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Generate a full season's worth of pitching Marcel projections from past years' stats
## Generate a full season's worth of pitching Marcel projections from past years' stats
from createTuple import createTuple ## gist: 778481
from writeMatrixCSV import writeMatrixCSV ## gist: 778484
def makePitTable(r):
for stat in ['AB', 'H', 'D', 'T', 'HR', 'SO', 'BB', 'SF', 'HP', 'CI', 'IPouts', 'R']:
if stat in r: pass
else: r[stat] = 0
ab = 0.9*r['IPouts'] + r['H']
if ab == 0:
r['AVG'] = 0
else:
avg = float(r['H'])/ab
r['AVG'] = round(avg, 3)
ip = float(r['IPouts'])/3
era = float(r['ER']*9)/ip
ra = float(r['R']*9)/ip
r['ERA'] = round(era, 2)
r['RA'] = round(ra, 2)
r['IP'] = round(ip, 1)
return r
def marcelPitchingSeason(yr):
# yr = year being projected, input as int
yr = str(yr)
print yr, '...'
yr1 = str(int(yr) - 1)
yr2 = str(int(yr) - 2)
yr3 = str(int(yr) - 3)
## get list of batters; determine which pitchers are really
## 'pitchers' and throw out hitters with pitching lines
projectPitchers = []
for yr in [yr3, yr2, yr]:
yearBatters = {}
for p in batters:
batID = p[0]
if p[1] == yr:
if p[7] == '': continue
else: pass
yearBatters[batID] = int(p[7])
else: pass
for b in pitchers:
pitID = b[0]
if b[1] == yr: pass
else: continue
ipString = b[12]
if ipString == '': continue
else: pitIp = int(ipString)
if pitID in yearBatters:
if yearBatters[pitID] > pitIp: continue
else: pass
else: pass
if pitID in projectPitchers: pass
else: projectPitchers.append(pitID)
## find league average for previous year
yearBatters = {}
for p in batters:
batID = p[0]
if p[1] == yr1:
if p[7] == '': continue
else: pass
yearBatters[batID] = int(p[7])
else: pass
leagueAverage = {}
for b in pitchers:
pitID = b[0]
if b[1] == yr1: pass
else: continue
ipString = b[12]
if ipString == '': continue
else: pitIp = int(ipString)
if pitID in yearBatters:
if yearBatters[pitID] > pitIp: continue
else: pass
else: pass
if pitID in projectPitchers: pass
else: projectPitchers.append(pitID)
for stat in pitHeaders:
col = pitHeaders[stat]
try: playerStat = int(b[col])
except: continue
else: pass
if stat in leagueAverage:
leagueAverage[stat] += playerStat
else:
leagueAverage[stat] = playerStat
for stat in pitHeaders:
if stat in leagueAverage: pass
else: leagueAverage[stat] = 0
totalPa = leagueAverage['BFP'] ## this only works with BDB for years 1903 and later
regression = {}
for stat in leagueAverage:
regression[stat] =(1200.0/totalPa)*leagueAverage[stat]
rawProjections = {}
## generate projections for list of pitchers
for b in projectPitchers:
components = {}
y2ip = 0
y1ip = 0
for stat in pitHeaders:
components[stat] = 0
for row in pitchers:
if row[0] == b: pass
else: continue
if row[1] == yr3:
for stat in pitHeaders:
try: playerStat = int(row[pitHeaders[stat]])
except: continue
components[stat] += playerStat
elif row[1] == yr2:
for stat in pitHeaders:
try: playerStat = int(row[pitHeaders[stat]])
except: continue
components[stat] += 2*playerStat
y2ip += int(row[pitHeaders['IPouts']])
elif row[1] == yr1:
for stat in pitHeaders:
try: playerStat = int(row[pitHeaders[stat]])
except: continue
components[stat] += 3*playerStat
y1ip += int(row[pitHeaders['IPouts']])
else: continue
try:
ggs = components['GS']/float(components['G'])
ipReg = 75 + ggs*105
except:
ipReg = 120
## add regression component
for stat in regression:
components[stat] += regression[stat]
## get projected PA
projIpouts = 0.5*y1ip + 0.1*y2ip + ipReg
## prorate into projected PA
compIp = components['IPouts']
prorateProj = {}
for stat in components:
prorateProj[stat] = (projIpouts/compIp)*components[stat]
prorateProj['IPouts'] = projIpouts
## get age
try: age = int(yr) - int(birthYear[b])
except: age = 29 ## in case birthyear is missing or corrupted
## age adjust
if age > 29:
ageAdj = 1/(1 + ((age - 29)*0.003))
elif age < 29:
ageAdj = 1 + ((29 - age)*0.006)
else:
ageAdj = 1
finalProj = {}
for stat in prorateProj:
if stat in ['G', 'GS', 'IPouts', 'BFP']:
finalProj[stat] = prorateProj[stat]
elif stat in ['W', 'CG', 'SHO', 'SV', 'SO']:
finalProj[stat] = prorateProj[stat]*ageAdj
else:
finalProj[stat] = prorateProj[stat]/ageAdj
## reliability
reliab = 1 - (1200.0/components['BFP'])
finalProj['rel'] = round(reliab, 2)
finalProj['Age'] = age
## add to master dict
rawProjections[b] = finalProj
## re-baseline
projTotal = {}
for pl in rawProjections:
for stat in rawProjections[pl]:
if stat in projTotal:
projTotal[stat] += rawProjections[pl][stat]
else:
projTotal[stat] = rawProjections[pl][stat]
projTotalPa = projTotal['BFP']
projRatios = {}
for stat in ['W', 'L', 'G', 'GS', 'CG', 'SHO', 'SV', 'IPouts', 'H', 'ER', 'HR', 'BB', 'SO',
'IBB', 'WP', 'HP', 'BK', 'R']:
projRatios[stat] = projTotal[stat]/projTotalPa
trueRatios = {}
for stat in ['W', 'L', 'G', 'GS', 'CG', 'SHO', 'SV', 'IPouts', 'H', 'ER', 'HR', 'BB', 'SO',
'IBB', 'WP', 'HP', 'BK', 'R']:
try: trueRatios[stat] = leagueAverage[stat]/float(totalPa)
except: trueRatios[stat] = 0
marcels = {}
for pl in rawProjections:
marcels[pl] = {}
for stat in rawProjections[pl]:
if stat in ['W', 'L', 'G', 'GS', 'CG', 'SHO', 'SV', 'IPouts', 'H', 'ER', 'HR', 'BB', 'SO',
'IBB', 'WP', 'HP', 'BK', 'R']:
if projRatios[stat] == 0:
marcels[pl][stat] = rawProjections[pl][stat]
else:
marcels[pl][stat] = round((trueRatios[stat]/projRatios[stat])*rawProjections[pl][stat], 0)
elif stat == 'BFP':
marcels[pl][stat] = round(rawProjections[pl][stat], 0)
else:
marcels[pl][stat] = rawProjections[pl][stat]
##
header = ['bdbID', 'First', 'Last', 'Year', 'age', 'rel',
'IP', 'ERA', 'RA', 'W', 'L', 'G',
'GS', 'CG', 'SHO', 'SV', 'H', 'ER',
'HR', 'BB', 'SO', 'BAopp', 'IBB', 'WP', 'HP', 'BK', 'R']
marcelSheet = [header]
for pl in marcels:
row = [pl]
row += firstlast[pl]
row.append(yr)
marcels[pl] = makePitTable(marcels[pl])
for stat in ['Age', 'rel',
'IP', 'ERA', 'RA', 'W', 'L', 'G',
'GS', 'CG', 'SHO', 'SV', 'H', 'ER',
'HR', 'BB', 'SO', 'AVG', 'IBB', 'WP', 'HP', 'BK', 'R']:
row.append(marcels[pl][stat])
marcelSheet.append(row)
filename = 'marcel_pitchers_' + yr + '.csv'
writeMatrixCSV(marcelSheet, filename)
pitHeaders = {'W': 5,
'L': 6,
'G': 7,
'GS': 8,
'CG': 9,
'SHO': 10,
'SV': 11,
'IPouts': 12,
'H': 13,
'ER': 14,
'HR': 15,
'BB': 16,
'SO': 17,
'IBB': 20,
'WP': 21,
'HP': 22,
'BK': 23,
'BFP': 24,
'R': 26
}
pitchers = createTuple('bdb_pitching.csv')
## this is the pitcher seasons sheet from the lahman db. headers:
## playerID,yearID,stint,teamID,lgID,W,L,G,GS,CG,SHO,SV,Ipouts,H,ER,HR,BB,SO,Baopp,ERA,IBB,WP,HP,BK,BFP,GF,R
batters = createTuple('bdb_batting.csv')
## this is the batting seasons sheet from the lahman db. headers:
## playerID,yearID,stint,teamID,lgID,G,G_batting,AB,R,H,D,T,HR,RBI,SB,CS,BB,SO,IBB,HP,SH,SF,GIDP,G_old
## master db for birthYear
master = createTuple('bdb_master.csv')
## master biographical data sheet from lahman db. headers:
## lahmanID,playerID,managerID,hofID,birthYear,birthMonth,birthDay,birthCountry,birthState,birthCity,deathYear,deathMonth,deathDay,deathCountry,deathState,deathCity,nameFirst,nameLast,nameNote,nameGiven,nameNick,weight,height,bats,throws,debut,finalGame,college,lahman40ID,lahman
birthYear = {}
for pl in master:
birthYear[pl[1]] = pl[4]
firstlast = {}
for pl in master:
firstlast[pl[1]] = [pl[16], pl[17]]
## sample usage
## marcelPitchingSeason(2005)
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