Changes to the Electoral College

results.md

Changes to the Electoral College

This shows how various scenarios play out in terms of Electoral College vote and the states' percentages of those votes. These are based on current apportionment rules against the 2019 Census estimates, with various House sizes of (the current) 435, 1000, and 5000. Note here that Wyoming, which has 0.18 percent of the population would have 0.51 percent of the representation under the current rules, whereas California, with 12.01 percent of the population would have 10.2 percent of the representation. With a 1000-seat House this would change to 0.35 percent and 11.19 percent, respectively. And with a 5000-seat House, they would be 0.21 percent and 11.83 percent.

This does not take into account the Banzhaf or Shapley-Shubik power indices, which could result in much different anaylses.

State	Population	Pop %	435 #	435 %	1000 #	1000 %	5000 #	5000 %
Alabama	4903185	1.49	9	1.68	17	1.54	77	1.51
Alaska	731545	0.22	3	0.56	4	0.36	13	0.25
Arizona	7278717	2.21	12	2.23	24	2.18	113	2.22
Arkansas	3017804	0.92	6	1.12	11	1	48	0.94
California	39512223	12.01	54	10.06	123	11.16	604	11.84
Colorado	5758736	1.75	10	1.86	20	1.81	90	1.76
Connecticut	3565287	1.08	7	1.3	13	1.18	56	1.1
Delaware	973764	0.3	3	0.56	5	0.45	17	0.33
District of Columbia	705749	0.21	3	0.56	4	0.36	11	0.22
Florida	21477737	6.53	30	5.59	68	6.17	329	6.45
Georgia	10617423	3.23	16	2.98	34	3.09	164	3.22
Hawaii	1415872	0.43	4	0.74	6	0.54	24	0.47
Idaho	1787065	0.54	4	0.74	7	0.64	29	0.57
Illinois	12671821	3.85	19	3.54	41	3.72	195	3.82
Indiana	6732219	2.05	11	2.05	23	2.09	105	2.06
Iowa	3155070	0.96	6	1.12	12	1.09	50	0.98
Kansas	2913314	0.89	6	1.12	11	1	46	0.9
Kentucky	4467673	1.36	8	1.49	16	1.45	70	1.37
Louisiana	4648794	1.41	8	1.49	16	1.45	73	1.43
Maine	1344212	0.41	4	0.74	6	0.54	22	0.43
Maryland	6045680	1.84	10	1.86	20	1.81	94	1.84
Massachusetts	6892503	2.1	11	2.05	23	2.09	107	2.1
Michigan	9986857	3.04	15	2.79	32	2.9	154	3.02
Minnesota	5639632	1.71	9	1.68	19	1.72	88	1.73
Mississippi	2976149	0.9	6	1.12	11	1	47	0.92
Missouri	6137428	1.87	10	1.86	21	1.91	96	1.88
Montana	1068778	0.32	4	0.74	5	0.45	18	0.35
Nebraska	1934408	0.59	5	0.93	8	0.73	31	0.61
Nevada	3080156	0.94	6	1.12	11	1	49	0.96
New Hampshire	1359711	0.41	4	0.74	6	0.54	23	0.45
New Jersey	8882190	2.7	14	2.61	29	2.63	137	2.69
New Mexico	2096829	0.64	5	0.93	8	0.73	34	0.67
New York	19453561	5.91	28	5.21	61	5.54	298	5.84
North Carolina	10488084	3.19	16	2.98	34	3.09	162	3.18
North Dakota	762062	0.23	3	0.56	4	0.36	14	0.27
Ohio	11689100	3.55	17	3.17	38	3.45	180	3.53
Oklahoma	3956971	1.2	7	1.3	14	1.27	62	1.22
Oregon	4217737	1.28	8	1.49	15	1.36	66	1.29
Pennsylvania	12801989	3.89	19	3.54	41	3.72	197	3.86
Rhode Island	1059361	0.32	3	0.56	5	0.45	18	0.35
South Carolina	5148714	1.57	9	1.68	18	1.63	80	1.57
South Dakota	884659	0.27	3	0.56	5	0.45	15	0.29
Tennessee	6829174	2.08	11	2.05	23	2.09	106	2.08
Texas	28995881	8.81	40	7.45	90	8.17	444	8.71
Utah	3205958	0.97	6	1.12	12	1.09	51	1
Vermont	623989	0.19	3	0.56	4	0.36	12	0.24
Virginia	8535519	2.59	13	2.42	28	2.54	132	2.59
Washington	7614893	2.31	12	2.23	25	2.27	118	2.31
West Virginia	1792147	0.54	4	0.74	7	0.64	29	0.57
Wisconsin	5822434	1.77	10	1.86	20	1.81	91	1.78
Wyoming	578759	0.18	3	0.56	4	0.36	11	0.22

source.js

const nextSeat = (seats, pops) => 
  Object .entries (seats)
    .map (([state, seats]) => [state, pops [state] * Math.sqrt(1 / (seats * (seats + 1)))])
    .sort (([, a], [_, b]) => b - a) 
    [0][0] // ideally, use a better max implementation that sort/head, but low priority

const apportion = (total, pops) => {
  let seats = Object .fromEntries (Object .entries (pops) .map (([s, _]) => [s, 1]))
  total -= Object.values(pops).length
  while (total --> 0) {
    const state = nextSeat (seats, pops)
    seats = {...seats, [state]: seats [state] + 1}
  }
  return seats
} 
    
const electors = (
  total, 
  pops, 
  seats = Object .fromEntries (Object .entries (apportion (total, pops)) .map (([n, s]) => [n, s + 2] )),
  min = Math .min (... Object .values (seats))
) => 
  ({...seats, 'District of Columbia': min})

source_report.js

const sum = (ns) => ns.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0)

const disp = (x) => Math.round(10000 * x) / 100

const report = (pops, dcPop, ...sizes) => {
  const totalPop = sum ([dcPop, ...Object .values (pops)])
  const data = sizes .reduce (
    (a, s) => {
      const totalElectors = sum(Object.values(electors (s, pops)))
      return Object.entries (electors (s, pops))
         .reduce((a, [state, e]) => ({
           ...a,
           [state]: {...a[state], [s + ' #']: e, [s + ' %']: e / totalElectors}
         }), a)
    },
    Object .fromEntries (Object .entries (pops) .map(([s, p]) => [s, {population: p, 'pop %': p / totalPop}]))
  )
  console.log(
    `| State | Population | Pop % | ` 
     + sizes.map(s => `${s} # | ${s} % `).join(' | ') + ' |'
  )
  console.log(
    `|-------|------------|-------|` 
     + sizes.map(s => `-------|-------`).join('|') + ' |'
  )
  Object .keys (data) .sort().forEach(state => {
    const e = data [state]
    console.log(
      `| ${state} | ${e.population} | ${disp(e['pop %'])} | `
      + sizes.map(s => `${e[s + ' #']} | ${disp(e[s + ' %'])} `).join(' | ') + ' |'
    )
  })
  return data
}


// from https://api.census.gov/data/2019/pep/population?get=POP,NAME&for=state:*  -- removing DC & PR
const pops = {Alabama: 4903185, Alaska: 731545, Arizona: 7278717, Arkansas: 3017804, California: 39512223, Colorado: 5758736, Connecticut: 3565287, Delaware: 973764, 'District of Columbia': 705749, Florida: 21477737, Georgia: 10617423, Hawaii: 1415872, Idaho: 1787065, Illinois: 12671821, Indiana: 6732219, Iowa: 3155070, Kansas: 2913314, Kentucky: 4467673, Louisiana: 4648794, Maine: 1344212, Maryland: 6045680, Massachusetts: 6892503, Michigan: 9986857, Minnesota: 5639632, Mississippi: 2976149, Missouri: 6137428, Montana: 1068778, Nebraska: 1934408, Nevada: 3080156, 'New Hampshire': 1359711, 'New Jersey': 8882190, 'New Mexico': 2096829, 'New York': 19453561, 'North Carolina': 10488084, 'North Dakota': 762062, Ohio: 11689100, Oklahoma: 3956971, Oregon: 4217737, Pennsylvania: 12801989, 'Rhode Island': 1059361, 'South Carolina': 5148714, 'South Dakota': 884659, Tennessee: 6829174, Texas: 28995881, Utah: 3205958, Vermont: 623989, Virginia: 8535519, Washington: 7614893, 'West Virginia': 1792147, Wisconsin: 5822434, Wyoming: 578759}
const dcPop = 705749 // same source, simply needs different handling.


report(pops, dcPop, 435, 1000, 5000)

usage.js

electors (435, pops)  // Current EC of 538
//=> {Alabama: 9, Alaska: 3, Arizona: 13, Arkansas: 6, California: 60, ..., Wyoming: 3}

electors (896, pops)  // Total EC of 1000
//=> {Alabama: 16, Alaska: 4, Arizona: 23, Arkansas: 11, California: 116, ..., Wyoming: 4}

electors (1000, pops) // Total House of 1000
//=> {Alabama: 18, Alaska: 4, Arizona: 25, Arkansas: 12, California: 129, ..., Wyoming: 4}

x_alternateApportionment.js

// This is cleaner, but could run into recursion limits

// Note that this does not handle the removal of the original 50 seats assigned to each state.
// An update is in https://stackoverflow.com/a/70560879/1243641

const apportion = ( 
  total, 
  pops, 
  seats = Object.fromEntries (Object.entries(pops).map(([s, _]) => [s, 1])),
  state = nextSeat (seats, pops)
) => 
  total <= 0
    ? seats
    : apportion (total - 1, pops, {...seats, [state]: seats[state] + 1})