Gavin Leech g-leech
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| import numpy as np | |
| # impossible 0 | |
| # v unlik 10 | |
| # unlik 25 | |
| # lik 75 | |
| # vv likely 99.5 | |
| preds = [ | |
| [0, 1], | |
| [0.75, 1], |
g-leech
/ match_data_extrapolation.py
Created
July 9, 2021 17:13
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| # You can get your own copy of the MCMC trace: https://github.com/g-leech/masks_v_mandates#run | |
| # but I've included the quantiles in this script for reproducibility. | |
| import numpy as np | |
| sns.set_style("whitegrid") | |
| def exp_reduction(a, x): | |
| reductions = 1 - np.exp((-1.0) * a * x) | |
| return reductions.mean() |
g-leech
/ cold_takes_analysis.ipynb
Last active
June 20, 2022 10:00
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g-leech
/ Cold_Takes_Tables.ipynb
Last active
June 25, 2022 10:11
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g-leech
/ calibration_hist.py
Created
April 18, 2023 11:47
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| import numpy as np | |
| import gjp | |
| # https://github.com/niplav/iqisa/blob/master/iqisa.py | |
| import iqisa as iqs | |
| import matplotlib.pyplot as plt | |
| df=gjp.load_markets() | |
| df["isCorrect"] = (df.outcome == df.answer_option).astype(float) | |
| fig = plt.figure(figsize=(9, 9)) |
g-leech
/ tweets2023
Created
December 7, 2023 16:01
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| https://twitter.com/g_leech_/status/1728731355029393447?t=VN50RyPqwWFfcC63tMP_ng&s=19 | |
| https://twitter.com/g_leech_/status/1723630099507871780?t=YFYUi0eNkkLXOzzmbMtoGA&s=19 | |
| https://twitter.com/g_leech_/status/1623044128190697483 | |
| https://twitter.com/g_leech_/status/1639725932448456705 | |
| https://twitter.com/g_leech_/status/1630276985963556865 | |
| https://twitter.com/g_leech_/status/1622321776595189765 | |
| https://twitter.com/g_leech_/status/1668960035068694533 | |
| https://twitter.com/g_leech_/status/1715654603973312949 | |
| https://twitter.com/g_leech_/status/1713930232632135986 | |
| https://twitter.com/g_leech_/status/1711441986878644597 |
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