Mike McNeil, Aug 2014
Humans are not very good at planning. We have no problem running scenarios, thinking through possibilities, and pondering "what if?" questions. I might plan to not eat my cousin's birthday cake before she gets home, for instance. If I'm very serious, I might write down my commitment; or if I'm unsure about the pros and cons, use some organizational tool like a T-chart.
But when it comes to making a decision in the moment, all bets are off. The cake is a goner.
Predictive Analysis vs. Process Design
Below, I've included a figure containing a decision tree diagram.