Infection predictions for Germany from 2020-03-23

covid-19-de-predictions.txt

LogitRegressor(beta=0.1980, c=13.4600, max_population=64000000.0)
Day 2020-02-24: 91 (+91) predicted vs 16 in reality
Day 2020-02-25: 111 (+20) predicted vs 18 in reality
Day 2020-02-26: 136 (+24) predicted vs 21 in reality
Day 2020-02-27: 165 (+30) predicted vs 26 in reality
Day 2020-02-28: 202 (+36) predicted vs 53 in reality
Day 2020-02-29: 246 (+44) predicted vs 66 in reality
Day 2020-03-01: 300 (+54) predicted vs 117 in reality
Day 2020-03-02: 365 (+66) predicted vs 150 in reality
Day 2020-03-03: 445 (+80) predicted vs 188 in reality
Day 2020-03-04: 543 (+97) predicted vs 240 in reality
Day 2020-03-05: 661 (+119) predicted vs 349 in reality
Day 2020-03-06: 806 (+145) predicted vs 534 in reality
Day 2020-03-07: 983 (+177) predicted vs 684 in reality
Day 2020-03-08: 1,198 (+215) predicted vs 847 in reality
Day 2020-03-09: 1,460 (+262) predicted vs 1,112 in reality
Day 2020-03-10: 1,780 (+320) predicted vs 1,460 in reality
Day 2020-03-11: 2,170 (+390) predicted vs 1,884 in reality
Day 2020-03-12: 2,645 (+475) predicted vs 2,369 in reality
Day 2020-03-13: 3,224 (+579) predicted vs 3,062 in reality
Day 2020-03-14: 3,930 (+706) predicted vs 3,795 in reality
Day 2020-03-15: 4,790 (+860) predicted vs 4,838 in reality
Day 2020-03-16: 5,839 (+1,049) predicted vs 6,012 in reality
Day 2020-03-17: 7,117 (+1,278) predicted vs 7,156 in reality
Day 2020-03-18: 8,675 (+1,558) predicted vs 8,198 in reality
Day 2020-03-19: 10,575 (+1,899) predicted vs 10,999 in reality
Day 2020-03-20: 12,890 (+2,315) predicted vs 13,957 in reality
Day 2020-03-21: 15,711 (+2,822) predicted vs 16,662 in reality
Day 2020-03-22: 19,151 (+3,439) predicted vs 18,610 in reality
Day 2020-03-23: 23,342 (+4,192) predicted vs 22,672 in reality
2020-03-24: 28,451 (+5,109)
2020-03-25: 34,678 (+6,226)
2020-03-26: 42,266 (+7,588)
2020-03-27: 51,513 (+9,247)  -- somewhat accurate until here
2020-03-28: 62,781 (+11,268)
2020-03-29: 76,512 (+13,730)  -- pretty bad from here
2020-03-30: 93,240 (+16,729)
2020-03-31: 113,620 (+20,380)
2020-04-01: 138,445 (+24,825)
2020-04-02: 168,679 (+30,234)
2020-04-03: 205,495 (+36,816)
2020-04-04: 250,315 (+44,820)
2020-04-05: 304,863 (+54,548)
2020-04-06: 371,230 (+66,366)
2020-04-07: 451,941 (+80,711)
2020-04-08: 550,049 (+98,108)
2020-04-09: 669,229 (+119,181)
2020-04-10: 813,902 (+144,672)
2020-04-11: 989,361 (+175,459)
2020-04-12: 1,201,925 (+212,564)
2020-04-13: 1,459,101 (+257,176)
2020-04-14: 1,769,755 (+310,654)
2020-04-15: 2,144,282 (+374,527)
2020-04-16: 2,594,763 (+450,481)
2020-04-17: 3,135,087 (+540,324)
2020-04-18: 3,780,998 (+645,911)
2020-04-19: 4,550,035 (+769,038)
2020-04-20: 5,461,306 (+911,271)
2020-04-21: 6,535,022 (+1,073,716)
2020-04-22: 7,791,737 (+1,256,715)
2020-04-23: 9,251,217 (+1,459,480)
2020-04-24: 10,930,911 (+1,679,694)
2020-04-25: 12,844,031 (+1,913,120)
2020-04-26: 14,997,360 (+2,153,329)
2020-04-27: 17,388,984 (+2,391,624)
2020-04-28: 20,006,289 (+2,617,305)
2020-04-29: 22,824,631 (+2,818,341)
2020-04-30: 25,807,100 (+2,982,469)
2020-05-01: 28,905,699 (+3,098,599)
2020-05-02: 32,064,000 (+3,158,301)
2020-05-03: 35,221,055 (+3,157,055)
2020-05-04: 38,316,010 (+3,094,955)
2020-05-05: 41,292,711 (+2,976,700)
2020-05-06: 44,103,564 (+2,810,854)
2020-05-07: 46,712,145 (+2,608,581)
2020-05-08: 49,094,309 (+2,382,163)
2020-05-09: 51,237,904 (+2,143,595)
2020-05-10: 53,141,410 (+1,903,506)
2020-05-11: 54,811,915 (+1,670,505)
2020-05-12: 56,262,843 (+1,450,928)
2020-05-13: 57,511,771 (+1,248,928)
2020-05-14: 58,578,524 (+1,066,753)
2020-05-15: 59,483,661 (+905,137)
2020-05-16: 60,247,363 (+763,702)
2020-05-17: 60,888,679 (+641,316)
2020-05-18: 61,425,081 (+536,401)
2020-05-19: 61,872,236 (+447,156)
2020-05-20: 62,243,960 (+371,723)
2020-05-21: 62,552,262 (+308,302)
2020-05-22: 62,807,474 (+255,212)
2020-05-23: 63,018,402 (+210,928)
2020-05-24: 63,192,502 (+174,100)
2020-05-25: 63,336,048 (+143,546)
2020-05-26: 63,454,297 (+118,249)
2020-05-27: 63,551,635 (+97,338)
2020-05-28: 63,631,711 (+80,076)
2020-05-29: 63,697,554 (+65,843)
2020-05-30: 63,751,672 (+54,118)
2020-05-31: 63,796,137 (+44,465)
2020-06-01: 63,832,661 (+36,524)
2020-06-02: 63,862,656 (+29,995)
2020-06-03: 63,887,284 (+24,628)
2020-06-04: 63,907,502 (+20,218)
2020-06-05: 63,924,097 (+16,596)
2020-06-06: 63,937,718 (+13,621)
2020-06-07: 63,948,897 (+11,179)
2020-06-08: 63,958,071 (+9,174)
2020-06-09: 63,965,598 (+7,528)
2020-06-10: 63,971,775 (+6,177)
2020-06-11: 63,976,843 (+5,068)
2020-06-12: 63,981,002 (+4,158)
2020-06-13: 63,984,414 (+3,412)
2020-06-14: 63,987,213 (+2,799)
2020-06-15: 63,989,509 (+2,297)
2020-06-16: 63,991,394 (+1,884)
2020-06-17: 63,992,939 (+1,546)
2020-06-18: 63,994,208 (+1,268)
2020-06-19: 63,995,248 (+1,040)
2020-06-20: 63,996,102 (+854)
2020-06-21: 63,996,802 (+700)
2020-06-22: 63,997,376 (+574)