Roster Settings: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (WR/RB/TE), 1 Kicker, 1 DEF, seven bench spots
You should be flexible in every draft but if things fall according to ESPN ADP, my general plan of attack with a top-two pick is to draft one of the top-two wide receivers available, knowing that I can still anchor my running back spot with a reliable player in Round 2 or confidently load up on wide receivers in the early rounds since PPR scoring enhances a Zero-RB strategy.
In any league, building a fantasy football roster is a race to fill the flex and in full-PPR scoring, I want to have as many high-end wide receivers as possible in my starting lineup each week. This means I expect to start most ESPN PPR leagues with at least three wide receivers through the first five rounds and might continue to hammer the position in the early rounds if I miss out on a sought-after elite tight end or quarterback.
One of the downsides of drafting from the front end of the draft on ESPN is that I am likely to miss out on the uber-elite passers since I am typically unwilling to spend picks 23 or 26 on a quarterback—the top three quarterbacks are currently being drafted in the top-22 picks on ESPN and the QB5 is going at pick 37.
Continue reading for a breakdown of my favorite picks through Round 10 and a list of the best late-round targets at each position.
The hope here is that Justin Jefferson is available since he is the clear 1.01 but if the first drafter goes with the chalk, Ja'Marr Chase is a fine alternative. Chase was the WR5 on a per-game basis in 2022 but dealt with a hip injury for much of the season. When active, Chase is one of the few players in the league that can approach a 30% target share and he does that in one of the most voluminous and efficient passing offenses in the league.
Starting with Chase or Jefferson in a PPR league provides arguably the safest floor-ceiling combination available while anchoring the most important position for elite talent in this format in 2023. Not taking a running back here and having to wait 21 picks until our next selection should provide plenty of information on whether we will comfortably be able to draft a Hero-RB strategy or if a Zero-RB strategy might be viable in a running-back-hungry fantasy league.
My top alternatives: Cooper Kupp, Christian McCaffrey
Update: Tony Pollard has crept up to 15th overall on ESPN since this writing. For drafters that would prefer an anchor running back in the first two rounds, it may be best to consider drafting Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler at the 1.02 and opt for a wide receiver here, as another running back would be a reach here. If Pollard is still here, snatch him up.
Tony Pollard is egregiously mispriced on ESPN and he is one of the main reasons I am comfortable skipping a running back with my first pick. Being drafted as the RB9 on ESPN, Pollard is The Fantasy Footballers' PPR RB6. Pollard currently has little-to-no competition for touches in the Cowboys backfield and even if Dallas were to bring back Ezekiel Elliott, they wouldn’t be paying Elliott the money that they were in recent seasons which compelled them to use Zeke more than necessary.
Pollard ends the running back tier that allows me to draft an aggressive Anchor-RB approach if I prefer, loading up on other positions until Round 6 or later. If Amon-Ra St. Brown or Garrett Wilson (ADPs 20 and 21) were available here, I would go wide receiver and hope Pollard makes it back to me at pick 26.
My top alternatives: DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith
Assuming I take a running back at pick 23 and there are no huge ADP fallers here, this pick should almost always be a wide receiver. Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith, and Chris Olave—who is a steal on ESPN as the WR16—end a wide receiver tier that is above the available running back tier.
Most redraft players have reservations about investing this heavily in one offense this early in a draft but the Bengals have one of the most concentrated passing attacks in the league. Not only is Tee Higgins likely to hit when Chase doesn’t and vice versa, but this offense will typically allow both players to offer starter-level fantasy performances in the same week. In the rare instances where Joe Burrow makes it back to us with our next pick, I’d be willing to go all in on this passing attack.
My top alternatives: DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave
The elite of the elite quarterbacks should almost always be gone by this point of ESPN drafts but Herbert is arguably the only quarterback outside of that tier with true QB1 upside. The Chargers quarterback dealt with injuries to himself, his pass-catchers, and his offensive line for most of the 2022 season, resulting in Herbert performing way below expectation last year.
With Kellen Moore now calling plays in Los Angeles, a healthy wide-receiver corps, and a new first-round wide receiver talent, Herbert’s range of outcomes includes leading the league in passing touchdowns. It doesn’t hurt that he has some unrealized rushing upside as well.
My top alternatives: Justin Fields, Calvin Ridley
If the goal is to use a starter-level wide receiver in our flex, then this pick almost always has to be a wide receiver, given our start. Wide receivers with true high-end WR2 upside should dry up quickly by the time it gets to pick 71 while some viable RB2 types might make it all the way to our 95th pick, especially if the rest of our league has gone running back-heavy already.
Two of the most mispriced players in this range are Diontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin, who The Fantasy Footballers is at least 10 spots ahead of compared to ESPN in terms of PPR positional ADP. Johnson is one of the most obvious touchdown regression candidates of all time and the entire Steelers passing attack has sneaky upside. Even without big touchdown numbers, Johnson’s volume makes him a premier PPR asset and a steal as The Fantasy Footballers' WR17 in the fifth round.
Update 8/22: Terry McLaurin's Week 1 status is in question with a turf toe injury. Consider one of the alternatives if his status is still uncertain at the time of your draft. He remains a top-20 wide receiver in The Fantasy Footballers' rankings for now.
My top alternatives: Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley
The ideal situation here is that we get a sliding Alexander Mattison (ADP 65 overall) but I am willing to slightly reach for David Montgomery at pick 71, knowing that this particular fantasy team is going to be a bit of an RB2 by committee.
Montgomery loses some juice in PPR leagues compared to half-PPR or standard scoring but he is the player archetype I am looking for in this spot. He is guaranteed volume and offers enough pass-catching ability that he won’t automatically come off the field for Jahmyr Gibbs in passing situations. The Lions have decent odds to lead the league in scoring this year (+1400 DraftKings Sportsbook), which should mean significant goal-line work for any of their running backs.
With a player such as Montgomery, who will have a role right away, I can gamble with some ambiguous running back situations in the coming rounds, knowing I can plug Montgomery into my starting lineup early in the season while I wait for other backs to break out.
My top alternatives: James Cook, Tyler Lockett
This is the first roster construction decision that comes down to personal preference. Taking James Cook here is fine since we have to wait 21 picks until our next selection, but I’d rather grab one more starter-level wide receiver, even if he might spend time on my bench.
The consensus on the Falcons' offense is that there will not be enough passing volume to support Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, given their respective ADPs. The counter to that is that Atlanta’s passing volume spiked to nearly 30 attempts per game when Desmond Ridder started last season. With London and Pitts commanding larger target shares, both could approach or exceed 120 targets with that kind of volume. I’m willing to bet on one of the best young wide receivers in recent history.
My top alternatives: James Cook, Brandon Aiyuk
While sharp best ball sites have Jaxon Smith-Njigba being drafted 58th overall as the WR30, the rookie receiver is going more than three rounds later on ESPN. Smith-Njigba’s skillset suggests that he and Tyler Lockett will rotate between flanker and slot while DK Metcalf holds down the X. With Smith-Njigba on the team, Seattle should run many more three-wide sets than they did last season, which will hopefully keep the rookie on the field for at least 70% of plays.
This is the ideal situation to draft a rookie in a potent offense—we don’t have to start Smith-Njigba right away and get to see how the Seahawks offense plays out, hoping that JSN usurps Lockett as the team’s WR2 by fantasy playoff time.
My top alternatives: Brandin Cooks, Jahan Dotson
This is a pick that you should be highlighting, circling, and underlining on your cheat sheets and locking in every league in this portion of the draft. Evidence suggests that Javonte Williams still has an uphill battle to return from injury, even with positive news coming out of training camp.
However, Samaje Perine still offers fantastic value if Williams is ready to go in Week 1. The Broncos already ranked in the top six in running back targets in 2022 and now will have Sean Payton calling plays, one of the most running back-friendly coaches ever. Payton has clearly stated his intentions for Perine’s role and the potential upside is nearly unmatched in this portion of drafts if Williams struggles with his ACL return.
My top alternatives: A.J. Dillon, Brian Robinson
Note: Prioritize Daniel Jones or Geno Smith at the 8/9 turn if you haven’t drafted a quarterback by this point. Jones Analysis/Smith Analysis
Gabe Davis had about as bad of a runout as possible while dealing with an ankle injury last season and finished as the WR39 in PPR scoring. He is now being selected as the WR46 on ESPN, despite being the clear number two on one of the best passing attacks in the league. This feels like a gross overcorrection after Davis was heavily hyped last year. As a primary deep threat, a legitimate ceiling for Davis is something like 60/950/10, or middling WR2 numbers. That is a gamble worth taking with your WR6.
My top alternatives: Tyler Higbee, Rashaad Penny
Late-round picks are largely dependent on how I drafted in the early rounds—strong wide receiver teams will take more late shots at running back while strong running back teams should typically eye more wide receivers toward the end of drafts. Even if I take a late-round quarterback or tight end approach, I’m almost never drafting backups at the onesie positions (QB, TE, DEF, K) since we can always stream those positions.
We’re always hopeful that our late-round “onesies” become every-week starters, but with defense and kicker, I always wait until the last two rounds and usually have an eye on Week 1 streaming options unless an elite option falls to the last two rounds.