This or That?

XvX.ipynb

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   "source": [
    "import itertools\n",
    "import math\n",
    "import random\n",
    "\n",
    "import trueskill as ts # http://trueskill.org/"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 27,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "things = [\n",
    "    'Half-life 2',\n",
    "    'Portal',\n",
    "    'Portal 2',\n",
    "    'HL2: Episode One',\n",
    "    'HL2: Episode Two',\n",
    "    'Inside',\n",
    "    'Limbo',\n",
    "    'Furi',\n",
    "    'Overwatch',\n",
    "    'Dead Cells',\n",
    "    'GTA V',\n",
    "    'Team Fortress 2',\n",
    "    'Runner2',\n",
    "    'Civilization VI',\n",
    "    'Civilization V',\n",
    "]\n",
    "\n",
    "tse = ts.TrueSkill()\n",
    "ratings = {\n",
    "    name: tse.create_rating()\n",
    "    for name\n",
    "    in things\n",
    "}"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 44,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "already_compared = set()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 65,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "\"q\" to quit. \"x\" for draws.\n",
      "\n",
      "              Which game is better?               \n",
      "--------------------------------------------------\n",
      "            A                        B            \n",
      "abandoning GTA V v Furi (low quality, 0.14607010133179865)\n",
      "         Runner2                   Limbo           > b\n",
      "     Civilization VI               Furi            > b\n",
      "abandoning Portal v GTA V (low quality, 0.06135526166854186)\n",
      "abandoning GTA V v Inside (low quality, 0.01650739079838616)\n",
      "         Portal                   Runner2          > a\n",
      "abandoning GTA V v Inside (low quality, 0.01650739079838616)\n",
      "        Overwatch             Team Fortress 2      > b\n",
      "     Civilization V               Runner2          > a\n",
      "    HL2: Episode Two               Furi            > a\n",
      "     Civilization V             Dead Cells         > b\n",
      "         Portal               Team Fortress 2      > a\n",
      "    HL2: Episode One               GTA V           > a\n",
      "        Portal 2                 Overwatch         > a\n",
      "     Civilization VI              Portal           > a\n",
      "       Half-life 2            Civilization VI      > a\n",
      "       Half-life 2               Overwatch         > a\n",
      "        Portal 2             HL2: Episode One      > a\n",
      "         Inside               Civilization VI      > a\n",
      "       Half-life 2                Portal           > b\n",
      "     Team Fortress 2             Portal 2          > b\n",
      "       Dead Cells             Team Fortress 2      > b\n",
      "abandoning GTA V v Team Fortress 2 (low quality, 0.07598480839640576)\n",
      "     Team Fortress 2          Civilization V       > a\n",
      "abandoning GTA V v Portal (low quality, 0.02038641592390918)\n",
      "         Inside              HL2: Episode Two      > a\n",
      "    HL2: Episode One          Civilization VI      > b\n",
      "         Portal              HL2: Episode Two      > a\n",
      "        Overwatch            HL2: Episode Two      > b\n",
      "        Overwatch             Civilization VI      > a\n",
      "         Portal                  Overwatch         > a\n",
      "       Half-life 2                 Limbo           > b\n",
      "          Furi                    Inside           > b\n",
      "       Dead Cells                 Runner2          > a\n",
      "abandoning Half-life 2 v GTA V (low quality, 0.03691856590881096)\n",
      "abandoning Civilization V v Portal (low quality, 0.0627472588791589)\n",
      "         Runner2              Civilization VI      > b\n",
      "          Furi                    Runner2          > a\n",
      "        Portal 2             HL2: Episode Two      > a\n",
      "abandoning Portal v GTA V (low quality, 0.01163142820286043)\n",
      "         Inside                 Half-life 2        > a\n",
      "abandoning Runner2 v Half-life 2 (low quality, 0.07800893333120992)\n",
      "        Portal 2              Civilization VI      > a\n",
      "       Dead Cells               Half-life 2        > b\n",
      "abandoning GTA V v Half-life 2 (low quality, 0.03657380456512426)\n",
      "    HL2: Episode Two          Team Fortress 2      > b\n",
      "abandoning Runner2 v Team Fortress 2 (low quality, 0.07634956312685778)\n",
      "abandoning GTA V v Inside (low quality, 0.0023413686447429616)\n",
      "          Furi                     Limbo           > a\n",
      "    HL2: Episode One          Civilization V       > q\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "title = 'Which game is better?'\n",
    "\n",
    "print('\"q\" to quit. \"x\" for draws.\\n\\n'\n",
    "      '{:^50s}\\n{:^50s}\\n{:^25s}{:^25s}'.format(\n",
    "    title, '-' * 50,\n",
    "    'A', 'B',\n",
    "))\n",
    "\n",
    "while True:\n",
    "    games = list(ratings)\n",
    "    for attempt in range(10):\n",
    "        fight = random.sample(games, 2)\n",
    "        key = tuple(sorted(fight))\n",
    "        if key in already_compared:\n",
    "            continue\n",
    "        \n",
    "        quality = tse.quality_1vs1(ratings[fight[0]], ratings[fight[1]])\n",
    "        if attempt < 8 and quality < 0.15:\n",
    "            print('abandoning {} v {} (low quality, {})'.format(*fight, quality))\n",
    "            continue\n",
    "        already_compared.add(key)\n",
    "        break\n",
    "\n",
    "    g1, g2 = fight\n",
    "    result = input('{:^25s}{:^25s} > '.format(g1, g2))\n",
    "\n",
    "    char = result.lower().strip()\n",
    "    if char == 'q':\n",
    "        break\n",
    "    elif char == 'x':\n",
    "        ratings[g1], ratings[g2] = ts.rate_1vs1(ratings[g1], ratings[g2], drawn=True)        \n",
    "    elif char == 'a':\n",
    "        ratings[g1], ratings[g2] = ts.rate_1vs1(ratings[g1], ratings[g2])\n",
    "    elif char == 'b':\n",
    "        ratings[g2], ratings[g1] = ts.rate_1vs1(ratings[g2], ratings[g1])\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 67,
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      "text/plain": [
       "79"
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     "execution_count": 67,
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   "source": [
    "len(already_compared)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 66,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[('Inside', trueskill.Rating(mu=38.706, sigma=4.084)),\n",
       " ('Portal 2', trueskill.Rating(mu=37.698, sigma=4.305)),\n",
       " ('Portal', trueskill.Rating(mu=33.797, sigma=3.599)),\n",
       " ('Limbo', trueskill.Rating(mu=30.331, sigma=4.167)),\n",
       " ('Half-life 2', trueskill.Rating(mu=29.989, sigma=3.299)),\n",
       " ('Team Fortress 2', trueskill.Rating(mu=29.957, sigma=3.720)),\n",
       " ('Furi', trueskill.Rating(mu=28.261, sigma=3.281)),\n",
       " ('HL2: Episode Two', trueskill.Rating(mu=25.507, sigma=2.935)),\n",
       " ('Civilization VI', trueskill.Rating(mu=24.818, sigma=3.152)),\n",
       " ('Overwatch', trueskill.Rating(mu=23.002, sigma=3.703)),\n",
       " ('HL2: Episode One', trueskill.Rating(mu=19.766, sigma=3.827)),\n",
       " ('Dead Cells', trueskill.Rating(mu=19.679, sigma=3.116)),\n",
       " ('Civilization V', trueskill.Rating(mu=16.525, sigma=3.472)),\n",
       " ('Runner2', trueskill.Rating(mu=13.179, sigma=3.607)),\n",
       " ('GTA V', trueskill.Rating(mu=10.175, sigma=4.477))]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 66,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "ordered_ratings = list(ratings.items())\n",
    "ordered_ratings.sort(key=lambda item: item[1].mu, reverse=True)\n",
    "ordered_ratings"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 74,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def win_probability(team1, team2, ts_env=None):\n",
    "    # adapted from https://github.com/sublee/trueskill/issues/1#issuecomment-149762508\n",
    "    if ts_env is None:\n",
    "        ts_env = ts.global_env()\n",
    "    delta_mu = sum(r.mu for r in team1) - sum(r.mu for r in team2)\n",
    "    sum_sigma = sum(r.sigma ** 2 for r in itertools.chain(team1, team2))\n",
    "    size = len(team1) + len(team2)\n",
    "    denom = math.sqrt(size * (tse.beta * tse.beta) + sum_sigma)\n",
    "    return ts_env.cdf(delta_mu / denom)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 75,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
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   "outputs": [
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       "0.9956040458083428"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 75,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "win_probability([ratings['Portal 2']], [ratings['Civilization V']], ts_env=tse)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 76,
   "metadata": {
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      ]
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     "execution_count": 76,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "win_probability([ratings['Portal 2']], [ratings['Portal']], ts_env=tse)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
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