real_awe_decades.R

library(auseconhist) # remotes::install_github("MattCowgill/auseconhist")
library(readabs)
library(tidyverse)
library(slider)

butlin <- auseconhist::butlin_t7 |> 
  filter(!is.na(awe),
         year >= 1901) |> 
  select(date = year, value = awe, cpi) |> 
  mutate(series = "awe",
         source = "Butlin, Dixon & Lloyd (2014)",
         date = ymd(paste(date, "06", "01", sep = "-")))

awe <- read_awe("awe")
awote <- read_awe("awote")
cpi <- read_cpi()

abs <- awe |> 
  bind_rows(awote) |> 
  group_by(series = wage_measure) |> 
  padr::pad("day") |> 
  fill(value) |> 
  select(date, value, series) |>
  mutate(source = "ABS") |> 
  left_join(cpi, 
            by = "date") |> 
  filter(!is.na(cpi)) 

rw <- butlin |> 
  bind_rows(abs) |> 
  group_by(series, source) |> 
  mutate(real_awe = (value / cpi) * cpi[date == ymd("2010-06-01")]) |> 
  mutate(real_awe_10yago = slide_index_dbl(.x = real_awe,
                                           .i = date,
                                           .f = \(x) x[1],
                                           .before = years(10),
                                           .complete = TRUE)) |> 
  mutate(real_awe_growth = (real_awe / real_awe_10yago) - 1) 


rw  |> 
  filter(series == "awe") |> 
  ggplot(aes(x = date, y = real_awe_growth, col = source)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0) +
  geom_line() +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent,
                     limits = c(-0.2, 0.6)) +
  scale_x_date(breaks = seq(max(rw$date),
                            min(rw$date),
                            by = "-20 years"),
               date_labels = "%Y") +
  theme_minimal(base_family = "Roboto Condensed") +
  theme(axis.title.x = element_blank(),
        axis.title.y = element_blank(),
        legend.position = c(0.5, 0.95),
        legend.direction = "horizontal",
        panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
        plot.caption.position = "plot",
        plot.title.position = "plot",
        plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0)) +
  labs(colour = "Source: ",
       title = "There have been three 10-year periods in which Australian real wages growth was negative",
       subtitle = "Real wages growth over rolling 10 year windows, 1911-2023",
       caption = "Sources: Butlin, Dixon & Lloyd (2014) for pre-1983 AWE and CPI data; ABS AWE (various years); ABS CPI; author's calculations.")

ggsave("real_awe_decades.png",
       width = 20,
       height = 13,
       units = "cm",
       dpi = 300,
       bg = "white")