@thickSLICING @PlusEVAnalytics 1/2 kelly, sim bets with win% = vig free odds,
get end roll in 5th ptile, use that for simul kelly. thoughts?
- I have projections for the fights on a UFC card.
- I want to make bets on the fights where I have an edge, and I want to make them all at once before any fights start.
- Using half kelly.
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name1 | name2 | pred1 | pred2 | pinny1 | pinny2 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Robbie Lawler | Carlos Condit | 0.6361 | 0.3639 | -115 | -115 | |
Stipe Miocic | Andrei Arlovski | 0.4823 | 0.5177 | -225 | 175 | |
Lorenz Larkin | Albert Tumenov | 0.4472 | 0.5528 | 210 | -270 | |
Brian Ortega | Diego Brandao | 0.5817 | 0.4183 | -200 | 160 | |
Tony Sims | Abel Trujillo | 0.5087 | 0.4913 | -160 | 130 | |
Drew Dober | Scott Holtzman | 0.3578 | 0.6422 | 150 | -190 | |
Masanori Kanehara | Michael McDonald | 0.2823 | 0.7177 | 400 | -600 | |
Sheldon Westcott | Edgar Garcia | 0.3467 | 0.6533 | -160 | 130 | |
Joe Soto | Michinori Tanaka | 0.2914 | 0.7086 | 105 | -135 |
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require 'open-uri' | |
require 'mharris_ext' | |
require 'nokogiri' | |
doc = Nokogiri::HTML(open("fightnight.html")) | |
def fighter_name(node) | |
node.text.gsub("WIN","").gsub("**","").strip | |
end |
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# the home team's win chance for a normal team not at a neutral field | |
def home_chance_normal(sim_context,away_team_arg,home_team_arg) | |
# away team dvoa, minus 5% if it's the divisional round | |
away = sim_context.dvoa(away_team_arg) - home_extra_bonus.to_f | |
# home team dvoa, capped at 40% | |
home = [0.40,sim_context.dvoa(home_team_arg)].min | |
# min_max(-0.35..0.35) restricts the value to between -35% and 35% | |
# abs_exp(2) squares it and returns the absolute value |
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1153 Sure Gamble (Core Set) | |
1086 Hedge Fund (Core Set) | |
963 Jackson Howard (Opening Moves) | |
625 Corroder (Core Set) | |
593 Same Old Thing (Creation and Control) | |
586 Clone Chip (Creation and Control) | |
560 R&D Interface (Future Proof) | |
533 Diesel (Core Set) | |
529 Plascrete Carapace (What Lies Ahead) | |
526 NAPD Contract (Double Time) |
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require 'nokogiri' | |
require 'open-uri' | |
def players | |
list_of_players = [] | |
f = File.open("PGpage.htm") | |
doc = Nokogiri::HTML(f) | |
rows = doc.css("tr.ranking_row a text(), tr.ranking_alt_row") |
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require 'open-uri' | |
require 'nokogiri' | |
def links | |
res = [] | |
doc = Nokogiri::HTML(open("http://www.perfectgame.org/Rankings/Players/Default.aspx?gyear=2015&num=500")) | |
doc.css("tr.ranking_row, tr.ranking_alt_row").each do |row| | |
row.css("td:eq(4) a").each do |link| | |
res << link.attr('href') |
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import Ember from 'ember'; | |
export default Ember.Mixin.create({ | |
changeOrder: function() { | |
this.get('model').setOtherParam('order',this.get('order')); | |
}.observes('order') | |
}); |