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@Bemmu

Bemmu/AB test for Candy Japan product packaging

Last active August 16, 2018 12:50
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AB test for Candy Japan product packaging
#!/usr/bin/python
# We send candy shipments in batches in 2 week intervals. Each list here shows which customers received
# each batch, starting from Nov 28th 2015. When a number goes missing, it means that the customer canceled
# their subscription. When a number appears, it means that a new customer joined.
shipping_lists = [
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# Two lists from after the test had just finished, included so that cancellations can be detected.
# It takes about a month for the first shipment to arrive, so need to follow up at least for two
# shipments to see if package design may have caused a cancellation.
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]
# Shows which customers got the new package design. 'A' means new nicer, but more expensive design.
ab_groups = {0: 'B', 1: 'B', 2: 'A', 3: 'A', 4: 'B', 5: 'A', 6: 'A', 7: 'B', 8: 'B', 9: 'A', 10: 'B', 11: 'A', 12: 'B', 14: 'A', 15: 'B', 16: 'A', 17: 'A', 18: 'A', 19: 'B', 20: 'A', 21: 'A', 22: 'A', 23: 'B', 24: 'B', 25: 'A', 26: 'B', 27: 'B', 28: 'B', 29: 'B', 30: 'B', 31: 'B', 32: 'A', 33: 'B', 34: 'A', 36: 'B', 37: 'A', 39: 'A', 40: 'A', 41: 'A', 42: 'A', 43: 'B', 44: 'A', 45: 'A', 46: 'A', 47: 'B', 48: 'B', 49: 'A', 50: 'B', 51: 'B', 52: 'A', 54: 'A', 56: 'B', 57: 'B', 58: 'B', 59: 'B', 60: 'B', 61: 'B', 63: 'A', 64: 'A', 65: 'B', 66: 'B', 67: 'A', 68: 'A', 69: 'B', 70: 'B', 71: 'A', 72: 'A', 73: 'A', 75: 'A', 76: 'A', 77: 'B', 78: 'A', 79: 'A', 80: 'B', 81: 'B', 82: 'B', 83: 'A', 84: 'B', 85: 'B', 86: 'A', 88: 'B', 89: 'B', 90: 'B', 91: 'A', 92: 'A', 93: 'A', 94: 'B', 95: 'A', 96: 'A', 97: 'A', 98: 'B', 99: 'B', 100: 'A', 101: 'B', 102: 'B', 103: 'B', 104: 'A', 105: 'B', 106: 'B', 109: 'B', 110: 'B', 111: 'A', 112: 'A', 113: 'B', 114: 'B', 117: 'A', 118: 'B', 120: 'A', 122: 'A', 123: 'B', 124: 'A', 125: 'B', 126: 'A', 127: 'A', 128: 'A', 129: 'B', 130: 'B', 131: 'B', 132: 'A', 133: 'B', 134: 'B', 135: 'B', 136: 'B', 137: 'A', 139: 'B', 140: 'B', 141: 'B', 142: 'A', 143: 'B', 145: 'B', 146: 'A', 147: 'B', 149: 'B', 150: 'B', 151: 'B', 152: 'B', 153: 'B', 154: 'A', 155: 'B', 156: 'B', 158: 'B', 160: 'B', 161: 'A', 162: 'A', 163: 'A', 164: 'A', 166: 'A', 167: 'B', 168: 'B', 169: 'B', 170: 'B', 171: 'A', 172: 'A', 173: 'B', 174: 'B', 175: 'A', 177: 'A', 178: 'A', 179: 'B', 180: 'B', 182: 'B', 184: 'A', 185: 'A', 186: 'A', 187: 'B', 188: 'A', 189: 'A', 190: 'A', 191: 'A', 192: 'A', 193: 'A', 194: 'A', 195: 'B', 196: 'A', 197: 'A', 198: 'B', 199: 'B', 200: 'B', 201: 'A', 202: 'A', 203: 'B', 204: 'B', 205: 'B', 206: 'B', 207: 'B', 208: 'A', 209: 'A', 210: 'A', 211: 'A', 212: 'A', 213: 'B', 214: 'B', 215: 'B', 216: 'A', 217: 'A', 218: 'B', 219: 'A', 220: 'A', 221: 'B', 223: 'B', 224: 'A', 225: 'B', 226: 'B', 227: 'A', 228: 'A', 229: 'A', 230: 'B', 232: 'A', 234: 'A', 236: 'B', 237: 'B', 238: 'A', 240: 'A', 241: 'B', 243: 'B', 244: 'B', 245: 'B', 246: 'A', 247: 'B', 248: 'A', 249: 'A', 251: 'B', 252: 'A', 253: 'A', 255: 'A', 256: 'B', 257: 'A', 258: 'B', 259: 'A', 260: 'B', 261: 'B', 262: 'B', 263: 'B', 264: 'A', 265: 'A', 266: 'B', 267: 'B', 268: 'B', 269: 'A', 270: 'A', 271: 'A', 273: 'A', 274: 'B', 275: 'A', 276: 'B', 277: 'A', 278: 'A', 279: 'A', 280: 'B', 281: 'A', 282: 'A', 283: 'A', 284: 'A', 285: 'A', 286: 'A', 287: 'A', 288: 'A', 289: 'B', 290: 'A', 291: 'A', 292: 'B', 294: 'A', 295: 'B', 296: 'A', 297: 'B', 298: 'B', 299: 'B', 300: 'B', 301: 'B', 302: 'B', 303: 'A', 304: 'B', 305: 'A', 306: 'B', 308: 'A', 309: 'A', 310: 'A', 311: 'B', 312: 'B', 313: 'A', 314: 'A', 315: 'B', 316: 'A', 317: 'B', 318: 'B', 319: 'B', 320: 'A', 321: 'A', 322: 'A', 323: 'B', 324: 'B', 325: 'A', 326: 'A', 327: 'B', 328: 'A', 329: 'A', 330: 'A', 331: 'B', 332: 'A', 333: 'A', 334: 'A', 335: 'A', 336: 'A', 337: 'A', 339: 'A', 340: 'A', 341: 'B', 342: 'B', 343: 'A', 344: 'A', 345: 'B', 346: 'B', 348: 'B', 349: 'B', 350: 'A', 351: 'A', 353: 'B', 354: 'B', 355: 'A', 356: 'A', 358: 'B', 359: 'A', 360: 'A', 361: 'B', 362: 'A', 363: 'B', 364: 'A', 365: 'B', 366: 'B', 367: 'A', 368: 'B', 369: 'B', 370: 'B', 371: 'B', 372: 'B', 373: 'B', 374: 'B', 375: 'B', 376: 'A', 377: 'A', 378: 'B', 379: 'A', 380: 'A', 381: 'B', 382: 'B', 383: 'A', 384: 'B', 385: 'A', 386: 'A', 387: 'B', 388: 'B', 389: 'B', 390: 'A', 391: 'A', 392: 'B', 393: 'A', 394: 'A', 395: 'B', 396: 'A', 397: 'A', 398: 'A', 399: 'B', 400: 'B', 401: 'B', 402: 'B', 403: 'A', 404: 'B', 405: 'A', 406: 'B', 407: 'B', 408: 'A', 409: 'B', 410: 'B', 411: 'A', 412: 'B', 414: 'B', 416: 'A', 417: 'B', 418: 'B', 419: 'A', 420: 'A', 421: 'B', 423: 'A', 425: 'B', 426: 'A', 427: 'B', 428: 'B', 431: 'B', 432: 'A', 433: 'B', 434: 'B', 436: 'B', 437: 'B', 438: 'B', 439: 'A', 440: 'B', 441: 'A', 442: 'B', 443: 'A', 444: 'A', 445: 'B', 446: 'B', 447: 'A', 448: 'A', 449: 'A', 453: 'B', 454: 'B', 455: 'B', 456: 'A', 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564: 'A', 565: 'A', 566: 'B', 567: 'A', 569: 'B', 571: 'A', 572: 'B', 573: 'B', 574: 'B', 575: 'B', 576: 'A', 577: 'B', 578: 'A', 580: 'A', 581: 'B', 582: 'A', 583: 'A', 584: 'A', 585: 'A', 586: 'B', 587: 'B', 588: 'A', 589: 'A', 590: 'A', 591: 'A', 592: 'A', 594: 'A', 595: 'A', 597: 'A', 598: 'B', 599: 'B', 600: 'A', 601: 'A', 602: 'B', 603: 'A', 604: 'B', 605: 'B', 606: 'B', 607: 'B', 608: 'A', 610: 'A', 611: 'A', 612: 'B', 613: 'B', 614: 'A', 615: 'A', 616: 'B', 618: 'A', 619: 'A', 620: 'B', 621: 'A', 622: 'A', 623: 'B', 624: 'B', 626: 'B', 627: 'B', 629: 'B', 630: 'A', 631: 'A', 632: 'B', 633: 'A', 635: 'A', 636: 'A', 637: 'A', 638: 'B', 639: 'B', 640: 'B', 641: 'B', 642: 'B', 643: 'B', 644: 'B', 645: 'A', 646: 'B', 647: 'B', 648: 'B', 649: 'A', 650: 'B', 651: 'A', 652: 'A', 653: 'B', 654: 'A', 655: 'B', 656: 'B', 657: 'A', 658: 'B', 660: 'A', 663: 'A', 664: 'B', 666: 'B', 667: 'A', 668: 'B', 669: 'B', 670: 'A', 671: 'A', 672: 'A', 673: 'B', 674: 'B', 675: 'B', 676: 'B', 677: 'A', 678: 'A', 679: 'A', 680: 'A', 681: 'A', 682: 'B', 683: 'B', 685: 'A', 687: 'B', 688: 'B', 689: 'A', 690: 'B', 691: 'A', 692: 'A', 693: 'A', 694: 'B', 695: 'A', 696: 'B', 697: 'A', 698: 'B', 699: 'B', 700: 'A', 701: 'A', 703: 'A', 704: 'A', 705: 'A', 706: 'A', 707: 'B', 708: 'A', 709: 'B', 710: 'A', 712: 'A', 713: 'A', 714: 'B', 715: 'B', 716: 'A', 718: 'B', 719: 'A', 720: 'B', 721: 'B', 722: 'A', 724: 'A', 725: 'A', 726: 'A', 728: 'B', 730: 'A', 731: 'A', 732: 'B', 733: 'B', 734: 'A', 735: 'B', 736: 'B', 737: 'B', 738: 'A', 739: 'B', 740: 'A', 743: 'A', 744: 'A', 745: 'B', 746: 'A', 747: 'B', 748: 'B', 749: 'A', 750: 'A', 751: 'B', 752: 'B', 753: 'B', 754: 'B', 755: 'B', 756: 'A', 757: 'A', 758: 'B', 759: 'B', 760: 'A', 761: 'A', 763: 'A', 766: 'B', 767: 'B', 768: 'A', 769: 'B', 770: 'B', 771: 'B', 772: 'A', 774: 'B', 775: 'A', 776: 'B', 777: 'B', 778: 'B', 779: 'A', 780: 'B', 781: 'A', 783: 'A', 784: 'B', 785: 'B', 786: 'A', 787: 'A', 788: 'A', 789: 'B', 790: 'A', 791: 'A', 792: 'A', 793: 'A', 794: 'B', 795: 'B', 796: 'A', 797: 'B', 798: 'B', 800: 'A', 801: 'A', 802: 'A', 803: 'B', 804: 'A', 805: 'A', 806: 'A', 807: 'A', 808: 'B', 809: 'A', 810: 'B', 811: 'A', 812: 'B', 813: 'B', 814: 'A', 815: 'B', 816: 'A', 817: 'B', 818: 'B', 819: 'A', 820: 'A', 821: 'B', 822: 'A', 824: 'B', 826: 'A', 827: 'B', 828: 'A', 829: 'A', 830: 'B', 831: 'B', 832: 'B', 833: 'B', 834: 'A', 835: 'A', 836: 'A', 837: 'B', 838: 'A', 839: 'A', 840: 'A', 841: 'A', 842: 'B', 843: 'B', 844: 'B', 845: 'B', 846: 'A', 847: 'B', 848: 'A', 849: 'A', 850: 'A', 851: 'B', 853: 'B', 855: 'B', 856: 'A', 857: 'A', 858: 'B', 859: 'A', 860: 'A', 861: 'B', 862: 'B', 863: 'B', 864: 'B', 865: 'A', 866: 'B', 867: 'A', 868: 'B', 869: 'B', 870: 'A', 871: 'A', 872: 'A', 874: 'B', 875: 'B', 876: 'A', 878: 'B', 879: 'A', 880: 'A', 881: 'B', 882: 'A', 883: 'B', 885: 'A', 886: 'A', 887: 'A', 888: 'A', 889: 'A', 890: 'A', 891: 'B', 892: 'A', 893: 'A', 894: 'B', 896: 'A', 897: 'A', 899: 'B', 900: 'B', 901: 'B', 903: 'B', 904: 'B', 906: 'A', 907: 'B', 908: 'B', 909: 'A', 910: 'A', 911: 'A', 912: 'A', 913: 'A', 914: 'A', 915: 'A', 916: 'B', 917: 'B', 919: 'A', 920: 'B', 921: 'B', 922: 'B', 923: 'B', 924: 'B', 925: 'A', 926: 'B', 927: 'B', 928: 'A', 929: 'A', 930: 'B', 931: 'B', 932: 'A', 933: 'B', 934: 'B', 935: 'B', 936: 'A', 937: 'B', 939: 'B', 940: 'A', 942: 'A', 943: 'B', 944: 'A', 945: 'A', 946: 'B', 947: 'B', 948: 'B', 949: 'B', 950: 'B', 951: 'A', 952: 'A', 953: 'B', 954: 'A', 955: 'B', 956: 'A', 958: 'B', 959: 'B', 960: 'B', 961: 'B', 963: 'A', 964: 'A', 965: 'B', 966: 'A', 967: 'B', 968: 'B', 969: 'B', 970: 'B', 971: 'A', 972: 'A', 973: 'B', 974: 'B', 975: 'B', 976: 'B', 977: 'B', 978: 'A', 981: 'B', 982: 'A', 983: 'A', 984: 'A', 985: 'A', 986: 'A', 987: 'B', 988: 'B', 989: 'B', 990: 'B', 991: 'A', 992: 'B', 994: 'B', 996: 'B', 997: 'A', 998: 'A', 999: 'A', 1000: 'B', 1001: 'B', 1002: 'A', 1003: 'B', 1004: 'B', 1005: 'B', 1006: 'A', 1007: 'B', 1008: 'B', 1009: 'A', 1010: 'B', 1011: 'A', 1012: 'B', 1013: 'A', 1014: 'A', 1015: 'B', 1016: 'B', 1017: 'A', 1018: 'B', 1019: 'A', 1021: 'A', 1022: 'B', 1023: 'B', 1025: 'B', 1026: 'A', 1027: 'B', 1028: 'A', 1029: 'A', 1030: 'A', 1031: 'B', 1032: 'B', 1033: 'A', 1034: 'A', 1035: 'B', 1036: 'B', 1037: 'A', 1038: 'A', 1039: 'B', 1040: 'B', 1042: 'A', 1044: 'A', 1045: 'A', 1046: 'B', 1047: 'A', 1048: 'B', 1049: 'B', 1050: 'A', 1051: 'A', 1053: 'A', 1054: 'A', 1055: 'A', 1056: 'B', 1057: 'A', 1058: 'A', 1059: 'A', 1060: 'A', 1061: 'A', 1062: 'B', 1063: 'B', 1064: 'A', 1065: 'B', 1066: 'A', 1067: 'B', 1068: 'A', 1069: 'B', 1070: 'B', 1071: 'A', 1072: 'A', 1073: 'B', 1074: 'A', 1075: 'B', 1076: 'B', 1077: 'B', 1078: 'B', 1079: 'A', 1080: 'A', 1081: 'A', 1082: 'B', 1083: 'B', 1084: 'A', 1085: 'A', 1086: 'A', 1087: 'A', 1088: 'B', 1090: 'A', 1091: 'A', 1092: 'B', 1093: 'B', 1094: 'B', 1095: 'A', 1096: 'A', 1097: 'A', 1098: 'B', 1099: 'B', 1100: 'B', 1101: 'A', 1102: 'B', 1103: 'B', 1104: 'A', 1105: 'A', 1106: 'B', 1107: 'A', 1108: 'B', 1109: 'B', 1111: 'B', 1112: 'B', 1113: 'B', 1115: 'B', 1116: 'B', 1117: 'A', 1118: 'B', 1120: 'B', 1122: 'B', 1123: 'B', 1124: 'B', 1125: 'B', 1126: 'B', 1127: 'A', 1128: 'A', 1130: 'A', 1131: 'A', 1132: 'B', 1133: 'B', 1135: 'A', 1136: 'B', 1138: 'A', 1139: 'A', 1140: 'B', 1141: 'A', 1142: 'A', 1143: 'B', 1144: 'B', 1145: 'B', 1146: 'A', 1147: 'B', 1149: 'B', 1150: 'A', 1152: 'A', 1153: 'A', 1154: 'A', 1155: 'B', 1156: 'B', 1157: 'B', 1158: 'B', 1159: 'B', 1160: 'B', 1161: 'B', 1162: 'A', 1163: 'A', 1164: 'A', 1166: 'B', 1168: 'A', 1170: 'B', 1171: 'A', 1172: 'A', 1173: 'A', 1174: 'B', 1175: 'B', 1176: 'A', 1177: 'A', 1178: 'B', 1179: 'B', 1180: 'B', 1181: 'A', 1182: 'B', 1183: 'A', 1184: 'A', 1185: 'A', 1186: 'A', 1187: 'A', 1188: 'A', 1190: 'A', 1191: 'B', 1192: 'A', 1193: 'B', 1194: 'B', 1195: 'A', 1196: 'B', 1198: 'B', 1200: 'B'}
# Exclude people who only subscribed for one month from the test (received only 1 or 2 shipments).
# These churns could not have been affected by box design because of shipping time.
shipments = reduce(lambda a,b:a+b, shipping_lists, [])
from collections import Counter
excluded_customers = [k for k, v in Counter(shipments).items() if v <= 2]
customers = [uid for uid in set(shipments) if uid not in excluded_customers]
# Make a True, True, True, False, False... kind of sequence out of whether a customer received each shipment.
shipment_sequence = lambda uid: [s.count(uid) == 1 for s in shipping_lists]
# "Cancelled" means user receives a package, then afterwards does not.
did_user_cancel = lambda uid: (True, False) in zip(shipment_sequence(uid), shipment_sequence(uid)[1:])
# Now how many cancelled in each group?
for group in ['Overall', 'A', 'B']:
if group == 'Overall':
group_customers = customers
else:
group_customers = [uid for uid in customers if ab_groups[uid] == group]
cancel_count = [did_user_cancel(uid) for uid in group_customers].count(True)
cancel_ratio = float(cancel_count) / len(group_customers)
f = (group, cancel_ratio * 100, cancel_count, len(group_customers))
print '{} cancel ratio was {:.2f}% ({} / {})'.format(*f)
# To get the p-value:
# R -q -e 'fisher.test(rbind(c(439,168),c(442,175)))'
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