Staking.MD

Reorg stuff

https://www.paradigm.xyz/2021/07/ethereum-reorgs-after-the-merge

https://dune.com/beetle/mev-blocker-stats

https://www.relayscan.io/ https://www.rated.network/relays?network=mainnet&timeWindow=1d https://beaconcha.in/relays

https://www.defiwars.xyz/wars/eth -> Lido has 28% of all stake -> Arguably they have some degree of possibility of getting in 2 Epochs and being malicious

Reorgs https://www.samlewis.me/2022/03/beacon-chain-reorgs/ https://beaconscan.com/slots-forked https://ethresear.ch/t/the-second-slot-itch-statistical-analysis-of-reorgs/16333

https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/bin.html

You need 64 Block Producers in 2 epochs, each probability is 28% (assuming LIDO was one)
Since you need super 2/3 majority (else you get slashed), you need 42 producers which is statistically not possible

TODO: This should be challenged furter

This becomes extremely unlikely but plausible with a 40% stake

Cost of Reorg on ETH2
-> 2/3 -> Else you get slashed
-> So you need 2/3 of the network to agree with you to reorg
-> How do you achieve that?

-> Odds of MEV Boost given current landscape
https://transparency.flashbots.net/

80% chance that the block will be relayed by someone that opted in
20% Chance you don’t even get to perform the operation

4/5 chances you do

https://docs.flashbots.net/flashbots-auction/searchers/advanced/bundle-pricing

Rep + Pricing

Also MEV of You Liquidating vs They Liquidate you

You getting Liquidated is Higher % for Gas
So given same profit scenario it’s best to liquidate you for the Relayer

Liquidate -> 50 | 100k
LiquidateCdps -> 187k

If we assume the same tip then to win the Flashbot Auction the attacker needs to pay a multiple to compensate for the gas being paid

This assuming a few CDPs being liquidated, if we increase the number to 10+ then this cost raises even further

Ultimately liquidating the attacking CDP is the most profitable move

To summarize into some napkin math

The attacker needs to find at least 10 times it's collateral as liquidatable CDPs
To offer the highest premium and not get liquidated they have to offer the highest cut to the relayer (I assume 80%), this means they have to find 50 times their collateral as collateral at risk

This is very unlikely and in this scenario liquidations should be happening due to the sheer amount of leverage