Reconstruction of model of infections at a large event in the Netherlands, quoted in the Volkskrant on Fri 2021-11-12.

000_readme.txt

* Results
+ Original: VK assumption that vaccinated carry the virus as often as non-vaccinated outside the event.
+ Updated:  vaccinated carry the virus 25% as often as non-vaccinated outside the event (like inside).
|----------+------------+--------------------+------------------+-------------------------|
| Model    | Var.       | Infections         | Hospitalisations | Comments                |
|----------+------------+--------------------+------------------+-------------------------|
| Original | No testing | 833  + 1110 = 1943 | 1 + 20 = 21      | Mine, no VK equivalent  |
| Original | 3G         | 531  +  708 = 1239 | 0 + 13 = 14      | Perfect match           |
| Original | 2G         | 807  +    0 =  807 | 1 +  0 =  1      | ~ match ('800')         |
| Original | Asian VK   | 175  +  155 =  330 | 0 +  4 =  4      | Numbers (~) from VK     |
| Original | Asian mine | 168  +  224 =  392 | 0 +  4 =  4      | Significant difference! |
| Original | 2G + test  | 163  +    0 =  163 | 0 +  0 =  0      | Mine, no VK equivalent  |
|----------+------------+--------------------+------------------+-------------------------|
| Updated  | No testing | 1129 + 1480 = 2609 | 1 + 27 = 28      |                         |
| Updated  | 3G         | 436  +  572 = 1008 | 0 + 11 = 11      |                         |
| Updated  | 2G         | 463  +    0 =  463 | 0 +  0 =  0      |                         |
| Updated  | Asian      | 228  +  298 =  526 | 0 +  5 =  6      |                         |
| Updated  | 2G + test  | 93   +    0 =   93 | 0 +  0 =  0      |                         |
|----------+------------+--------------------+------------------+-------------------------|