cov19-80.ipynb

{"cells":[{"metadata":{"trusted":true},"cell_type":"code","source":"# 2019년 기준 80세 이상 인구 수\n# http://kosis.kr/statHtml/statHtml.do?orgId=101&tblId=DT_1B040M5\npopulation = 1769298.5\n\n# 3월 11일 80세 이상 확진/사망\ninfected = 236\ndeath = 17\n\n# 감염자 비율 (모두 검사를 받았다는 가정 하에)\nC = infected / population\nC","execution_count":1,"outputs":[{"output_type":"execute_result","execution_count":1,"data":{"text/plain":"0.00013338619797620356"},"metadata":{}}]},{"metadata":{"trusted":true},"cell_type":"code","source":"# 80세 이상 사망률\n# http://kosis.kr/statHtml/statHtml.do?orgId=101&tblId=DT_1B80A13\nD = 0.084077","execution_count":2,"outputs":[]},{"metadata":{"trusted":true},"cell_type":"code","source":"# covid-19가 아니었다면 사망하지 않았을 사람들 (기간은 1달)\ndeath - infected * D * (1/12)","execution_count":3,"outputs":[{"output_type":"execute_result","execution_count":3,"data":{"text/plain":"15.346485666666666"},"metadata":{}}]},{"metadata":{"trusted":true},"cell_type":"code","source":"# 3월 11일 80세 이상 코로나19 치사율\n# http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/upload/viewer/skin/doc.html?fn=1583903666402_20200311141426.pdf&rs=/upload/viewer/result/202003/\nD_C = 0.072","execution_count":4,"outputs":[]},{"metadata":{"trusted":true},"cell_type":"code","source":"# 80세 이상이 코로나 때문에 사망했을 확률 (사후 확률)\nC_D = (D_C * C) / D\n\nprint(\"%f%%\" % (C_D*100))\nprint(\"10만명당 약 %d명\" % (C_D*100000))","execution_count":5,"outputs":[{"output_type":"stream","text":"0.011423%\n10만명당 약 11명\n","name":"stdout"}]}],"metadata":{"kernelspec":{"name":"python3","display_name":"Python 3","language":"python"},"language_info":{"name":"python","version":"3.6.10","mimetype":"text/x-python","codemirror_mode":{"name":"ipython","version":3},"pygments_lexer":"ipython3","nbconvert_exporter":"python","file_extension":".py"}},"nbformat":4,"nbformat_minor":4}