BillyONeal/gist:1760b261bdde367279f5f9fcc87dd14f

## gistfile1.txt
Thesis: HSR is squeezed on the short end by driving, and on the long end by air travel.

This discussion makes the following assumptions:
•	Driving average speed is 83km/hr. (100km/hr speed limit with 10 minutes break each hour)
•	HSR average speed is 300km/hr. (ICE Cologne<->Frankfurt’s top speed. There is faster HSR in
the world but I’m also making no allowances for stops. For example, Nozomi Shinkansen Tokyo<->Osaka
is 515km/4 hours or 128km/hr due to 180km/hr top speed but with 17 stops)
•	Flight average speed is 700km/hr. (Chicago->Portland is 4.5 hours to do 2823km) Guess that it
takes 3 hours dealing with getting on or off the plane, security theatre, renting a car, etc. B.S.
at either end.
•	If a trip takes more than 8 hours, people will choose a faster method even if less convenient.
(According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinkansen#Competition_with_air it is observed that air
starts to “win” around 1000km in Japan, or about 5 hours on a Nozomi Shinkansen. I’m giving HSR
benefit of the doubt with 8. Japan is notably a country with good HSR and local transit buildouts)

Using those figures, air wins over HSR for distances greater than HSR can cover in 8 hours, or
2400km. (Which would take air (2400/700)+3 hours or ~6.4 hours) This means that the shortest
coast-to-coast route the author can think of, which is that Portland<->Chicago trip, loses to air.
However, almost all intra-coast journeys fit under this ceiling (Seattle to LA is ~1500km), and
there are a couple of cities in the “middle” that can work, such as connections to Denver (1500km
to SF) or Dallas (2000km to LA, 1100km to Atlanta)

On the short end, HSR needs to either:
•	Be a practical way to make a journey without use of a car, which means good transit on the ends.
Seattle to Portland meets this requirement because both cities have halfway decent transit options,
Columbus to Indianapolis does not because neither city does. Or,
•	Save enough time to make up for changing transportation modes and the hassle of needing to rent
a car or similar at the destination, as would be necessary when using air.
We gave air a cost of this hassle of about 3 hours, but with HSR you need less security theatre
and stuff so let’s call it 2 hours. That gives a floor of ~229km, or ~45 minutes by HSR or 165
minutes driving. Which turns out to work out for lots of stuff…
	Thesis: HSR is squeezed on the short end by driving, and on the long end by air travel.

	This discussion makes the following assumptions:
	• Driving average speed is 83km/hr. (100km/hr speed limit with 10 minutes break each hour)
	• HSR average speed is 300km/hr. (ICE Cologne<->Frankfurt’s top speed. There is faster HSR in
	the world but I’m also making no allowances for stops. For example, Nozomi Shinkansen Tokyo<->Osaka
	is 515km/4 hours or 128km/hr due to 180km/hr top speed but with 17 stops)
	• Flight average speed is 700km/hr. (Chicago->Portland is 4.5 hours to do 2823km) Guess that it
	takes 3 hours dealing with getting on or off the plane, security theatre, renting a car, etc. B.S.
	at either end.
	• If a trip takes more than 8 hours, people will choose a faster method even if less convenient.
	(According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinkansen#Competition_with_air it is observed that air
	starts to “win” around 1000km in Japan, or about 5 hours on a Nozomi Shinkansen. I’m giving HSR
	benefit of the doubt with 8. Japan is notably a country with good HSR and local transit buildouts)

	Using those figures, air wins over HSR for distances greater than HSR can cover in 8 hours, or
	2400km. (Which would take air (2400/700)+3 hours or ~6.4 hours) This means that the shortest
	coast-to-coast route the author can think of, which is that Portland<->Chicago trip, loses to air.
	However, almost all intra-coast journeys fit under this ceiling (Seattle to LA is ~1500km), and
	there are a couple of cities in the “middle” that can work, such as connections to Denver (1500km
	to SF) or Dallas (2000km to LA, 1100km to Atlanta)

	On the short end, HSR needs to either:
	• Be a practical way to make a journey without use of a car, which means good transit on the ends.
	Seattle to Portland meets this requirement because both cities have halfway decent transit options,
	Columbus to Indianapolis does not because neither city does. Or,
	• Save enough time to make up for changing transportation modes and the hassle of needing to rent
	a car or similar at the destination, as would be necessary when using air.
	We gave air a cost of this hassle of about 3 hours, but with HSR you need less security theatre
	and stuff so let’s call it 2 hours. That gives a floor of ~229km, or ~45 minutes by HSR or 165
	minutes driving. Which turns out to work out for lots of stuff…