api.hurricanes.json

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has weakened a little overnight.  The cloud pattern has lost   some organization with the convection more asymmetric and not quite   as deep as it was several hours ago. The Dvorak CI-numbers have   decreased to 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the initial wind   speed is lowered to 80 kt based on that data. Gaston is expected to   cross the 26 deg C isotherm later today while it remains in an   environment of moderate southwesterly shear.  These conditions   should cause steady weakening, and Gaston will likely fall below   hurricane strength by tonight. Continued weakening is forecast   when the cyclone moves near the Azores on Friday.  The NHC intensity   forecast is in best agreement with the intensity model consensus.      The hurricane is moving quickly east-northeastward about 17 kt. This   general motion is expected to continue during the next day while   Gaston remains embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  A decrease   in forward speed is predicted after that time due to the approach of   a large extratropical low.  Gaston will likely be absorbed by the   extratropical low in about 3 days. The NHC track forecast lies near   the middle of the tightly-packed models.      Based on the current forecast, the Azores Meteorological Service has   issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the western-most islands of   Flores and Corvo.      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS      INIT  01/0900Z 36.8N  43.3W   80 KT  90 MPH    12H  01/1800Z 37.9N  39.9W   70 KT  80 MPH    24H  02/0600Z 38.7N  35.4W   60 KT  70 MPH    36H  02/1800Z 39.2N  31.8W   50 KT  60 MPH    48H  03/0600Z 40.0N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH    72H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED      $$   Forecaster Cangialosi 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eye has re-emerged from cloud cover within the past hour   or so and deep convective cloud tops have begun to cool again, into   the -66 to -71 degree Celsius range as of 1330 UTC. However,   subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from the analysis   centers continue to depict a slowly weakening system. These   estimates range from 5.0/90 kt from PHFO to 4.5/77 kt from JTWC and   SAB. UW-CIMSS provided an ADT of 4.8/85 kt. Given Lester's very   recent eye reappearance, continued good organization and CDO   symmetry with little or no shear deformation, we will assign 90 kt   for initial intensity. This represents slight weakening from last   time, but is at the high end of available intensity estimates.      Initial motion is 280/12 kt. However, some wobbling has   accompanied the eye re-emergence. The steering mechanism   remains unchanged as Lester continues to move generally westward   along the southern flank of a strong subtropical ridge. Upper   troughing expected to persist over and northwest of the main   Hawaiian Islands should allow Lester to gradually gain latitude   through the 5 day forecast period. Track guidance remains tightly   packed, depicting a gradual turn toward the west northwest through   day 2, then toward the northwest afterwards. UKMET and GFDL take   Lester over the main Hawaiian Islands, but all other commonly-used   guidance take Lester northeast of the Islands. HWRF is the right   outlier, while ECMWF and GFS lie within the right half of the   envelope. The forecast track closely follows the last one through 96   hours. The 120 hour point was adjusted to the northeast to keep the   total forecast track aligned with TVCN consensus. Like most of   the guidance, this track takes Lester northeast of the main   Hawaiian Islands. That said, it would take only a small leftward   shift in the track to directly and profoundly affect the Islands.   This possibility must be considered when making preparation plans   over the next couple of days.      All intensity guidance show Lester weakening through day 5, but at   different rates. Like last time, the global models want to keep   Lester relative strong, with GFS depicting a hurricane at day 5. In   contrast, SHIPS degrades Lester to a tropical storm at 48 hours. We   have followed IVCN consensus through 96 hours, then continued the   weakening trend after that as IVCN levels off.      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS      INIT  01/1500Z 18.4N 143.7W   90 KT 105 MPH    12H  02/0000Z 18.8N 145.6W   80 KT  90 MPH    24H  02/1200Z 19.4N 148.1W   75 KT  85 MPH    36H  03/0000Z 20.2N 150.6W   70 KT  80 MPH    48H  03/1200Z 21.0N 153.2W   65 KT  75 MPH    72H  04/1200Z 22.9N 158.4W   65 KT  75 MPH    96H  05/1200Z 25.0N 163.0W   60 KT  70 MPH   120H  06/1200Z 28.7N 166.7W   55 KT  65 MPH      $$   Forecaster Powell ","desc":"750 mi E of Hilo 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Storm","name":"Madeline","disc":"After a several hour period where Madeline had a rather ragged   satellite presentation, a burst of deep convection developed near   the center around midnight, and has since persisted with an   abundance of lightning. Latest subjective Dvorak current intensity   estimates from SAB/HFO/GTW were a unanimous 3.0/45 kt, and the   initial intensity for this advisory has been maintained at 45 kt.      The initial motion for this advisory is once again 260/12 kt.   Although Madeline has been moving toward the southwest over the   past couple of hours, guidance indicates that a westward movement   will resume shortly as Madeline is steered by a low- to mid-level   ridge centered to the north and northwest of the cyclone. As   Madeline nears the southwestern periphery of the ridge on days 3   and 4, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The updated   track forecast is near the center of the reliable guidance suite   and the previous forecast, and closely follows the latest HWRF   guidance.      Despite moving over waters sufficiently warm to support a strong   hurricane, the intensity forecast continues to anticipate Madeline   steadily weakening until dissipation occurs on day 5. The primary   factor driving this forecast is moderate to strong southwesterly to   westerly shear supplied by a retrograding upper-level trough now   northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. While SHIPS indicates some   reintensification in the later forecast periods, the official   forecast follows trends presented by the GFS and ECMWF, which   indicate dissipation by day 4.         FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS      INIT  01/1500Z 16.7N 157.0W   45 KT  50 MPH    12H  02/0000Z 16.5N 158.6W   40 KT  45 MPH    24H  02/1200Z 16.5N 161.1W   35 KT  40 MPH    36H  03/0000Z 16.3N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH    48H  03/1200Z 16.3N 166.7W   30 KT  35 MPH    72H  04/1200Z 17.0N 170.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW    96H  05/1200Z 18.0N 174.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW   120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED      $$   Forecaster Birchard ","desc":"155 mi SSW of South Point Hawaii","wind":50,"gust":null,"course":250,"speed":14,"p":1003,"date":1472731200,"tz":"HST","off":-36000},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-156.4,16.9]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":50},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-155.9,17.3]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":60},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-155.1,18.0]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":65},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-154.6,18.3]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":70},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-154.2,18.6]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":75},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-153.6,18.7]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":75},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-153.1,18.9]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":80},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-152.0,19.3]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":90},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-151.5,19.2]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":90},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-151.0,19.2]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":90},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-151.0,19.2]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":90},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-150.9,19.4]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":90},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-150.3,19.3]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":110},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-149.8,19.3]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":110},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-149.4,19.3]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":115},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-148.7,19.2]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":120},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-148.3,19.3]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":120},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-147.7,19.3]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":130},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-147.2,19.1]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":132},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-146.8,19.0]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":125},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-146.3,18.9]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":125},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-145.9,18.7]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":115},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-145.5,18.6]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":115},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-144.6,18.2]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":98},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-143.7,17.8]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":86},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-143.1,17.4]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":65},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-141.9,16.9]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":65},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-140.8,16.3]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":50},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-140.6,16.1]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":60},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-139.3,15.7]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":60},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-138.5,15.2]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":50},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-138.4,14.5]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":50},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-137.4,13.9]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":40},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-136.5,13.3]},"properties":{"id":"EP142016","wind":35},"type":"Feature"},{"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-69.2,38.2]},"properties":{"id":"AL082016","type":"Remnants Of","name":"Eight","disc":"Deep convection is now displaced more than 100 nm east of the   location suspected to be the center of the tropical depression.   However, the 0224Z ASCAT scatterometer overpass showed that the   system has opened up into a trough.  Thus the system is no longer   considered to be a tropical cyclone.  Maximum winds continue to be   around 25 kt, associated with the remnants of the tropical cyclone.      Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas   Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS   header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web   at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.         FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS      INIT  01/0900Z 38.2N  69.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS    12H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED      $$   Forecaster Landsea ","desc":"405 mi ENE of Cape Hatteras North 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Storm","name":"Hermine","disc":"Hermine is gradually becoming better organized, with convective   banding developing over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.   Upper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the northwest of   the storm by a cyclonic shear axis depicted by water vapor   imagery.  The current intensity is set at 55 kt in agreement with   SFMR-observed surface winds from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter   aircraft.  The intensity forecast continues to show Hermine becoming   a hurricane before landfall which is in general agreement with the   numerical guidance.  The global models show Hermine embedded within   a frontal zone by 48 hours, so the forecast shows the system   becoming extratropical at that time.  There is some concern about   the evolution of the post-tropical cyclone later in the forecast   period, since the shear starts decreasing after 72 hours.  This   could allow the system to reacquire some tropical characteristics in   4-5 days, although it is not certain how close to the coast the   cyclone will be by that time.      Based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft fixes and a dropsonde from the   NASA Global Hawk aircraft, the initial motion is estimated to be   030/12 kt.  A mid-tropospheric trough should steer the system   north-northeastward to northeastward for the next couple of days.   Later in the forecast period, a developing mid-level cutoff low near   the northeast United States coast will cause a slowing of the   forward speed as the cyclone interacts with the low.  The official   forecast track is essentially a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF   solutions, with the former model showing a track closer to the   northeast coast and the latter taking the system farther offshore.      KEY MESSAGES:      1. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track.   Hermine is a rather asymmetric storm, with a large extent of   dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains   well to the east and southeast of the path of the center.      2. Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a   frontal system when it reaches the Carolinas over the weekend.  It   is a little early to say what the specific impacts will be for the   mid-Atlantic and northeastern states.         FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS      INIT  01/1500Z 27.4N  86.0W   55 KT  65 MPH    12H  02/0000Z 29.0N  84.8W   65 KT  75 MPH    24H  02/1200Z 31.1N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND    36H  03/0000Z 33.1N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND    48H  03/1200Z 35.2N  76.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP    72H  04/1200Z 38.0N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP    96H  05/1200Z 38.5N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP   120H  06/1200Z 39.5N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP      $$   Forecaster Pasch 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