiIRA5leERERKJVFGV41OD5ERLrJ/H7e6+lVddUcI6FN/+d7mf1pN/F/dmXkw/Aa9OeY82SL2jXoxOX/PUaAMzg9Vkv8eWbn4Uy/LDnaZtKoz/f8f1+6xTyH3mSwsVv0fjPd+BJaUlZRiY5t/8Jt28/lpxMoztvxdOiOcTGsv/ZFyl8/Y0QXkHtENOyDUmjb/9+v1kKxa88RUyjpnh69oWyMry7d1L42P1QVICn+8nU+e3V4ImDslKKXpxP+dpVIbyC2iGpfjKj7htLm+PaAo6Hb5rH+pXrADj3D+dz6e1XMqrnZezL3Ue3vmlMemQyu7fvBuCzNz7hn3NeDGH0tUNi/SRG3jua1l3bgnM8cfODpJ3VkzMrfSe/Mu1ZVi/5AoDBY37NmcN/ibfcy3N3Pc6aD78MZfgSZGrw/Ai/nXol33ywikfHzCA2Lpb4xAS6n9WT9x57nXce+fchdXeu2859Q2/BW+6lfrOG3Lb4fla/8zne8ugZEf9jlW3bzp6Ro3w7MTG0fO1Fij9YSr3LRlCy4guyFz5H3ctGUO+yEeQ/+AjJF51P2eYt5Nx0GzENG9DihacofPMdKCsL7YWEOW9mOvunXuvbsRjqzXye0pVLiW2ZSvHLj4LXS53fXk2d80ZQ/NKjePfnUzD7DtzebGJatyd54r3su/Hi0F5ELTBy6v/x5QcrmTV6GrFxHhISEwBonNKUE8/syZ703YfU//azb7j/qntCEWqtNWLqVaz5YBUPjXmA2DgP8YnxpJ3Vk7cfe523HnntkLopndvQe2g/pgy4gYbNG3PjM1O47ezro2qW0hHp1hLyQ3XqJdK5dzc+fuE9AMpLyynKL6yyfmnxgYrGTVxCHM5FT9rwWEjodTJlO3ZSnrmLOmf2o3DRmwAULnqTOmed4avkHJaUBIAlJuLN3wfl5aEKuVbydP8Z3t07cdm7KVvzOfi//Ms2rsUaNQPAu20Dbm+27/GOLRAX78v2SJUS6yVxfJ8TeP/5dwAoLy2jML8AgMunXMWzf30K9JXwP0msl0SX3t346IV3Ad97XN13cs8Bp7L83/+l7EAZWem72b01kw49OwcrXAkDyvDUUNPU5uzPzuey6WNo060d21Zv4qW7ngTg5yMH0ufCs9i6ehP/uHsBRf4vtvY9O3PptNE0bt2Mp26cq+zOj5B4ztkUve1rXMY2boQ3OwcAb3YOsY0bAVDw8qs0mXY3Lf/9EpaURM4dfwI1LH+UuD5nU/rp+4eVx585iNLlSw4r9/Q6E+/WDVBWGoToaq/mqS3Iz87j2unX0657ezat3siCOx8l7Ywe5GRms23tlsOO6XJyV+5dPJPc3Tk8c/eTpK/fHvzAa5GD38lXTh9Larf2bF29kefuegKAX44cxOkX/pwtqzfy4t1PUZhfQKMWjdn0xXcVx+dmZNOoReNQhR8+omgMT9AzPGZ2ZTXPjTKzFWa24pt9m4IZ1lHFxMaSmtaBj55+i7+e+0cOFJUwYPQFfPj0W0w5axx/GXIz+btz+c3tl1ccs2XVBu4eMJFpwyYzcPSv8SToV3GNeDzUOeN0it794MjP+xs1CX1OpXT9RjKH/pbdI/9Aw4nXV2R8pAZiPXh6nkbpZ4e+zwnnXQLl5ZR+8u4h5TGt2lHnt3+g6KmZwYyyVoqNjaFDWifefnoxk4fcSElhMb+54WIuGHsRL8147rD6W77eyLjTR3HL4Bt488lF3PjI5BBEXbvExMbSNq0jS55+iz+dexMlRSUMHv1rljz9JpPPuo67hkwib3cuw28fGepQJUyEokvrrqqecM7Nd871cs716l6vYzBjOqq9mdnszcxmy6oNAKxctIy2aR3Yl5WH8zqccyx9/l3a9+h02LGZG3dQUlhMq+NSgx12rVTntN6UrluPNzcXgPKcXGKa+H6JxTRpTHnuXgCSzx1E0ZKPfHXSd1K+MxNP+7ahCboW8pzUm/Kt63H5eyvK4voNwNOjL4Xz/3pIXWvUlKRxd1H0yH1492QEO9RaJzszm5yMbDauWg/Ap4s+oUNaJ5qlNue+xbOYs3Q+jVOa8JfXZ9CgWUOK9hdRUlgMwKr3P8fj8VCvUb1QXkLYy83MJjczm83+9/jzRctol9aB/Kw8nNeLc44Pn3+HDj183Va5u3Jo1KppxfGNUpqQuysnJLGHE+d1QdtCLSANHjP7qoptNdAiEK8ZaPl78sjdmU3zjikAHN/vRDLWp1O/WcOKOj0H9mbnd740dJM2zYiJ9b29jVs3pUWnVmSn7wl+4LVQ4jm/rOjOAihe+jFJQwYCkDRkIMUf/ReAsl27Seh1MgAxjRrhaZdK+Y6dwQ+4lvphd5Yn7VQSBv+Owjl3wIGS7ysmJpM84R6KX36U8g1rQhBp7ZO3Zy/ZGVmkdGwFQFq/k9j89UauPeUKrj9jFNefMYqcjGxuPfdG8vbspUGl75FOPbpgMca+3H2hCr9WyN+zl5yd2bTwv8fd+p3IzvXph7yXJw/sww7/d/KXb39G76H98MR7aNqmOS3ap7DZ/wNWokOgxvC0AAYCuT8oN+DjAL1mwL145+NcOet6PHEesrbvZsGkBxl+55W06d4enCM7fQ/P3jofgE6nHs+A0RdQXlaO83p54Y7HKNAX2FFZnTrU6X0Ke+/7vttk/4LnaHTPFJKHDqYscxc5t/8JgH1PLKTR7X+k+dOPAkbe3+bjzcsPUeS1THwdPCecQtFTsyqK6lx6HRYXR/Kk+wDfwOXiBbNJ+NUFxLRoRZ1hl8KwSwEomH4Lbt/eI55afJ6c+gjXzb4RT5yHXdt28fCkOVXW7TPkdM65dBDlZeUcKD7AnHHTgxhp7fXcnY/xh1nj8cR52LN9F09M+hsj7ryK1O7twUFW+m4W3vowADvXp7PiPx/zp7dn4S0r55kpj2qGFkTVGB4LxOwhM3sMeMI5t/QIzz3rnLvkaOcY03549PxXCJHbUrJCHULEq3u8JkIGw7Xv1Q11CBEv2TTHJRge3fKyBfP19l1/XtD+1tab85+gXtsPBeQT7Jz7v2qeO2pjR0RERIIgirJc+vkpIiIiEU8NHhEREYl46pQVERGJVlE0aFkZHhEREYl4yvCIiIhEK2V4RERERCKHMjwiIiJRKhBr8YUrZXhEREQk4inDIyIiEq00hkdEREQkcijDIyIiEq2U4RERERGJHMrwiIiIRCmnDI+IiIhI5FCGR0REJFopwyMiIiISOZThERERiVbeUAcQPMrwiIiISEiZWVczW1VpyzezCWZ2v5l9a2ZfmdkrZtaw0jGTzWyDma0zs4FHew01eERERCSknHPrnHM9nXM9gVOAQuAV4G0gzTl3EvAdMBnAzLoDFwMnAIOAB80strrXUJeWiIhIlArTaen9gY3Oua3A1krly4CL/I/PB553zpUAm81sA9Ab+KSqkyrDIyIiIgFnZqPMbEWlbVQVVS8GnjtC+VXAYv/j1sD2Ss+l+8uqpAyPiIhItApihsc5Nx+YX10dM4sHhuHvuqpUfhtQBjzzU19fDR4REREJF4OBlc65XQcLzOwK4Dygv3PuYAttB5Ba6bg2/rIqqUtLREQkWnmDuNXMCCp1Z5nZIOBmYJhzrrBSvdeAi80swcw6AF2A5dWdWBkeERERCTkzSwbOAa6pVDwPSADeNjOAZc65a51za8zsReAbfF1dY51z5dWdXw0eERGRKBVOs7SccwVAkx+Uda6m/j3APTU9v7q0REREJOIpwyMiIhKtdGsJERERkcihDI+IiEiUCqcxPIGmDI+IiIhEPGV4REREopXG8IiIiIhEDmV4REREopRThkdEREQkcqjBIyIiIhFPXVoiIiLRSl1aIiIiIpFDGR4REZEopUHLIiIiIhFEGR4REZFopQyPiIiISORQhkdERCRKaQyPiIiISARRhkdERCRKKcMjIiIiEkGU4REREYlSyvCIiIiIRJCwzfB0L48PdQgR79aMRqEOIeLN61EQ6hCiwmQrD3UIEe8W74FQhyCB4CzUEQSNMjwiIiIS8cI2wyMiIiKBpTE8IiIiIhFEDR4RERGJeOrSEhERiVLOq0HLIiIiIhFDGR4REZEopUHLIiIiIhFEGR4REZEo5bTwoIiIiEjkUIZHREQkSmkMj4iIiEgEUYZHREQkSmkdHhEREZEIogyPiIhIlHIu1BEEjzI8IiIiEvGU4REREYlSGsMjIiIiEkGU4REREYlSyvD8gJklmlnXQAcjIiIiEghHbfCY2VBgFfCGf7+nmb0W6MBEREREjpWadGndCfQGlgA451aZWYcAxiQiIiJBoGnphyp1zuX9oCyK3iIRERGp7WqS4VljZpcAsWbWBbge+DiwYYmIiEigadDyocYBJwAlwHNAPjAhkEGJiIiIHEtHzfA45wqB2/ybiIiIRAjnoifDU2WDx8z+TTVjdZxzwwISkYiIiMgxVl2GZ3rQohAREZGgc95QRxA8VTZ4nHMfBDMQERERkUCprkvrRefccDNbzRG6tpxzJwU0MhEREQkob5iM4fHfzeGFSkUdgSnAAn95e2ALMNw5l2tmBswGhgCFwBXOuZXVvUZ1XVrj/f+e91OCFxEREakJ59w6oCeAmcUCO4BXgFuAd51z95rZLf79PwKDgS7+rQ/wd/+/VapyWrpzLsP/cIxzbmvlDRjzP12ZiIiIhJxzFrTtR+gPbPS3N84HnvKXPwVc4H98PrDA+SwDGppZSnUnrck6POccoWxwzWIWERERATMbZWYrKm2jqqh6Mb51/wBaVErAZAIt/I9bA9srHZPuL6tSdWN4RuPL5HQ0s68qPVUP+G91JxUREZHwF8yVlp1z84H51dUxs3hgGDD5CMc7M/vJt7aqbgzPs8Bi4K/4+swO2uecy/mpLygiIiJShcHASufcLv/+LjNLcc5l+LusdvvLdwCplY5r41UsAT4AACAASURBVC+rUnVjePKcc1uccyPwpYpK8c3WqmtmbX/ihYiIiEiYcC54Ww2N4PvuLIDXgJH+xyOBf1Uqv9x8+gJ5lbq+juiot5Yws+uAO4FdwMElihygaekiIiJyTJhZMr5xw9dUKr4XeNHM/g/YCgz3ly/CNyV9A75p6Vce7fw1uVv6BKCrcy77R8QtIiIiUmPOuQKgyQ/KsvHN2vphXQeM/THnr0mDZzuQ92NOKiIiIuEvmIOWQ60mDZ5NwBIzex0oOVjonJsRsKhEREREjqGaNHi2+bd4/yYiIiIRIFxuLREMR23wOOfuCkYgIiIiIoFS3cKDs5xzE8zs3xz55qHDAhqZiIiIBNSPvOVDrVZdhmeh/9/pwQhEREREJFCqbPA45z73//tB8MIRERGRYPkRCwLWejVZeHAzR+7S6hiQiERERESOsZrM0upV6XEd4LdA48CEIyIiIsESTbO0qryX1kHOuexK2w7n3Czg3CDEJiIiInJM1KRL6+RKuzH4Mj41yQyJiIhIGNMsrUM9UOlxGbCF72/eJSIiIhL2arLw4NnBCKQ2iK+fxC+nXU2Trm1wzvHepEfocfUgGnZMASChfhIl+YW8MOg2AE4ZO5RuF/8CV+7lo6kL2PbB6lCGXysk1U/iqnvH0LprW3COR2/+GxtXfgfAoKuHMuL2Kxj7syvYn7uPxHpJXDNzPE1aNyU2NpbFj/yLj156P8RXEP6sRRsSr55csR/TtCUl/15ITMOmxJ7UB8rK8GbtpPipGVBUgDVpQfLU+Xh3pQNQvvlbSp6dG6rwa42Y+sm0uXccdbq2A+dIv3k23qISWt8zlpikOpSm72bbhOl49xcBUOf49rT+y1hi6ybhvF42nH8jrqQ0xFcR3pLrJzN+2njaHdcO5xyzbprFqWefSt8BffF6veRl5zFj4gxyduVQt0FdJtw/gZR2KRwoOcCsSbPY+t3WUF9CyGmWlp+Z/QyYCHT3F60ApjnnNpiZxzlXFugAw8lZd17GtiVf8ca1c4iJi8WTmMCbY+ZVPN/vjks4kF8IQKMuregyrC/P9v8jyS0accFzt/D0WZNw3ij6dP0Ev596Fas/+IJ5Y6YTG+chIdF3N5PGKU1IO6snWel7Kur2v2wQOzdsZ9bVf6Ve4/rc+94cPn71I8pLo+pj+aO5XekU3uO/ybDFkHzv05St+piYFm0oefVx8HqJ//VVxA/6HQdeeRwA756M74+RGmk19Q/s/2Al28bci8V5sMQEOi78Mxl/eZyCT7+m0W9/RbNRF7JrxjMQG0PqzBvZfuMMitduIbZhPVxpeagvIexdc+c1fL7kc/5y7V/wxHlISExg63dbWfiAbxm5YVcO45LxlzDv1nkMHzucTd9s4u5Rd9OmUxvG3D2GW0fcGuIrkGCqctCymf0GeAl4D7jCvy0DXjaz04A3gxBf2Iivl0irPl355vklAHhLyysaNwd1Pq8P3/3rEwA6DjiF9a8tw3ugjH3b95C3ZRctenYKdti1SmK9JLr27s4HL7wLQHlpGYX+9/iSO67khb8uwB2yQoKjTnIiAAlJdSjYux9vmf5I/Bixx/fEZWXgcnZTvnYleL0AeDd/S0yjpiGOrvaKqZdE3d5p5LzwFgCutAxvfgEJHVpR8OnXAOxfuooGg08HoN6ZP6P42y0Ur90CQPnefRX/LeTIkuolkdY7jTef9/0pKistoyC/gCJ/xgygTlIdnD+F0bZLW778+EsA0jem06JNCxo2bRj8wMOM11nQtlCrLsMzFfiVc25LpbKvzOw94Fug2rulm9nxQGvgU+fc/krlg5xzb/z0kEOjfmozinL20X/GKJp2a8vu1Vv4aOpCyop8N5Bv1acrRVl55G3ZBUByy0ZkrtxYcfz+jBySWzYKSey1RbPU5uzLzufq6dfRtls7tqzexNN3Pc4JZ5xE7q4ctq89NP38zlOLmfDoZGYvf5Q6yXV48LoZFV9uUjNxvX5O6WdLDi8/fQClKz6s2I9p2pKkW+fhigs58NpTlG9YE8Qoa5/41BaUZefRZvoEEru1p2j1RnbcNZ/i9duoP6Av+W8to8GQfsSl+BqVCR1bg4MOC+7C07gBe//9IXse/meIryK8tUxtSV5OHjc8cAMdu3Vkw+oNPHTnQ5QUlXD5TZfT/zf9KdhXwC2/uwWAzWs3c/qg01mzfA3H9TiO5q2b0zSlKXuz9ob4SiRYqpuW7vlBYwcAf9lW51yVuUAzux74FzAO+NrMzq/09F+qOW6Uma0wsxX/3b/+aLEHVYwnlmZp7fl6wbu8MPh2ygpLOGXs0Irnu5x/WkV2R36amNhY2qV15L2n32TKuTdRUlTCryf8jqFjL+SfM54/rH7aWT3Z9s1mxve+mjuGTOKyP11NnbqJIYi8lor1ENujL2Wff3RIcfzgi3HecsqWvweAy8th/62XUfiX6yh5eT51rroF6iSFIuJaw2JjSUzrRPbTi1h/7gS8RcU0H30R6TfPocmlQ+j875nE1E3EHex+jY0l+dTubBv/ABsu+iP1B55G3dNPCu1FhLlYTyyd0zqzaOEixg0ZR3FRMcPH+ObTLLh/ASP7jmTJq0sYeoXve/rFB1+kbv26zF08l2FXDmPjmo14y5VFc86CtoVadQ2eUjNr+8NCM2sHlBzlvH8ATnHOXQD8ArjDzMYfPEVVBznn5jvnejnnevWr2+UoLxFc+zNy2J+Rw65VvqzNhkXLaZbWHgCLjaHToFNZ/9qnFfULMnOp1+r79RnrpjSmIDM3qDHXNrmZ2eRkZrNpla+x+9miT2iX1oFmbVrw58UPMH3p32ncsgl/+s/9NGjWkDN/+0tWvOF7z3dvzWTP9t206tQ6lJdQq3jSeuHdtgG37/tfuJ7TzsFzYh+KH5v2fcWyUijYB4B32wa8WRnENNf7XJ3SzCxKM7MoWuUbcL930X9JTOtEycZ0Nl8+hQ1Db2Dvax9yYGtmRf39y7+mPDcfV1zCvvdXkJimLvDqZGVkkZWRxbpV6wBYumgpnX7wnr3/yvv0G9wPgKL9RcycNJNxg8cxfcJ0GjRuQMa2jKDHLaFTXYNnKvCOmV1hZif6tyuBt4ApRzvvwW4sf0boF8BgM5tBNQ2ecFa4J4/9GTkVM7JS+51AzvodvsdnppG7cScFmTkV9Te/vZIuw/oSE++hXmozGrRvWdFYkiPL27OXnJ1ZtOzYCoDu/U5k69ebGdfrKiadMZpJZ4wmJzObKefdVFG3e78TAajftAEpHVuxe9uuUF5CreLp9YtDurNiu59C/ICLKHrwTij9/jeN1W0A5vuqsKYtiWneCm+W/lBUp2zPXkp3Zvm6qoB6/XpQsn47sU0a+CqY0eK635H9zGIA9n+wksSu7bE6CRAbQ3KfNIrXbw9V+LVC7p5c9mTsobX/Pe7Zryfb1m+jVftWFXX6DuhL+kbf7MLk+sl44nyjOAaOGMjXy78+ZLyPRL7qbh76qv8+WhPxdU0BrAGGO+e+PMp5d5lZT+fcKv+59pvZecDjwInHIO6Q+PCOpxgwdzQxcR7yt+3m3YnzAegyrO9h3Vk53+1g/X8+5ffv3Ye3zMsHtz+pGVo18PSdj3HtrPF44uLYvX0Xj06aV2Xdf815iT9Mv46735iBmfHivU+zP3dfEKOtxeIT8HQ7meJn5lQU1bl4LHjiSBzv63U+OP08tksa8UMvh/IycI7iZ+ZC4f6qzix+O+58mNRZE7E4Dwe27yJ90iwa/uaXNL3Mt1B93pufkPvSOwCU5xew59FX6fLaDHCO/PdXsO/9FaEMv1Z4aMpD3DznZjxxHjK3ZTJz0kzG3zee1p1a47yO3Tt2M2+y7zsktXMqE2dMxDnH1u+2Mvvm2SGOPjyEw2DiYLFADPI0szZAmXMu8wjP9XPO/fdo55iXeqlaBwH2Wax+3QTavEEFoQ4hKmx+Iy7UIUS8W7yaARkMi7YtCmoL5NNWFwbtb22fnf8MaesqILeIcM6lV/PcURs7IiIiEnjRlFk46s1DRURERGo73QRUREQkSkXTGJ4qGzxmNpdqsl3OuesDEpGIiIjIMVZdhkdTBERERCJYOCwIGCzVTUt/KpiBiIiIiATKUcfwmFkz4I/47phe52C5c+6XAYxLREREAiyabq5Rk1lazwBrgQ7AXcAW4LMAxiQiIiJyTNWkwdPEOfcYUOqc+8A5dxWg7I6IiEgt57CgbaFWk2nppf5/M8zsXGAn0Lia+iIiIiJhpSYNnrvNrAG+e2rNBeoDNwQ0KhEREQm4aLrF41EbPM65//gf5gFnBzYcERERkWOvJrO0nuAICxD6x/KIiIhILeUNg7E1wVKTLq3/VHpcB/g1vnE8IiIiIrVCTbq0/lF538yeA5YGLCIRERGRY+yn3Dy0C9D8WAciIiIiwRUO08WDpSZjePZx6BieTHwrL4uIiIjUCjXp0qoXjEBEREQkuHRriUrM7N2alImIiIiEqyozPGZWB0gCmppZI6jo6KsPtA5CbCIiIhJAGsPjcw0wAWgFfM73DZ58YF6A4xIRERE5Zqps8DjnZgOzzWycc25uEGMSERGRINAYnkN5zazhwR0za2RmYwIYk4iIiMgxVZMGzx+cc3sP7jjncoE/BC4kERERCQZvELdQq0mDJ9bMKkY1mVksEB+4kERERESOrZqstPwG8IKZPezfv8ZfJiIiIrWYZmkd6o/AKGC0f/9t4JGARSQiIiJyjNVkpWUv8JB/w8zOBOYCYwMbmoiIiASSN3oSPDW7eaiZ/QwYAQwHNgP/DGRQIiIiIsdSdSstH4evkTMCyAJeAMw5d3aQYhMREZEA8moMDwDfAh8B5znnNgCY2Q1BiUpERETkGKpuWvqFQAbwvpk9Ymb9IYqagiIiIhIxqmzwOOdedc5dDBwPvI/vvlrNzezvZjYgWAGKiIhIYLggbkdjZg3N7GUz+9bM1prZaWbW08yWmdkqM1thZr39dc3M5pjZBjP7ysxOPtr5j7rwoHOuwDn3rHNuKNAG+ALfVHURERGRY2U28IZz7nigB7AWmAbc5ZzrCUzx7wMMBrr4t1HA34928hrN0jrIf1uJ+f5NREREarFwuOUDgJk1AM4CrgBwzh0ADpiZA+r7qzUAdvofnw8scM45YJk/O5TinMuo6jV+VINHRERE5Kcws1H4sjEHzXfOHUygdAD2AE+YWQ/gc2A8vuE0b5rZdHy9Uqf767cGtlc6V7q/TA0eEREROZTXgjcXyd+4qaqHyAOcDIxzzn1qZrOBW/BldW5wzv3DzIYDjwG/+imvX5Obh4qIiIgEUjqQ7pz71L//Mr4G0Ei+X+z4JaC3//EOILXS8W38ZVVSg0dERCRKhcssLedcJrDdzLr6i/oD3+Abs/Nzf9kvgfX+x68Bl/tna/UF8qobvwPq0hIREZHwMA54xszigU3AlcC/gNlm5gGK+X4M0CJgCLABKPTXrZYaPCIiIlEqXGZpATjnVgG9flC8FDjlCHUdP/Im5urSEhERkYinDI+IiEiU8kbRDaOU4REREZGIpwyPiIhIlPJG0T3BleERERGRiKcMj4iISJSqyV3MI4UyPCIiIhLx1OARERGRiBe2XVqLLCfUIUS8YeWNQx1CxFv3n/JQhxAVMsoSQx1CxPuTpyjUIUgAaFq6iIiISAQJ2wyPiIiIBFY43Voi0JThERERkYinDI+IiEiU0rR0ERERkQiiDI+IiEiU0iwtERERkQiiDI+IiEiU0iwtERERkQiiDI+IiEiUUoZHREREJIIowyMiIhKlnGZpiYiIiEQOZXhERESilMbwiIiIiEQQNXhEREQk4qlLS0REJEqpS0tEREQkgijDIyIiEqVcqAMIImV4REREJOIpwyMiIhKlvFp4UERERCRyKMMjIiISpTRLS0RERCSCKMMjIiISpZThEREREYkgyvCIiIhEKa3DIyIiIhJBlOERERGJUlqHR0RERCSCKMMjIiISpTRLS0RERCSCqMEjIiIiEU9dWiIiIlFK09JFREREIogyPCIiIlHKG0U5HmV4REREJOIpwyMiIhKlNC1dREREJIIowyMiIhKlomcEjzI8IiIiEgWU4REREYlSGsMjIiIiEkGU4REREYlSXgt1BMGjDI+IiIiEnJk1NLOXzexbM1trZqf5y8f5y9aY2bRK9Seb2QYzW2dmA492fmV4REREolSYrbQ8G3jDOXeRmcUDSWZ2NnA+0MM5V2JmzQHMrDtwMXAC0Ap4x8yOc86VV3VyZXhEREQkpMysAXAW8BiAc+6Ac24vMBq41zlX4i/f7T/kfOB551yJc24zsAHoXd1rqMEjIiISpVwQNzMbZWYrKm2jKoXSAdgDPGFmX5jZo2aWDBwHnGlmn5rZB2Z2qr9+a2B7pePT/WVVUpeWiIiIBJxzbj4wv4qnPcDJwDjn3KdmNhu4xV/eGOgLnAq8aGYdf8rrK8MjIiIioZYOpDvnPvXvv4yvAZQO/NP5LMe3dFBTYAeQWun4Nv6yKinD8yMk109m/LTxtDuuHc45Zt00i1PPPpW+A/ri9XrJy85jxsQZ5OzKoW6Duky4fwIp7VI4UHKAWZNmsfW7raG+hLAXXz+Jn0+7msZd24BzLJn0CCdePYiGHVMASKifREl+IS8Puo2EhnUZ8PD1NO/RkXUvfcjSOxaEOPraI7Z+Mu3uH0ti17bgHFsmzsNbVEK7e68lJjmRA9t3s2ncDLz7i0ju2YV2943xHWiwc8bz7H3j0+pfQPDUT6LHjFHU79oG5+DLGx6mvPgAJ037P2IS4nDlXlbf8jh7v9hI6wv70fm6YWBQtr+Y1X98jPxvtoX6EsKePsf/u3BZeNA5l2lm282sq3NuHdAf+AbYCJwNvG9mxwHxQBbwGvCsmc3AN2i5C7C8utcw58JqhHaFIW2HhF1gN864kTXL1/Dm82/iifOQkJiA1+ulaH8RAMOuHEbbLm2Zd+s8rrr1KooLi3l21rO06dSGMXeP4dYRt4b4Cg41zDUOdQiHOXvGNWQsX8e3zy8hJi4WT2ICB/ILK54/7Y5LOJBfyOezX8WTmEDTtHY07tqGxl3bhGWDp5fbH+oQjqj9zOvZv/wbsp57B4vzEJOYwHHP3sn2u59k/7I1NPldfxJSW7Bz+rPE1InHW1oG5V7imjei+1sz+fKUq6A8XL4qIaMsMdQhHKbnnNHkLPuWbc++j8XFEpuYQK/549k0fxG73/uS5v170mnsUD658M806tWF/et3UppXQPNf9uC4SRexdMgdob6EQ6R4ikIdwmEi7XMM0Cv91aCujDO5/SVB+1v71y3PVnttZtYTeBRfo2YTcCVQADwO9AQOAJOcc+/5698GXAWUAROcc4urO7+6tGooqV4Sab3TePP5NwEoKy2jIL+gorEDUCepDgcbkG27tOXLj78EIH1jOi3atKBh04bBD7wWia+XSEqfrnz7/BIAvKXlhzR2ADqd14cN//oEgLKiEjI/+47yktJgh1qrxdZLol6fE8h67h0AXGkZ5fkFJHRsxf5lawDI//BLGg05DQBv8YGKPwqWEBdddxv8iTz1EmnS93i2Pfs+AK60nLL8QpxzeOol+uskUZyZC0DuivWU5hX4Hn++gTop4fdjJNzoc3xseHFB247GObfKOdfLOXeSc+4C51yuf7bWpc65NOfcyQcbO/769zjnOjnnuh6tsQMB7NIys96+eNxn/vnyg4BvnXOLAvWagdQytSV5OXnc8MANdOzWkQ2rN/DQnQ9RUlTC5TddTv/f9KdgXwG3/O4WADav3czpg05nzfI1HNfjOJq3bk7TlKbszdob4isJX/VSm1Gcs4+zZ4yiSbe27Fm9hf9OXUhZUQkAKX26UpiVR96WXSGOtHaLT21BWU4e7WdcT1L39hSs3sj2KY9S/N12Gg7sw943P6XxeacT36ppxTHJP+tC++njiG/TjM3jZ4Xdr+Jwk9S2OSXZ+fScfS31u7dj71ebWHPHAtZMWUDf5ybTfcqlEGP8d+jUw45NveQX7H5vVQiirl30OZYfKyAZHjObCswB/m5mfwXmAcnALf4UVFXHVUxZ27Y/vPqvYz2xdE7rzKKFixg3ZBzFRcUMHzMcgAX3L2Bk35EseXUJQ68YCsCLD75I3fp1mbt4LsOuHMbGNRvx6n+uasV4Ymma1p41C97l5cG3U1ZYws/GDq14vvP5p1Vkd+SnM08MSWmd2LNwMd8MuhFvYTEtx/6GLRPn0uzywXRb9AAxdRNxpd9nzgq+WM+a/tez9tybSLnuN75fyFIl88TS4MQObHnybT48ZzLlhSV0vm4Y7Uaew5qpC3nnlOtYM3UhPWaMOuS4Jv2603bE2ay9+7kQRV576HN8bARzWnqoBapL6yKgH75FhMYCFzjn/gwMBH5X1UHOufn+dFavtnXbBii0nyYrI4usjCzWrVoHwNJFS+mU1umQOu+/8j79BvcDoGh/ETMnzWTc4HFMnzCdBo0bkLEtI+hx1yb7M3IoyMhh96qNAGxctJymae0BsNgYOgw6lY2vaZDh/+pARjYHMrIp+GI9ALmvf0LSiR0p3riD9b+/k7VDJpLz6keUbM087NjiDemUFxT7BolKlYp3ZlOckcPeL3yf5Yz/fEqDkzqQOvwsMl73javMeG0ZDX/2/XdIvW5t6fHAKD67YjqlueE59iuc6HMsP1agGjxlzrly51whsNE5lw/gnCsifAaF/yi5e3LZk7GH1h196xr17NeTbeu30ap9q4o6fQf0JX1jOuCb0eWJ8/UYDhwxkK+Xf33IeB85XNGePPZn5NDAPyOrTb8TyF3vm2XY5sw09m7cSUFmTihDjAhle/ZyYGcWCR19n936Z5xE8frteJo08FUwI2X8b9m90DdeLT61OcT6viriWzejTqc2HNi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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 720x720 with 2 Axes>"
]
},
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}
},
{
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350.2267211165732, 351.6159537770023, 348.28146248201705, 348.40336099388577, 349.9479492276253, 357.89468390800266, 359.71398188453503, 355.667199588334, 364.538132324733, 367.7916351557313, 372.5361472492402, 386.68010297313634, 393.47600578288916, 396.5221658609917, 391.1393774594288, 392.6094096197138, 398.2891590788789, 398.1132480336191, 404.23755683253626, 402.9911576989693, 401.8426328995272, 403.4901876944152, 403.3624158016454, 403.43636557787573, 407.3396124148418, 405.41493274618165, 400.9486115704279, 397.20308329067416, 405.24313570161627, 393.38977398234397, 393.5667993806361, 391.5956856604048, 385.56511210123455, 397.73290443062933, 403.05921090912955, 395.61269198758333, 400.6732376725912, 417.4180400636582, 446.5642547111032, 456.53008032873936, 449.26364321684025, 446.3808681728655, 461.9112025447132, 455.04412266688183, 505.76637420681686, 510.37727765166903, 504.57173611838124, 489.4051506835562, 495.11487744153106, 503.531830358037, 498.1943929562418, 494.93952292226106, 498.5030874873014, 495.0883413380134, 487.74040520532174, 485.95202371956884, 495.63461779218125, 493.02427547180906, 505.94151148917047, 499.1998408485772, 499.82384064963793, 489.89817221407054, 497.6467283045897, 503.12913642807865, 504.83139000632696, 513.527110699186, 512.1491462854764, 506.16980500259353, 503.37743491166253, 518.0802508230407, 520.8519801649439, 524.5066248924346, 528.2524763718748, 553.3312626876294, 531.3409560896519, 519.7001613099877, 525.1440204997099, 519.5906224829255, 517.733086007549, 524.4204717018132, 519.3073721027205, 529.8060361420639, 524.9892162634723, 525.2254614107908, 518.4325454432112, 521.1499960355761, 531.4687659570806, 523.7624688507028, 516.5214527188419, 513.3061066756671, 521.6387758073688, 524.6947096356403, 530.5188209125957, 518.6396203143279, 507.376496559835, 507.23696802328107, 513.1970023975546, 503.9252432209055, 507.3771311369687, 498.7897731924756, 496.6034113533152, 500.8245403498184, 500.9288787957246, 492.2795068218518, 496.9438551489888, 495.8298726736964, 492.5449997672332, 490.6445969764646, 494.99089036468115, 502.7828719638386, 513.9907401513658, 521.3665072725379, 522.3266905900982, 527.4759612148323, 522.2143885017143, 514.0156226022374, 508.86261598564994, 511.6910440261702, 524.3468691817508, 542.7033791603551, 536.4442001873724, 524.351853841482, 536.3289241029778, 530.8270832232214, 522.5107922527243, 529.9173827329066, 517.7072030391025, 522.2198841589267, 543.8006208717944, 544.6253851467833, 533.2290989625869, 513.4596301185491, 522.0857519045406, 517.0650272570585, 515.1346511552989, 499.64197652180326], \"mode\": \"line\", \"name\": \"LASSO each timestep\"}], {\"title\": \"LASSO each timestep\", \"autosize\": false, \"width\": 900, \"height\": 600, \"yaxis\": {\"type\": \"log\", \"autorange\": true}}, {\"showLink\": true, \"linkText\": \"Export to plot.ly\"})});</script>"
],
"text/plain": [
"<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"
]
},
"metadata": {}
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "BYPqcJmNfkZi",
"outputId": "fefa1de6-b7d2-4e80-ac47-99a7e265bfdc",
"colab": {
"resources": {
"http://localhost:8080/static/components/requirejs/require.js": {
"data": "/** vim: et:ts=4:sw=4:sts=4
 * @license RequireJS 2.1.22 Copyright (c) 2010-2015, The Dojo Foundation All Rights Reserved.
 * Available via the MIT or new BSD license.
 * see: http://github.com/jrburke/requirejs for details
 */
//Not using strict: uneven strict support in browsers, #392, and causes
//problems with requirejs.exec()/transpiler plugins that may not be strict.
/*jslint regexp: true, nomen: true, sloppy: true */
/*global window, navigator, document, importScripts, setTimeout, opera */

var requirejs, require, define;
(function (global) {
    var req, s, head, baseElement, dataMain, src,
        interactiveScript, currentlyAddingScript, mainScript, subPath,
        version = '2.1.22',
        commentRegExp = /(\/\*([\s\S]*?)\*\/|([^:]|^)\/\/(.*)$)/mg,
        cjsRequireRegExp = /[^.]\s*require\s*\(\s*["']([^'"\s]+)["']\s*\)/g,
        jsSuffixRegExp = /\.js$/,
        currDirRegExp = /^\.\//,
        op = Object.prototype,
        ostring = op.toString,
        hasOwn = op.hasOwnProperty,
        ap = Array.prototype,
        isBrowser = !!(typeof window !== 'undefined' && typeof navigator !== 'undefined' && window.document),
        isWebWorker = !isBrowser && typeof importScripts !== 'undefined',
        //PS3 indicates loaded and complete, but need to wait for complete
        //specifically. Sequence is 'loading', 'loaded', execution,
        // then 'complete'. The UA check is unfortunate, but not sure how
        //to feature test w/o causing perf issues.
        readyRegExp = isBrowser && navigator.platform === 'PLAYSTATION 3' ?
                      /^complete$/ : /^(complete|loaded)$/,
        defContextName = '_',
        //Oh the tragedy, detecting opera. See the usage of isOpera for reason.
        isOpera = typeof opera !== 'undefined' && opera.toString() === '[object Opera]',
        contexts = {},
        cfg = {},
        globalDefQueue = [],
        useInteractive = false;

    function isFunction(it) {
        return ostring.call(it) === '[object Function]';
    }

    function isArray(it) {
        return ostring.call(it) === '[object Array]';
    }

    /**
     * Helper function for iterating over an array. If the func returns
     * a true value, it will break out of the loop.
     */
    function each(ary, func) {
        if (ary) {
            var i;
            for (i = 0; i < ary.length; i += 1) {
                if (ary[i] && func(ary[i], i, ary)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    /**
     * Helper function for iterating over an array backwards. If the func
     * returns a true value, it will break out of the loop.
     */
    function eachReverse(ary, func) {
        if (ary) {
            var i;
            for (i = ary.length - 1; i > -1; i -= 1) {
                if (ary[i] && func(ary[i], i, ary)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    function hasProp(obj, prop) {
        return hasOwn.call(obj, prop);
    }

    function getOwn(obj, prop) {
        return hasProp(obj, prop) && obj[prop];
    }

    /**
     * Cycles over properties in an object and calls a function for each
     * property value. If the function returns a truthy value, then the
     * iteration is stopped.
     */
    function eachProp(obj, func) {
        var prop;
        for (prop in obj) {
            if (hasProp(obj, prop)) {
                if (func(obj[prop], prop)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    /**
     * Simple function to mix in properties from source into target,
     * but only if target does not already have a property of the same name.
     */
    function mixin(target, source, force, deepStringMixin) {
        if (source) {
            eachProp(source, function (value, prop) {
                if (force || !hasProp(target, prop)) {
                    if (deepStringMixin && typeof value === 'object' && value &&
                        !isArray(value) && !isFunction(value) &&
                        !(value instanceof RegExp)) {

                        if (!target[prop]) {
                            target[prop] = {};
                        }
                        mixin(target[prop], value, force, deepStringMixin);
                    } else {
                        target[prop] = value;
                    }
                }
            });
        }
        return target;
    }

    //Similar to Function.prototype.bind, but the 'this' object is specified
    //first, since it is easier to read/figure out what 'this' will be.
    function bind(obj, fn) {
        return function () {
            return fn.apply(obj, arguments);
        };
    }

    function scripts() {
        return document.getElementsByTagName('script');
    }

    function defaultOnError(err) {
        throw err;
    }

    //Allow getting a global that is expressed in
    //dot notation, like 'a.b.c'.
    function getGlobal(value) {
        if (!value) {
            return value;
        }
        var g = global;
        each(value.split('.'), function (part) {
            g = g[part];
        });
        return g;
    }

    /**
     * Constructs an error with a pointer to an URL with more information.
     * @param {String} id the error ID that maps to an ID on a web page.
     * @param {String} message human readable error.
     * @param {Error} [err] the original error, if there is one.
     *
     * @returns {Error}
     */
    function makeError(id, msg, err, requireModules) {
        var e = new Error(msg + '\nhttp://requirejs.org/docs/errors.html#' + id);
        e.requireType = id;
        e.requireModules = requireModules;
        if (err) {
            e.originalError = err;
        }
        return e;
    }

    if (typeof define !== 'undefined') {
        //If a define is already in play via another AMD loader,
        //do not overwrite.
        return;
    }

    if (typeof requirejs !== 'undefined') {
        if (isFunction(requirejs)) {
            //Do not overwrite an existing requirejs instance.
            return;
        }
        cfg = requirejs;
        requirejs = undefined;
    }

    //Allow for a require config object
    if (typeof require !== 'undefined' && !isFunction(require)) {
        //assume it is a config object.
        cfg = require;
        require = undefined;
    }

    function newContext(contextName) {
        var inCheckLoaded, Module, context, handlers,
            checkLoadedTimeoutId,
            config = {
                //Defaults. Do not set a default for map
                //config to speed up normalize(), which
                //will run faster if there is no default.
                waitSeconds: 7,
                baseUrl: './',
                paths: {},
                bundles: {},
                pkgs: {},
                shim: {},
                config: {}
            },
            registry = {},
            //registry of just enabled modules, to speed
            //cycle breaking code when lots of modules
            //are registered, but not activated.
            enabledRegistry = {},
            undefEvents = {},
            defQueue = [],
            defined = {},
            urlFetched = {},
            bundlesMap = {},
            requireCounter = 1,
            unnormalizedCounter = 1;

        /**
         * Trims the . and .. from an array of path segments.
         * It will keep a leading path segment if a .. will become
         * the first path segment, to help with module name lookups,
         * which act like paths, but can be remapped. But the end result,
         * all paths that use this function should look normalized.
         * NOTE: this method MODIFIES the input array.
         * @param {Array} ary the array of path segments.
         */
        function trimDots(ary) {
            var i, part;
            for (i = 0; i < ary.length; i++) {
                part = ary[i];
                if (part === '.') {
                    ary.splice(i, 1);
                    i -= 1;
                } else if (part === '..') {
                    // If at the start, or previous value is still ..,
                    // keep them so that when converted to a path it may
                    // still work when converted to a path, even though
                    // as an ID it is less than ideal. In larger point
                    // releases, may be better to just kick out an error.
                    if (i === 0 || (i === 1 && ary[2] === '..') || ary[i - 1] === '..') {
                        continue;
                    } else if (i > 0) {
                        ary.splice(i - 1, 2);
                        i -= 2;
                    }
                }
            }
        }

        /**
         * Given a relative module name, like ./something, normalize it to
         * a real name that can be mapped to a path.
         * @param {String} name the relative name
         * @param {String} baseName a real name that the name arg is relative
         * to.
         * @param {Boolean} applyMap apply the map config to the value. Should
         * only be done if this normalization is for a dependency ID.
         * @returns {String} normalized name
         */
        function normalize(name, baseName, applyMap) {
            var pkgMain, mapValue, nameParts, i, j, nameSegment, lastIndex,
                foundMap, foundI, foundStarMap, starI, normalizedBaseParts,
                baseParts = (baseName && baseName.split('/')),
                map = config.map,
                starMap = map && map['*'];

            //Adjust any relative paths.
            if (name) {
                name = name.split('/');
                lastIndex = name.length - 1;

                // If wanting node ID compatibility, strip .js from end
                // of IDs. Have to do this here, and not in nameToUrl
                // because node allows either .js or non .js to map
                // to same file.
                if (config.nodeIdCompat && jsSuffixRegExp.test(name[lastIndex])) {
                    name[lastIndex] = name[lastIndex].replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');
                }

                // Starts with a '.' so need the baseName
                if (name[0].charAt(0) === '.' && baseParts) {
                    //Convert baseName to array, and lop off the last part,
                    //so that . matches that 'directory' and not name of the baseName's
                    //module. For instance, baseName of 'one/two/three', maps to
                    //'one/two/three.js', but we want the directory, 'one/two' for
                    //this normalization.
                    normalizedBaseParts = baseParts.slice(0, baseParts.length - 1);
                    name = normalizedBaseParts.concat(name);
                }

                trimDots(name);
                name = name.join('/');
            }

            //Apply map config if available.
            if (applyMap && map && (baseParts || starMap)) {
                nameParts = name.split('/');

                outerLoop: for (i = nameParts.length; i > 0; i -= 1) {
                    nameSegment = nameParts.slice(0, i).join('/');

                    if (baseParts) {
                        //Find the longest baseName segment match in the config.
                        //So, do joins on the biggest to smallest lengths of baseParts.
                        for (j = baseParts.length; j > 0; j -= 1) {
                            mapValue = getOwn(map, baseParts.slice(0, j).join('/'));

                            //baseName segment has config, find if it has one for
                            //this name.
                            if (mapValue) {
                                mapValue = getOwn(mapValue, nameSegment);
                                if (mapValue) {
                                    //Match, update name to the new value.
                                    foundMap = mapValue;
                                    foundI = i;
                                    break outerLoop;
                                }
                            }
                        }
                    }

                    //Check for a star map match, but just hold on to it,
                    //if there is a shorter segment match later in a matching
                    //config, then favor over this star map.
                    if (!foundStarMap && starMap && getOwn(starMap, nameSegment)) {
                        foundStarMap = getOwn(starMap, nameSegment);
                        starI = i;
                    }
                }

                if (!foundMap && foundStarMap) {
                    foundMap = foundStarMap;
                    foundI = starI;
                }

                if (foundMap) {
                    nameParts.splice(0, foundI, foundMap);
                    name = nameParts.join('/');
                }
            }

            // If the name points to a package's name, use
            // the package main instead.
            pkgMain = getOwn(config.pkgs, name);

            return pkgMain ? pkgMain : name;
        }

        function removeScript(name) {
            if (isBrowser) {
                each(scripts(), function (scriptNode) {
                    if (scriptNode.getAttribute('data-requiremodule') === name &&
                            scriptNode.getAttribute('data-requirecontext') === context.contextName) {
                        scriptNode.parentNode.removeChild(scriptNode);
                        return true;
                    }
                });
            }
        }

        function hasPathFallback(id) {
            var pathConfig = getOwn(config.paths, id);
            if (pathConfig && isArray(pathConfig) && pathConfig.length > 1) {
                //Pop off the first array value, since it failed, and
                //retry
                pathConfig.shift();
                context.require.undef(id);

                //Custom require that does not do map translation, since
                //ID is "absolute", already mapped/resolved.
                context.makeRequire(null, {
                    skipMap: true
                })([id]);

                return true;
            }
        }

        //Turns a plugin!resource to [plugin, resource]
        //with the plugin being undefined if the name
        //did not have a plugin prefix.
        function splitPrefix(name) {
            var prefix,
                index = name ? name.indexOf('!') : -1;
            if (index > -1) {
                prefix = name.substring(0, index);
                name = name.substring(index + 1, name.length);
            }
            return [prefix, name];
        }

        /**
         * Creates a module mapping that includes plugin prefix, module
         * name, and path. If parentModuleMap is provided it will
         * also normalize the name via require.normalize()
         *
         * @param {String} name the module name
         * @param {String} [parentModuleMap] parent module map
         * for the module name, used to resolve relative names.
         * @param {Boolean} isNormalized: is the ID already normalized.
         * This is true if this call is done for a define() module ID.
         * @param {Boolean} applyMap: apply the map config to the ID.
         * Should only be true if this map is for a dependency.
         *
         * @returns {Object}
         */
        function makeModuleMap(name, parentModuleMap, isNormalized, applyMap) {
            var url, pluginModule, suffix, nameParts,
                prefix = null,
                parentName = parentModuleMap ? parentModuleMap.name : null,
                originalName = name,
                isDefine = true,
                normalizedName = '';

            //If no name, then it means it is a require call, generate an
            //internal name.
            if (!name) {
                isDefine = false;
                name = '_@r' + (requireCounter += 1);
            }

            nameParts = splitPrefix(name);
            prefix = nameParts[0];
            name = nameParts[1];

            if (prefix) {
                prefix = normalize(prefix, parentName, applyMap);
                pluginModule = getOwn(defined, prefix);
            }

            //Account for relative paths if there is a base name.
            if (name) {
                if (prefix) {
                    if (pluginModule && pluginModule.normalize) {
                        //Plugin is loaded, use its normalize method.
                        normalizedName = pluginModule.normalize(name, function (name) {
                            return normalize(name, parentName, applyMap);
                        });
                    } else {
                        // If nested plugin references, then do not try to
                        // normalize, as it will not normalize correctly. This
                        // places a restriction on resourceIds, and the longer
                        // term solution is not to normalize until plugins are
                        // loaded and all normalizations to allow for async
                        // loading of a loader plugin. But for now, fixes the
                        // common uses. Details in #1131
                        normalizedName = name.indexOf('!') === -1 ?
                                         normalize(name, parentName, applyMap) :
                                         name;
                    }
                } else {
                    //A regular module.
                    normalizedName = normalize(name, parentName, applyMap);

                    //Normalized name may be a plugin ID due to map config
                    //application in normalize. The map config values must
                    //already be normalized, so do not need to redo that part.
                    nameParts = splitPrefix(normalizedName);
                    prefix = nameParts[0];
                    normalizedName = nameParts[1];
                    isNormalized = true;

                    url = context.nameToUrl(normalizedName);
                }
            }

            //If the id is a plugin id that cannot be determined if it needs
            //normalization, stamp it with a unique ID so two matching relative
            //ids that may conflict can be separate.
            suffix = prefix && !pluginModule && !isNormalized ?
                     '_unnormalized' + (unnormalizedCounter += 1) :
                     '';

            return {
                prefix: prefix,
                name: normalizedName,
                parentMap: parentModuleMap,
                unnormalized: !!suffix,
                url: url,
                originalName: originalName,
                isDefine: isDefine,
                id: (prefix ?
                        prefix + '!' + normalizedName :
                        normalizedName) + suffix
            };
        }

        function getModule(depMap) {
            var id = depMap.id,
                mod = getOwn(registry, id);

            if (!mod) {
                mod = registry[id] = new context.Module(depMap);
            }

            return mod;
        }

        function on(depMap, name, fn) {
            var id = depMap.id,
                mod = getOwn(registry, id);

            if (hasProp(defined, id) &&
                    (!mod || mod.defineEmitComplete)) {
                if (name === 'defined') {
                    fn(defined[id]);
                }
            } else {
                mod = getModule(depMap);
                if (mod.error && name === 'error') {
                    fn(mod.error);
                } else {
                    mod.on(name, fn);
                }
            }
        }

        function onError(err, errback) {
            var ids = err.requireModules,
                notified = false;

            if (errback) {
                errback(err);
            } else {
                each(ids, function (id) {
                    var mod = getOwn(registry, id);
                    if (mod) {
                        //Set error on module, so it skips timeout checks.
                        mod.error = err;
                        if (mod.events.error) {
                            notified = true;
                            mod.emit('error', err);
                        }
                    }
                });

                if (!notified) {
                    req.onError(err);
                }
            }
        }

        /**
         * Internal method to transfer globalQueue items to this context's
         * defQueue.
         */
        function takeGlobalQueue() {
            //Push all the globalDefQueue items into the context's defQueue
            if (globalDefQueue.length) {
                each(globalDefQueue, function(queueItem) {
                    var id = queueItem[0];
                    if (typeof id === 'string') {
                        context.defQueueMap[id] = true;
                    }
                    defQueue.push(queueItem);
                });
                globalDefQueue = [];
            }
        }

        handlers = {
            'require': function (mod) {
                if (mod.require) {
                    return mod.require;
                } else {
                    return (mod.require = context.makeRequire(mod.map));
                }
            },
            'exports': function (mod) {
                mod.usingExports = true;
                if (mod.map.isDefine) {
                    if (mod.exports) {
                        return (defined[mod.map.id] = mod.exports);
                    } else {
                        return (mod.exports = defined[mod.map.id] = {});
                    }
                }
            },
            'module': function (mod) {
                if (mod.module) {
                    return mod.module;
                } else {
                    return (mod.module = {
                        id: mod.map.id,
                        uri: mod.map.url,
                        config: function () {
                            return getOwn(config.config, mod.map.id) || {};
                        },
                        exports: mod.exports || (mod.exports = {})
                    });
                }
            }
        };

        function cleanRegistry(id) {
            //Clean up machinery used for waiting modules.
            delete registry[id];
            delete enabledRegistry[id];
        }

        function breakCycle(mod, traced, processed) {
            var id = mod.map.id;

            if (mod.error) {
                mod.emit('error', mod.error);
            } else {
                traced[id] = true;
                each(mod.depMaps, function (depMap, i) {
                    var depId = depMap.id,
                        dep = getOwn(registry, depId);

                    //Only force things that have not completed
                    //being defined, so still in the registry,
                    //and only if it has not been matched up
                    //in the module already.
                    if (dep && !mod.depMatched[i] && !processed[depId]) {
                        if (getOwn(traced, depId)) {
                            mod.defineDep(i, defined[depId]);
                            mod.check(); //pass false?
                        } else {
                            breakCycle(dep, traced, processed);
                        }
                    }
                });
                processed[id] = true;
            }
        }

        function checkLoaded() {
            var err, usingPathFallback,
                waitInterval = config.waitSeconds * 1000,
                //It is possible to disable the wait interval by using waitSeconds of 0.
                expired = waitInterval && (context.startTime + waitInterval) < new Date().getTime(),
                noLoads = [],
                reqCalls = [],
                stillLoading = false,
                needCycleCheck = true;

            //Do not bother if this call was a result of a cycle break.
            if (inCheckLoaded) {
                return;
            }

            inCheckLoaded = true;

            //Figure out the state of all the modules.
            eachProp(enabledRegistry, function (mod) {
                var map = mod.map,
                    modId = map.id;

                //Skip things that are not enabled or in error state.
                if (!mod.enabled) {
                    return;
                }

                if (!map.isDefine) {
                    reqCalls.push(mod);
                }

                if (!mod.error) {
                    //If the module should be executed, and it has not
                    //been inited and time is up, remember it.
                    if (!mod.inited && expired) {
                        if (hasPathFallback(modId)) {
                            usingPathFallback = true;
                            stillLoading = true;
                        } else {
                            noLoads.push(modId);
                            removeScript(modId);
                        }
                    } else if (!mod.inited && mod.fetched && map.isDefine) {
                        stillLoading = true;
                        if (!map.prefix) {
                            //No reason to keep looking for unfinished
                            //loading. If the only stillLoading is a
                            //plugin resource though, keep going,
                            //because it may be that a plugin resource
                            //is waiting on a non-plugin cycle.
                            return (needCycleCheck = false);
                        }
                    }
                }
            });

            if (expired && noLoads.length) {
                //If wait time expired, throw error of unloaded modules.
                err = makeError('timeout', 'Load timeout for modules: ' + noLoads, null, noLoads);
                err.contextName = context.contextName;
                return onError(err);
            }

            //Not expired, check for a cycle.
            if (needCycleCheck) {
                each(reqCalls, function (mod) {
                    breakCycle(mod, {}, {});
                });
            }

            //If still waiting on loads, and the waiting load is something
            //other than a plugin resource, or there are still outstanding
            //scripts, then just try back later.
            if ((!expired || usingPathFallback) && stillLoading) {
                //Something is still waiting to load. Wait for it, but only
                //if a timeout is not already in effect.
                if ((isBrowser || isWebWorker) && !checkLoadedTimeoutId) {
                    checkLoadedTimeoutId = setTimeout(function () {
                        checkLoadedTimeoutId = 0;
                        checkLoaded();
                    }, 50);
                }
            }

            inCheckLoaded = false;
        }

        Module = function (map) {
            this.events = getOwn(undefEvents, map.id) || {};
            this.map = map;
            this.shim = getOwn(config.shim, map.id);
            this.depExports = [];
            this.depMaps = [];
            this.depMatched = [];
            this.pluginMaps = {};
            this.depCount = 0;

            /* this.exports this.factory
               this.depMaps = [],
               this.enabled, this.fetched
            */
        };

        Module.prototype = {
            init: function (depMaps, factory, errback, options) {
                options = options || {};

                //Do not do more inits if already done. Can happen if there
                //are multiple define calls for the same module. That is not
                //a normal, common case, but it is also not unexpected.
                if (this.inited) {
                    return;
                }

                this.factory = factory;

                if (errback) {
                    //Register for errors on this module.
                    this.on('error', errback);
                } else if (this.events.error) {
                    //If no errback already, but there are error listeners
                    //on this module, set up an errback to pass to the deps.
                    errback = bind(this, function (err) {
                        this.emit('error', err);
                    });
                }

                //Do a copy of the dependency array, so that
                //source inputs are not modified. For example
                //"shim" deps are passed in here directly, and
                //doing a direct modification of the depMaps array
                //would affect that config.
                this.depMaps = depMaps && depMaps.slice(0);

                this.errback = errback;

                //Indicate this module has be initialized
                this.inited = true;

                this.ignore = options.ignore;

                //Could have option to init this module in enabled mode,
                //or could have been previously marked as enabled. However,
                //the dependencies are not known until init is called. So
                //if enabled previously, now trigger dependencies as enabled.
                if (options.enabled || this.enabled) {
                    //Enable this module and dependencies.
                    //Will call this.check()
                    this.enable();
                } else {
                    this.check();
                }
            },

            defineDep: function (i, depExports) {
                //Because of cycles, defined callback for a given
                //export can be called more than once.
                if (!this.depMatched[i]) {
                    this.depMatched[i] = true;
                    this.depCount -= 1;
                    this.depExports[i] = depExports;
                }
            },

            fetch: function () {
                if (this.fetched) {
                    return;
                }
                this.fetched = true;

                context.startTime = (new Date()).getTime();

                var map = this.map;

                //If the manager is for a plugin managed resource,
                //ask the plugin to load it now.
                if (this.shim) {
                    context.makeRequire(this.map, {
                        enableBuildCallback: true
                    })(this.shim.deps || [], bind(this, function () {
                        return map.prefix ? this.callPlugin() : this.load();
                    }));
                } else {
                    //Regular dependency.
                    return map.prefix ? this.callPlugin() : this.load();
                }
            },

            load: function () {
                var url = this.map.url;

                //Regular dependency.
                if (!urlFetched[url]) {
                    urlFetched[url] = true;
                    context.load(this.map.id, url);
                }
            },

            /**
             * Checks if the module is ready to define itself, and if so,
             * define it.
             */
            check: function () {
                if (!this.enabled || this.enabling) {
                    return;
                }

                var err, cjsModule,
                    id = this.map.id,
                    depExports = this.depExports,
                    exports = this.exports,
                    factory = this.factory;

                if (!this.inited) {
                    // Only fetch if not already in the defQueue.
                    if (!hasProp(context.defQueueMap, id)) {
                        this.fetch();
                    }
                } else if (this.error) {
                    this.emit('error', this.error);
                } else if (!this.defining) {
                    //The factory could trigger another require call
                    //that would result in checking this module to
                    //define itself again. If already in the process
                    //of doing that, skip this work.
                    this.defining = true;

                    if (this.depCount < 1 && !this.defined) {
                        if (isFunction(factory)) {
                            try {
                                exports = context.execCb(id, factory, depExports, exports);
                            } catch (e) {
                                err = e;
                            }

                            // Favor return value over exports. If node/cjs in play,
                            // then will not have a return value anyway. Favor
                            // module.exports assignment over exports object.
                            if (this.map.isDefine && exports === undefined) {
                                cjsModule = this.module;
                                if (cjsModule) {
                                    exports = cjsModule.exports;
                                } else if (this.usingExports) {
                                    //exports already set the defined value.
                                    exports = this.exports;
                                }
                            }

                            if (err) {
                                // If there is an error listener, favor passing
                                // to that instead of throwing an error. However,
                                // only do it for define()'d  modules. require
                                // errbacks should not be called for failures in
                                // their callbacks (#699). However if a global
                                // onError is set, use that.
                                if ((this.events.error && this.map.isDefine) ||
                                    req.onError !== defaultOnError) {
                                    err.requireMap = this.map;
                                    err.requireModules = this.map.isDefine ? [this.map.id] : null;
                                    err.requireType = this.map.isDefine ? 'define' : 'require';
                                    return onError((this.error = err));
                                } else if (typeof console !== 'undefined' &&
                                           console.error) {
                                    // Log the error for debugging. If promises could be
                                    // used, this would be different, but making do.
                                    console.error(err);
                                } else {
                                    // Do not want to completely lose the error. While this
                                    // will mess up processing and lead to similar results
                                    // as bug 1440, it at least surfaces the error.
                                    req.onError(err);
                                }
                            }
                        } else {
                            //Just a literal value
                            exports = factory;
                        }

                        this.exports = exports;

                        if (this.map.isDefine && !this.ignore) {
                            defined[id] = exports;

                            if (req.onResourceLoad) {
                                var resLoadMaps = [];
                                each(this.depMaps, function (depMap) {
                                    resLoadMaps.push(depMap.normalizedMap || depMap);
                                });
                                req.onResourceLoad(context, this.map, resLoadMaps);
                            }
                        }

                        //Clean up
                        cleanRegistry(id);

                        this.defined = true;
                    }

                    //Finished the define stage. Allow calling check again
                    //to allow define notifications below in the case of a
                    //cycle.
                    this.defining = false;

                    if (this.defined && !this.defineEmitted) {
                        this.defineEmitted = true;
                        this.emit('defined', this.exports);
                        this.defineEmitComplete = true;
                    }

                }
            },

            callPlugin: function () {
                var map = this.map,
                    id = map.id,
                    //Map already normalized the prefix.
                    pluginMap = makeModuleMap(map.prefix);

                //Mark this as a dependency for this plugin, so it
                //can be traced for cycles.
                this.depMaps.push(pluginMap);

                on(pluginMap, 'defined', bind(this, function (plugin) {
                    var load, normalizedMap, normalizedMod,
                        bundleId = getOwn(bundlesMap, this.map.id),
                        name = this.map.name,
                        parentName = this.map.parentMap ? this.map.parentMap.name : null,
                        localRequire = context.makeRequire(map.parentMap, {
                            enableBuildCallback: true
                        });

                    //If current map is not normalized, wait for that
                    //normalized name to load instead of continuing.
                    if (this.map.unnormalized) {
                        //Normalize the ID if the plugin allows it.
                        if (plugin.normalize) {
                            name = plugin.normalize(name, function (name) {
                                return normalize(name, parentName, true);
                            }) || '';
                        }

                        //prefix and name should already be normalized, no need
                        //for applying map config again either.
                        normalizedMap = makeModuleMap(map.prefix + '!' + name,
                                                      this.map.parentMap);
                        on(normalizedMap,
                            'defined', bind(this, function (value) {
                                this.map.normalizedMap = normalizedMap;
                                this.init([], function () { return value; }, null, {
                                    enabled: true,
                                    ignore: true
                                });
                            }));

                        normalizedMod = getOwn(registry, normalizedMap.id);
                        if (normalizedMod) {
                            //Mark this as a dependency for this plugin, so it
                            //can be traced for cycles.
                            this.depMaps.push(normalizedMap);

                            if (this.events.error) {
                                normalizedMod.on('error', bind(this, function (err) {
                                    this.emit('error', err);
                                }));
                            }
                            normalizedMod.enable();
                        }

                        return;
                    }

                    //If a paths config, then just load that file instead to
                    //resolve the plugin, as it is built into that paths layer.
                    if (bundleId) {
                        this.map.url = context.nameToUrl(bundleId);
                        this.load();
                        return;
                    }

                    load = bind(this, function (value) {
                        this.init([], function () { return value; }, null, {
                            enabled: true
                        });
                    });

                    load.error = bind(this, function (err) {
                        this.inited = true;
                        this.error = err;
                        err.requireModules = [id];

                        //Remove temp unnormalized modules for this module,
                        //since they will never be resolved otherwise now.
                        eachProp(registry, function (mod) {
                            if (mod.map.id.indexOf(id + '_unnormalized') === 0) {
                                cleanRegistry(mod.map.id);
                            }
                        });

                        onError(err);
                    });

                    //Allow plugins to load other code without having to know the
                    //context or how to 'complete' the load.
                    load.fromText = bind(this, function (text, textAlt) {
                        /*jslint evil: true */
                        var moduleName = map.name,
                            moduleMap = makeModuleMap(moduleName),
                            hasInteractive = useInteractive;

                        //As of 2.1.0, support just passing the text, to reinforce
                        //fromText only being called once per resource. Still
                        //support old style of passing moduleName but discard
                        //that moduleName in favor of the internal ref.
                        if (textAlt) {
                            text = textAlt;
                        }

                        //Turn off interactive script matching for IE for any define
                        //calls in the text, then turn it back on at the end.
                        if (hasInteractive) {
                            useInteractive = false;
                        }

                        //Prime the system by creating a module instance for
                        //it.
                        getModule(moduleMap);

                        //Transfer any config to this other module.
                        if (hasProp(config.config, id)) {
                            config.config[moduleName] = config.config[id];
                        }

                        try {
                            req.exec(text);
                        } catch (e) {
                            return onError(makeError('fromtexteval',
                                             'fromText eval for ' + id +
                                            ' failed: ' + e,
                                             e,
                                             [id]));
                        }

                        if (hasInteractive) {
                            useInteractive = true;
                        }

                        //Mark this as a dependency for the plugin
                        //resource
                        this.depMaps.push(moduleMap);

                        //Support anonymous modules.
                        context.completeLoad(moduleName);

                        //Bind the value of that module to the value for this
                        //resource ID.
                        localRequire([moduleName], load);
                    });

                    //Use parentName here since the plugin's name is not reliable,
                    //could be some weird string with no path that actually wants to
                    //reference the parentName's path.
                    plugin.load(map.name, localRequire, load, config);
                }));

                context.enable(pluginMap, this);
                this.pluginMaps[pluginMap.id] = pluginMap;
            },

            enable: function () {
                enabledRegistry[this.map.id] = this;
                this.enabled = true;

                //Set flag mentioning that the module is enabling,
                //so that immediate calls to the defined callbacks
                //for dependencies do not trigger inadvertent load
                //with the depCount still being zero.
                this.enabling = true;

                //Enable each dependency
                each(this.depMaps, bind(this, function (depMap, i) {
                    var id, mod, handler;

                    if (typeof depMap === 'string') {
                        //Dependency needs to be converted to a depMap
                        //and wired up to this module.
                        depMap = makeModuleMap(depMap,
                                               (this.map.isDefine ? this.map : this.map.parentMap),
                                               false,
                                               !this.skipMap);
                        this.depMaps[i] = depMap;

                        handler = getOwn(handlers, depMap.id);

                        if (handler) {
                            this.depExports[i] = handler(this);
                            return;
                        }

                        this.depCount += 1;

                        on(depMap, 'defined', bind(this, function (depExports) {
                            if (this.undefed) {
                                return;
                            }
                            this.defineDep(i, depExports);
                            this.check();
                        }));

                        if (this.errback) {
                            on(depMap, 'error', bind(this, this.errback));
                        } else if (this.events.error) {
                            // No direct errback on this module, but something
                            // else is listening for errors, so be sure to
                            // propagate the error correctly.
                            on(depMap, 'error', bind(this, function(err) {
                                this.emit('error', err);
                            }));
                        }
                    }

                    id = depMap.id;
                    mod = registry[id];

                    //Skip special modules like 'require', 'exports', 'module'
                    //Also, don't call enable if it is already enabled,
                    //important in circular dependency cases.
                    if (!hasProp(handlers, id) && mod && !mod.enabled) {
                        context.enable(depMap, this);
                    }
                }));

                //Enable each plugin that is used in
                //a dependency
                eachProp(this.pluginMaps, bind(this, function (pluginMap) {
                    var mod = getOwn(registry, pluginMap.id);
                    if (mod && !mod.enabled) {
                        context.enable(pluginMap, this);
                    }
                }));

                this.enabling = false;

                this.check();
            },

            on: function (name, cb) {
                var cbs = this.events[name];
                if (!cbs) {
                    cbs = this.events[name] = [];
                }
                cbs.push(cb);
            },

            emit: function (name, evt) {
                each(this.events[name], function (cb) {
                    cb(evt);
                });
                if (name === 'error') {
                    //Now that the error handler was triggered, remove
                    //the listeners, since this broken Module instance
                    //can stay around for a while in the registry.
                    delete this.events[name];
                }
            }
        };

        function callGetModule(args) {
            //Skip modules already defined.
            if (!hasProp(defined, args[0])) {
                getModule(makeModuleMap(args[0], null, true)).init(args[1], args[2]);
            }
        }

        function removeListener(node, func, name, ieName) {
            //Favor detachEvent because of IE9
            //issue, see attachEvent/addEventListener comment elsewhere
            //in this file.
            if (node.detachEvent && !isOpera) {
                //Probably IE. If not it will throw an error, which will be
                //useful to know.
                if (ieName) {
                    node.detachEvent(ieName, func);
                }
            } else {
                node.removeEventListener(name, func, false);
            }
        }

        /**
         * Given an event from a script node, get the requirejs info from it,
         * and then removes the event listeners on the node.
         * @param {Event} evt
         * @returns {Object}
         */
        function getScriptData(evt) {
            //Using currentTarget instead of target for Firefox 2.0's sake. Not
            //all old browsers will be supported, but this one was easy enough
            //to support and still makes sense.
            var node = evt.currentTarget || evt.srcElement;

            //Remove the listeners once here.
            removeListener(node, context.onScriptLoad, 'load', 'onreadystatechange');
            removeListener(node, context.onScriptError, 'error');

            return {
                node: node,
                id: node && node.getAttribute('data-requiremodule')
            };
        }

        function intakeDefines() {
            var args;

            //Any defined modules in the global queue, intake them now.
            takeGlobalQueue();

            //Make sure any remaining defQueue items get properly processed.
            while (defQueue.length) {
                args = defQueue.shift();
                if (args[0] === null) {
                    return onError(makeError('mismatch', 'Mismatched anonymous define() module: ' +
                        args[args.length - 1]));
                } else {
                    //args are id, deps, factory. Should be normalized by the
                    //define() function.
                    callGetModule(args);
                }
            }
            context.defQueueMap = {};
        }

        context = {
            config: config,
            contextName: contextName,
            registry: registry,
            defined: defined,
            urlFetched: urlFetched,
            defQueue: defQueue,
            defQueueMap: {},
            Module: Module,
            makeModuleMap: makeModuleMap,
            nextTick: req.nextTick,
            onError: onError,

            /**
             * Set a configuration for the context.
             * @param {Object} cfg config object to integrate.
             */
            configure: function (cfg) {
                //Make sure the baseUrl ends in a slash.
                if (cfg.baseUrl) {
                    if (cfg.baseUrl.charAt(cfg.baseUrl.length - 1) !== '/') {
                        cfg.baseUrl += '/';
                    }
                }

                //Save off the paths since they require special processing,
                //they are additive.
                var shim = config.shim,
                    objs = {
                        paths: true,
                        bundles: true,
                        config: true,
                        map: true
                    };

                eachProp(cfg, function (value, prop) {
                    if (objs[prop]) {
                        if (!config[prop]) {
                            config[prop] = {};
                        }
                        mixin(config[prop], value, true, true);
                    } else {
                        config[prop] = value;
                    }
                });

                //Reverse map the bundles
                if (cfg.bundles) {
                    eachProp(cfg.bundles, function (value, prop) {
                        each(value, function (v) {
                            if (v !== prop) {
                                bundlesMap[v] = prop;
                            }
                        });
                    });
                }

                //Merge shim
                if (cfg.shim) {
                    eachProp(cfg.shim, function (value, id) {
                        //Normalize the structure
                        if (isArray(value)) {
                            value = {
                                deps: value
                            };
                        }
                        if ((value.exports || value.init) && !value.exportsFn) {
                            value.exportsFn = context.makeShimExports(value);
                        }
                        shim[id] = value;
                    });
                    config.shim = shim;
                }

                //Adjust packages if necessary.
                if (cfg.packages) {
                    each(cfg.packages, function (pkgObj) {
                        var location, name;

                        pkgObj = typeof pkgObj === 'string' ? {name: pkgObj} : pkgObj;

                        name = pkgObj.name;
                        location = pkgObj.location;
                        if (location) {
                            config.paths[name] = pkgObj.location;
                        }

                        //Save pointer to main module ID for pkg name.
                        //Remove leading dot in main, so main paths are normalized,
                        //and remove any trailing .js, since different package
                        //envs have different conventions: some use a module name,
                        //some use a file name.
                        config.pkgs[name] = pkgObj.name + '/' + (pkgObj.main || 'main')
                                     .replace(currDirRegExp, '')
                                     .replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');
                    });
                }

                //If there are any "waiting to execute" modules in the registry,
                //update the maps for them, since their info, like URLs to load,
                //may have changed.
                eachProp(registry, function (mod, id) {
                    //If module already has init called, since it is too
                    //late to modify them, and ignore unnormalized ones
                    //since they are transient.
                    if (!mod.inited && !mod.map.unnormalized) {
                        mod.map = makeModuleMap(id, null, true);
                    }
                });

                //If a deps array or a config callback is specified, then call
                //require with those args. This is useful when require is defined as a
                //config object before require.js is loaded.
                if (cfg.deps || cfg.callback) {
                    context.require(cfg.deps || [], cfg.callback);
                }
            },

            makeShimExports: function (value) {
                function fn() {
                    var ret;
                    if (value.init) {
                        ret = value.init.apply(global, arguments);
                    }
                    return ret || (value.exports && getGlobal(value.exports));
                }
                return fn;
            },

            makeRequire: function (relMap, options) {
                options = options || {};

                function localRequire(deps, callback, errback) {
                    var id, map, requireMod;

                    if (options.enableBuildCallback && callback && isFunction(callback)) {
                        callback.__requireJsBuild = true;
                    }

                    if (typeof deps === 'string') {
                        if (isFunction(callback)) {
                            //Invalid call
                            return onError(makeError('requireargs', 'Invalid require call'), errback);
                        }

                        //If require|exports|module are requested, get the
                        //value for them from the special handlers. Caveat:
                        //this only works while module is being defined.
                        if (relMap && hasProp(handlers, deps)) {
                            return handlers[deps](registry[relMap.id]);
                        }

                        //Synchronous access to one module. If require.get is
                        //available (as in the Node adapter), prefer that.
                        if (req.get) {
                            return req.get(context, deps, relMap, localRequire);
                        }

                        //Normalize module name, if it contains . or ..
                        map = makeModuleMap(deps, relMap, false, true);
                        id = map.id;

                        if (!hasProp(defined, id)) {
                            return onError(makeError('notloaded', 'Module name "' +
                                        id +
                                        '" has not been loaded yet for context: ' +
                                        contextName +
                                        (relMap ? '' : '. Use require([])')));
                        }
                        return defined[id];
                    }

                    //Grab defines waiting in the global queue.
                    intakeDefines();

                    //Mark all the dependencies as needing to be loaded.
                    context.nextTick(function () {
                        //Some defines could have been added since the
                        //require call, collect them.
                        intakeDefines();

                        requireMod = getModule(makeModuleMap(null, relMap));

                        //Store if map config should be applied to this require
                        //call for dependencies.
                        requireMod.skipMap = options.skipMap;

                        requireMod.init(deps, callback, errback, {
                            enabled: true
                        });

                        checkLoaded();
                    });

                    return localRequire;
                }

                mixin(localRequire, {
                    isBrowser: isBrowser,

                    /**
                     * Converts a module name + .extension into an URL path.
                     * *Requires* the use of a module name. It does not support using
                     * plain URLs like nameToUrl.
                     */
                    toUrl: function (moduleNamePlusExt) {
                        var ext,
                            index = moduleNamePlusExt.lastIndexOf('.'),
                            segment = moduleNamePlusExt.split('/')[0],
                            isRelative = segment === '.' || segment === '..';

                        //Have a file extension alias, and it is not the
                        //dots from a relative path.
                        if (index !== -1 && (!isRelative || index > 1)) {
                            ext = moduleNamePlusExt.substring(index, moduleNamePlusExt.length);
                            moduleNamePlusExt = moduleNamePlusExt.substring(0, index);
                        }

                        return context.nameToUrl(normalize(moduleNamePlusExt,
                                                relMap && relMap.id, true), ext,  true);
                    },

                    defined: function (id) {
                        return hasProp(defined, makeModuleMap(id, relMap, false, true).id);
                    },

                    specified: function (id) {
                        id = makeModuleMap(id, relMap, false, true).id;
                        return hasProp(defined, id) || hasProp(registry, id);
                    }
                });

                //Only allow undef on top level require calls
                if (!relMap) {
                    localRequire.undef = function (id) {
                        //Bind any waiting define() calls to this context,
                        //fix for #408
                        takeGlobalQueue();

                        var map = makeModuleMap(id, relMap, true),
                            mod = getOwn(registry, id);

                        mod.undefed = true;
                        removeScript(id);

                        delete defined[id];
                        delete urlFetched[map.url];
                        delete undefEvents[id];

                        //Clean queued defines too. Go backwards
                        //in array so that the splices do not
                        //mess up the iteration.
                        eachReverse(defQueue, function(args, i) {
                            if (args[0] === id) {
                                defQueue.splice(i, 1);
                            }
                        });
                        delete context.defQueueMap[id];

                        if (mod) {
                            //Hold on to listeners in case the
                            //module will be attempted to be reloaded
                            //using a different config.
                            if (mod.events.defined) {
                                undefEvents[id] = mod.events;
                            }

                            cleanRegistry(id);
                        }
                    };
                }

                return localRequire;
            },

            /**
             * Called to enable a module if it is still in the registry
             * awaiting enablement. A second arg, parent, the parent module,
             * is passed in for context, when this method is overridden by
             * the optimizer. Not shown here to keep code compact.
             */
            enable: function (depMap) {
                var mod = getOwn(registry, depMap.id);
                if (mod) {
                    getModule(depMap).enable();
                }
            },

            /**
             * Internal method used by environment adapters to complete a load event.
             * A load event could be a script load or just a load pass from a synchronous
             * load call.
             * @param {String} moduleName the name of the module to potentially complete.
             */
            completeLoad: function (moduleName) {
                var found, args, mod,
                    shim = getOwn(config.shim, moduleName) || {},
                    shExports = shim.exports;

                takeGlobalQueue();

                while (defQueue.length) {
                    args = defQueue.shift();
                    if (args[0] === null) {
                        args[0] = moduleName;
                        //If already found an anonymous module and bound it
                        //to this name, then this is some other anon module
                        //waiting for its completeLoad to fire.
                        if (found) {
                            break;
                        }
                        found = true;
                    } else if (args[0] === moduleName) {
                        //Found matching define call for this script!
                        found = true;
                    }

                    callGetModule(args);
                }
                context.defQueueMap = {};

                //Do this after the cycle of callGetModule in case the result
                //of those calls/init calls changes the registry.
                mod = getOwn(registry, moduleName);

                if (!found && !hasProp(defined, moduleName) && mod && !mod.inited) {
                    if (config.enforceDefine && (!shExports || !getGlobal(shExports))) {
                        if (hasPathFallback(moduleName)) {
                            return;
                        } else {
                            return onError(makeError('nodefine',
                                             'No define call for ' + moduleName,
                                             null,
                                             [moduleName]));
                        }
                    } else {
                        //A script that does not call define(), so just simulate
                        //the call for it.
                        callGetModule([moduleName, (shim.deps || []), shim.exportsFn]);
                    }
                }

                checkLoaded();
            },

            /**
             * Converts a module name to a file path. Supports cases where
             * moduleName may actually be just an URL.
             * Note that it **does not** call normalize on the moduleName,
             * it is assumed to have already been normalized. This is an
             * internal API, not a public one. Use toUrl for the public API.
             */
            nameToUrl: function (moduleName, ext, skipExt) {
                var paths, syms, i, parentModule, url,
                    parentPath, bundleId,
                    pkgMain = getOwn(config.pkgs, moduleName);

                if (pkgMain) {
                    moduleName = pkgMain;
                }

                bundleId = getOwn(bundlesMap, moduleName);

                if (bundleId) {
                    return context.nameToUrl(bundleId, ext, skipExt);
                }

                //If a colon is in the URL, it indicates a protocol is used and it is just
                //an URL to a file, or if it starts with a slash, contains a query arg (i.e. ?)
                //or ends with .js, then assume the user meant to use an url and not a module id.
                //The slash is important for protocol-less URLs as well as full paths.
                if (req.jsExtRegExp.test(moduleName)) {
                    //Just a plain path, not module name lookup, so just return it.
                    //Add extension if it is included. This is a bit wonky, only non-.js things pass
                    //an extension, this method probably needs to be reworked.
                    url = moduleName + (ext || '');
                } else {
                    //A module that needs to be converted to a path.
                    paths = config.paths;

                    syms = moduleName.split('/');
                    //For each module name segment, see if there is a path
                    //registered for it. Start with most specific name
                    //and work up from it.
                    for (i = syms.length; i > 0; i -= 1) {
                        parentModule = syms.slice(0, i).join('/');

                        parentPath = getOwn(paths, parentModule);
                        if (parentPath) {
                            //If an array, it means there are a few choices,
                            //Choose the one that is desired
                            if (isArray(parentPath)) {
                                parentPath = parentPath[0];
                            }
                            syms.splice(0, i, parentPath);
                            break;
                        }
                    }

                    //Join the path parts together, then figure out if baseUrl is needed.
                    url = syms.join('/');
                    url += (ext || (/^data\:|\?/.test(url) || skipExt ? '' : '.js'));
                    url = (url.charAt(0) === '/' || url.match(/^[\w\+\.\-]+:/) ? '' : config.baseUrl) + url;
                }

                return config.urlArgs ? url +
                                        ((url.indexOf('?') === -1 ? '?' : '&') +
                                         config.urlArgs) : url;
            },

            //Delegates to req.load. Broken out as a separate function to
            //allow overriding in the optimizer.
            load: function (id, url) {
                req.load(context, id, url);
            },

            /**
             * Executes a module callback function. Broken out as a separate function
             * solely to allow the build system to sequence the files in the built
             * layer in the right sequence.
             *
             * @private
             */
            execCb: function (name, callback, args, exports) {
                return callback.apply(exports, args);
            },

            /**
             * callback for script loads, used to check status of loading.
             *
             * @param {Event} evt the event from the browser for the script
             * that was loaded.
             */
            onScriptLoad: function (evt) {
                //Using currentTarget instead of target for Firefox 2.0's sake. Not
                //all old browsers will be supported, but this one was easy enough
                //to support and still makes sense.
                if (evt.type === 'load' ||
                        (readyRegExp.test((evt.currentTarget || evt.srcElement).readyState))) {
                    //Reset interactive script so a script node is not held onto for
                    //to long.
                    interactiveScript = null;

                    //Pull out the name of the module and the context.
                    var data = getScriptData(evt);
                    context.completeLoad(data.id);
                }
            },

            /**
             * Callback for script errors.
             */
            onScriptError: function (evt) {
                var data = getScriptData(evt);
                if (!hasPathFallback(data.id)) {
                    var parents = [];
                    eachProp(registry, function(value, key) {
                        if (key.indexOf('_@r') !== 0) {
                            each(value.depMaps, function(depMap) {
                                if (depMap.id === data.id) {
                                    parents.push(key);
                                }
                                return true;
                            });
                        }
                    });
                    return onError(makeError('scripterror', 'Script error for "' + data.id +
                                             (parents.length ?
                                             '", needed by: ' + parents.join(', ') :
                                             '"'), evt, [data.id]));
                }
            }
        };

        context.require = context.makeRequire();
        return context;
    }

    /**
     * Main entry point.
     *
     * If the only argument to require is a string, then the module that
     * is represented by that string is fetched for the appropriate context.
     *
     * If the first argument is an array, then it will be treated as an array
     * of dependency string names to fetch. An optional function callback can
     * be specified to execute when all of those dependencies are available.
     *
     * Make a local req variable to help Caja compliance (it assumes things
     * on a require that are not standardized), and to give a short
     * name for minification/local scope use.
     */
    req = requirejs = function (deps, callback, errback, optional) {

        //Find the right context, use default
        var context, config,
            contextName = defContextName;

        // Determine if have config object in the call.
        if (!isArray(deps) && typeof deps !== 'string') {
            // deps is a config object
            config = deps;
            if (isArray(callback)) {
                // Adjust args if there are dependencies
                deps = callback;
                callback = errback;
                errback = optional;
            } else {
                deps = [];
            }
        }

        if (config && config.context) {
            contextName = config.context;
        }

        context = getOwn(contexts, contextName);
        if (!context) {
            context = contexts[contextName] = req.s.newContext(contextName);
        }

        if (config) {
            context.configure(config);
        }

        return context.require(deps, callback, errback);
    };

    /**
     * Support require.config() to make it easier to cooperate with other
     * AMD loaders on globally agreed names.
     */
    req.config = function (config) {
        return req(config);
    };

    /**
     * Execute something after the current tick
     * of the event loop. Override for other envs
     * that have a better solution than setTimeout.
     * @param  {Function} fn function to execute later.
     */
    req.nextTick = typeof setTimeout !== 'undefined' ? function (fn) {
        setTimeout(fn, 4);
    } : function (fn) { fn(); };

    /**
     * Export require as a global, but only if it does not already exist.
     */
    if (!require) {
        require = req;
    }

    req.version = version;

    //Used to filter out dependencies that are already paths.
    req.jsExtRegExp = /^\/|:|\?|\.js$/;
    req.isBrowser = isBrowser;
    s = req.s = {
        contexts: contexts,
        newContext: newContext
    };

    //Create default context.
    req({});

    //Exports some context-sensitive methods on global require.
    each([
        'toUrl',
        'undef',
        'defined',
        'specified'
    ], function (prop) {
        //Reference from contexts instead of early binding to default context,
        //so that during builds, the latest instance of the default context
        //with its config gets used.
        req[prop] = function () {
            var ctx = contexts[defContextName];
            return ctx.require[prop].apply(ctx, arguments);
        };
    });

    if (isBrowser) {
        head = s.head = document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0];
        //If BASE tag is in play, using appendChild is a problem for IE6.
        //When that browser dies, this can be removed. Details in this jQuery bug:
        //http://dev.jquery.com/ticket/2709
        baseElement = document.getElementsByTagName('base')[0];
        if (baseElement) {
            head = s.head = baseElement.parentNode;
        }
    }

    /**
     * Any errors that require explicitly generates will be passed to this
     * function. Intercept/override it if you want custom error handling.
     * @param {Error} err the error object.
     */
    req.onError = defaultOnError;

    /**
     * Creates the node for the load command. Only used in browser envs.
     */
    req.createNode = function (config, moduleName, url) {
        var node = config.xhtml ?
                document.createElementNS('http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml', 'html:script') :
                document.createElement('script');
        node.type = config.scriptType || 'text/javascript';
        node.charset = 'utf-8';
        node.async = true;
        return node;
    };

    /**
     * Does the request to load a module for the browser case.
     * Make this a separate function to allow other environments
     * to override it.
     *
     * @param {Object} context the require context to find state.
     * @param {String} moduleName the name of the module.
     * @param {Object} url the URL to the module.
     */
    req.load = function (context, moduleName, url) {
        var config = (context && context.config) || {},
            node;
        if (isBrowser) {
            //In the browser so use a script tag
            node = req.createNode(config, moduleName, url);
            if (config.onNodeCreated) {
                config.onNodeCreated(node, config, moduleName, url);
            }

            node.setAttribute('data-requirecontext', context.contextName);
            node.setAttribute('data-requiremodule', moduleName);

            //Set up load listener. Test attachEvent first because IE9 has
            //a subtle issue in its addEventListener and script onload firings
            //that do not match the behavior of all other browsers with
            //addEventListener support, which fire the onload event for a
            //script right after the script execution. See:
            //https://connect.microsoft.com/IE/feedback/details/648057/script-onload-event-is-not-fired-immediately-after-script-execution
            //UNFORTUNATELY Opera implements attachEvent but does not follow the script
            //script execution mode.
            if (node.attachEvent &&
                    //Check if node.attachEvent is artificially added by custom script or
                    //natively supported by browser
                    //read https://github.com/jrburke/requirejs/issues/187
                    //if we can NOT find [native code] then it must NOT natively supported.
                    //in IE8, node.attachEvent does not have toString()
                    //Note the test for "[native code" with no closing brace, see:
                    //https://github.com/jrburke/requirejs/issues/273
                    !(node.attachEvent.toString && node.attachEvent.toString().indexOf('[native code') < 0) &&
                    !isOpera) {
                //Probably IE. IE (at least 6-8) do not fire
                //script onload right after executing the script, so
                //we cannot tie the anonymous define call to a name.
                //However, IE reports the script as being in 'interactive'
                //readyState at the time of the define call.
                useInteractive = true;

                node.attachEvent('onreadystatechange', context.onScriptLoad);
                //It would be great to add an error handler here to catch
                //404s in IE9+. However, onreadystatechange will fire before
                //the error handler, so that does not help. If addEventListener
                //is used, then IE will fire error before load, but we cannot
                //use that pathway given the connect.microsoft.com issue
                //mentioned above about not doing the 'script execute,
                //then fire the script load event listener before execute
                //next script' that other browsers do.
                //Best hope: IE10 fixes the issues,
                //and then destroys all installs of IE 6-9.
                //node.attachEvent('onerror', context.onScriptError);
            } else {
                node.addEventListener('load', context.onScriptLoad, false);
                node.addEventListener('error', context.onScriptError, false);
            }
            node.src = url;

            //For some cache cases in IE 6-8, the script executes before the end
            //of the appendChild execution, so to tie an anonymous define
            //call to the module name (which is stored on the node), hold on
            //to a reference to this node, but clear after the DOM insertion.
            currentlyAddingScript = node;
            if (baseElement) {
                head.insertBefore(node, baseElement);
            } else {
                head.appendChild(node);
            }
            currentlyAddingScript = null;

            return node;
        } else if (isWebWorker) {
            try {
                //In a web worker, use importScripts. This is not a very
                //efficient use of importScripts, importScripts will block until
                //its script is downloaded and evaluated. However, if web workers
                //are in play, the expectation is that a build has been done so
                //that only one script needs to be loaded anyway. This may need
                //to be reevaluated if other use cases become common.
                importScripts(url);

                //Account for anonymous modules
                context.completeLoad(moduleName);
            } catch (e) {
                context.onError(makeError('importscripts',
                                'importScripts failed for ' +
                                    moduleName + ' at ' + url,
                                e,
                                [moduleName]));
            }
        }
    };

    function getInteractiveScript() {
        if (interactiveScript && interactiveScript.readyState === 'interactive') {
            return interactiveScript;
        }

        eachReverse(scripts(), function (script) {
            if (script.readyState === 'interactive') {
                return (interactiveScript = script);
            }
        });
        return interactiveScript;
    }

    //Look for a data-main script attribute, which could also adjust the baseUrl.
    if (isBrowser && !cfg.skipDataMain) {
        //Figure out baseUrl. Get it from the script tag with require.js in it.
        eachReverse(scripts(), function (script) {
            //Set the 'head' where we can append children by
            //using the script's parent.
            if (!head) {
                head = script.parentNode;
            }

            //Look for a data-main attribute to set main script for the page
            //to load. If it is there, the path to data main becomes the
            //baseUrl, if it is not already set.
            dataMain = script.getAttribute('data-main');
            if (dataMain) {
                //Preserve dataMain in case it is a path (i.e. contains '?')
                mainScript = dataMain;

                //Set final baseUrl if there is not already an explicit one.
                if (!cfg.baseUrl) {
                    //Pull off the directory of data-main for use as the
                    //baseUrl.
                    src = mainScript.split('/');
                    mainScript = src.pop();
                    subPath = src.length ? src.join('/')  + '/' : './';

                    cfg.baseUrl = subPath;
                }

                //Strip off any trailing .js since mainScript is now
                //like a module name.
                mainScript = mainScript.replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');

                //If mainScript is still a path, fall back to dataMain
                if (req.jsExtRegExp.test(mainScript)) {
                    mainScript = dataMain;
                }

                //Put the data-main script in the files to load.
                cfg.deps = cfg.deps ? cfg.deps.concat(mainScript) : [mainScript];

                return true;
            }
        });
    }

    /**
     * The function that handles definitions of modules. Differs from
     * require() in that a string for the module should be the first argument,
     * and the function to execute after dependencies are loaded should
     * return a value to define the module corresponding to the first argument's
     * name.
     */
    define = function (name, deps, callback) {
        var node, context;

        //Allow for anonymous modules
        if (typeof name !== 'string') {
            //Adjust args appropriately
            callback = deps;
            deps = name;
            name = null;
        }

        //This module may not have dependencies
        if (!isArray(deps)) {
            callback = deps;
            deps = null;
        }

        //If no name, and callback is a function, then figure out if it a
        //CommonJS thing with dependencies.
        if (!deps && isFunction(callback)) {
            deps = [];
            //Remove comments from the callback string,
            //look for require calls, and pull them into the dependencies,
            //but only if there are function args.
            if (callback.length) {
                callback
                    .toString()
                    .replace(commentRegExp, '')
                    .replace(cjsRequireRegExp, function (match, dep) {
                        deps.push(dep);
                    });

                //May be a CommonJS thing even without require calls, but still
                //could use exports, and module. Avoid doing exports and module
                //work though if it just needs require.
                //REQUIRES the function to expect the CommonJS variables in the
                //order listed below.
                deps = (callback.length === 1 ? ['require'] : ['require', 'exports', 'module']).concat(deps);
            }
        }

        //If in IE 6-8 and hit an anonymous define() call, do the interactive
        //work.
        if (useInteractive) {
            node = currentlyAddingScript || getInteractiveScript();
            if (node) {
                if (!name) {
                    name = node.getAttribute('data-requiremodule');
                }
                context = contexts[node.getAttribute('data-requirecontext')];
            }
        }

        //Always save off evaluating the def call until the script onload handler.
        //This allows multiple modules to be in a file without prematurely
        //tracing dependencies, and allows for anonymous module support,
        //where the module name is not known until the script onload event
        //occurs. If no context, use the global queue, and get it processed
        //in the onscript load callback.
        if (context) {
            context.defQueue.push([name, deps, callback]);
            context.defQueueMap[name] = true;
        } else {
            globalDefQueue.push([name, deps, callback]);
        }
    };

    define.amd = {
        jQuery: true
    };

    /**
     * Executes the text. Normally just uses eval, but can be modified
     * to use a better, environment-specific call. Only used for transpiling
     * loader plugins, not for plain JS modules.
     * @param {String} text the text to execute/evaluate.
     */
    req.exec = function (text) {
        /*jslint evil: true */
        return eval(text);
    };

    //Set up with config info.
    req(cfg);
}(this));
",
"ok": true,
"headers": [
[
"content-type",
"application/javascript"
]
],
"status": 200,
"status_text": ""
}
},
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 1000
}
},
"source": [
"# use all predictors at each timestep\n",
"# without selection criteria you would expect performance to be lower, and indeed it is\n",
"configure_plotly_browser_state()\n",
"backtestmodel = BacktestModel(X, Y,\n",
" create_model=LinearRegression,\n",
" coef_dict_param=\"all\",\n",
" startindex=FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS,\n",
" fit_missing='mean',\n",
" scaler=None)\n",
"backtestmodel.gen_predictions(verbose=False)\n",
"backtestmodel.gen_returns(calc_returns, verbose=False)\n",
"backtestmodel.report_returns(start_date=start_date_str, freq='M')\n",
"backtestmodel.evaluate_predictions()\n",
"backtestmodel.evaluate_quantiles(chart=True, verbose=False)\n",
"perf_all_preds = backtestmodel.cumulative_return\n",
"mychart([perf_all_preds],[\"All preds\"], title=\"OLS all predictors\")\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
"text/html": [
"\n",
" <script src=\"/static/components/requirejs/require.js\"></script>\n",
" <script>\n",
" requirejs.config({\n",
" paths: {\n",
" base: '/static/base',\n",
" plotly: 'https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-latest.min.js?noext',\n",
" },\n",
" });\n",
" </script>\n",
" "
],
"text/plain": [
"<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"
]
},
"metadata": {}
},
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"................................................................................\n",
"15:09:25 Still training step 80 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:09:29 Still training step 160 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:09:34 Still training step 240 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:09:39 Still training step 320 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:09:45 Still training step 400 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:09:50 Still training step 480 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:09:56 Still training step 560 of 563\n",
"...\n",
"Mean return: 2.781%\n",
"Monthly Sharpe ratio: 0.506\n",
"OOS MSE across all predictions: 43.8692\n",
"In-sample MSE: 34.7467\n",
"Variance: 39.4097\n",
"R-squared: -0.1132\n",
"Avg rank correlation (Kendall's tau): 0.0246 (Expected: 0)\n",
"5-quintile accuracy: 0.2161 (Expected: 0.2)\n",
"Long/short/flat accuracy: 0.4657 (Expected: 0.44)\n",
"Excess true positive in quintiles 1 + 5: 225.800000\n"
]
},
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
"image/png": 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U8IiIiESq0JzD0xvY4JzbbGZPAmOdc7kAzrkdvj4XAO/42jea2XqgOzCvtINqSEtERERCyeXANN/jo4BeZrbAzL41s+N97U2ArSX2SfK1lUoVHhERkUgVwAqPmQ0EBpZomuycm3xQn1igPzDK1xQN1AF6AscD082s5V95fyU8IiIi4ne+5GZyOd3OBpY451J9z5OAD5xzDvjJzLxAPYrm+DQrsV9TX1upNKQlIiISqZwL3FYxV/D7cBbAh8DpAGZ2FBAL7AQ+Bi43sypm1gJoA/xU1oFV4REREZGgM7NqQB9gUInmV4BXzOy/QB5wja/a87OZTQdWAQXAkLJWaIESHhERkcgVQqu0nHP7gLoHteUB/1dK/0eBRyt6fA1piYiISNhThUdERCRShVCFx99U4REREZGwpwqPiIhIpCrnHlfhRBUeERERCXtKeERERCTsaUhLREQkUmnSsoiIiEj4UIVHREQkUlX8lg+Vnio8IiIiEvZU4REREYlUETSHJ2QTnuOPGxDsEMLefVEtgh1C2FvWtEuwQ4gIy/fXCnYIYW8RBcEOQeR/ErIJj4iIiPhZBFV4NIdHREREwp4qPCIiIpFKt5YQERERCR+q8IiIiEQo59V1eERERETChio8IiIikUqrtERERETChyo8IiIikUqrtERERETChxIeERERCXsa0hIREYlUWpYuIiIiEj5U4REREYlUWpYuIiIiEj5U4REREYlUqvCIiIiIhA9VeERERCKV0yotERERkbChCo+IiEik0hweERERkfChCo+IiEik0pWWRURERMKHKjwiIiKRymkOj4iIiEjYUIVHREQkUmkOj4iIiEj4UMIjIiIiYU9DWiIiIhHK6cKDIiIiIuFDFR4REZFIpUnLIiIiIuFDFR4REZFIpQsPioiIiIQPVXhEREQilebwiIiIiIQPVXhEREQila7DIyIiIhI+VOERERGJVJrDIyIiIhI+VOERERGJVLoOj4iIiEhgmFlbM1tWYss0s+ElXr/dzJyZ1fM9NzN7zszWm9kKMzuuvPdQhUdERCRShcgcHufcWqAzgJl5gGRghu95M+AsYEuJXc4G2vi2HsAk389SqcIjIiIioaQ3sME5t9n3/GlgJFAyO7sAeN0VmQ/UMrNGZR1UCY+IiIiEksuBaQBmdgGQ7JxbflCfJsDWEs+TfG2l0pCWiIhIhHIBvPCgmQ0EBpZomuycm3xQn1igPzDKzOKBeygazvqfKeERERERv/MlN5PL6XY2sMQ5l2pmHYEWwHIzA2gKLDGz7hTN8WlWYr+mvrZSKeERERGJVCEyabmEK/ANZznnVgINfnvBzDYB3ZxzO83sY2Comb1D0WTlDOfctrIOrIRHREREgs7MqgF9gEEV6D4TOAdYD2QD15W3gxKePyGhRnXGjB9F67Ytcc4xZsRj9Op9Aqf164XX62X3zj3cd+sjpKXupNuJXXjm1cdJ3pICwJyZ3/LS+KlBPoPQF1Mjnq5PDaBGu6bgHItGTKZwfz7HPX49nioxeAsLWXr3VHYv+5XohDi6TxhMfJO6WLSHXyZ9xuZ//yfYpxDyYls0odnzd/3+vFlDdjzzJns+mEOz5+8ipukR5CelsmXoWLyZ+wCo1qMjDe8bgEV7KNydycYrRgUr/EojpkY8PcfdSE3fZ3n+bVMo3J9H97HXE1U1BldQyMJRr5K+7FcanHA0p04dQdbWNAC2zlzIf5/+MMhnEPqq1ojn8rGDaNi2KTiYNvJFNi9ZR69r+nLS1WfhCr2smrOUT8a+XbxPrcZ1uXvWU3zxzHvMnfJpEKMPESFU4XHO7QPqlvF68xKPHTDkzxxfCc+fMPKR4fwwZz533Dia6Jho4uKqsmHtr7zwxBQArrzhUgbddh2P3PUkAEsXLGfYVXcGM+RK59iHr2L7N8uZP+BZLMZDdFwVek6+hdXjP2D7nOU0PONYOt13Bd9e/Citr+vD3l+S+fGap4itm0C/78ax5YMfcPmFwT6NkJa3MZkN591S9CQqirbzXiPzy3nUu+lSsn5czs4X36PeTZdQ/+ZLSX38VaISqtHooZvZfN0Y8lPS8NStGdwTqCS6PXQVKXNX8N3A54iK8eCJq0Kvl4axcvwHpHyzgsZnHEuXe69g9iWPApC2YC1zr3kqyFFXLn8bcw2rv13Gq4OfxhPjISauCq1POIYOfbrx5Nl3UZhXQPW6NQ7Y58J7r2b13GVBiliCScvSK6h6QjW69uzMjLc/AaAgv4C9mVnsy8ou7lM1viqO0MmWK5vohDjq92zHprfnAuDyC8nPzMY5R3T1OKDof8052/cUve4gunrVon3jq5K3JwtXEDmXST8cqp94LHmbt5GfkkaNPj3Y8/7XAOx5/2tq9OkJQK0LTiXzyx/JTymqPhSmZwQt3soiJiGOBj3bsuHtuQB4S3yWYxJKfJZTdwcvyEquakIcLbsfzYJ/fwNAYX4h+zOzOekfffh60kcU5hUAkJWeWbxPh7O6kb51B9vXJQUl5pDkvIHbgkwVngpqktiY3el7eOjZ0bQ9pg2rVqzhifueISd7P0PvHsT5l/Yja+8+brx4aPE+nbp2YPrXr5GWupPxD05gw9qNQTyD0FctsQG56Xvp9swgah6TyJ4VG1l23xssv/8Nek27i073X4lFGd/0fxCADa98xYmv3c65yyYQUz2O+YOeL8qCpMJqnn8KGZ8UDQNG16tFQVrRF3BB2m6i69UCiobALNpDi7f/SVS1ONJf/Zg9M+YELebKoHpiffan76Xn0wOp3T6RXSs2sei+N1h8/5ucMW0kXe6/EjPjK99nGaBe19acM+tRclL3sOSht8n4pcwFJxGvTrMGZKVncsW4m2l8dCJJKzcy48HXqN+yES27t+OcOy8nPzePjx99k60rfiU2vgq9b+rPpP97lNMHnh/s8CUIAl7hMbNyJxaFIk+0h3Ydj+LdV2fw9z7XkpO9n+uHXgXAhLEv0bfrRXz2/pdcfv3FAKxesZZ+3f7GZb2vYdrL7/H01LHBDL9SiIqOolbH5vz62my+Pms0BTm5tBt2Pi2vPpPlY95kZrdbWD7mTbo+NQCAI07rRMbPm/ms81BmnXkPXR67prgSJOWzmGgSencn4/PvD93Blzuax0Nch9ZsuuEBNl17P/WHXU5si8aBC7QSMo+HOh2bs+71r/n8rHspyM6l/dDzaXNNbxaPeYsPu93K4gfeosf4os/yrpWb+LD7cGb2Gc3aV77ilFdGBPkMQp/H46Fphxb88OYsnjp3FHk5ufS++QKiPB7ia1bnmQvv5ZPH3uKaF4pux9Rv+KV8+/JM8rJzgxx5iPG6wG1BFowhrQdLe8HMBprZIjNblJ6dGsiYypWasoPUbWmsXLoKgFmffkO7Tm0P6DPzg68489zTAdiXlU1Odg4A3389j+iYaGrV0dyHsmSn7CJn2y52Ld0AQPKnP1GrY3OaX9aL5M8WApD0yQLqdGkFQPPLTyF5ZlH7vk2p7NuSRkLrMq8sLiVUP7Ur+3/eQOHOoiHCgp17iK5fG4Do+rUpSC9qz9++k6zvluBycincnUn2T/+larsWQYu7MsjetovsbbtI932Wt3z6E3U6Nqflpb3Y6vvMbvlkAfU6F32WC7JyKPB9EafMWU5UjIcqdaoHJ/hKYs/2dDK272LLsvUALJ+5gKYdmrNnezorvvwJgC3LN+C8jmp1Ejiyc2vOH/UP7vv+eU69/mzOHHIhJ1/dN5inIAHml4THd+fSQ20rgSNK2885N9k51805161ufKndgiI9bRepyakc2SoRgB69uvHrLxtJbNG0uM/p/XqxcX3RrT/q1q9T3N6hy9FEmbFnl+Y+lCU3LYOclHSqtypKWhqc3J7MX5LJSd1N/ROOLm7L2rgdgOzkdBqc3B6AKvVqkNCqEfu27AhO8JVQzfNPZc8nv69qy5y9gFoX9wag1sW9yZy1AIC9s+YT3609eKKwqlWIO7YtuRs0B6Is+9MyyE7ZRYLvs9ywV3sy1hV9lhv4PstHnNyeTN9nuWr93/8zVLdzSyzKyN2VFfjAK5G9aRnsSUmnfsui33GbkzqwfV0y//1qEa17Fv1dqN+iEZ6YaPbt2svzlz3AwycP4+GTh/HtK58z+4UP+f71L4N5CiHBeV3AtmDz1xyeI4C+wMEz8gz40U/v6XdjRz/NPyeOISYmhqTNKdw//FEeeOpumrc+Eq/Xy7ak7Twy8gkA+px/OpddcxEFBYXk7s/lrpvuD3L0lcPS0a/T/YXBRMVEs2/LDhYNf4mULxfT+eGrMU8U3tx8Ft/5LwBWPz2D45+9iT5zxoLBykffIU9fEhVicVWofnJnUu6dUNy288X3aDbhbmpfdhb5yTvYOrRoGDZ3QxJZ3y6m9cwJ4HXsnv4lub9sLu3Q4rPo3tc4acLNRMVEk7VlB/NHTCbpy8V0fegqojxRFObm89OdLwOQeF532lzdG1dQSOH+fL6/+YUgR185vP/AVK56ZiiemGjSt+5g2h0vkpezn8ufuImRXz5JYX4Bb98+MdhhSogw54dJnmb2MjDVOfeHyQFm9rZz7sryjnFswxODnw6GuftMwxL+1i5OVb1AWL6/VrBDCHuLYguCHUJEeHrTOxbI99t7y3kB+65NeO7TgJ7bwfxS4XHO3VDGa+UmOyIiIiKHk5ali4iIRKoA3i092HThQREREQl7SnhEREQk7GlIS0REJFKFwHLxQFGFR0RERMKeKjwiIiKRShUeERERkfChCo+IiEiE8sfFh0OVKjwiIiIS9lThERERiVSawyMiIiISPlThERERiVSq8IiIiIiED1V4REREIpRThUdEREQkfKjCIyIiEqlU4REREREJH6rwiIiIRCpvsAMIHFV4REREJOwp4REREZGwpyEtERGRCKVl6SIiIiJhRBUeERGRSKUKj4iIiEj4UIVHREQkUmlZuoiIiEj4UIVHREQkQmmVloiIiEgYUYVHREQkUmkOj4iIiEj4UIVHREQkQmkOj4iIiEgYUYVHREQkUmkOj4iIiEj4UIVHREQkQjlVeERERETChxIeERERCXsa0hIREYlUGtISERERCR+q8IiIiEQoTVoWERERCSOq8IiIiEQqVXhEREREwocqPCIiIhEqVObwmFlb4N8lmloC9wNNgPOBPGADcJ1zbo9vn1HADUAhcItz7suy3kMVHhEREQkq59xa51xn51xnoCuQDcwAZgEdnHOdgF+AUQBmdgxwOdAe6AdMNDNPWe+hCo+IiEiECpUKz0F6Axucc5uBzSXa5wOX+B5fALzjnMsFNprZeqA7MK+0g6rCIyIiIqHkcmDaIdqvBz73PW4CbC3xWpKvrVSq8IiIiESoQFZ4zGwgMLBE02Tn3OSD+sQC/fENXZVoHw0UAG/91fdXwiMiIiJ+50tuJpfT7WxgiXMu9bcGM7sWOA/o7ZxzvuZkoFmJ/Zr62koVsglPuyoNgh1C2GvN3mCHEPZS91ULdggRoVvt9GCHEPZu3Lwq2CFEhKcD/YbOAv2O5bmCEsNZZtYPGAmc6pzLLtHvY+BtMxsPNAbaAD+VdeCQTXhEREQkcphZNaAPMKhE8wSgCjDLzADmO+ducs79bGbTgVUUDXUNcc4VlnV8JTwiIiIRKpRWaTnn9gF1D2prXUb/R4FHK3p8rdISERGRsKeER0RERMKehrREREQilPOG3KRlv1GFR0RERMKeKjwiIiIRKpQmLfubKjwiIiIS9lThERERiVAu9C486Deq8IiIiEjYU4VHREQkQmkOj4iIiEgYUYVHREQkQuk6PCIiIiJhRBUeERGRCOVcsCMIHFV4REREJOypwiMiIhKhNIdHREREJIxUqMJjZnFAonNurZ/jERERkQBRhacEMzsfWAZ84Xve2cw+9ndgIiIiIodLRYa0HgC6A3sAnHPLgBZ+jElERETksKrIkFa+cy7D7ICyVwQtZBMREQlPkbQsvSIJz89mdiXgMbM2wC3Aj/4NS0REROTwqciQ1jCgPZALTAMygeH+DEpERET8z3ktYFuwlVvhcc5lA6N9m4iIiEilU2rCY2afUMZcHedcf79EJCIiIgHhXPArL4FSVoVnXMCiEBEREfGjUhMe59y3gQxEREREAoXvmRIAACAASURBVMt5gx1B4JQ1pDXdOXeZma3kEENbzrlOfo1MRERE5DApa0jrVt/P8wIRiIiIiASWN4Lm8JS6LN05t833cLBzbnPJDRgcmPBERERE/ncVuQ5Pn0O0nX24AxEREZHAcs4CtgVbWXN4bqaoktPSzFaUeCkB+MHfgYmIiIgcLmXN4Xkb+Bz4J3B3ifa9zrldfo1KRERE/C4UroAcKGUtS88AMoArzMwDHOHrX93MqjvntgQoRhEREZH/Sbm3ljCzocADQCrw24p9B2hZuoiISCWmu6UfaDjQ1jmX7u9gRERERPyhIqu0tlI0tCUiIiJSKVWkwvMrMNfMPgNyf2t0zo33W1QiIiLid5q0fKAtvi3Wt4mIiIhUKuUmPM65BwMRiIiIiARWJN1aoqwLDz7jnBtuZp9w6JuH9vdrZCIiIiKHSVkVnjd8P8cFIhAREREJrFC45UOglHXhwcW+n98GLhwRERGRw68iFx7cyKGHtFr6JSIREREJCF148EDdSjyuClwK1PFPOCIiIiKHX0VWaR18heVnzGwxcL9/QhIREZFA0CqtEszsuBJPoyiq+FSkMiQiIiISEiqSuDxV4nEBsAm4zC/RiIiISMBolVYJzrnTAxFIZRBfoxqDHh9Cs6MSAcekOydw7Cld6H1FHzLTMwGY9uSbLPtmMa2ObcPAfw4GwAzefeYdFn65IIjRh74qLZvQfMKdxc9jExuyffzb7Hp/Ds1fGEls0wbkJe1g0+DHKczcV9wvrlNrjprxJJuGPUnGzB+DEXqlE10jnqPHD6Jau2bgYNWISXiz82j35I14qlUlZ2saP9/8PIVZOVRtVp+e340ne0MKABmL17F25L+CfAahLaZFExqPH/X782aNSH/uDTI+mk3j8aOIaXIE+cmppIz4J97MLKJqVKfhoyOITWyENzeP7aOfJm/d5iCeQeVQs2YNJk16nGOOOQrn4Kab7qRJk4aMHj2Cdu1a06tXf5YsWQnA5ZdfyPDhA4v37djxaE444VxWrFgVrPAlwMyVMUXbzLoAtwPH+JoWAU8459abWbRzrsBfgf39yAtDbu744KduYc3CVcx5ZzaemGiqxFXhnOvPZ392Dp9O/uiAvrFVYynIL8Bb6KVWg9o88fnT3NT9eryF3iBF/0ejCJ1Y/iAqivYLpvLLhXdQ7+pzKdyzlx2T3qfBzRfjqVmdbWNfK+7X6q2HcLl5pE+fHXIJT/r+uGCHcEjHPDeYPQvWkPLWHCzGgyeuCl2m38u6B99gz7zVNLriNOISG/Dr49Op2qw+x755FwtOvSPYYZeqae3MYIdQuqgoWn37Bpv/PoLaV55HYcZedk15lzoDLiWqRgI7n3qF+nfegDc7h/QX3ia2RVMa3D+EpOtGlX/sAOq8OfQSgylTnuKHHxby6qvvEBMTQ3x8HA0bNsDr9TJhwmOMGvVoccJTUvv2bZk+fQrt258ShKjLlpOzOaAllyXNLgjYd+1xWz8Kajmp1Lulm9nFwLvAHOBa3zYfeM/MTgC+DEB8ISMuIZ6je7RnzjuzASjMLyC7RJXhYHn784qTm5gqMRG19O9wSDipE7lbtpOfnEbNPt3Z9f4cAHa9P4eaZ/Uo7lf/2vPI+PxHCnZmBCvUSseTEEetE44m5a2i36nLL6QgM5v4Vo3YM281ALu+XUmDc3uUdRipoPgTOpO/dRsFKTuo3vsEMj4s+huS8eFsEs48AYDYVolkz18OQN7GJGKaHIGnbq2gxVwZ1KiRwMkn9+DVV98BID8/n4yMTNauXc+6db+Wue9ll/Xn3Xc/CUSYEkJKTXiAMcCZzrlXnHMrfNsrwIXAN0CZ4zNm1s7MeptZ9YPa+/3PUQdBg2ZHkJmewc3jbmHszPEMenwIVeKqAND36nN54otnuOnJoVSrUa14n9ad2zBu1nOM+/JZ/jV6UkhVd0Jdrf6nsOfj/wAQU68WBTt2A1CwYzcx9Yq+CGKOqEPNvj3Z+cbnQYuzMopLbEBeeiZHP3sz3WePpd34QUTFVyFr7VbqnV10FYoG5/ekSpO6JfapT/fZYzluxhhq9WgXrNArpRrnnErmZ0XXb/XUrUVhWtFnuTBtd3FSk7v2V6r3OQmAqh2PIqZxA6Ib1gtOwJVE8+bN2LkzncmTxzFv3kwmTnyc+PiKVVQvueR8pk//qPyOEcDrLGBbsJWV8EQ75zYd3Ohr2+ycu6e0Hc3sFuAjYBjwXzO7oMTLj/21UIPL44miRYdWzHrzc+4+5zb2Z+/ngsEXM+vNz7nllJu46+wR7N6xm6vuu654n/XL1nFHn1u4p/+dXDj4YmKqxATxDCoPi4mm5pnd2fPZD4d8/bdiWZMxA0gZ+1pkXTnrMLBoDwkdW5D82ix+OvNuvNn7aT7sAlYPf5Gm157F8V/9k+jqcbi8ohHr3NTdfH/cEH46827WjXmd9pOG4akemkN1IScmmmpn9GDvF98d+nXfZ3fX5Hfx1KjGkTMmUOv/+rN/9QbQf5DKFB3toXPnDkyZ8iYnnHAO2dnZ3HHH4HL3O/74zmRn57Bq1S8BiFJCSVkJT76ZJR7caGZHArnlHHcA0NU5dyFwGnCfmd362yFK28nMBprZIjNbtCFrUzlvEVjp29NJ35bO+mXrAFgwcx4tOrQkY2cGzuvFOcecabNofWybP+ybvD6J/dn7fZOdpTwJp3Ul+78bKNi5B4D8nXuIblAbgOgGtYvb4zq1pvnzd3DM91Ooec6JNH34pgOGu+TQclPSyU1JJ3PJegB2fLKAhI4tyF6fwrK/P8bCs0axfcYPZG9OBcDlFVCwOwuAvSs2krMplfhWjYIWf2VSvVc3cldtoDC96DNbmL4HT/2iz7Knfm0KdxUNxXr3ZbP9nqfZfNFQtt81jug6Ncnfuj1ocVcGycnbSU7exsKFywCYMWMmnTt3KHe/Sy89n+nTP/Z3eJWGcxawLdjKG9KabWbXmllH33Yd8BXlX3QwyjmXBcUVodOAs81sPGUkPM65yc65bs65bq2qN/8Tp+F/GWl7SN+2k0YtGwPQ4aROJK3bSi3fFzHA8X17sHXtFgDqN2tAlKfo11uvSX0at2pKWtKOwAdeCdXu36t4OAsgc/ZP1Ln4DADqXHwGGbN+AmD1yQNY5dsyZv5I0n0vkvGVVsKVJy8tg9yU9OKkpXavDuz7JYmYejWKOpjRYsTfSH5tFgAxdRMgquifbdUjGxDXshE5vmRIypZw7mlkfja3+HnWnPnUvPBMAGpeeCZZX88DICqhGsQULZqteWk/sheuxLsvO+DxViapqWkkJW2jTZuiuxyddtpJrFmzrsx9zIyLLz6Pd99VwhNqzKytmS0rsWWa2XAzq2Nms8xsne9nbV9/M7PnzGy9ma046JqBh1TWzUM/9N1H63aKhqYAfgYuc84tL+e4qWbW2Tm3zHesLDM7D3gF6FiBcw9JU8dMYdiztxEdE82OLalMuuM5rn1wAM2PaYFzjrSkHUy5ZxIA7bodwwWD/0ZhfiHOeXn53pfYu3tvkM8g9EXFVSGhV2e23jOxuC114vs0nziSun/vQ17yDjYNfiKIEYaHtfdMpf3EYVhsNPs372DVrZNodNkpNL3uLAB2zPyJbdPmAlCr59G0HHkZrqAQ53WsHTmFgj2lT9iXIhZXhWondSF1zHPFbelTptP46XuoeXFf8lN2kDKiaIQ/tlUzGo29HRzkrtvM9nufCVbYlcptt41h6tRniY2NYdOmLQwceAf9+/dl/PgHqVevDh98MJUVK1bRv//VAJx8cg+SklLYtGlrkCOXgznn1gKdAczMAyQDM4C7ga+dc2PN7G7f87uAs4E2vq0HMMn3s1RlLkv/q8ysKVDgnPtDTdbMTnLOHXpyRgmhuCw93IT0svQwEarL0sNNSC9LDxOhuCw9HAV6WfqCxn8L2Hdtj5QPKnRuZnYWMMY5d5KZrQVOc85tM7NGwFznXFsze8n3eJpvn+J+pR3XL7eIcM4llfFaucmOiIiIRKzLgWm+x0eUSGK2A0f4HjcBSpbqknxtpSY8Zc3hERERkTDmAriVXJjk236/9LWPmcUC/Sm6DuCBsRYNSf3lipRuAioiIiJ+55ybDEwup9vZwBLn3G8rI1LNrFGJIa3fVv8kA81K7NfU11aqUhMeM3ueMjIp59wt5QQtIiIiISwULgh4kCv4fTgL4GPgGmCs7+dHJdqHmtk7FE1Wzihr/g6UXeFZ9JfDFREREfkTzKwa0AcYVKJ5LDDdzG4ANgOX+dpnAucA64Fs4DrKUday9Nf+YswiIiJSCYTCBQF/45zbB9Q9qC0d6H2Ivg4Y8meOX+4cHjOrT9Ga92OAqiXe7Iw/80YiIiIiwVKRVVpvAauBFsCDwCZgoR9jEhERkQDwBnALtookPHWdcy8D+c65b51z1wOq7oiIiEilUZFl6fm+n9vM7FwgBajjv5BEREQkEFzpt7cMOxVJeB4xs5oU3VPreaAGMMKvUYmIiIgcRuUmPM65T30PM4DT/RuOiIiIBIo3gu5aWZFVWlM5xAUIfXN5REREREJeRYa0Pi3xuCpwEUXzeERERKQS82oOz++cc++XfG5m04Dv/RaRiIiIyGH2V+6W3gZocLgDEREREfGXiszh2cuBc3i2U3TlZREREanEtCy9BOdcQiACEREREfGXcoe0zOzrirSJiIhI5RJJt5YotcJjZlWBeKCemdWG4rpXDaBJAGITEREROSzKGtIaBAwHGgOL+T3hyQQm+DkuERER8TPN4QGcc88Cz5rZMOfc8wGMSUREROSwqsiydK+Z1frtiZnVNrPBfoxJREREAiCS5vBUJOEZ4Jzb89sT59xuYID/QhIRERE5vCpyawmPmZlzzgGYmQeI9W9YIiIi4m+hUHkJlIokPF8A/zazl3zPB/naRERERCqFiiQ8dwEDgZt9z2cBU/wWkYiIiAREJK3SKncOj3PO65x70Tl3iXPuEmAVoFVbIiIiUmlUpMKDmXUBrgAuAzYCH/gzKBEREfE/b+QUeMq80vJRFCU5VwA7gX8D5pw7PUCxiYiIiBwWZVV41gDfAec559YDmNmIgEQlIiIifufVHB4A/gZsA74xsylm1hsi6DcjIiIiYaPUhMc596Fz7nKgHfANRffVamBmk8zsrEAFKCIiIvK/qsgqrX3Oubedc+cDTYGlFC1VFxERkUrMBXALtorcWqKYc263c26yc663vwISEREROdwqtCxdREREwk8k3VriT1V4RERERCojVXhEREQilNciZ/G1KjwiIiIS9lThERERiVChsHoqUFThERERkbCnCo+IiEiE0iotERERkTCiCo+IiEiE8kbOIi1VeERERCT8qcIjIiISobxETolHFR4REREJe6rwiIiIRChdh0dEREQkjCjhERERkbAXskNaa3J3BDuEsDc7tmWwQwh7N/0jM9ghRISv364d7BDCXrc6rYMdgviBlqWLiIiIhJGQrfCIiIiIf+nWEiIiIiJhRBUeERGRCKVl6SIiIiJhRBUeERGRCKVVWiIiIiJhRAmPiIhIhPIGcCuPmdUys/fMbI2ZrTazE8yss5nNN7NlZrbIzLr7+pqZPWdm681shZkdV97xNaQlIiIioeBZ4Avn3CVmFgvEA9OBB51zn5vZOcATwGnA2UAb39YDmOT7WSolPCIiIhEqVK7DY2Y1gVOAawGcc3lAnpk5oIavW00gxff4AuB155wD5vuqQ42cc9tKew8lPCIiIhJsLYA0YKqZHQssBm4FhgNfmtk4iqbhnOjr3wTYWmL/JF9bqQmP5vCIiIhEKGeB28xsoG8ezm/bwBKhRAPHAZOcc12AfcDdwM3ACOdcM2AE8PJfPVdVeERERMTvnHOTgcmlvJwEJDnnFviev0dRwnMyRZUegHeBf/keJwPNSuzf1NdWKlV4REREIlSorNJyzm0HtppZW19Tb2AVRXN2TvW1nQGs8z3+GLjat1qrJ5BR1vwdUIVHREREQsMw4C3fCq1fgeuAj4BnzSwa2A/8Ngw2EzgHWA9k+/qWSQmPiIiIBJ1zbhnQ7aDm74Guh+jrgCF/5vhKeERERCJUqCxLDwTN4REREZGwpwqPiIhIhHLBDiCAVOERERGRsKcKj4iISITyWrAjCBxVeERERCTsqcIjIiISobRKS0RERCSMqMIjIiISoVThEREREQkjqvCIiIhEKF2HR0RERCSMqMIjIiISoXQdHhEREZEwogqPiIhIhNIqLREREZEwooRHREREwp6GtERERCKUlqWLiIiIhBFVeERERCKUN4JqPKrwiIiISNhThUdERCRCaVm6iIiISBhRhUdERCRCRc4MHlV4REREJAKowiMiIhKhNIdHREREJIyowiMiIhKhvBbsCAJHFR4REREJe6rwiIiIRChdaVlEREQkjKjCIyIiEqEip76jCo+IiIhEAFV4/oSEGtUZM34Urdu2xDnHmBGP0av3CZzWrxder5fdO/dw362PkJa6k24nduGZVx8neUsKAHNmfstL46cG+QxCX5Ua8fR94kbqHtUUnOOLO6fQ9YZ+1GnZqPj13MxsXj97NDWa1uO6OU+we8M2AFKWrmf2Pfodl8fqN6Hq1XcWP4+q25C8L97G4hPwdOgBzovLyiB32rO4zF3EnH4R0ced6uvsIeqIpuy7/yrIzgrSGVQO0TXi6TJ+AAltm4FzLB0xmcKcXI594gaiq1Uhe+tOFg9+gYKsHADaDOtP4pWnQaGXFfe+TtrcFcE9gUqgeo1q3DXuDlq0bY5zjrG3j+PnxasA+PugSxl6/02c1+EiMnZnktiqGaOeHslRHVoz5fFXeOeld4McvQSaEp4/YeQjw/lhznzuuHE00THRxMVVZcPaX3nhiSkAXHnDpQy67ToeuetJAJYuWM6wq+4s65BykDMeuIqNc1fw8U3PERXjISauCp8OmVD8+mn3Xknu3uzi5xmbU3n97NHBCLXScmnJ5Dw1vOiJRRE/ZioFK+fhsrPgi7cAiOl1HrFn/Z3c9yaR/80M8r+ZAYDnmOOJOfUCJTsV0PGRq0mds5yFNz6LxXjwxFXhxOmj+PnBt0ift4bEK06l9eDzWPPEuyQc1YQmF57AN6eOpGrD2pw4/R5mn3gbeCNpwOHPu+WhoSz4ZiH3DXyQ6JhoqsZVAaBB4/p0P6Ur25NSi/tm7tnLs/dNoFe/k4IVbkjShQflD6onVKNrz87MePsTAAryC9ibmcW+rN+/fKvGV8VF1Ijo4RWbEEfT7m1Z+c5cALz5heRmZh/Q56jzerD6o3lBiC48edp0wqVvx+1Og9yc31+IrXrIwf3o406hYOl/AhdgJRWdEEfdnu3Y8vZcAFx+IQWZ2VRv2Yj0eWsA2PHtShqfdzwADft2JfnDeXjzCsjeksa+janU7tI6SNFXDtUSqnFsj458Om0mUPQ3OStzHwDDHhjMxEcn49zvH+I96XtYs3wtBfkFQYlXgs9vFR4z6w4459xCMzsG6Aescc7N9Nd7+lOTxMbsTt/DQ8+Opu0xbVi1Yg1P3PcMOdn7GXr3IM6/tB9Ze/dx48VDi/fp1LUD079+jbTUnYx/cAIb1m4M4hmEvprN6pO9ay/9nhpI/aMTSV25iW8eeIP8nFwAmnZvS/bODPZsSj1gn6tmPkJeVg7fj3uP5J/WBiv8Sim6y4EJTOzZ/0d0t9Nx+7PJmXhQ5Swmluh2x5H7wUsBjrLyiU9sQF76Xro8O4gaxxxJxoqNrLzvdfauTaJhv25s/2IRTc7vSVzjugBUbVSH3YvXFe+fsy2dqo1qByv8SqFRYkP2pGdwz9MjaXVMS35ZsY5n73+Bbr2OI23bTjas+jXYIVYKWpb+PzKzMcBzwCQz+ycwAagG3G1mlXL8wRPtoV3Ho3j31Rn8vc+15GTv5/qhVwEwYexL9O16EZ+9/yWXX38xAKtXrKVft79xWe9rmPbyezw9dWwww68UoqI9HNGhOcve+Jo3zrmX/Jxcug8+v/j1dhecwJoS1Z19O/bwUs/hvHHOvcx9+C3OfW4wsdXjghF65eSJJrp9dwqW/VDclPf5m2Q/fAMFS74l9uRzD+ge3b47hRtXazirAqKio6jZsTmbXp3Nt33uoSA7lzZD+7N0xGRaXHsmp375KNHVq+LNU7Xhr/J4PBzVsQ0fvv4xN/S9qehv8u1Xc9WwK3l53KvBDk9CkL+GtC4BTgJOAYYAFzrnHgb6An8vbSczG2hmi8xsUXp2amndgiI1ZQep29JYubRoQtysT7+hXae2B/SZ+cFXnHnu6QDsy8omJ7toiOD7r+cRHRNNrTo1Axt0JbN32y72btvF9mUbAPhl5k8c0aE5AOaJok2/41nzyYLi/oV5BezfU/Tlm7pyExmbd1C7ZcOAx11Zedp1pTB5Ay5rzx9eK1g8F0+nEw9oi+7SS8NZFZSTsov923axe2nRZznl0wXU7NScrPUpzLt8LN/2HU3SjB/Zt3kHAPu37Squ9gDENarL/m27gxJ7ZZG2LY20bWmsWlo0RDj3s/9wVMc2NEpsyNRZk5k+/y3qN6rPy1++SJ36qpaVxgVwCzZ/JTwFzrlC51w2sME5lwngnMuhjDlSzrnJzrluzrludeOP8FNof0162i5Sk1M5slUiAD16dePXXzaS2KJpcZ/T+/Vi4/rNANStX6e4vUOXo4kyY8+ujMAGXclkp2Wwd9suavtWZB15UnvS1yUXPT65A7s2pJC1fVdx/7g6CVhU0Y1gaibWp1aLI8jwfYFI+aKP60XBkt8TGKvX6PfXOvTA7Uj6vXPVeDytOlDw3wVI+XLTMshJTqd6q6Lfaf1eHdj7SzKx9WoUdTCj7YiL2PT6bAC2f7WYJheeQFRsNPGJ9anWsiG7l64PVviVwq603exISaNZq6K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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 720x720 with 2 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {
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}
},
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
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264.60824590947846, 270.0746112562252, 268.9222929148653, 278.02083049181823, 283.21286950125295, 276.55972717521934, 277.37096904159995, 276.6590502210598, 286.57958266356997, 289.04655523766553, 277.47987558557156, 280.8235080863777, 282.68162363154926, 275.7488568119855, 278.32710862317754, 278.90463737357067, 284.59196777068, 285.035456920456, 278.5033943660289, 275.70675611427004, 280.97964782495546, 277.2941314443181, 278.62976484410825, 269.9434819250932, 271.8083414793923, 265.9078353997772, 270.4814501686534, 265.82466120158307, 264.130028986423, 265.7698362497137, 258.062510998472, 260.08830170980997, 255.64946136062923, 256.8637963020922, 253.19706560987987, 254.40608159816702, 256.5473327849516, 259.21756294035504, 263.5356955096698, 262.83732591656917, 262.47811490448316, 258.5693783100306, 255.81561443102876, 252.91850259759735, 257.6291097084776, 256.1284201444257, 263.3853920485178, 262.45915341981384, 263.73864179273545, 267.7035127076862, 267.6700497685977, 275.75145468786127, 272.2631987860598, 272.9120927431666, 272.41175390647084, 277.8032365358697, 277.4305171935174, 274.138341722821, 274.86023935602446, 274.53956907677576, 275.09322387441387, 286.92452494454596, 293.05992770294347, 301.52203311536596, 298.35856445126393, 296.8394220939329, 302.5263706888825, 301.82047582394176, 298.38726791144444, 299.22772538272835, 299.58181152443126, 302.52270630756277, 304.29750618456717, 304.49529956358714, 305.9670268448111, 302.2240302164096, 297.89215244997445, 288.61529433576146, 294.79406676199955, 286.76092844273506, 286.53151969998083, 286.13037557240085, 271.7260955821269, 274.63356480485567, 287.6946794243666, 282.7079716476776, 282.6302269554745, 279.37055833792135, 277.78513041935366, 284.82235372331064, 281.46382346899, 277.80713929575535, 284.8101942655025, 288.4438976606732, 321.86973800125094, 319.1338452282403, 325.22132332596897, 316.9119185149905, 320.01765531643736, 324.9405935807219, 324.9324700658824, 328.1493015195347, 335.13888164190075, 335.38744297911853, 328.7719256663554, 326.1773672196384, 331.63811997584054, 330.97208008488906, 342.07067717040235, 337.99718552309815, 334.57496401967677, 327.6659910126704, 331.6798994025757, 333.2111549381509, 338.12601947348867, 344.2714598774193, 344.03620771316974, 342.9037551961139, 340.68059584992574, 352.2864481485466, 356.6518643851873, 355.3738618711404, 363.3756966609389, 383.7489607203956, 362.2558210120474, 360.41435392190283, 367.42140965273444, 372.58674230343576, 373.5616776124631, 378.84757535067945, 375.7915382428506, 374.47000466669664, 368.75309592878506, 364.3680070296986, 360.569470556414, 362.38133214596, 373.6664907978721, 368.26701000584285, 360.15592911046417, 360.35101357206565, 365.28782245800295, 368.6636907505523, 375.9232932609153, 370.73241911980415, 357.868004176347, 351.0267608298425, 355.8036500001353, 355.65243344888523, 355.2226867584678, 352.7953317322849, 350.32576441015897, 353.50789010355123, 353.74945382845533, 346.9309331059119, 347.14198275688466, 346.70805527843856, 344.89650568960866, 345.70126420288443, 347.1359244493264, 348.8195336829056, 357.2580595685846, 359.44031088244935, 358.8711970568855, 358.6379307787985, 358.4197593709081, 354.6503782348573, 352.94805641933, 350.46859632298424, 360.03054785932966, 377.06599328220693, 372.83656972422483, 362.50899674286387, 368.3604961319549, 362.9855025592295, 357.12631157208585, 370.11380510292406, 365.4935511025559, 367.4489416009546, 382.4592308653536, 385.6017708789639, 378.8762333252167, 371.6081242492613, 376.86947594175706, 375.6352284080478, 372.52058630583105, 362.1924530505019], \"mode\": \"line\", \"name\": \"All preds\"}], {\"title\": \"OLS all predictors\", \"autosize\": false, \"width\": 900, \"height\": 600, \"yaxis\": {\"type\": \"log\", \"autorange\": true}}, {\"showLink\": true, \"linkText\": \"Export to plot.ly\"})});</script>"
],
"text/plain": [
"<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"
]
},
"metadata": {}
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "Ki8T0jBZfkZl",
"outputId": "0fa085f8-b724-4c6e-b2d3-815d1a8715a3",
"colab": {
"resources": {
"http://localhost:8080/static/components/requirejs/require.js": {
"data": "/** vim: et:ts=4:sw=4:sts=4
 * @license RequireJS 2.1.22 Copyright (c) 2010-2015, The Dojo Foundation All Rights Reserved.
 * Available via the MIT or new BSD license.
 * see: http://github.com/jrburke/requirejs for details
 */
//Not using strict: uneven strict support in browsers, #392, and causes
//problems with requirejs.exec()/transpiler plugins that may not be strict.
/*jslint regexp: true, nomen: true, sloppy: true */
/*global window, navigator, document, importScripts, setTimeout, opera */

var requirejs, require, define;
(function (global) {
    var req, s, head, baseElement, dataMain, src,
        interactiveScript, currentlyAddingScript, mainScript, subPath,
        version = '2.1.22',
        commentRegExp = /(\/\*([\s\S]*?)\*\/|([^:]|^)\/\/(.*)$)/mg,
        cjsRequireRegExp = /[^.]\s*require\s*\(\s*["']([^'"\s]+)["']\s*\)/g,
        jsSuffixRegExp = /\.js$/,
        currDirRegExp = /^\.\//,
        op = Object.prototype,
        ostring = op.toString,
        hasOwn = op.hasOwnProperty,
        ap = Array.prototype,
        isBrowser = !!(typeof window !== 'undefined' && typeof navigator !== 'undefined' && window.document),
        isWebWorker = !isBrowser && typeof importScripts !== 'undefined',
        //PS3 indicates loaded and complete, but need to wait for complete
        //specifically. Sequence is 'loading', 'loaded', execution,
        // then 'complete'. The UA check is unfortunate, but not sure how
        //to feature test w/o causing perf issues.
        readyRegExp = isBrowser && navigator.platform === 'PLAYSTATION 3' ?
                      /^complete$/ : /^(complete|loaded)$/,
        defContextName = '_',
        //Oh the tragedy, detecting opera. See the usage of isOpera for reason.
        isOpera = typeof opera !== 'undefined' && opera.toString() === '[object Opera]',
        contexts = {},
        cfg = {},
        globalDefQueue = [],
        useInteractive = false;

    function isFunction(it) {
        return ostring.call(it) === '[object Function]';
    }

    function isArray(it) {
        return ostring.call(it) === '[object Array]';
    }

    /**
     * Helper function for iterating over an array. If the func returns
     * a true value, it will break out of the loop.
     */
    function each(ary, func) {
        if (ary) {
            var i;
            for (i = 0; i < ary.length; i += 1) {
                if (ary[i] && func(ary[i], i, ary)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    /**
     * Helper function for iterating over an array backwards. If the func
     * returns a true value, it will break out of the loop.
     */
    function eachReverse(ary, func) {
        if (ary) {
            var i;
            for (i = ary.length - 1; i > -1; i -= 1) {
                if (ary[i] && func(ary[i], i, ary)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    function hasProp(obj, prop) {
        return hasOwn.call(obj, prop);
    }

    function getOwn(obj, prop) {
        return hasProp(obj, prop) && obj[prop];
    }

    /**
     * Cycles over properties in an object and calls a function for each
     * property value. If the function returns a truthy value, then the
     * iteration is stopped.
     */
    function eachProp(obj, func) {
        var prop;
        for (prop in obj) {
            if (hasProp(obj, prop)) {
                if (func(obj[prop], prop)) {
                    break;
                }
            }
        }
    }

    /**
     * Simple function to mix in properties from source into target,
     * but only if target does not already have a property of the same name.
     */
    function mixin(target, source, force, deepStringMixin) {
        if (source) {
            eachProp(source, function (value, prop) {
                if (force || !hasProp(target, prop)) {
                    if (deepStringMixin && typeof value === 'object' && value &&
                        !isArray(value) && !isFunction(value) &&
                        !(value instanceof RegExp)) {

                        if (!target[prop]) {
                            target[prop] = {};
                        }
                        mixin(target[prop], value, force, deepStringMixin);
                    } else {
                        target[prop] = value;
                    }
                }
            });
        }
        return target;
    }

    //Similar to Function.prototype.bind, but the 'this' object is specified
    //first, since it is easier to read/figure out what 'this' will be.
    function bind(obj, fn) {
        return function () {
            return fn.apply(obj, arguments);
        };
    }

    function scripts() {
        return document.getElementsByTagName('script');
    }

    function defaultOnError(err) {
        throw err;
    }

    //Allow getting a global that is expressed in
    //dot notation, like 'a.b.c'.
    function getGlobal(value) {
        if (!value) {
            return value;
        }
        var g = global;
        each(value.split('.'), function (part) {
            g = g[part];
        });
        return g;
    }

    /**
     * Constructs an error with a pointer to an URL with more information.
     * @param {String} id the error ID that maps to an ID on a web page.
     * @param {String} message human readable error.
     * @param {Error} [err] the original error, if there is one.
     *
     * @returns {Error}
     */
    function makeError(id, msg, err, requireModules) {
        var e = new Error(msg + '\nhttp://requirejs.org/docs/errors.html#' + id);
        e.requireType = id;
        e.requireModules = requireModules;
        if (err) {
            e.originalError = err;
        }
        return e;
    }

    if (typeof define !== 'undefined') {
        //If a define is already in play via another AMD loader,
        //do not overwrite.
        return;
    }

    if (typeof requirejs !== 'undefined') {
        if (isFunction(requirejs)) {
            //Do not overwrite an existing requirejs instance.
            return;
        }
        cfg = requirejs;
        requirejs = undefined;
    }

    //Allow for a require config object
    if (typeof require !== 'undefined' && !isFunction(require)) {
        //assume it is a config object.
        cfg = require;
        require = undefined;
    }

    function newContext(contextName) {
        var inCheckLoaded, Module, context, handlers,
            checkLoadedTimeoutId,
            config = {
                //Defaults. Do not set a default for map
                //config to speed up normalize(), which
                //will run faster if there is no default.
                waitSeconds: 7,
                baseUrl: './',
                paths: {},
                bundles: {},
                pkgs: {},
                shim: {},
                config: {}
            },
            registry = {},
            //registry of just enabled modules, to speed
            //cycle breaking code when lots of modules
            //are registered, but not activated.
            enabledRegistry = {},
            undefEvents = {},
            defQueue = [],
            defined = {},
            urlFetched = {},
            bundlesMap = {},
            requireCounter = 1,
            unnormalizedCounter = 1;

        /**
         * Trims the . and .. from an array of path segments.
         * It will keep a leading path segment if a .. will become
         * the first path segment, to help with module name lookups,
         * which act like paths, but can be remapped. But the end result,
         * all paths that use this function should look normalized.
         * NOTE: this method MODIFIES the input array.
         * @param {Array} ary the array of path segments.
         */
        function trimDots(ary) {
            var i, part;
            for (i = 0; i < ary.length; i++) {
                part = ary[i];
                if (part === '.') {
                    ary.splice(i, 1);
                    i -= 1;
                } else if (part === '..') {
                    // If at the start, or previous value is still ..,
                    // keep them so that when converted to a path it may
                    // still work when converted to a path, even though
                    // as an ID it is less than ideal. In larger point
                    // releases, may be better to just kick out an error.
                    if (i === 0 || (i === 1 && ary[2] === '..') || ary[i - 1] === '..') {
                        continue;
                    } else if (i > 0) {
                        ary.splice(i - 1, 2);
                        i -= 2;
                    }
                }
            }
        }

        /**
         * Given a relative module name, like ./something, normalize it to
         * a real name that can be mapped to a path.
         * @param {String} name the relative name
         * @param {String} baseName a real name that the name arg is relative
         * to.
         * @param {Boolean} applyMap apply the map config to the value. Should
         * only be done if this normalization is for a dependency ID.
         * @returns {String} normalized name
         */
        function normalize(name, baseName, applyMap) {
            var pkgMain, mapValue, nameParts, i, j, nameSegment, lastIndex,
                foundMap, foundI, foundStarMap, starI, normalizedBaseParts,
                baseParts = (baseName && baseName.split('/')),
                map = config.map,
                starMap = map && map['*'];

            //Adjust any relative paths.
            if (name) {
                name = name.split('/');
                lastIndex = name.length - 1;

                // If wanting node ID compatibility, strip .js from end
                // of IDs. Have to do this here, and not in nameToUrl
                // because node allows either .js or non .js to map
                // to same file.
                if (config.nodeIdCompat && jsSuffixRegExp.test(name[lastIndex])) {
                    name[lastIndex] = name[lastIndex].replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');
                }

                // Starts with a '.' so need the baseName
                if (name[0].charAt(0) === '.' && baseParts) {
                    //Convert baseName to array, and lop off the last part,
                    //so that . matches that 'directory' and not name of the baseName's
                    //module. For instance, baseName of 'one/two/three', maps to
                    //'one/two/three.js', but we want the directory, 'one/two' for
                    //this normalization.
                    normalizedBaseParts = baseParts.slice(0, baseParts.length - 1);
                    name = normalizedBaseParts.concat(name);
                }

                trimDots(name);
                name = name.join('/');
            }

            //Apply map config if available.
            if (applyMap && map && (baseParts || starMap)) {
                nameParts = name.split('/');

                outerLoop: for (i = nameParts.length; i > 0; i -= 1) {
                    nameSegment = nameParts.slice(0, i).join('/');

                    if (baseParts) {
                        //Find the longest baseName segment match in the config.
                        //So, do joins on the biggest to smallest lengths of baseParts.
                        for (j = baseParts.length; j > 0; j -= 1) {
                            mapValue = getOwn(map, baseParts.slice(0, j).join('/'));

                            //baseName segment has config, find if it has one for
                            //this name.
                            if (mapValue) {
                                mapValue = getOwn(mapValue, nameSegment);
                                if (mapValue) {
                                    //Match, update name to the new value.
                                    foundMap = mapValue;
                                    foundI = i;
                                    break outerLoop;
                                }
                            }
                        }
                    }

                    //Check for a star map match, but just hold on to it,
                    //if there is a shorter segment match later in a matching
                    //config, then favor over this star map.
                    if (!foundStarMap && starMap && getOwn(starMap, nameSegment)) {
                        foundStarMap = getOwn(starMap, nameSegment);
                        starI = i;
                    }
                }

                if (!foundMap && foundStarMap) {
                    foundMap = foundStarMap;
                    foundI = starI;
                }

                if (foundMap) {
                    nameParts.splice(0, foundI, foundMap);
                    name = nameParts.join('/');
                }
            }

            // If the name points to a package's name, use
            // the package main instead.
            pkgMain = getOwn(config.pkgs, name);

            return pkgMain ? pkgMain : name;
        }

        function removeScript(name) {
            if (isBrowser) {
                each(scripts(), function (scriptNode) {
                    if (scriptNode.getAttribute('data-requiremodule') === name &&
                            scriptNode.getAttribute('data-requirecontext') === context.contextName) {
                        scriptNode.parentNode.removeChild(scriptNode);
                        return true;
                    }
                });
            }
        }

        function hasPathFallback(id) {
            var pathConfig = getOwn(config.paths, id);
            if (pathConfig && isArray(pathConfig) && pathConfig.length > 1) {
                //Pop off the first array value, since it failed, and
                //retry
                pathConfig.shift();
                context.require.undef(id);

                //Custom require that does not do map translation, since
                //ID is "absolute", already mapped/resolved.
                context.makeRequire(null, {
                    skipMap: true
                })([id]);

                return true;
            }
        }

        //Turns a plugin!resource to [plugin, resource]
        //with the plugin being undefined if the name
        //did not have a plugin prefix.
        function splitPrefix(name) {
            var prefix,
                index = name ? name.indexOf('!') : -1;
            if (index > -1) {
                prefix = name.substring(0, index);
                name = name.substring(index + 1, name.length);
            }
            return [prefix, name];
        }

        /**
         * Creates a module mapping that includes plugin prefix, module
         * name, and path. If parentModuleMap is provided it will
         * also normalize the name via require.normalize()
         *
         * @param {String} name the module name
         * @param {String} [parentModuleMap] parent module map
         * for the module name, used to resolve relative names.
         * @param {Boolean} isNormalized: is the ID already normalized.
         * This is true if this call is done for a define() module ID.
         * @param {Boolean} applyMap: apply the map config to the ID.
         * Should only be true if this map is for a dependency.
         *
         * @returns {Object}
         */
        function makeModuleMap(name, parentModuleMap, isNormalized, applyMap) {
            var url, pluginModule, suffix, nameParts,
                prefix = null,
                parentName = parentModuleMap ? parentModuleMap.name : null,
                originalName = name,
                isDefine = true,
                normalizedName = '';

            //If no name, then it means it is a require call, generate an
            //internal name.
            if (!name) {
                isDefine = false;
                name = '_@r' + (requireCounter += 1);
            }

            nameParts = splitPrefix(name);
            prefix = nameParts[0];
            name = nameParts[1];

            if (prefix) {
                prefix = normalize(prefix, parentName, applyMap);
                pluginModule = getOwn(defined, prefix);
            }

            //Account for relative paths if there is a base name.
            if (name) {
                if (prefix) {
                    if (pluginModule && pluginModule.normalize) {
                        //Plugin is loaded, use its normalize method.
                        normalizedName = pluginModule.normalize(name, function (name) {
                            return normalize(name, parentName, applyMap);
                        });
                    } else {
                        // If nested plugin references, then do not try to
                        // normalize, as it will not normalize correctly. This
                        // places a restriction on resourceIds, and the longer
                        // term solution is not to normalize until plugins are
                        // loaded and all normalizations to allow for async
                        // loading of a loader plugin. But for now, fixes the
                        // common uses. Details in #1131
                        normalizedName = name.indexOf('!') === -1 ?
                                         normalize(name, parentName, applyMap) :
                                         name;
                    }
                } else {
                    //A regular module.
                    normalizedName = normalize(name, parentName, applyMap);

                    //Normalized name may be a plugin ID due to map config
                    //application in normalize. The map config values must
                    //already be normalized, so do not need to redo that part.
                    nameParts = splitPrefix(normalizedName);
                    prefix = nameParts[0];
                    normalizedName = nameParts[1];
                    isNormalized = true;

                    url = context.nameToUrl(normalizedName);
                }
            }

            //If the id is a plugin id that cannot be determined if it needs
            //normalization, stamp it with a unique ID so two matching relative
            //ids that may conflict can be separate.
            suffix = prefix && !pluginModule && !isNormalized ?
                     '_unnormalized' + (unnormalizedCounter += 1) :
                     '';

            return {
                prefix: prefix,
                name: normalizedName,
                parentMap: parentModuleMap,
                unnormalized: !!suffix,
                url: url,
                originalName: originalName,
                isDefine: isDefine,
                id: (prefix ?
                        prefix + '!' + normalizedName :
                        normalizedName) + suffix
            };
        }

        function getModule(depMap) {
            var id = depMap.id,
                mod = getOwn(registry, id);

            if (!mod) {
                mod = registry[id] = new context.Module(depMap);
            }

            return mod;
        }

        function on(depMap, name, fn) {
            var id = depMap.id,
                mod = getOwn(registry, id);

            if (hasProp(defined, id) &&
                    (!mod || mod.defineEmitComplete)) {
                if (name === 'defined') {
                    fn(defined[id]);
                }
            } else {
                mod = getModule(depMap);
                if (mod.error && name === 'error') {
                    fn(mod.error);
                } else {
                    mod.on(name, fn);
                }
            }
        }

        function onError(err, errback) {
            var ids = err.requireModules,
                notified = false;

            if (errback) {
                errback(err);
            } else {
                each(ids, function (id) {
                    var mod = getOwn(registry, id);
                    if (mod) {
                        //Set error on module, so it skips timeout checks.
                        mod.error = err;
                        if (mod.events.error) {
                            notified = true;
                            mod.emit('error', err);
                        }
                    }
                });

                if (!notified) {
                    req.onError(err);
                }
            }
        }

        /**
         * Internal method to transfer globalQueue items to this context's
         * defQueue.
         */
        function takeGlobalQueue() {
            //Push all the globalDefQueue items into the context's defQueue
            if (globalDefQueue.length) {
                each(globalDefQueue, function(queueItem) {
                    var id = queueItem[0];
                    if (typeof id === 'string') {
                        context.defQueueMap[id] = true;
                    }
                    defQueue.push(queueItem);
                });
                globalDefQueue = [];
            }
        }

        handlers = {
            'require': function (mod) {
                if (mod.require) {
                    return mod.require;
                } else {
                    return (mod.require = context.makeRequire(mod.map));
                }
            },
            'exports': function (mod) {
                mod.usingExports = true;
                if (mod.map.isDefine) {
                    if (mod.exports) {
                        return (defined[mod.map.id] = mod.exports);
                    } else {
                        return (mod.exports = defined[mod.map.id] = {});
                    }
                }
            },
            'module': function (mod) {
                if (mod.module) {
                    return mod.module;
                } else {
                    return (mod.module = {
                        id: mod.map.id,
                        uri: mod.map.url,
                        config: function () {
                            return getOwn(config.config, mod.map.id) || {};
                        },
                        exports: mod.exports || (mod.exports = {})
                    });
                }
            }
        };

        function cleanRegistry(id) {
            //Clean up machinery used for waiting modules.
            delete registry[id];
            delete enabledRegistry[id];
        }

        function breakCycle(mod, traced, processed) {
            var id = mod.map.id;

            if (mod.error) {
                mod.emit('error', mod.error);
            } else {
                traced[id] = true;
                each(mod.depMaps, function (depMap, i) {
                    var depId = depMap.id,
                        dep = getOwn(registry, depId);

                    //Only force things that have not completed
                    //being defined, so still in the registry,
                    //and only if it has not been matched up
                    //in the module already.
                    if (dep && !mod.depMatched[i] && !processed[depId]) {
                        if (getOwn(traced, depId)) {
                            mod.defineDep(i, defined[depId]);
                            mod.check(); //pass false?
                        } else {
                            breakCycle(dep, traced, processed);
                        }
                    }
                });
                processed[id] = true;
            }
        }

        function checkLoaded() {
            var err, usingPathFallback,
                waitInterval = config.waitSeconds * 1000,
                //It is possible to disable the wait interval by using waitSeconds of 0.
                expired = waitInterval && (context.startTime + waitInterval) < new Date().getTime(),
                noLoads = [],
                reqCalls = [],
                stillLoading = false,
                needCycleCheck = true;

            //Do not bother if this call was a result of a cycle break.
            if (inCheckLoaded) {
                return;
            }

            inCheckLoaded = true;

            //Figure out the state of all the modules.
            eachProp(enabledRegistry, function (mod) {
                var map = mod.map,
                    modId = map.id;

                //Skip things that are not enabled or in error state.
                if (!mod.enabled) {
                    return;
                }

                if (!map.isDefine) {
                    reqCalls.push(mod);
                }

                if (!mod.error) {
                    //If the module should be executed, and it has not
                    //been inited and time is up, remember it.
                    if (!mod.inited && expired) {
                        if (hasPathFallback(modId)) {
                            usingPathFallback = true;
                            stillLoading = true;
                        } else {
                            noLoads.push(modId);
                            removeScript(modId);
                        }
                    } else if (!mod.inited && mod.fetched && map.isDefine) {
                        stillLoading = true;
                        if (!map.prefix) {
                            //No reason to keep looking for unfinished
                            //loading. If the only stillLoading is a
                            //plugin resource though, keep going,
                            //because it may be that a plugin resource
                            //is waiting on a non-plugin cycle.
                            return (needCycleCheck = false);
                        }
                    }
                }
            });

            if (expired && noLoads.length) {
                //If wait time expired, throw error of unloaded modules.
                err = makeError('timeout', 'Load timeout for modules: ' + noLoads, null, noLoads);
                err.contextName = context.contextName;
                return onError(err);
            }

            //Not expired, check for a cycle.
            if (needCycleCheck) {
                each(reqCalls, function (mod) {
                    breakCycle(mod, {}, {});
                });
            }

            //If still waiting on loads, and the waiting load is something
            //other than a plugin resource, or there are still outstanding
            //scripts, then just try back later.
            if ((!expired || usingPathFallback) && stillLoading) {
                //Something is still waiting to load. Wait for it, but only
                //if a timeout is not already in effect.
                if ((isBrowser || isWebWorker) && !checkLoadedTimeoutId) {
                    checkLoadedTimeoutId = setTimeout(function () {
                        checkLoadedTimeoutId = 0;
                        checkLoaded();
                    }, 50);
                }
            }

            inCheckLoaded = false;
        }

        Module = function (map) {
            this.events = getOwn(undefEvents, map.id) || {};
            this.map = map;
            this.shim = getOwn(config.shim, map.id);
            this.depExports = [];
            this.depMaps = [];
            this.depMatched = [];
            this.pluginMaps = {};
            this.depCount = 0;

            /* this.exports this.factory
               this.depMaps = [],
               this.enabled, this.fetched
            */
        };

        Module.prototype = {
            init: function (depMaps, factory, errback, options) {
                options = options || {};

                //Do not do more inits if already done. Can happen if there
                //are multiple define calls for the same module. That is not
                //a normal, common case, but it is also not unexpected.
                if (this.inited) {
                    return;
                }

                this.factory = factory;

                if (errback) {
                    //Register for errors on this module.
                    this.on('error', errback);
                } else if (this.events.error) {
                    //If no errback already, but there are error listeners
                    //on this module, set up an errback to pass to the deps.
                    errback = bind(this, function (err) {
                        this.emit('error', err);
                    });
                }

                //Do a copy of the dependency array, so that
                //source inputs are not modified. For example
                //"shim" deps are passed in here directly, and
                //doing a direct modification of the depMaps array
                //would affect that config.
                this.depMaps = depMaps && depMaps.slice(0);

                this.errback = errback;

                //Indicate this module has be initialized
                this.inited = true;

                this.ignore = options.ignore;

                //Could have option to init this module in enabled mode,
                //or could have been previously marked as enabled. However,
                //the dependencies are not known until init is called. So
                //if enabled previously, now trigger dependencies as enabled.
                if (options.enabled || this.enabled) {
                    //Enable this module and dependencies.
                    //Will call this.check()
                    this.enable();
                } else {
                    this.check();
                }
            },

            defineDep: function (i, depExports) {
                //Because of cycles, defined callback for a given
                //export can be called more than once.
                if (!this.depMatched[i]) {
                    this.depMatched[i] = true;
                    this.depCount -= 1;
                    this.depExports[i] = depExports;
                }
            },

            fetch: function () {
                if (this.fetched) {
                    return;
                }
                this.fetched = true;

                context.startTime = (new Date()).getTime();

                var map = this.map;

                //If the manager is for a plugin managed resource,
                //ask the plugin to load it now.
                if (this.shim) {
                    context.makeRequire(this.map, {
                        enableBuildCallback: true
                    })(this.shim.deps || [], bind(this, function () {
                        return map.prefix ? this.callPlugin() : this.load();
                    }));
                } else {
                    //Regular dependency.
                    return map.prefix ? this.callPlugin() : this.load();
                }
            },

            load: function () {
                var url = this.map.url;

                //Regular dependency.
                if (!urlFetched[url]) {
                    urlFetched[url] = true;
                    context.load(this.map.id, url);
                }
            },

            /**
             * Checks if the module is ready to define itself, and if so,
             * define it.
             */
            check: function () {
                if (!this.enabled || this.enabling) {
                    return;
                }

                var err, cjsModule,
                    id = this.map.id,
                    depExports = this.depExports,
                    exports = this.exports,
                    factory = this.factory;

                if (!this.inited) {
                    // Only fetch if not already in the defQueue.
                    if (!hasProp(context.defQueueMap, id)) {
                        this.fetch();
                    }
                } else if (this.error) {
                    this.emit('error', this.error);
                } else if (!this.defining) {
                    //The factory could trigger another require call
                    //that would result in checking this module to
                    //define itself again. If already in the process
                    //of doing that, skip this work.
                    this.defining = true;

                    if (this.depCount < 1 && !this.defined) {
                        if (isFunction(factory)) {
                            try {
                                exports = context.execCb(id, factory, depExports, exports);
                            } catch (e) {
                                err = e;
                            }

                            // Favor return value over exports. If node/cjs in play,
                            // then will not have a return value anyway. Favor
                            // module.exports assignment over exports object.
                            if (this.map.isDefine && exports === undefined) {
                                cjsModule = this.module;
                                if (cjsModule) {
                                    exports = cjsModule.exports;
                                } else if (this.usingExports) {
                                    //exports already set the defined value.
                                    exports = this.exports;
                                }
                            }

                            if (err) {
                                // If there is an error listener, favor passing
                                // to that instead of throwing an error. However,
                                // only do it for define()'d  modules. require
                                // errbacks should not be called for failures in
                                // their callbacks (#699). However if a global
                                // onError is set, use that.
                                if ((this.events.error && this.map.isDefine) ||
                                    req.onError !== defaultOnError) {
                                    err.requireMap = this.map;
                                    err.requireModules = this.map.isDefine ? [this.map.id] : null;
                                    err.requireType = this.map.isDefine ? 'define' : 'require';
                                    return onError((this.error = err));
                                } else if (typeof console !== 'undefined' &&
                                           console.error) {
                                    // Log the error for debugging. If promises could be
                                    // used, this would be different, but making do.
                                    console.error(err);
                                } else {
                                    // Do not want to completely lose the error. While this
                                    // will mess up processing and lead to similar results
                                    // as bug 1440, it at least surfaces the error.
                                    req.onError(err);
                                }
                            }
                        } else {
                            //Just a literal value
                            exports = factory;
                        }

                        this.exports = exports;

                        if (this.map.isDefine && !this.ignore) {
                            defined[id] = exports;

                            if (req.onResourceLoad) {
                                var resLoadMaps = [];
                                each(this.depMaps, function (depMap) {
                                    resLoadMaps.push(depMap.normalizedMap || depMap);
                                });
                                req.onResourceLoad(context, this.map, resLoadMaps);
                            }
                        }

                        //Clean up
                        cleanRegistry(id);

                        this.defined = true;
                    }

                    //Finished the define stage. Allow calling check again
                    //to allow define notifications below in the case of a
                    //cycle.
                    this.defining = false;

                    if (this.defined && !this.defineEmitted) {
                        this.defineEmitted = true;
                        this.emit('defined', this.exports);
                        this.defineEmitComplete = true;
                    }

                }
            },

            callPlugin: function () {
                var map = this.map,
                    id = map.id,
                    //Map already normalized the prefix.
                    pluginMap = makeModuleMap(map.prefix);

                //Mark this as a dependency for this plugin, so it
                //can be traced for cycles.
                this.depMaps.push(pluginMap);

                on(pluginMap, 'defined', bind(this, function (plugin) {
                    var load, normalizedMap, normalizedMod,
                        bundleId = getOwn(bundlesMap, this.map.id),
                        name = this.map.name,
                        parentName = this.map.parentMap ? this.map.parentMap.name : null,
                        localRequire = context.makeRequire(map.parentMap, {
                            enableBuildCallback: true
                        });

                    //If current map is not normalized, wait for that
                    //normalized name to load instead of continuing.
                    if (this.map.unnormalized) {
                        //Normalize the ID if the plugin allows it.
                        if (plugin.normalize) {
                            name = plugin.normalize(name, function (name) {
                                return normalize(name, parentName, true);
                            }) || '';
                        }

                        //prefix and name should already be normalized, no need
                        //for applying map config again either.
                        normalizedMap = makeModuleMap(map.prefix + '!' + name,
                                                      this.map.parentMap);
                        on(normalizedMap,
                            'defined', bind(this, function (value) {
                                this.map.normalizedMap = normalizedMap;
                                this.init([], function () { return value; }, null, {
                                    enabled: true,
                                    ignore: true
                                });
                            }));

                        normalizedMod = getOwn(registry, normalizedMap.id);
                        if (normalizedMod) {
                            //Mark this as a dependency for this plugin, so it
                            //can be traced for cycles.
                            this.depMaps.push(normalizedMap);

                            if (this.events.error) {
                                normalizedMod.on('error', bind(this, function (err) {
                                    this.emit('error', err);
                                }));
                            }
                            normalizedMod.enable();
                        }

                        return;
                    }

                    //If a paths config, then just load that file instead to
                    //resolve the plugin, as it is built into that paths layer.
                    if (bundleId) {
                        this.map.url = context.nameToUrl(bundleId);
                        this.load();
                        return;
                    }

                    load = bind(this, function (value) {
                        this.init([], function () { return value; }, null, {
                            enabled: true
                        });
                    });

                    load.error = bind(this, function (err) {
                        this.inited = true;
                        this.error = err;
                        err.requireModules = [id];

                        //Remove temp unnormalized modules for this module,
                        //since they will never be resolved otherwise now.
                        eachProp(registry, function (mod) {
                            if (mod.map.id.indexOf(id + '_unnormalized') === 0) {
                                cleanRegistry(mod.map.id);
                            }
                        });

                        onError(err);
                    });

                    //Allow plugins to load other code without having to know the
                    //context or how to 'complete' the load.
                    load.fromText = bind(this, function (text, textAlt) {
                        /*jslint evil: true */
                        var moduleName = map.name,
                            moduleMap = makeModuleMap(moduleName),
                            hasInteractive = useInteractive;

                        //As of 2.1.0, support just passing the text, to reinforce
                        //fromText only being called once per resource. Still
                        //support old style of passing moduleName but discard
                        //that moduleName in favor of the internal ref.
                        if (textAlt) {
                            text = textAlt;
                        }

                        //Turn off interactive script matching for IE for any define
                        //calls in the text, then turn it back on at the end.
                        if (hasInteractive) {
                            useInteractive = false;
                        }

                        //Prime the system by creating a module instance for
                        //it.
                        getModule(moduleMap);

                        //Transfer any config to this other module.
                        if (hasProp(config.config, id)) {
                            config.config[moduleName] = config.config[id];
                        }

                        try {
                            req.exec(text);
                        } catch (e) {
                            return onError(makeError('fromtexteval',
                                             'fromText eval for ' + id +
                                            ' failed: ' + e,
                                             e,
                                             [id]));
                        }

                        if (hasInteractive) {
                            useInteractive = true;
                        }

                        //Mark this as a dependency for the plugin
                        //resource
                        this.depMaps.push(moduleMap);

                        //Support anonymous modules.
                        context.completeLoad(moduleName);

                        //Bind the value of that module to the value for this
                        //resource ID.
                        localRequire([moduleName], load);
                    });

                    //Use parentName here since the plugin's name is not reliable,
                    //could be some weird string with no path that actually wants to
                    //reference the parentName's path.
                    plugin.load(map.name, localRequire, load, config);
                }));

                context.enable(pluginMap, this);
                this.pluginMaps[pluginMap.id] = pluginMap;
            },

            enable: function () {
                enabledRegistry[this.map.id] = this;
                this.enabled = true;

                //Set flag mentioning that the module is enabling,
                //so that immediate calls to the defined callbacks
                //for dependencies do not trigger inadvertent load
                //with the depCount still being zero.
                this.enabling = true;

                //Enable each dependency
                each(this.depMaps, bind(this, function (depMap, i) {
                    var id, mod, handler;

                    if (typeof depMap === 'string') {
                        //Dependency needs to be converted to a depMap
                        //and wired up to this module.
                        depMap = makeModuleMap(depMap,
                                               (this.map.isDefine ? this.map : this.map.parentMap),
                                               false,
                                               !this.skipMap);
                        this.depMaps[i] = depMap;

                        handler = getOwn(handlers, depMap.id);

                        if (handler) {
                            this.depExports[i] = handler(this);
                            return;
                        }

                        this.depCount += 1;

                        on(depMap, 'defined', bind(this, function (depExports) {
                            if (this.undefed) {
                                return;
                            }
                            this.defineDep(i, depExports);
                            this.check();
                        }));

                        if (this.errback) {
                            on(depMap, 'error', bind(this, this.errback));
                        } else if (this.events.error) {
                            // No direct errback on this module, but something
                            // else is listening for errors, so be sure to
                            // propagate the error correctly.
                            on(depMap, 'error', bind(this, function(err) {
                                this.emit('error', err);
                            }));
                        }
                    }

                    id = depMap.id;
                    mod = registry[id];

                    //Skip special modules like 'require', 'exports', 'module'
                    //Also, don't call enable if it is already enabled,
                    //important in circular dependency cases.
                    if (!hasProp(handlers, id) && mod && !mod.enabled) {
                        context.enable(depMap, this);
                    }
                }));

                //Enable each plugin that is used in
                //a dependency
                eachProp(this.pluginMaps, bind(this, function (pluginMap) {
                    var mod = getOwn(registry, pluginMap.id);
                    if (mod && !mod.enabled) {
                        context.enable(pluginMap, this);
                    }
                }));

                this.enabling = false;

                this.check();
            },

            on: function (name, cb) {
                var cbs = this.events[name];
                if (!cbs) {
                    cbs = this.events[name] = [];
                }
                cbs.push(cb);
            },

            emit: function (name, evt) {
                each(this.events[name], function (cb) {
                    cb(evt);
                });
                if (name === 'error') {
                    //Now that the error handler was triggered, remove
                    //the listeners, since this broken Module instance
                    //can stay around for a while in the registry.
                    delete this.events[name];
                }
            }
        };

        function callGetModule(args) {
            //Skip modules already defined.
            if (!hasProp(defined, args[0])) {
                getModule(makeModuleMap(args[0], null, true)).init(args[1], args[2]);
            }
        }

        function removeListener(node, func, name, ieName) {
            //Favor detachEvent because of IE9
            //issue, see attachEvent/addEventListener comment elsewhere
            //in this file.
            if (node.detachEvent && !isOpera) {
                //Probably IE. If not it will throw an error, which will be
                //useful to know.
                if (ieName) {
                    node.detachEvent(ieName, func);
                }
            } else {
                node.removeEventListener(name, func, false);
            }
        }

        /**
         * Given an event from a script node, get the requirejs info from it,
         * and then removes the event listeners on the node.
         * @param {Event} evt
         * @returns {Object}
         */
        function getScriptData(evt) {
            //Using currentTarget instead of target for Firefox 2.0's sake. Not
            //all old browsers will be supported, but this one was easy enough
            //to support and still makes sense.
            var node = evt.currentTarget || evt.srcElement;

            //Remove the listeners once here.
            removeListener(node, context.onScriptLoad, 'load', 'onreadystatechange');
            removeListener(node, context.onScriptError, 'error');

            return {
                node: node,
                id: node && node.getAttribute('data-requiremodule')
            };
        }

        function intakeDefines() {
            var args;

            //Any defined modules in the global queue, intake them now.
            takeGlobalQueue();

            //Make sure any remaining defQueue items get properly processed.
            while (defQueue.length) {
                args = defQueue.shift();
                if (args[0] === null) {
                    return onError(makeError('mismatch', 'Mismatched anonymous define() module: ' +
                        args[args.length - 1]));
                } else {
                    //args are id, deps, factory. Should be normalized by the
                    //define() function.
                    callGetModule(args);
                }
            }
            context.defQueueMap = {};
        }

        context = {
            config: config,
            contextName: contextName,
            registry: registry,
            defined: defined,
            urlFetched: urlFetched,
            defQueue: defQueue,
            defQueueMap: {},
            Module: Module,
            makeModuleMap: makeModuleMap,
            nextTick: req.nextTick,
            onError: onError,

            /**
             * Set a configuration for the context.
             * @param {Object} cfg config object to integrate.
             */
            configure: function (cfg) {
                //Make sure the baseUrl ends in a slash.
                if (cfg.baseUrl) {
                    if (cfg.baseUrl.charAt(cfg.baseUrl.length - 1) !== '/') {
                        cfg.baseUrl += '/';
                    }
                }

                //Save off the paths since they require special processing,
                //they are additive.
                var shim = config.shim,
                    objs = {
                        paths: true,
                        bundles: true,
                        config: true,
                        map: true
                    };

                eachProp(cfg, function (value, prop) {
                    if (objs[prop]) {
                        if (!config[prop]) {
                            config[prop] = {};
                        }
                        mixin(config[prop], value, true, true);
                    } else {
                        config[prop] = value;
                    }
                });

                //Reverse map the bundles
                if (cfg.bundles) {
                    eachProp(cfg.bundles, function (value, prop) {
                        each(value, function (v) {
                            if (v !== prop) {
                                bundlesMap[v] = prop;
                            }
                        });
                    });
                }

                //Merge shim
                if (cfg.shim) {
                    eachProp(cfg.shim, function (value, id) {
                        //Normalize the structure
                        if (isArray(value)) {
                            value = {
                                deps: value
                            };
                        }
                        if ((value.exports || value.init) && !value.exportsFn) {
                            value.exportsFn = context.makeShimExports(value);
                        }
                        shim[id] = value;
                    });
                    config.shim = shim;
                }

                //Adjust packages if necessary.
                if (cfg.packages) {
                    each(cfg.packages, function (pkgObj) {
                        var location, name;

                        pkgObj = typeof pkgObj === 'string' ? {name: pkgObj} : pkgObj;

                        name = pkgObj.name;
                        location = pkgObj.location;
                        if (location) {
                            config.paths[name] = pkgObj.location;
                        }

                        //Save pointer to main module ID for pkg name.
                        //Remove leading dot in main, so main paths are normalized,
                        //and remove any trailing .js, since different package
                        //envs have different conventions: some use a module name,
                        //some use a file name.
                        config.pkgs[name] = pkgObj.name + '/' + (pkgObj.main || 'main')
                                     .replace(currDirRegExp, '')
                                     .replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');
                    });
                }

                //If there are any "waiting to execute" modules in the registry,
                //update the maps for them, since their info, like URLs to load,
                //may have changed.
                eachProp(registry, function (mod, id) {
                    //If module already has init called, since it is too
                    //late to modify them, and ignore unnormalized ones
                    //since they are transient.
                    if (!mod.inited && !mod.map.unnormalized) {
                        mod.map = makeModuleMap(id, null, true);
                    }
                });

                //If a deps array or a config callback is specified, then call
                //require with those args. This is useful when require is defined as a
                //config object before require.js is loaded.
                if (cfg.deps || cfg.callback) {
                    context.require(cfg.deps || [], cfg.callback);
                }
            },

            makeShimExports: function (value) {
                function fn() {
                    var ret;
                    if (value.init) {
                        ret = value.init.apply(global, arguments);
                    }
                    return ret || (value.exports && getGlobal(value.exports));
                }
                return fn;
            },

            makeRequire: function (relMap, options) {
                options = options || {};

                function localRequire(deps, callback, errback) {
                    var id, map, requireMod;

                    if (options.enableBuildCallback && callback && isFunction(callback)) {
                        callback.__requireJsBuild = true;
                    }

                    if (typeof deps === 'string') {
                        if (isFunction(callback)) {
                            //Invalid call
                            return onError(makeError('requireargs', 'Invalid require call'), errback);
                        }

                        //If require|exports|module are requested, get the
                        //value for them from the special handlers. Caveat:
                        //this only works while module is being defined.
                        if (relMap && hasProp(handlers, deps)) {
                            return handlers[deps](registry[relMap.id]);
                        }

                        //Synchronous access to one module. If require.get is
                        //available (as in the Node adapter), prefer that.
                        if (req.get) {
                            return req.get(context, deps, relMap, localRequire);
                        }

                        //Normalize module name, if it contains . or ..
                        map = makeModuleMap(deps, relMap, false, true);
                        id = map.id;

                        if (!hasProp(defined, id)) {
                            return onError(makeError('notloaded', 'Module name "' +
                                        id +
                                        '" has not been loaded yet for context: ' +
                                        contextName +
                                        (relMap ? '' : '. Use require([])')));
                        }
                        return defined[id];
                    }

                    //Grab defines waiting in the global queue.
                    intakeDefines();

                    //Mark all the dependencies as needing to be loaded.
                    context.nextTick(function () {
                        //Some defines could have been added since the
                        //require call, collect them.
                        intakeDefines();

                        requireMod = getModule(makeModuleMap(null, relMap));

                        //Store if map config should be applied to this require
                        //call for dependencies.
                        requireMod.skipMap = options.skipMap;

                        requireMod.init(deps, callback, errback, {
                            enabled: true
                        });

                        checkLoaded();
                    });

                    return localRequire;
                }

                mixin(localRequire, {
                    isBrowser: isBrowser,

                    /**
                     * Converts a module name + .extension into an URL path.
                     * *Requires* the use of a module name. It does not support using
                     * plain URLs like nameToUrl.
                     */
                    toUrl: function (moduleNamePlusExt) {
                        var ext,
                            index = moduleNamePlusExt.lastIndexOf('.'),
                            segment = moduleNamePlusExt.split('/')[0],
                            isRelative = segment === '.' || segment === '..';

                        //Have a file extension alias, and it is not the
                        //dots from a relative path.
                        if (index !== -1 && (!isRelative || index > 1)) {
                            ext = moduleNamePlusExt.substring(index, moduleNamePlusExt.length);
                            moduleNamePlusExt = moduleNamePlusExt.substring(0, index);
                        }

                        return context.nameToUrl(normalize(moduleNamePlusExt,
                                                relMap && relMap.id, true), ext,  true);
                    },

                    defined: function (id) {
                        return hasProp(defined, makeModuleMap(id, relMap, false, true).id);
                    },

                    specified: function (id) {
                        id = makeModuleMap(id, relMap, false, true).id;
                        return hasProp(defined, id) || hasProp(registry, id);
                    }
                });

                //Only allow undef on top level require calls
                if (!relMap) {
                    localRequire.undef = function (id) {
                        //Bind any waiting define() calls to this context,
                        //fix for #408
                        takeGlobalQueue();

                        var map = makeModuleMap(id, relMap, true),
                            mod = getOwn(registry, id);

                        mod.undefed = true;
                        removeScript(id);

                        delete defined[id];
                        delete urlFetched[map.url];
                        delete undefEvents[id];

                        //Clean queued defines too. Go backwards
                        //in array so that the splices do not
                        //mess up the iteration.
                        eachReverse(defQueue, function(args, i) {
                            if (args[0] === id) {
                                defQueue.splice(i, 1);
                            }
                        });
                        delete context.defQueueMap[id];

                        if (mod) {
                            //Hold on to listeners in case the
                            //module will be attempted to be reloaded
                            //using a different config.
                            if (mod.events.defined) {
                                undefEvents[id] = mod.events;
                            }

                            cleanRegistry(id);
                        }
                    };
                }

                return localRequire;
            },

            /**
             * Called to enable a module if it is still in the registry
             * awaiting enablement. A second arg, parent, the parent module,
             * is passed in for context, when this method is overridden by
             * the optimizer. Not shown here to keep code compact.
             */
            enable: function (depMap) {
                var mod = getOwn(registry, depMap.id);
                if (mod) {
                    getModule(depMap).enable();
                }
            },

            /**
             * Internal method used by environment adapters to complete a load event.
             * A load event could be a script load or just a load pass from a synchronous
             * load call.
             * @param {String} moduleName the name of the module to potentially complete.
             */
            completeLoad: function (moduleName) {
                var found, args, mod,
                    shim = getOwn(config.shim, moduleName) || {},
                    shExports = shim.exports;

                takeGlobalQueue();

                while (defQueue.length) {
                    args = defQueue.shift();
                    if (args[0] === null) {
                        args[0] = moduleName;
                        //If already found an anonymous module and bound it
                        //to this name, then this is some other anon module
                        //waiting for its completeLoad to fire.
                        if (found) {
                            break;
                        }
                        found = true;
                    } else if (args[0] === moduleName) {
                        //Found matching define call for this script!
                        found = true;
                    }

                    callGetModule(args);
                }
                context.defQueueMap = {};

                //Do this after the cycle of callGetModule in case the result
                //of those calls/init calls changes the registry.
                mod = getOwn(registry, moduleName);

                if (!found && !hasProp(defined, moduleName) && mod && !mod.inited) {
                    if (config.enforceDefine && (!shExports || !getGlobal(shExports))) {
                        if (hasPathFallback(moduleName)) {
                            return;
                        } else {
                            return onError(makeError('nodefine',
                                             'No define call for ' + moduleName,
                                             null,
                                             [moduleName]));
                        }
                    } else {
                        //A script that does not call define(), so just simulate
                        //the call for it.
                        callGetModule([moduleName, (shim.deps || []), shim.exportsFn]);
                    }
                }

                checkLoaded();
            },

            /**
             * Converts a module name to a file path. Supports cases where
             * moduleName may actually be just an URL.
             * Note that it **does not** call normalize on the moduleName,
             * it is assumed to have already been normalized. This is an
             * internal API, not a public one. Use toUrl for the public API.
             */
            nameToUrl: function (moduleName, ext, skipExt) {
                var paths, syms, i, parentModule, url,
                    parentPath, bundleId,
                    pkgMain = getOwn(config.pkgs, moduleName);

                if (pkgMain) {
                    moduleName = pkgMain;
                }

                bundleId = getOwn(bundlesMap, moduleName);

                if (bundleId) {
                    return context.nameToUrl(bundleId, ext, skipExt);
                }

                //If a colon is in the URL, it indicates a protocol is used and it is just
                //an URL to a file, or if it starts with a slash, contains a query arg (i.e. ?)
                //or ends with .js, then assume the user meant to use an url and not a module id.
                //The slash is important for protocol-less URLs as well as full paths.
                if (req.jsExtRegExp.test(moduleName)) {
                    //Just a plain path, not module name lookup, so just return it.
                    //Add extension if it is included. This is a bit wonky, only non-.js things pass
                    //an extension, this method probably needs to be reworked.
                    url = moduleName + (ext || '');
                } else {
                    //A module that needs to be converted to a path.
                    paths = config.paths;

                    syms = moduleName.split('/');
                    //For each module name segment, see if there is a path
                    //registered for it. Start with most specific name
                    //and work up from it.
                    for (i = syms.length; i > 0; i -= 1) {
                        parentModule = syms.slice(0, i).join('/');

                        parentPath = getOwn(paths, parentModule);
                        if (parentPath) {
                            //If an array, it means there are a few choices,
                            //Choose the one that is desired
                            if (isArray(parentPath)) {
                                parentPath = parentPath[0];
                            }
                            syms.splice(0, i, parentPath);
                            break;
                        }
                    }

                    //Join the path parts together, then figure out if baseUrl is needed.
                    url = syms.join('/');
                    url += (ext || (/^data\:|\?/.test(url) || skipExt ? '' : '.js'));
                    url = (url.charAt(0) === '/' || url.match(/^[\w\+\.\-]+:/) ? '' : config.baseUrl) + url;
                }

                return config.urlArgs ? url +
                                        ((url.indexOf('?') === -1 ? '?' : '&') +
                                         config.urlArgs) : url;
            },

            //Delegates to req.load. Broken out as a separate function to
            //allow overriding in the optimizer.
            load: function (id, url) {
                req.load(context, id, url);
            },

            /**
             * Executes a module callback function. Broken out as a separate function
             * solely to allow the build system to sequence the files in the built
             * layer in the right sequence.
             *
             * @private
             */
            execCb: function (name, callback, args, exports) {
                return callback.apply(exports, args);
            },

            /**
             * callback for script loads, used to check status of loading.
             *
             * @param {Event} evt the event from the browser for the script
             * that was loaded.
             */
            onScriptLoad: function (evt) {
                //Using currentTarget instead of target for Firefox 2.0's sake. Not
                //all old browsers will be supported, but this one was easy enough
                //to support and still makes sense.
                if (evt.type === 'load' ||
                        (readyRegExp.test((evt.currentTarget || evt.srcElement).readyState))) {
                    //Reset interactive script so a script node is not held onto for
                    //to long.
                    interactiveScript = null;

                    //Pull out the name of the module and the context.
                    var data = getScriptData(evt);
                    context.completeLoad(data.id);
                }
            },

            /**
             * Callback for script errors.
             */
            onScriptError: function (evt) {
                var data = getScriptData(evt);
                if (!hasPathFallback(data.id)) {
                    var parents = [];
                    eachProp(registry, function(value, key) {
                        if (key.indexOf('_@r') !== 0) {
                            each(value.depMaps, function(depMap) {
                                if (depMap.id === data.id) {
                                    parents.push(key);
                                }
                                return true;
                            });
                        }
                    });
                    return onError(makeError('scripterror', 'Script error for "' + data.id +
                                             (parents.length ?
                                             '", needed by: ' + parents.join(', ') :
                                             '"'), evt, [data.id]));
                }
            }
        };

        context.require = context.makeRequire();
        return context;
    }

    /**
     * Main entry point.
     *
     * If the only argument to require is a string, then the module that
     * is represented by that string is fetched for the appropriate context.
     *
     * If the first argument is an array, then it will be treated as an array
     * of dependency string names to fetch. An optional function callback can
     * be specified to execute when all of those dependencies are available.
     *
     * Make a local req variable to help Caja compliance (it assumes things
     * on a require that are not standardized), and to give a short
     * name for minification/local scope use.
     */
    req = requirejs = function (deps, callback, errback, optional) {

        //Find the right context, use default
        var context, config,
            contextName = defContextName;

        // Determine if have config object in the call.
        if (!isArray(deps) && typeof deps !== 'string') {
            // deps is a config object
            config = deps;
            if (isArray(callback)) {
                // Adjust args if there are dependencies
                deps = callback;
                callback = errback;
                errback = optional;
            } else {
                deps = [];
            }
        }

        if (config && config.context) {
            contextName = config.context;
        }

        context = getOwn(contexts, contextName);
        if (!context) {
            context = contexts[contextName] = req.s.newContext(contextName);
        }

        if (config) {
            context.configure(config);
        }

        return context.require(deps, callback, errback);
    };

    /**
     * Support require.config() to make it easier to cooperate with other
     * AMD loaders on globally agreed names.
     */
    req.config = function (config) {
        return req(config);
    };

    /**
     * Execute something after the current tick
     * of the event loop. Override for other envs
     * that have a better solution than setTimeout.
     * @param  {Function} fn function to execute later.
     */
    req.nextTick = typeof setTimeout !== 'undefined' ? function (fn) {
        setTimeout(fn, 4);
    } : function (fn) { fn(); };

    /**
     * Export require as a global, but only if it does not already exist.
     */
    if (!require) {
        require = req;
    }

    req.version = version;

    //Used to filter out dependencies that are already paths.
    req.jsExtRegExp = /^\/|:|\?|\.js$/;
    req.isBrowser = isBrowser;
    s = req.s = {
        contexts: contexts,
        newContext: newContext
    };

    //Create default context.
    req({});

    //Exports some context-sensitive methods on global require.
    each([
        'toUrl',
        'undef',
        'defined',
        'specified'
    ], function (prop) {
        //Reference from contexts instead of early binding to default context,
        //so that during builds, the latest instance of the default context
        //with its config gets used.
        req[prop] = function () {
            var ctx = contexts[defContextName];
            return ctx.require[prop].apply(ctx, arguments);
        };
    });

    if (isBrowser) {
        head = s.head = document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0];
        //If BASE tag is in play, using appendChild is a problem for IE6.
        //When that browser dies, this can be removed. Details in this jQuery bug:
        //http://dev.jquery.com/ticket/2709
        baseElement = document.getElementsByTagName('base')[0];
        if (baseElement) {
            head = s.head = baseElement.parentNode;
        }
    }

    /**
     * Any errors that require explicitly generates will be passed to this
     * function. Intercept/override it if you want custom error handling.
     * @param {Error} err the error object.
     */
    req.onError = defaultOnError;

    /**
     * Creates the node for the load command. Only used in browser envs.
     */
    req.createNode = function (config, moduleName, url) {
        var node = config.xhtml ?
                document.createElementNS('http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml', 'html:script') :
                document.createElement('script');
        node.type = config.scriptType || 'text/javascript';
        node.charset = 'utf-8';
        node.async = true;
        return node;
    };

    /**
     * Does the request to load a module for the browser case.
     * Make this a separate function to allow other environments
     * to override it.
     *
     * @param {Object} context the require context to find state.
     * @param {String} moduleName the name of the module.
     * @param {Object} url the URL to the module.
     */
    req.load = function (context, moduleName, url) {
        var config = (context && context.config) || {},
            node;
        if (isBrowser) {
            //In the browser so use a script tag
            node = req.createNode(config, moduleName, url);
            if (config.onNodeCreated) {
                config.onNodeCreated(node, config, moduleName, url);
            }

            node.setAttribute('data-requirecontext', context.contextName);
            node.setAttribute('data-requiremodule', moduleName);

            //Set up load listener. Test attachEvent first because IE9 has
            //a subtle issue in its addEventListener and script onload firings
            //that do not match the behavior of all other browsers with
            //addEventListener support, which fire the onload event for a
            //script right after the script execution. See:
            //https://connect.microsoft.com/IE/feedback/details/648057/script-onload-event-is-not-fired-immediately-after-script-execution
            //UNFORTUNATELY Opera implements attachEvent but does not follow the script
            //script execution mode.
            if (node.attachEvent &&
                    //Check if node.attachEvent is artificially added by custom script or
                    //natively supported by browser
                    //read https://github.com/jrburke/requirejs/issues/187
                    //if we can NOT find [native code] then it must NOT natively supported.
                    //in IE8, node.attachEvent does not have toString()
                    //Note the test for "[native code" with no closing brace, see:
                    //https://github.com/jrburke/requirejs/issues/273
                    !(node.attachEvent.toString && node.attachEvent.toString().indexOf('[native code') < 0) &&
                    !isOpera) {
                //Probably IE. IE (at least 6-8) do not fire
                //script onload right after executing the script, so
                //we cannot tie the anonymous define call to a name.
                //However, IE reports the script as being in 'interactive'
                //readyState at the time of the define call.
                useInteractive = true;

                node.attachEvent('onreadystatechange', context.onScriptLoad);
                //It would be great to add an error handler here to catch
                //404s in IE9+. However, onreadystatechange will fire before
                //the error handler, so that does not help. If addEventListener
                //is used, then IE will fire error before load, but we cannot
                //use that pathway given the connect.microsoft.com issue
                //mentioned above about not doing the 'script execute,
                //then fire the script load event listener before execute
                //next script' that other browsers do.
                //Best hope: IE10 fixes the issues,
                //and then destroys all installs of IE 6-9.
                //node.attachEvent('onerror', context.onScriptError);
            } else {
                node.addEventListener('load', context.onScriptLoad, false);
                node.addEventListener('error', context.onScriptError, false);
            }
            node.src = url;

            //For some cache cases in IE 6-8, the script executes before the end
            //of the appendChild execution, so to tie an anonymous define
            //call to the module name (which is stored on the node), hold on
            //to a reference to this node, but clear after the DOM insertion.
            currentlyAddingScript = node;
            if (baseElement) {
                head.insertBefore(node, baseElement);
            } else {
                head.appendChild(node);
            }
            currentlyAddingScript = null;

            return node;
        } else if (isWebWorker) {
            try {
                //In a web worker, use importScripts. This is not a very
                //efficient use of importScripts, importScripts will block until
                //its script is downloaded and evaluated. However, if web workers
                //are in play, the expectation is that a build has been done so
                //that only one script needs to be loaded anyway. This may need
                //to be reevaluated if other use cases become common.
                importScripts(url);

                //Account for anonymous modules
                context.completeLoad(moduleName);
            } catch (e) {
                context.onError(makeError('importscripts',
                                'importScripts failed for ' +
                                    moduleName + ' at ' + url,
                                e,
                                [moduleName]));
            }
        }
    };

    function getInteractiveScript() {
        if (interactiveScript && interactiveScript.readyState === 'interactive') {
            return interactiveScript;
        }

        eachReverse(scripts(), function (script) {
            if (script.readyState === 'interactive') {
                return (interactiveScript = script);
            }
        });
        return interactiveScript;
    }

    //Look for a data-main script attribute, which could also adjust the baseUrl.
    if (isBrowser && !cfg.skipDataMain) {
        //Figure out baseUrl. Get it from the script tag with require.js in it.
        eachReverse(scripts(), function (script) {
            //Set the 'head' where we can append children by
            //using the script's parent.
            if (!head) {
                head = script.parentNode;
            }

            //Look for a data-main attribute to set main script for the page
            //to load. If it is there, the path to data main becomes the
            //baseUrl, if it is not already set.
            dataMain = script.getAttribute('data-main');
            if (dataMain) {
                //Preserve dataMain in case it is a path (i.e. contains '?')
                mainScript = dataMain;

                //Set final baseUrl if there is not already an explicit one.
                if (!cfg.baseUrl) {
                    //Pull off the directory of data-main for use as the
                    //baseUrl.
                    src = mainScript.split('/');
                    mainScript = src.pop();
                    subPath = src.length ? src.join('/')  + '/' : './';

                    cfg.baseUrl = subPath;
                }

                //Strip off any trailing .js since mainScript is now
                //like a module name.
                mainScript = mainScript.replace(jsSuffixRegExp, '');

                //If mainScript is still a path, fall back to dataMain
                if (req.jsExtRegExp.test(mainScript)) {
                    mainScript = dataMain;
                }

                //Put the data-main script in the files to load.
                cfg.deps = cfg.deps ? cfg.deps.concat(mainScript) : [mainScript];

                return true;
            }
        });
    }

    /**
     * The function that handles definitions of modules. Differs from
     * require() in that a string for the module should be the first argument,
     * and the function to execute after dependencies are loaded should
     * return a value to define the module corresponding to the first argument's
     * name.
     */
    define = function (name, deps, callback) {
        var node, context;

        //Allow for anonymous modules
        if (typeof name !== 'string') {
            //Adjust args appropriately
            callback = deps;
            deps = name;
            name = null;
        }

        //This module may not have dependencies
        if (!isArray(deps)) {
            callback = deps;
            deps = null;
        }

        //If no name, and callback is a function, then figure out if it a
        //CommonJS thing with dependencies.
        if (!deps && isFunction(callback)) {
            deps = [];
            //Remove comments from the callback string,
            //look for require calls, and pull them into the dependencies,
            //but only if there are function args.
            if (callback.length) {
                callback
                    .toString()
                    .replace(commentRegExp, '')
                    .replace(cjsRequireRegExp, function (match, dep) {
                        deps.push(dep);
                    });

                //May be a CommonJS thing even without require calls, but still
                //could use exports, and module. Avoid doing exports and module
                //work though if it just needs require.
                //REQUIRES the function to expect the CommonJS variables in the
                //order listed below.
                deps = (callback.length === 1 ? ['require'] : ['require', 'exports', 'module']).concat(deps);
            }
        }

        //If in IE 6-8 and hit an anonymous define() call, do the interactive
        //work.
        if (useInteractive) {
            node = currentlyAddingScript || getInteractiveScript();
            if (node) {
                if (!name) {
                    name = node.getAttribute('data-requiremodule');
                }
                context = contexts[node.getAttribute('data-requirecontext')];
            }
        }

        //Always save off evaluating the def call until the script onload handler.
        //This allows multiple modules to be in a file without prematurely
        //tracing dependencies, and allows for anonymous module support,
        //where the module name is not known until the script onload event
        //occurs. If no context, use the global queue, and get it processed
        //in the onscript load callback.
        if (context) {
            context.defQueue.push([name, deps, callback]);
            context.defQueueMap[name] = true;
        } else {
            globalDefQueue.push([name, deps, callback]);
        }
    };

    define.amd = {
        jQuery: true
    };

    /**
     * Executes the text. Normally just uses eval, but can be modified
     * to use a better, environment-specific call. Only used for transpiling
     * loader plugins, not for plain JS modules.
     * @param {String} text the text to execute/evaluate.
     */
    req.exec = function (text) {
        /*jslint evil: true */
        return eval(text);
    };

    //Set up with config info.
    req(cfg);
}(this));
",
"ok": true,
"headers": [
[
"content-type",
"application/javascript"
]
],
"status": 200,
"status_text": ""
}
},
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 1000
}
},
"source": [
"# pure LASSO (not LASSO followed by OLS on selected subset) (Shouldnt make a difference)\n",
"configure_plotly_browser_state()\n",
"def create_model_lasso():\n",
" return LassoLarsIC(criterion='aic')\n",
"\n",
"# use all predictors at each timestep\n",
"backtestmodel = BacktestModel(X, Y,\n",
" create_model=create_model_lasso,\n",
" coef_dict_param=\"all\",\n",
" startindex=FIRST_TRAIN_MONTHS,\n",
" fit_missing='mean',\n",
" scaler=None)\n",
"backtestmodel.gen_predictions(verbose=False)\n",
"backtestmodel.gen_returns(calc_returns, verbose=False)\n",
"backtestmodel.report_returns(start_date=start_date_str, freq='M')\n",
"backtestmodel.evaluate_predictions()\n",
"backtestmodel.evaluate_quantiles(chart=True, verbose=False)\n",
"perf_LASSO_only = backtestmodel.cumulative_return\n",
"mychart([perf_LASSO_only],[\"LASSO only\"], title=\"LASSO only\")\n"
],
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
"text/html": [
"\n",
" <script src=\"/static/components/requirejs/require.js\"></script>\n",
" <script>\n",
" requirejs.config({\n",
" paths: {\n",
" base: '/static/base',\n",
" plotly: 'https://cdn.plot.ly/plotly-latest.min.js?noext',\n",
" },\n",
" });\n",
" </script>\n",
" "
],
"text/plain": [
"<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"
]
},
"metadata": {}
},
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"................................................................................\n",
"15:10:33 Still training step 80 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:11:08 Still training step 160 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:11:55 Still training step 240 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:12:43 Still training step 320 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:13:32 Still training step 400 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:14:21 Still training step 480 of 563\n",
"................................................................................\n",
"15:15:12 Still training step 560 of 563\n",
"...\n",
"Mean return: 3.109%\n",
"Monthly Sharpe ratio: 0.560\n",
"OOS MSE across all predictions: 40.1228\n",
"In-sample MSE: 35.9913\n",
"Variance: 39.4097\n",
"R-squared: -0.0181\n",
"Avg rank correlation (Kendall's tau): 0.0313 (Expected: 0)\n",
"5-quintile accuracy: 0.2210 (Expected: 0.2)\n",
"Long/short/flat accuracy: 0.4601 (Expected: 0.44)\n",
"Excess true positive in quintiles 1 + 5: 200.800000\n"
]
},
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
"image/png": 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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 720x720 with 2 Axes>"
]
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},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "uPZlQ5vtfkZp",
"outputId": "3c0a33df-073e-4198-87f8-edcee76005e0",
"colab": {
"resources": {
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