COVID-19 simulator

COVID-19.py

import numpy, scipy.integrate, matplotlib.pyplot


pop = 300000000.0
recovery = 0.2
badreco = 0.005
death = 0.001
contact = 0.3

sick = 30000.0
dead = 0.0
recovered = 0.0


def ds(x, y, z, a, b, c, d, e):
    return sum([b * x * (a - x - z - y) / a, -x * e, -x * c, -x * d])


def dr(x, y, z, a, b, c, d, e):
    return x * e


def dd(x, y, z, a, b, c, d, e):
    return x * c


def dv(t, vec, a, b, c, d, e):
    return ds(*vec, a, b, c, d, e), dd(*vec, a, b, c, d, e), dr(*vec, a, b, c, d, e)


times = numpy.linspace(0, 360, 361)


def plot(transm):
    matplotlib.pyplot.clf()
    solution = scipy.integrate.odeint(dv, (sick, dead, recovered), times, tfirst=True, args=(pop, transm, death, badreco, recovery))
    matplotlib.pyplot.plot(times, solution[:, 0], "b", label="Sick")
    matplotlib.pyplot.plot(times, solution[:, 1], "r", label="Deaths")
    matplotlib.pyplot.plot(times, solution[:, 2], "g", label="Recovered")
    matplotlib.pyplot.legend(loc="best")


plot(contact)


matplotlib.pyplot.xlabel("Days")
matplotlib.pyplot.ylabel("Cases")


matplotlib.pyplot.show()