gistfile1.txt

Reconstruction of model of infections at a large event in the Netherlands, quoted in the Volkskrant on Fri 2021-11-12.
  https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/waarom-de-coronapas-geen-redding-bracht-en-of-2g-wel-gaat-werken~bb63b508/
  Point of interest: the VK seems to implicitly assume that vaccinated people get infected 75% less often than 
    non-vaccinated people at the event, but not outside.  See what happens when using 25% for both (assumption 2).

Assumptions:
 - number of people at the event:                                         300000.0
 - if vaccinated, relative probability of infection at contact (NL):      [1.   0.25]
 - if vaccinated, relative probability of infection at contact (event):   0.25
 - if not vaccinated, relative probability of infection at contact:       1.0
 - if vaccinated and carrying virus, probability to transmit it:          0.4
 - if not vaccinated, quick test false negatives:                         0.2
 - fraction of vaccinated people:                                         0.75
 - (mean) fraction of people that is carrier of the virus:                0.01
 - if not vaccinated and infected, probability to be hospitalised:        0.0184
 - if vaccinated, relative probability to be hospitalised:                0.05
 - scale factor to get absolute numbers VK (=e):                          2.718281828459045

Carriers per category:
 - fraction of vaccinated people that is carrier of the virus:            [0.01    0.00571]
 - fraction of non-vaccinated people that is carrier of the virus:        [0.01    0.02286]

At the gate:
 - total number of visitors:                                              300000.0
 - number of vaccinated visitors:                                         225000.0
 - number of non-vaccinated visitors:                                     75000.0

 - number of carriers:                                                    3000.0
 - number of vaccinated carriers:                                         [2250. 1286.]
 - number of vaccinated transmitters:                                     [900. 514.]
 - number of non-vaccinated carriers:                                     [ 750. 1714.]
 - number of non-vaccinated visitors rejected:                            [ 600. 1371.]
 - number of non-vaccinated transmitters admitted:                        [150. 343.]

 - fraction of vaccinated transmitters:                                   [54.5 23.1] %
 - fraction of non-vaccinated transmitters:                               [45.5 76.9] %

Admitted:
 - total number of visitors:                                              [299400. 298629.]
 - number of vaccinated visitors:                                         225000.0
 - number of non-vaccinated visitors:                                     [74400. 73629.]
 - fraction of vaccinated people:                                         [75.2 75.3] %

 - total number of carriers:                                              [2400. 1629.]
 - number of vaccinated carriers:                                         [2250. 1286.]
 - number of vaccinated transmitters:                                     [900. 514.]
 - number of non-vaccinated carriers:                                     [150. 343.]
 - fraction of people that is carrier of the virus:                       [0.802 0.545] %

 - fraction of vaccinated transmitters:                                   [85.7 60. ] %
 - fraction of non-vaccinated transmitters:                               [14.3 40. ] %

 - total number of healthy visitors:                                      [297000. 297000.]
 - number of vaccinated healthy visitors:                                 [222750. 223714.]
 - number of non-vaccinated healthy visitors:                             [74250. 73286.]
 - fraction of healthy visitors:                                          [99.2 99.5] %

Infections:
 - number of infections from vaccinated to vaccinated:                    [455. 262.]
 - number of infections from non-vaccinated to vaccinated:                [ 76. 175.]

 - number of infections from vaccinated to non-vaccinated:                [607. 343.]
 - number of infections from non-vaccinated to non-vaccinated:            [101. 229.]

 - number of infections from vaccinated:                                  [1062.  605.]
 - number of infections from non-vaccinated:                              [177. 403.]
 - fraction of infections from vaccinated:                                [85.7 60. ] %
 - fraction of infections from non-vaccinated:                            [14.3 40. ] %

 - number of infections to vaccinated:                                    [531. 436.]
 - number of infections to non-vaccinated:                                [708. 572.]
 - fraction of infections to vaccinated:                                  [42.9 43.3] %
 - fraction of infections to non-vaccinated:                              [57.1 56.7] %

 - total number of infections:                                            [1239. 1008.]

Hospitalisations:
 - number of vaccinated visitors hospitalised:                            [0. 0.]
 - number of non-vaccinated visitors hospitalised:                        [13. 11.]
 - total number of visitors hospitalised:                                 [14. 11.]
 - fraction of hospitalised visitors that is vaccinated:                  [3.6 3.7] %
 - fraction of hospitalised visitors that is not vaccinated:              [96.4 96.3] %