Chadtech

2020 Prediction Check-in

Hello! I like making predictions and bets. I like measuring objectivity. I view it as a form of self improvement and a way of building self awareness of how well I know things. I write down what I think and what I expect and then follow up with my own records years later to see where my thinking went wrong. Then I try not to be wrong again. When I started doing this, losing would really hurt, but at this point I get a lot of joy from dissecting where I go wrong.

In this document I am going to go over bets and predictions I made that came to completion in 2020. Here are some previous write-ups I have done on previous years of predicting.

• here is my 2019 Prediction checkin
• heres my most recent set of calibration predictions
• heres my 2018 betting market run down
• [heres my

Chadtech

Prediction Market Check-in #2

Hello! I like making predictions. I like measuring objectivity. I like self improvement and self reflection. Thats why I write down what I think and what I expect and then follow up with my own records years later to see where my thinking went wrong. Then I try not to be wrong again. One way I do this (a fun way of doing this) is gambling in prediction markets.

This is document is a summary of my performence in the political betting market during 2019. Here are some previous write-ups I have done on previous years of predicting.

• heres my 2018 betting market run down
• heres my 2017 betting market run down
• heres my most recent set of calibration predictions

This is the point in these check-in write ups where I explain political betting and predictions, but I have alrea

Chadtech

Coronavirus Betting Update

Recap

Back in late February I made a bet with a friend for $101.52 that within 3 years at least 50 million Americans would have the coronavirus. This was at a time when there were 15 confirmed cases in the US. My best guess presently, based off the antibody surveys researchers have done in various US cities, is that so far 22 million Americans have ever had coronavirus. So, there is a lot of confusion and unknowns in the short term, and I havent won yet, but unfortunately it looks like I am on my way to winning my bet.

As I write this, the economy has been in lock down for 2.5 months, and everyone seems to feel like we are on the eve of opening up and returning to our previous lives. Indeed, some people seem to think that we beat the virus entirely. However, when I look at the trends and the number of new cases, I dont see the virus on the brink. I see it at least patiently waiting for us to come back outsi

Chadtech

Important turning points in WWII, and why the axis lost

Last year I read and watched a bunch of history and military tactics material, mostly focused on World War II. I am definitely not an expert, and I dont suppose my thoughts are 100% correct, but I do have a new and improved understanding of WWII and maybe I can summarize it below.

There are two sections below: turning points, and broad strokes. Turning points are single key events that seem to have mattered a lot, and broad strokes are the big qualitative differences between the two sides that seemed to matter.

Turning points

• After the official declaration of war in Europe, there was no combat at all on the western front for roughly 6 months. There was a long and unexpected silence in the initial months of WWII. Military officers on both sides noted that their own side was not prepared to defend itself from attack, and how strange it was for there to be no combat given how vulnerable they were. **Had the French forces rushed an attack after th

Chadtech

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Chadtech

Coronavirus Preregistered Beliefs

What is Preregistering?

Preregistering is when you write down what you believe and what you expect before you go about investigating or researching some kind of question. Its a scientific technique meant to combat bias and flukey results in scientific experiments. The idea is that by writing down what you expect you can evaluate your expectations later on. If, for example, you make a bunch of predictions or hypotheses about the world, and they all turn out to be true, then one of the following would have to be true:

• You have super amazing judgement
• You didnt make challenging enough predictions or hypotheses. You set the bar too low and didnt make any meaningful evaluations about the world
• You are fooling yourself: you didnt get things right but you think you did by interpretting results in a biased way

For scientists, this could mean saying "I think sugar consumption causes heart disease, and I will prove this by seeing if people who have heart disease have a h

Chadtech

Earlier this week I made a $101.52 bet with a friend that there would be over 50 million Americans infected with coronavirus in the next three years. No one else really seems to agree with me. Indeed, my friend said it was plausible but unlikely that even 10 million Americans would get Coronavirus. In this post I would like to argue the liklihood of my side of the debate and respond to counter arguments.

Separately from the bet, there are obviously big negative implications if I am right. If 50 million Americans get it, and it has a 1% mortality rate (which seems to be the current best estimate), that is 500,000 thousand deaths. That is horrible. I dont suppose to know how bad it is among those who dont die, but I wouldnt want to find out personally. If I am right, maybe you should start prepping? I have been prepping for the last month.

When trying to establish the liklihood of any event, it helps to start by establishing the facts of how similar historical events played out:

• Each year the seasonal flu i

Chadtech

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Chadtech

Prediction Market Check-in #1

Hello! I like making predictions. I like measuring objectivity. I like self improvement and self reflection. Thats why I write down what I think and expect and then follow up with my own records years later to see where my thinking went wrong. Then I try not to be wrong again. One way I do this (a fun way of doing this) is gambling in prediction markets.

This is document is a summary of my performence in the political betting market during 2018.

• heres my previous betting market run down
• heres my most recent set of calibration predictions

How does that work?

Chadtech

Kafka cluster ID: Bjmb7iH0QGCtVnIx_EdgTQ

Topics:
	global-events
	Partition	Leader	Replicas	In-sync
			0			1			1,2,3,4,5			5,1,2,3,4
	humio-ingest
	Partition	Leader	Replicas	In-sync
			0			1			1,2,3			2,1,3
			1			2			2,3,4			2,3,4