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@MattCowgill
Created February 19, 2024 00:46
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library(auseconhist) # remotes::install_github("MattCowgill/auseconhist")
library(readabs)
library(tidyverse)
library(slider)
butlin <- auseconhist::butlin_t7 |>
filter(!is.na(awe),
year >= 1901) |>
select(date = year, value = awe, cpi) |>
mutate(series = "awe",
source = "Butlin, Dixon & Lloyd (2014)",
date = ymd(paste(date, "06", "01", sep = "-")))
awe <- read_awe("awe")
awote <- read_awe("awote")
cpi <- read_cpi()
abs <- awe |>
bind_rows(awote) |>
group_by(series = wage_measure) |>
padr::pad("day") |>
fill(value) |>
select(date, value, series) |>
mutate(source = "ABS") |>
left_join(cpi,
by = "date") |>
filter(!is.na(cpi))
butlin |>
bind_rows(abs) |>
group_by(series, source) |>
mutate(real_awe = (value / cpi) * cpi[date == ymd("2010-06-01")]) |>
mutate(real_awe_10yago = slide_index_dbl(.x = real_awe,
.i = date,
.f = \(x) x[1],
.before = years(10),
.complete = TRUE)) |>
mutate(real_awe_growth = (real_awe / real_awe_10yago) - 1) |>
arrange(real_awe_growth)
@MattCowgill
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Screenshot 2024-02-19 at 11 51 34 am

@MattCowgill
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image

@dylanjmcconnell
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Interesting.. if am reading that right, it doesn't look like it is even in the top 10 of of 10 year periods (though obviously a bit of overlap between them there).

Do you have the decade to 2013 value on hand by chance?

@MattCowgill
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-1.5% on the AWE (all employees), 0.0% on AWOTE (full-time employees) @dylanjmcconnell

@dylanjmcconnell
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Thanks - so not even close really. Will pass on to Ross and Rod (unless you have any objections). No idea how they came up with the number

@MattCowgill
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Sure thing @dylanjmcconnell

There are 3 periods in which real wages have fallen: the Great Depression (decade to the mid-30s), the 90s recession (mid-80s to mid-90s) and 2013-2023.

The fact that the past 10 years has anything in common with those two other periods is damning in itself, and makes the point they want to make. But - unless they're using some other data source I'm aware of - the claim that this is the first 10 year period in which real wages have fallen is not correct.

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